Do you want to discuss boring politics? (183 Viewers)

[Grendel]

Exactly. The same as the people calling Sunak LW are the Tory right.

When Natalie Elphicke is embraced into the Labour Party it’s clear Labour has no left wing at all. She’s left of Farage

 

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[shmmeee]

Two questions:

1) Why is Reform overtaking the tories in the polls?
2) Why is Farage so popular among Tory members?

1) they aren’t yet but wouldn’t be surprised if they did.
Tories have lost swing voters. What’s left is die hard Tories and the rump of the Brexit vote (which is who they’re losing to RefUK)

2) Same reason Corbyn was among Labour members. Because party members tend to be wildly further to the fringe than the public. P

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Also popular with traditional working class Labour voters

Boris Johnson was popular with working class voters and apparently too was Major in ‘92?

The one thing I’m interested in that no one has picked up on here… Is that a leader of a party openly called for NHS to be moved to an insurance model and somehow ‘won’ the debate according to polls. In previous years, politicians would’ve been pilloried for saying this in public and Farage has even shied away from his NHS view (iirc).

That right there could be a watershed moment.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Immigration is single top priority for voters so it shouldn’t be a surprise that a party that says they’re willing to address that is surging in the polls.

The political class has had over 20 years to address the concerns people have had. There’s been complacency that we won’t experience what the like of; the Netherlands, Germany, France and Italy (and others) are going through with their own political realignments.

It was also cowardly that last nights debate only contained deputies with the exception of Farage.

That is wrong as the Plaid Cymru and Green leaders were both there.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

1) they aren’t yet but wouldn’t be surprised if they did.
Tories have lost swing voters. What’s left is die hard Tories and the rump of the Brexit vote (which is who they’re losing to RefUK)

2) Same reason Corbyn was among Labour members. Because party members tend to be wildly further to the fringe than the public. P

On point number 2, how out of step is Farage on public opinion though? Especially on immigration which scores as the most important of issues outside of cost of living. Labour will get a landslide because the electorate rejects the tories, but the electorate is hardly enthusiastic about Starmer unlike Blair. There’s a real risk that they’ve got one parliament to make progress on key issues. The red wall revolted in 2019 and could easily revolt again if they’re let down again.

I was of the believe in 2017 and 2019 that Labour should’ve done a ‘progressive coalition’ to support the Lib Dem’s and Greens v tories seats. I wouldn’t put it past Tory and Reform doing such a pact in the aftermath of a Labour landslide.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

That is wrong as the Plaid Cymru and Green leaders were both there.

Sorry, who?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Sorry, who?

Why don’t they matter the same as Con Man UK?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

He was until he fudged the Brexit debate

Maybe, but that's why Corbyn was never a leader, more an activist isn't it.

Get someone leftish with leadership skills and charisma (something else Corbyn lacked - ironic he was the one who won when at least McDonnell was decisive and had a certain charisma, and Abbott until recently had a certain intellectual gravitas in there), add in a 2017-ish manifesto, and such a party would do fairly well.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Why don’t they matter the same as Con Man UK?

A quick look at the polls should tell you. A debate with Starmer, Sunak, Farage and Davey is debate the public want to see.

With Plaid and SNP, there’s no point in having them on national election debates as they only field candidates in Wales and Scotland respectively.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

A quick look at the polls should tell you. A debate with Starmer, Sunak, Farage and Davey is debate the public want to see.

With Plaid and SNP, there’s no point in having them on national election debates as they only field candidates in Wales and Scotland respectively.

And the Green Party doesn’t count why exactly?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

And the Green Party?

Personally, no. They’re on 7% in the polls and it looks silly having 5 candidates to go through.

At least the Lib Dem’s are forecast to get 30-40 seats.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Personally, no. They’re on 7% in the polls and it looks silly having 5 candidates to go through.

At least the Lib Dem’s are forecast to get 30-40 seats.

