USSR invades Ukraine. (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Alan Dugdales Moustache
- Start date
You're an absolute freak. A total creep.
To be fair though, if Ukraine had just rolled over at the start when Russia were heading to Kiev they’d have lost the whole country. Ukraine and the West (whatever the motives) did the right thing to try to repel them.
Putins willingness to throw endless bodies at the war and this being accepted by the Russian public was maybe underestimated though. From what I heard they have lost an estimated 350k soldiers and god knows how many have been injured. In comparison they lost 15k in 10 years in Afghanistan ! Hardly an intelligent strategy but ultimately they’ve got a larger population than Ukraine so eventually if they keep going long enough they’re likely to win
I mean, if you want my considered viewpoint I’d say it depends what you think the aims of the sanctions were. If the aim was to crash the Russian economy and/or effect regime change then they have clearly been unsuccessful. I assume you’d have been extremely opposed to those aims, which is just as well, as it doesn’t appear to have really been the end goal - instead, in terms of slowing down the Russian war effort, isolating Russia on the international stage, and damaging the long-term prospects of the Russian economy to the extent that future Russian expansionism becomes more difficult, they seem to have been relatively successful, if obviously not a knockout. Russia’s near-term GDP prospects are good, thanks to their reserves and the mobilisation of the military industry, but the makeup of their economy looks a lot less sustainable now than it did in 2021, with reserves ticking down, young educated people either leaving the country or going to the frontlines, and their biggest trade partners pivoting more quickly away from fossil fuels. The currency has devalued, infrastructure has suffered, foreign investment has become exponentially more difficult. Ordinary Russians have largely been unaffected (again, I assume you approve of this), and the immediate growth prospects are good, but the difficulties may have been enough to both slow down/interrupt the invasion of Ukraine, and make any future invasions less desirable. The cost borne by ordinary Europeans especially has been horrendous, so you can make a case that the exercise wasn’t worth it (especially if you don’t believe Putin poses a threat to any capitals west of Kyiv). But in such a febrile environment and wild fears of a potent Russian army (some military experts predicted it could take the whole country within two days), a scenario without sanctions may well have ended up with Putin having too much momentum, land and financial power to let Europe feel truly secure, so they decided that was a price worth paying.
(But you don’t really want a considered viewpoint right, you just want to do the spreadsheet thing of how I believed the economists who expected more dramatic damage to Russia’s economy, to which my response is lol the war didn’t take 48 hours, we were all wrong, so what)
Otis
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but I think we can take that with a pinch of salt. I don't think that is ever going to happen.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
You've got to announce the ideal to allow space for the compromise
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I think he’s out of his depth at this point.
It's now very much in Russia’s favour and they’re not going to give up territory that they’ve taken control of.
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Interesting article from a guy who usually commentates on the US economy and why it’s essential that other nato members, especially around Europe, need to start pulling their fingers out and quick
Whether it’s Donald Trump or Joe Biden, Nato’s in trouble
Whether it’s Donald Trump or Joe Biden, Nato’s in trouble
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Russia aren’t going anywhere. The areas they are in control of our now a total wasteland - Russia will only rebuild if they own these territories - it’s clear it’s beyond hope for Ukraine now to achieve their aims (it was never possible) and now it’s time to concede and negotiate
Otis
Well-Known Member
I did think they could take back some of the Donbas, but the Crimea was always a bridge (no pun intended) too far.
If you say so.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
They probably can’t get the ice pick out
It's not new so that makes it alright then.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
So it seems increasingly likely that Ukraine will be at least partly absorbed into Russia at some point. Hopefully the people here who don’t see that as a problem are right and that they don’t voice concerns about any American land grabs in the future.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
How do you envisage Ukraine winning the war, then? Presumably you're in favour of Western troops joining the fight?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
If we’re going back to pre WW2 geopolitics LFG. Move Taiwan to somewhere in Utah en masse then bring it, I reckon we win. Also fuck it lets go back in for Calais, solve the small boat problem once and for all.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Just stopping fucking about and providing enough weapons would be a start. And for the millionth time it’s about making Ukraine strong enough to enter a negotiation without losing their entire country. As well as, you know, decimating a belligerent world powers military using what we’ve got down the back of the sofa.
And there’s a good argument “Western” troops have been in a fight since day one.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It would need a huge tilting of the scales for sure. I just think it’s a really, really shit state of affairs that we’re going to just write away another country’s right to exist in order to appease a madman.
How did it turn out in the late 30s?
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I imagine the failed counter-offensive means that there's scepticism amongst Western countries, even if it's not publicly said. Billions of dollars was put towards weapons for it and it achieved next to nothing; it was supposed to have been the turning point in the war.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
We sided with a madman who was as bad as Hitler
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I mean, that’s war. If people went in expecting certainty that’s on them really. I think what’s really happened is the main backers have had elections and that’s disrupted the flow, plus it took us too long to realise this was a long term thing and start ramping up manufacturing capacity.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
If Joe Biden were comparable to Joe Stalin you’d have a point
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
This may be the first time I’ve seen you say something nice about Biden, knew you’d come round.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Unless he's a big Stalin fan of course
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Where am I?
same age probably