Do you want to discuss boring politics? (66 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

And the winter fuel payment was half that and yet keeping it would have crashed the economy.

Not quite Malcolm, the programmes would have similar overall cost. Point being we should have both while phasing out the WFP in favour of insulating the homes of the elderly.

 

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[MalcSB]

Prison isn’t working for women, Labour says, as it unveils plans for alternatives

Shabana Mahmood tells conference she wants more help in community for offenders and fewer cases going to court

www.theguardian.com

I wonder how this will be abused.

 

[MalcSB]

Not quite Malcolm, the programmes would have similar overall cost. Point being we should have both while phasing out the WFP in favour of insulating the homes of the elderly.

Shmmeee posted a paper showing the cost for universal free school meals at £2.5bn to which would have to be added some cost for the breakfasts. The winter fuel payment was £1.5bn.

I am happy to agree with your last sentence.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Shmmeee posted a paper showing the cost for universal free school meals at £2.5bn to which would have to be added some cost for the breakfasts. The winter fuel payment was £1.5bn.

I am happy to agree with your last sentence.

The government spends over £2 billion on the WFP programme each year. The £1.4 billion represents the saving from going to a means tested programme, not the total cost.

 

[MalcSB]

The government spends over £2 billion on the WFP programme each year. The £1.4 billion represents the saving from going to a means tested programme, not the total cost.

So universal free lunches and breakfast clubs would cost twice what has been saved from the winter fuel allowance.

 

[CCFCSteve]

It would amount to under 0.25% of government spending.

It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable

The last part of this I agree entirely. They painted themselves into a corner on this when really they would have won a majority anyway.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It would amount to under 0.25% of government spending.

Government debt is just as large as GDP which is a trend that just can’t continue to keep growing.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Government debt is just as large as GDP which is a trend that just can’t continue to keep growing.

How many countries worldwide operate a balanced budget or a surplus?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

How many countries worldwide operate a balanced budget or a surplus?

This is day to day government spending. Around 7 countries (8 including UK) have a GDP to debt ratio above 100%. This impacts the cost of borrowing money so all of these spending commitments come with a hidden cost of servicing debt. For context, in 2023 the Government spent £110bn on servicing debt (interest) alone.

Either way, we seen how markets can react when a government announces plenty of unfunded spending commitments under Liz Truss. The energy cap coupled with tax cuts shook confidence. It showed that the next Government cannot just commit to loads of spending plans willy nilly without retribution from the markets.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

This is day to day government spending. Around 7 countries (8 including UK) have a GDP to debt ratio above 100%. This impacts the cost of borrowing money so all of these spending commitments come with a hidden cost of servicing debt. For context, in 2023 the Government spent £110bn on servicing debt (interest) alone.

Either way, we seen how markets can react when a government announces plenty of unfunded spending commitments under Liz Truss. The energy cap coupled with tax cuts shook confidence. It showed that the next Government cannot just commit to loads of spending plans willy nilly without retribution from the markets.

I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.

In isolation, no of course not. That wasn’t the point and you know full well it wasn’t.

It is clear that you don’t really see a limit to government spending so every issue be it the NHS, public sector pay rises, pensions, winter fuel allowance, education, free school meals can be done away with just more government spending.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I would humbly invite you to take responsibility for your own problems and don’t blame a previous generation.

Nah that’s one of the problems we all have a perspective that working together we can solve so much more than apart

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Prison isn’t working for women, Labour says, as it unveils plans for alternatives

Shabana Mahmood tells conference she wants more help in community for offenders and fewer cases going to court

www.theguardian.com

I wonder how this will be abused.

View attachment 38628

It’s exactly the same for men for very similar reasons

 

[MalcSB]

I don’t think school meals will send the market spiralling like Trussonomics did.

Reeves and latterly Starmer reckoned continuing with the winter fuel payments would have.

 

[MalcSB]

It’s exactly the same for men for very similar reasons

TBH that wasn’t the point I was trying to make. As an aside, apparently trans women are already skewing female crime statistics.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

TBH that wasn’t the point I was trying to make. As an aside, apparently trans women are already skewing female crime statistics.

I’m sure
In the prison estate trans females are in male prisons

 

[MalcSB]

Starmers conferance keynote is going well, this definitely won't be the only part anyone shares and remembers

 

[Ring Of Steel]

And the winter fuel payment was half that and yet keeping it would have crashed the economy.

We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.

 

[MalcSB]

We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.

I explained why I’m angry about the way they have done it in the same post as saying it is not a particular financial problem to me personally.

That isn’t service to self.

 

[Grendel]

We get it, you’re annoyed at the WFP going- despite saying you didn’t really need it. Always service to self.

I can’t see how that’s a service to self. Who is “we”? Are they two of you logging in?

 

[MalcSB]

I can’t see how that’s a service to self. Who is “we”? Are they two of you logging in?