Whatever the case, you said it was a shame only the snake oil salesman was there as a party leader. He wasn’t, there were two others.

Let’s not forget either that Farage only jumped in as leader after being called a chicken on Question Time last week.

 

[shmmeee]

On point number 2, how out of step is Farage on public opinion though? Especially on immigration which scores as the most important of issues outside of cost of living. Labour will get a landslide because the electorate rejects the tories, but the electorate is hardly enthusiastic about Starmer unlike Blair. There’s a real risk that they’ve got one parliament to make progress on key issues. The red wall revolted in 2019 and could easily revolt again if they’re let down again.

I was of the believe in 2017 and 2019 that Labour should’ve done a ‘progressive coalition’ to support the Lib Dem’s and Greens v tories seats. I wouldn’t put it past Tory and Reform doing such a pact in the aftermath of a Labour landslide.

Very. People moan about immigration in the abstract but care far more about getting a GP appointment or the economy.

When you dig into the data the public isn’t actually concretely anti immigration. They don’t want universities closing and fees going up and generally support foreign students. They don’t want care costs and NHS waiting times up so are generally pro immigration there. They are happy with us bringing in “the best” so most economic migration gets a pass.

Where the British public really don’t like immigration is where they think people aren’t playing by the rules (so mostly people on boats who they see as short circuiting the system). But in reality they are a tiny amount and as the Tories have found out actually pretty hard to stop by the ways that the head bangers like (be mean to them).

But consistently in polling the same people who say they want less immigration can’t point to a group of immigrants outside of those on dinghies that they want to stop coming in.

This is why the likes of Farage do well in abstract forms like debates where rhetoric matters but badly in concrete forms like actual policy.

There’s also the fact that his big policy win (Brexit) is generally seen as a failure by the public and those who don’t see it as that are dying off.

The Tories and Reform are finding that the limit of their headbanger support is around 30% which just isn’t enough to win a majority.

The tories aren’t all grumpy pensioners, there’s a lot of socially liberal Tory voters and those that want to just make money and be left alone. And thankfully we don’t have the absolute clusterfuck of a media and electoral system that got Trump elected (who is likely to be Farages go to template for a campaign).

If Farage took over the Tories there would be an exodus of members and voters outside of the Brexit Pensioner vote. And you can’t get elected with that membership structure or voting base. You need the people who just want their bins collected and the trains to run on time.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Whatever the case, you said it was a shame only the snake oil salesman was there as a party leader. He wasn’t, there were two others.

Let’s not forget either that Farage only jumped in as leader after being called a chicken on Question Time last week.

You caught me out on a technicality, well done. I’d be surprised if you didn’t realise I was in about the leaders that will actually impact the election; Sunak, Starmer and I’ll throw in Ed Davey for good measure.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Whatever the case, you said it was a shame only the snake oil salesman was there as a party leader. He wasn’t, there were two others.

Let’s not forget either that Farage only jumped in as leader after being called a chicken on Question Time last week.

The Reform website still has Tice as leader. With attention to detail like that, who could wait for them in charge of the country's finances.

 

[shmmeee]

You caught me out on a technicality, well done. I’d be surprised if you didn’t realise I was in about the leaders that will actually impact the election; Sunak, Starmer and I’ll throw in Ed Davey for good measure.

Even the most generous poll doesn’t predict more than a few seats for RefUK. Green levels.

 

[Ashdown]

Boris Johnson was popular with working class voters and apparently too was Major in ‘92?

The one thing I’m interested in that no one has picked up on here… Is that a leader of a party openly called for NHS to be moved to an insurance model and somehow ‘won’ the debate according to polls. In previous years, politicians would’ve been pilloried for saying this in public and Farage has even shied away from his NHS view (iirc).

That right there could be a watershed moment.

There is something very wrong with the NHS when for the same operation, you can be offered an 18 month wait OR with the very same consultant / surgeon , if you are prepared to stump up a shed load of cash you can get slotted in within a couple of months…..very often using the very same NHS operating theatres and equipment

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You caught me out on a technicality, well done. I’d be surprised if you didn’t realise I was in about the leaders that will actually impact the election; Sunak, Starmer and I’ll throw in Ed Davey for good measure.

