New Stadium financial viability. (27 Viewers)

[Godiva]

Because we dont want these crooks/con artists to get the Ricoh!!!!!

You mean it's much better we stay at Sixfields???

 

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[dongonzalos]

So now add £36 million into the mix

From an accountant who has read the books.
I will go with that....

 

[dongonzalos]

You can see why so far the council/ ACL are not panicked into selling the Ricoh. They must be looking at the possibility of building a new stadium figures and scratching their head.

You can also see why they just need enough business to cover the losses. If they do this they will not be getting financially hurt whilst SISU will as Sixfields can never cover it's own loses.

If ACL can break even without CCFC and the JR fails. Surely SISU will have to come back?

 

[Grendel]

Right so Grendal's 8-10 million is way off the mark.

36 million will do for me. If we go for a middle figure in stadium cost 25 million.

60 million to sell the lot to walk away without any loses.

At the moment we pay 1 million a year interest on the debt. This could feasibly double to 2 million.

Is it correct we pay over a million on management fees.

So we need to clear 3 million a year profit before we can consider paying staff.

Awesome

No. No one on here knows the tactics that are being deployed and what the end strategy is. No one knows what debt liability is considered by them and no one knows what their end strategy is. If someone offered them £15 million to leave would they take this? Who knows.

There is not one person on this forum that knows their strategy and knows what their desired outcome is. We do know seppella isn't stupid so all this discussion about accounts, crude calculations, pies is stupid. There is a strategy somewhere.

Once the review is complete I'm sure the strategy will show its hand.

 

[DaleM]

No. No one on here knows the tactics that are being deployed and what the end strategy is. No one knows what debt liability is considered by them and no one knows what their end strategy is. If someone offered them £15 million to leave would they take this? Who knows.

There is not one person on this forum that knows their strategy and knows what their desired outcome is. We do know seppella isn't stupid so all this discussion about accounts, crude calculations, pies is stupid. There is a strategy somewhere.

Once the review is complete I'm sure the strategy will show its hand.

Sorry for using a crude word in my calculations

 

[oldskyblue58]

So where the has £70,000,000 come from OSB?

never really existed in the years from 2008 till now Robbo ....... was just the way the deal was done. SISU bought in by discounting the amounts owed to creditors and at a net £3m or so in the end, but left the full amount of debt outstanding on the CCFC and CCFCH books. That way they could sell the CCFCH group on and demand repayment of the amounts it owed. That way get a substantial return on original investment as well as selling on the company. Well that was the plan ...... which didn't go too well it would seem

The real debt that is owed is the ARVO loans and the loans from the original 5 private equity funds

 

[oldskyblue58]

Even if the accounts are filed tomorrow, won't it be another couple of weeks before we can access them?

could be depends on the Company House work load ........... one thing we will know quite quickly is if they have been filed at all ...... it is marked on the info page for each company

 

[Grendel]

never really existed in the years from 2008 till now Robbo ....... was just the way the deal was done. SISU bought in by discounting the amounts owed to creditors and at a net £3m or so in the end, but left the full amount of debt outstanding on the CCFC and CCFCH books. That way they could sell the CCFCH group on and demand repayment of the amounts it owed. That way get a substantial return on original investment as well as selling on the company. Well that was the plan ...... which didn't go too well it would seem

The real debt that is owed is the ARVO loans and the loans from the original 5 private equity funds

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

 

[Hobo]

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

Depending on how the JR goes we may not even get next season. Unless a knight rides out of the heatwave and throws 10-15m in the direction of SISU to do one.

SISU won't return as tenants...in my opinion.

 

[dongonzalos]

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

Yes I can see them returning as tenants I can't see any other option. Agree a long term rental on cracking terms turn the club into a profitable business. Sell the dream to someone recoup most of the debt.

Can they jump straight to liquidate?

I don't think they can. Someone will pick it up for a swan song

 

[Huckerby]

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

I know you didn't ask me but hell I'll answer anyway.

I think they will return by acquiring the Ricoh on the cheap by distressing ACL and sell it on and do one, bullying the council into a long long leasehold and sell it on and do one, or try to liquidate the whole lot and a knight in shining armor appears to save the day.

Trouble is, I can't really see any of those happening, while at the same time I think they are the three most likely outcomes know what I mean?

 

[Godiva]

Is it correct we pay over a million on management fees.

Can you see how they can recoup 60 million in the long run Godiva?

Do you know if they have ever been asked this?

Don't get me started on management fee's!