I’m not sure some people understand the concept of taking a stand on principle despite the issue not having a significant personal impact.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

I’m not sure some people understand the concept of taking a stand on principle despite the issue not having a significant personal impact.

well seeing as you’ve seemingly written off anyone who’s suffered with depression & anxiety as ‘woke’, I’m not sure you’re in a position to make statements like that.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

In isolation, no of course not. That wasn’t the point and you know full well it wasn’t.

It is clear that you don’t really see a limit to government spending so every issue be it the NHS, public sector pay rises, pensions, winter fuel allowance, education, free school meals can be done away with just more government spending.

My argument for FSM is that, for the modest cost, it is a high impact policy that would have a good number of benefits.

 

[fernandopartridge]

What’s the explanation for the shorter American kids?

It is tiny in the grand scheme of things, so is the WFP, so’s removing two child benefit cap which many wanted, so’a pay rises for docs and train drivers (which has opened a can of worms elsewhere - see nurses, who out of all of them deserved the better rises), so’s continuing to support Ukraine, so’s housing tens of thousands of migrants in hotels, so is sorting out the massive social care issue in the country etc etc They all add up though

What isn’t such a small share is the cost of servicing the government debt which will continue to be a larger proportion of GDP unless we get some more substantial growth into the economy

These are all tough political decisions/ choices with their own pros and cons in terms of costs and benefit. Said it before and I’ll say it again, the governments biggest mistake was ruling out rises to the main tax generators….should’ve just undone NIC cut, said it’s needed for social care and blamed the Tories for it being unfunded, however, would’ve taken balls and probably politically unpalatable

'Servicing debt' = giving value to private sector investments like pension funds. Spending on improving services does grow the economy? Every penny spent by the government is money paid into the private sector. Where is the growth going to come from if not the government? Credit creation by private banks?

Anyway, the costing of FSM and WFP is very simplistic, it doesn't account for the savings made elsewhere, particularly in relation to the latter. For any elderly person that has a hospital stay that might have been avoided had they been in a properly heated home, the costs of that will have paid their WFP many many times over.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

My argument for FSM is that, for the modest cost, it is a high impact policy that would have a good number of benefits.

Noted, but you more or less make the same argument for many issues and the costs tally up. You either accept there’s a limit to public spending or not.

£110bn in servicing debt and that will only increase with an increased deficit fueled by borrowing. The NHS budget, just to contrast, was £181.7bn in 2022/23.

That’s massive and with little economic growth it’s an unsustainable settlement.

 

[MalcSB]

'Servicing debt' = giving value to private sector investments like pension funds. Spending on improving services does grow the economy? Every penny spent by the government is money paid into the private sector. Where is the growth going to come from if not the government? Credit creation by private banks?

Anyway, the costing of FSM and WFP is very simplistic, it doesn't account for the savings made elsewhere, particularly in relation to the latter. For any elderly person that has a hospital stay that might have been avoided had they been in a properly heated home, the costs of that will have paid their WFP many many times over.

How very, very true your last sentence is. If only there had been a proper impact assessment carried out.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Noted, but you more or less make the same argument for many issues and the costs tally up. You either accept there’s a limit to public spending or not.

£110bn in servicing debt and that will only increase with an increased deficit fueled by borrowing. The NHS budget, just to contrast, was £181.7bn in 2022/23.

That’s massive and with little economic growth it’s an unsustainable settlement.

I have not said that the government has infinite funds, but many spending decisions are a political choice rather than a financial necessity. There is also the case that some spending decisions could have an up front hit, but make financial sense in the longer term-see house insulation as one such example.

In my view education and healthcare should be the top national priorities and my views on spending are pretty consistent with that.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I have not said that the government has infinite funds, but many spending decisions are a political choice rather than a financial necessity. There is also the case that some spending decisions could have an up front hit, but make financial sense in the longer term-see house insulation as one such example.

In my view education and healthcare should be the top national priorities and my views on spending are pretty consistent with that.

The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.

If it had infinite funds wouldn’t it just clear its debts overnight?

 

[fernandopartridge]

If it had infinite funds wouldn’t it just clear its debts overnight?

It can do that if it wishes to yes, nobody in their right mind would want no goverment debt mind you as it represents private sector savings.

 

[wingy]

It can do that if it wishes to yes, nobody in their right mind would want no goverment debt mind you as it represents private sector savings.

Like paying down the mortgage or clearing it completely?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The government does have infinite funds. It just needs to control inflation risk resulting from spending it.

So it doesn’t have infinite funds then. Inflation, economic confidence, debt burden are all limitations and you know this.

One of the many reasons our inflation is stickier than our counterparts is our public spending and debt.

 

[fernandopartridge]

One of the many reasons our inflation is stickier than our counterparts is our public spending and debt.

Explain how public debt fuels inflation.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Like paying down the mortgage or clearing it completely?

What's the most reliable, rock solid, guaranteed to be repaid investment you can buy?