The Greens should be looking at a similar number of seats to Reform and at least have a sitting MP in the current Parliament. Might well be good for a million plus votes-it’s not irrelevant to have them there.

Seriously considering a vote for them here anyway

 

[Deleted member 5849]

The Greens should be looking at a similar number of seats to Reform and at least have a sitting MP in the current Parliament. Might well be good for a million plus votes-it’s not irrelevant to have them there.

Seriously considering a vote for them here anyway

Green have nearly 800 councillors, Reform have 10. Havering Residents Association are more of a political force at present.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Green have nearly 800 councillors, Reform have 10.

Not as important. The public want to see Farage arguing for racial profiling in ethnically diverse areas.

 

[clint van damme]

Boris Johnson was popular with working class voters and apparently too was Major in ‘92?

The one thing I’m interested in that no one has picked up on here… Is that a leader of a party openly called for NHS to be moved to an insurance model and somehow ‘won’ the debate according to polls. In previous years, politicians would’ve been pilloried for saying this in public and Farage has even shied away from his NHS view (iirc).

That right there could be a watershed moment.

Let's see how anyone advocating an insurance based system for health care gets on.
And the more votes Farage gets, the more this will come under scrutiny and the more his nonsense will be exposed.
I've already seen a couple of his assertions regarding an insurance e based system been taken apart and of course we all know that when Farage is advocating for an insurance based system what he really means is an American style insurance based system.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Let's see how anyone advocating an insurance based system for health care gets on.
And the more votes Farage gets, the more this will come under scrutiny and the more his nonsense will be exposed.
I've already seen a couple of his assertions regarding an insurance e based system been taken apart and of course we all know that when Farage is advocating for an insurance based system what he really means is an American style insurance based system.

He hasn’t got a plan though, has he? He’s just outlined that France’s NHS (carefully crafted sentence) gets better outcomes. There’s no detailed policy program because he isn’t going to be in a position where he’s in government in July 5th. His goal this election is to ruin the tories.

Clint, social insurance systems and the US model are not the same and you saying ‘Farage said this but actually he means that’ is just moving the goalposts. That’s not what he said. Farage is a Francophile so it comes as no surprise he’s looked at their system for inspiration. It’s probably the most palatable way to sell his message to public.

The point I’m making that a politician has attacked the NHS which is considered ‘sacrosanct’ by the public and the watching public decided he won the debate. Which is interesting.

 

[clint van damme]

He hasn’t got a plan though, has he? He’s just outlined that France’s NHS (carefully crafted sentence) gets better outcomes. There’s no detailed policy program because he isn’t going to be in a position where he’s in government in July 5th. His goal this election is to ruin the tories.

Clint, social insurance systems and the US model are not the same and you saying ‘Farage said this but actually he means that’ is just moving the goalposts. That’s not what he said. Farage is a Francophile so it comes as no surprise he’s looked at their system for inspiration. It’s probably the most palatable way to sell his message to public.

The point I’m making that a politician has attacked the NHS which is considered ‘sacrosanct’ by the public and the watching public decided he won the debate. Which is interesting.

You've not read my post, I know the American and French models aren't the same, but he's not going to go in feet first and say let's move to an American based model.
Like all those who want that type of system, (due to the 'incentives' they'll receive), they'll do it by stealth.
Getting reform on the agenda is the first step.
His opinions on the NHS are largely being ignored because of other opinions he holds, particularly concerning immigration, being popular. The more success he has the more scrutiny everything he says will get.

 

[shmmeee]

Like Trump he’ll do whatever the people signing the cheques want so it would be full on US style. Still enough useful idiots to help them out sadly.

 

[Grendel]

Maybe, but that's why Corbyn was never a leader, more an activist isn't it.

