Do you want to discuss boring politics? (18 Viewers)

[CCFCSteve]

You're essentially saying that the household gains from lower interest rates will be offset by the 'soft labour market'. Great.

Yep. Sorry. BoE appear to be concerned about a potential slowing of the economy and a softening of the labour market hence willingness to cut. Just hope we don’t get a double whammy of inflation moving/staying higher than hoped and a weakening economy !

One positive is that BoEs forecasts have changed regularly and by quite lot over the past couple of years so who knows

 

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[shmmeee]

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

bsky.app

Beyond me TBH

 

[fernandopartridge]

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

bsky.app

Beyond me TBH

It's all a bit weird, as I said earlier the sequencing of events is falling apart and it feels like they're trying to maintain the illusion that monetary policy is controlling inflation.

Underlying it all imo is that the UK needs to get control of its energy supply, the current market provision is far too volatile.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

bsky.app

Beyond me TBH

I might be wrong but think he’s saying BoE believe we’re weaker now/going to be weaker in the shorter term but maybe a bit stronger in the medium term. As I mentioned before, not sure Id hang my hat on the BoE forecasts though, there’s so many variables outside their and even UK governments control

 

[wingy]

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

bsky.app

Beyond me TBH

Yet the BOE have been out of step with all other central banks??

 

[MalcSB]

Chris Giles (@chrisgiles.ft.com)

If I told you that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecasts yesterday, would you believe me? It did.... i HAvE nOt gOne CRazY - honest This is a hill I am prepared to die on - the BoE and others (all central banks, IMF, OECD etc etc) report their "forecasts" in a terrible way 🧵

bsky.app

Beyond me TBH

I thought you didn’t agree with people getting their headlines from X / Twitter

 

[MalcSB]

A labour council planning to block redevelopment of a brown field site for housing. Dear oh dear, what will Keir, Angie and Rachel do about that.

Let assume nothing and permit development of the green belt and then throw the book at boomer nimbys protests and legal actions.

Coventry factory closes for good as firm returns to Sweden

The city council is considering a move to help redevelop the site

www.coventrytelegraph.net

 

[shmmeee]

I thought you didn’t agree with people getting their headlines from X / Twitter

I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.

 

[MalcSB]

I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.

On the face of it a good rationale, although you have previously included the FT in a list of publications that you criticised me for using as source material.

My takeaway if that any source is fine as long as the content is in some way supportive of this Labour government.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

On the face of it a good rationale, although you have previously included the FT in a list of publications that you criticised me for using as source material.

My takeaway if that any source is fine as long as the content is in some way supportive of this Labour government.

Which one is that

 

[wingy]

Think I saw something yesterday where the Telegraph was being critical of the BOE, could have just been the headline though?

 

[MalcSB]

I think the FT’s economics editor on economic stats is fair enough and I posted it mostly to hear what others said. It’s a bit technical for me.

Im probably wrong but I think what he is saying is that they had calculated total GDP based in adding growth of X on to a start point of N, to give NX as the GDP estimate. Unfortunately N was incorrect ( worrying as all sorts of decisions will have been made based on N). The BoE best guess at what the real value ascribed to N is actually H, so the new estimate for total GDP is HX which is half of NX.

If I was a Labour spin doctor, I would probably argue that this is good news. As growth X has stayed the same whilst H is considerably less than N, the percentage increase in GDP will be higher. I think!

 

[shmmeee]

Im probably wrong but I think what he is saying is that they had calculated total GDP based in adding growth of X on to a start point of N, to give NX as the GDP estimate. Unfortunately N was incorrect ( worrying as all sorts of decisions will have been made based on N). The BoE best guess at what the real value ascribed to N is actually H, so the new estimate for total GDP is HX which is half of NX.

If I was a Labour spin doctor, I would probably argue that this is good news. As growth X has stayed the same whilst H is considerably less than N, the percentage increase in GDP will be higher. I think!

Wouldn’t this be last years growth that’s wrong then? Not this years? Or is N the total economy and wa always wrong?

I dunno seems silly to run things on projections and guesses generally but this is where I get a bit FP economically.

 

[MalcSB]

Think I saw something yesterday where the Telegraph was being critical of the BOE, could have just been the headline though?

The BoE isn’t your favourite organisation iirc.

I thought the juxtaposition of these two online articles was amising, published 1 hour apart.

The Bank of England is cutting rates to help Labour

Threadneedle Street appears to be saving Reeves’s blushes over doing what’s best for the economy

www.telegraph.co.uk

The Bank of England isn’t coming to save Rachel Reeves – no one is

There is no silver bullet for the economy, and no rate cut can undo the damage of the Budget

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[MalcSB]

Presumably people struggling to buy a house are pleased with the reduction in interest rates from “Sky high levels (lol)”.

 

[MalcSB]

House prices are supposedly increasing at a fair rate of knots as purchasers try to complete before Reeves decision not to extend the lower rates comes in to force.

As ever, heads they win, tails you lose.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.



Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest

 

[PVA]

Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.

Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest

I agree with your first point, that people have their minds made up already.

But on the second point, removing people who have no right to be here is not spiteful - surely that's what everyone wants to see? (obviously I'm not talking about genuine asylum seekers, but the criminals etc).

 

[fernandopartridge]

I agree with your first point, that people have their minds made up already.

But on the second point, removing people who have no right to be here is not spiteful - surely that's what everyone wants to see? (obviously I'm not talking about genuine asylum seekers, but the criminals etc).

The politics behind it is playing up to spite.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

[shmmeee]

Why does he continually court these people? They won't believe you. They have got their minds set.



Concentrate on delivering something positive for people, not just this outright spite fest

Immigration is second only to the economy on voter concerns. With 44%, just above the NHS.

 

[Ian1779]

Change

Cash-strapped schools plan to lay off teachers in blow to Labour’s promise

 

[Grendel]

What a lovely chap.

Health minister Andrew Gwynne sacked over offensive WhatsApp comments

MP also suspended from Labour party after exposure of messages in which he said he hoped for pensioner’s death

www.theguardian.com

 

[Grendel]

I find it hard to believe Angela became angry and aggressive

Angela Rayner 'escorted out of Grenfell meeting' amid shock and anger at demolition

Families of victims have criticised Government decision - but feelings about the move in the wider community are more mixed

www.standard.co.uk

 

[PVA]

What a lovely chap.

Health minister Andrew Gwynne sacked over offensive WhatsApp comments

MP also suspended from Labour party after exposure of messages in which he said he hoped for pensioner’s death

www.theguardian.com

Imagine that, sacking a disgraced minister rather than spending days or weeks defending him only to then sack him after debasing yourself in front of the nation.

 

[MalcSB]

The politics behind it is playing up to spite.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Isn’t a lot of politics about that.

And a lot of the rest about rewarding patronage.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Isn’t a lot of politics about that.

And a lot of the rest about rewarding patronage.

Don’t lose hope that many people want to serve for good reasons like you I suspect and I hope me too
We can live in a better world

 

[duffer]

Don’t lose hope that many people want to serve for good reasons like you I suspect and I hope me too
We can live in a better world

Pete mate, you always see the best in people, and that is to your eternal credit.

I've got to say though, that from my perspective, the honest people who go into politics to do good, are generally overtaken by the lying, conniving shits who will do and say anything to get into power and then stay there. Hence many of the former turn into the latter.

This is most evident in the LINO (Labour-in-name-only) party currently in charge, but is of course also true of almost anyone who has had a whiff of power over the last few decades. If you're looking for people trying to change the world for the better, rather than for themselves, politics probably isn't the right place to be.

(LINO is a good name for this shower, imho. Cheap, plastic, bends when gentle pressure applied, and usually gets replaced after a few years.)

 

[fernandopartridge]

Immigration is second only to the economy on voter concerns. With 44%, just above the NHS.

I believe it is really a concern because a lot of people blame the poor state of the economy and public services on it

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Pete mate, you always see the best in people, and that is to your eternal credit.

I've got to say though, that from my perspective, the honest people who go into politics to do good, are generally overtaken by the lying, conniving shits who will do and say anything to get into power and then stay there. Hence many of the former turn into the latter.

This is most evident in the LINO (Labour-in-name-only) party currently in charge, but is of course also true of almost anyone who has had a whiff of power over the last few decades. If you're looking for people trying to change the world for the better, rather than for themselves, politics probably isn't the right place to be.

(LINO is a good name for this shower, imho. Cheap, plastic, bends when gentle pressure applied, and usually gets replaced after a few years.)

Power corrupts and ultimate power corrupts ultimately

 

[shmmeee]

I believe it is really a concern because a lot of people blame the poor state of the economy and public services on it

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I think most people just think there’s been too much immigration especially illegal immigration. I’m not seeing any violent protests about the state of public services or people shouting out that cuts to local government are why city are losing even if we wished that to be the case.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I think most people just think there’s been too much immigration especially illegal immigration. I’m not seeing any violent protests about the state of public services or people shouting out that cuts to local government are why city are losing even if we wished that to be the case.

It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it

 

[MalcSB]

Imagine that, sacking a disgraced minister rather than spending days or weeks defending him only to then sack him after debasing yourself in front of the nation.

Missed the point entirel.

Its not about swift action being taking, it’s about the disgraceful behaviour that precipitated it.

 

[PVA]

Missed the point entirel.

Its not about swift action being taking, it’s about the disgraceful behaviour that precipitated it.

I didn't miss the point at all.

Obviously the guy is a c**t and deserved to be sacked.

You seem to have missed my point though.

 

[shmmeee]

It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it

I think the boats are symbolic tbh and why Sunaks focus on boats while opening the flood gates to legal immigration backfired. Rightly or wrongly a big chunk of the UK population just wants less immigration right now.

 

[MalcSB]

It’s a tiny figure compared to legal though isn’t it

It may be a tiny figure, but it has sensitised people against the larger number.