Lets start with what is owed now and go with OSB's figure of £36m. Of that a buyer will only pay full price for the £8m to ARVO. If the buyer leaves the loan unchanged he does not pay anything at first, he simply keep servicing the loan.
Then there's the £28m to sisu's funds. As that debt is already written DOWN (not off) it means the price can be negotiated. I have no idea what price will be acceptable, but am pretty sure a buyer will have to pay cash.
Then there's the new stadium (in this scenario) - it will probably sit in a holding company under SBS&L. A buyer will take over any loans and obligations. No cash needed, but future service of any debts.
Finally there's the shares in SBS&L (and Otium). The price (paid in cash) will be determined by the profitability of the club/stadium as well as future outlook.

So a buyer will have to pay cash for the loans to sisu's funds (to be negotiated) plus the shares in SBS&L (and Otium), the rest is taking over servicing the ARVO and stadium loans.
Simplistic and without all the small prints, I know. The point is the price will be a fraction of the overall debts.

 

[oldskyblue58]

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

Sadly I think you could well be right. After all that has been said under the current owners then I cant see them renting either. I think they have hung everything on the JR and the possible law cases that may well follow that. In my own mind I don't see them going past the end of next season, but that's just my gut feeling on it

I do not see how building a downsized stadium gets them the returns they need for their investors, there is no capital growth of any significance. I come back to the two things that are important to Seppala ...... her family - nothing to do with CCFC ...... and her investors for whom she must maximise returns. The end game remains the Ricoh "purchased" by a legal settlement I think and additional compensation/damages if they can. If not then I really do worry as to whether CCFC has a future past 2015

 

[Hobo]

Sadly I think you could well be right. After all that has been said under the current owners then I cant see them renting either. I think they have hung everything on the JR and the possible law cases that may well follow that. In my own mind I don't see them going past the end of next season, but that's just my gut feeling on it

I do not see how building a downsized stadium gets them the returns they need for their investors, there is no capital growth of any significance. I come back to the two things that are important to Seppala ...... her family - nothing to do with CCFC ...... and her investors for whom she must maximise returns. The end game remains the Ricoh "purchased" by a legal settlement I think and additional compensation/damages if they can. If not then I really do worry as to whether CCFC has a future past 2015

That all seems very well put. A succinct analysis of the current state of play.

 

[Godiva]

What's your opinion on the final endgame here?

My take in this is;

Clearly there will never be a new ground

They may stay in Northampton for another season

Then its acquire the stadium by distress means or liquidate the lot.

I cannot ever see them returning as tenants to ACL. Can you?

Sadly I think you could well be right. After all that has been said under the current owners then I cant see them renting either. I think they have hung everything on the JR and the possible law cases that may well follow that. In my own mind I don't see them going past the end of next season, but that's just my gut feeling on it

I do not see how building a downsized stadium gets them the returns they need for their investors, there is no capital growth of any significance. I come back to the two things that are important to Seppala ...... her family - nothing to do with CCFC ...... and her investors for whom she must maximise returns. The end game remains the Ricoh "purchased" by a legal settlement I think and additional compensation/damages if they can. If not then I really do worry as to whether CCFC has a future past 2015

I agree with OSB here - sisu seem to pin their hopes on winning the JR, but I disagree they will liquidate if they fail.
ARVO is the unknown entity here - they are paid interests on their loans and won't let that go for nothing.
In my opinion should they lose the JR the most likely scenario is that sisu hand over the keys to ARVO and write OFF (not down) the loans to the funds.

 

[Noggin]

Don't get me started on management fee's!

Lets start with what is owed now and go with OSB's figure of £36m. Of that a buyer will only pay full price for the £8m to ARVO. If the buyer leaves the loan unchanged he does not pay anything at first, he simply keep servicing the loan.
Then there's the £28m to sisu's funds. As that debt is already written DOWN (not off) it means the price can be negotiated. I have no idea what price will be acceptable, but am pretty sure a buyer will have to pay cash.
Then there's the new stadium (in this scenario) - it will probably sit in a holding company under SBS&L. A buyer will take over any loans and obligations. No cash needed, but future service of any debts.
Finally there's the shares in SBS&L (and Otium). The price (paid in cash) will be determined by the profitability of the club/stadium as well as future outlook.

So a buyer will have to pay cash for the loans to sisu's funds (to be negotiated) plus the shares in SBS&L (and Otium), the rest is taking over servicing the ARVO and stadium loans.
Simplistic and without all the small prints, I know. The point is the price will be a fraction of the overall debts.

The club simply isn't worth the debts it has even at £1, they would either have to agree to sell with only a percentage of the debt attached say 20% and sell for £1, or sell with no debt attached and a price of say £5mill.

No one with any sense would buy the club as it stands with the debt in place.

 

[wingy]

I agree with OSB here - sisu seem to pin their hopes on winning the JR, but I disagree they will liquidate if they fail.
ARVO is the unknown entity here - they are paid interests on their loans and won't let that go for nothing.
In my opinion should they lose the JR the most likely scenario is that sisu hand over the keys to ARVO and write OFF (not down) the loans to the funds.