Get someone leftish with leadership skills and charisma (something else Corbyn lacked - ironic he was the one who won when at least McDonnell was decisive and had a certain charisma, and Abbott until recently had a certain intellectual gravitas in there), add in a 2017-ish manifesto, and such a party would do fairly well.

I agree on McDonnell

 

[Grendel]

Like Trump he’ll do whatever the people signing the cheques want so it would be full on US style. Still enough useful idiots to help them out sadly.

Bit like people voting for Starmer and claiming he is left wing I guess

 

[CCFCSteve]

Can’t knock that if true.

Happy to keep a second house though but need to change make up of it. Also remove non attendees below certain threshold

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You've not read my post, I know the American and French models aren't the same, but he's not going to go in feet first and say let's move to an American based model.
Like all those who want that type of system, (due to the 'incentives' they'll receive), they'll do it by stealth.
Getting reform on the agenda is the first step.
His opinions on the NHS are largely being ignored because of other opinions he holds, particularly concerning immigration, being popular. The more success he has the more scrutiny everything he says will get.

I read and understand that but it’s typical paranoia around the subject that is blocking rational debate on healthcare reform. Every time there’s a reform, from New Labour (and probably before) to date, it’s ‘privatisation by stealth’ whenever the solution is not just giving more money. It’s easier for politicians to avoid reforming it for an easy life.

We’re not the only country that has a universal, free healthcare system. The NHS is not unique in this regard.

If the NHS doesn’t reform, there won’t be one in the future. Even Labour accepts that.

 

[chiefdave]

Another campaign relaunch incoming?

 

[Skybluekyle]

Another campaign relaunch incoming?

(Checks weather for rain)

 

[clint van damme]

I read and understand that but it’s typical paranoia around the subject that is blocking rational debate on healthcare reform. Every time there’s a reform, from New Labour (and probably before) to date, it’s ‘privatisation by stealth’ whenever the solution is not just giving more money. It’s easier for politicians to avoid reforming it for an easy life.

We’re not the only country that has a universal, free healthcare system. The NHS is not unique in this regard.

If the NHS doesn’t reform, there won’t be one in the future. Even Labour accepts that.

Paranoia

He's got form for this.
He was trotting out the same bollocks for UKIP and then got caught on video advocating for an American style system.

And it is stunts like that that block rational debate because everyone knows its a front for something more sinister.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Paranoia

He's got form for this.
He was trotting out the same bollocks for UKIP and then got caught on video advocating for an American style system.

And it is stunts like that that block rational debate because everyone knows its a front for something more sinister.

There’s a difference between your personal views and what you get elected to do. Thatcher admitted she wanted to introduce charges for hospital stays and GP visits but didn’t introduce it because she campaigned specifically not to do.

 

[SBAndy]

There’s a difference between your personal views and what you get elected to do. Thatcher admitted she wanted to introduce charges for hospital stays and GP visits but didn’t introduce it because she campaigned specifically not to do.

And Farage campaigned for a ‘Norway-style’ deal regarding Brexit, but when the vote came in it was hard Brexit or nothing. Certainly can’t take him at his word.

 

[clint van damme]

There’s a difference between your personal views and what you get elected to do. Thatcher admitted she wanted to introduce charges for hospital stays and GP visits but didn’t introduce it because she campaigned specifically not to do.

He was a UKIP MP going against their policy. Of course that's pretty much how he turned the party from what it was formed to do in to the vehicle it was for his personal crusade.
And thats the weakest defence of him I've heard yet.
You cannot have a rational debate about reform of the NHS when Wolves like Farage and his backers are hovering.

You need politicians whose motivation is the best heathcare possible for the public, that's is 100 percent not Farages motivation in anything he does.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There’s a difference between your personal views and what you get elected to do. Thatcher admitted she wanted to introduce charges for hospital stays and GP visits but didn’t introduce it because she campaigned specifically not to do.

She didn’t keep her homophobic views from passing such legislation mind you.