How I see it
Fisher or the like wwith ithe strategyand finding the funds or some of them.

 

[dongonzalos]

Don't get me started on management fee's!

Lets start with what is owed now and go with OSB's figure of £36m. Of that a buyer will only pay full price for the £8m to ARVO. If the buyer leaves the loan unchanged he does not pay anything at first, he simply keep servicing the loan.
Then there's the £28m to sisu's funds. As that debt is already written DOWN (not off) it means the price can be negotiated. I have no idea what price will be acceptable, but am pretty sure a buyer will have to pay cash.
Then there's the new stadium (in this scenario) - it will probably sit in a holding company under SBS&L. A buyer will take over any loans and obligations. No cash needed, but future service of any debts.
Finally there's the shares in SBS&L (and Otium). The price (paid in cash) will be determined by the profitability of the club/stadium as well as future outlook.

So a buyer will have to pay cash for the loans to sisu's funds (to be negotiated) plus the shares in SBS&L (and Otium), the rest is taking over servicing the ARVO and stadium loans.
Simplistic and without all the small prints, I know. The point is the price will be a fraction of the overall debts.

However apart from paying out 8 million they will agreeing to take responsibility for 52 million pounds worth of debt ( or whatever negotiated figure) unless they are a crazy Cov fan or a billionaire. That will not happen.

Hence the stadium will not happen.

Why has SISU not been challenged over this.

 

[oldskyblue58]

Could that be because ARVO have a charge over everything sky blue and could hold that as a ransom demand Godiva knowing fans and others would be desperate to save the club............. didn't I read somewhere that Seppala was involved in ARVO could be wrong on that. The financial power in the SBS&L group is no longer the SISU investors they have been parked it is much more now about protecting ARVO's interests.

Generally saying the same thing I think aren't we ? ....... that makes a change :laugh:

 

[Grendel]

However apart from paying out 8 million they will agreeing to take responsibility for 52 million pounds worth of debt ( or whatever negotiated figure) unless they are a crazy Cov fan or a billionaire. That will not happen.

Hence the stadium will not happen.

Why has SISU not been challenged over this.

OSB seems to agree with me don a rent deal is a no go what do you think?

 

[dongonzalos]

I agree with OSB here - sisu seem to pin their hopes on winning the JR, but I disagree they will liquidate if they fail.
ARVO is the unknown entity here - they are paid interests on their loans and won't let that go for nothing.
In my opinion should they lose the JR the most likely scenario is that sisu hand over the keys to ARVO and write OFF (not down) the loans to the funds.

If that happens do ARVO then need to recoup as much of 8 million that they can?

 

[wingy]

I agree with OSB here - sisu seem to pin their hopes on winning the JR, but I disagree they will liquidate if they fail.
ARVO is the unknown entity here - they are paid interests on their loans and won't let that go for nothing.
In my opinion should they lose the JR the most likely scenario is that sisu hand over the keys to ARVO and write OFF (not down) the loans to the funds.

Could that be because ARVO have a charge over everything sky blue and could hold that as a ransom demand Godiva knowing fans and others would be desperate to save the club............. didn't I read somewhere that Seppala was involved in ARVO could be wrong on that. The financial power in the SBS&L group is no longer the SISU investors they have been parked it is much more now about protecting ARVO's interests.

Generally saying the same thing I think aren't we ? ....... that makes a change :laugh:

Should we be looking for another company created in advance of that outcome
Like that one Fisher set up about 6months back

 

[dongonzalos]

OSB seems to agree with me don a rent deal is a no go what do you think?

Everyone seems to agree a rent deal is no go.

However I can't see someone writing off 36 million.

If they could agree a 10 year rent deal on their terms. Then turn the club into a break even / profit making business.

You do that surely you could sell that package for 10-15 million.

If JS writes of 36 million of investors money I would suggest that would be the end of SISU as no investors would invest in the future

 

[dongonzalos]

You lose the JR.

Then you approach the council/ ACL
show them a transparent business plan with a rent and f and b deal incorporated which allows the club to break even.
Explain that it genuinely is this or liquidation.

Agree the deal

Attempt to turn a profit or get some footballing success. If neither happen at least you are breaking even. Sell someone the dream.

8 million to ARVO

10 million to yourself.

18 million that get a break even club and a dream.

 

[Godiva]

Could that be because ARVO have a charge over everything sky blue and could hold that as a ransom demand Godiva knowing fans and others would be desperate to save the club............. didn't I read somewhere that Seppala was involved in ARVO could be wrong on that. The financial power in the SBS&L group is no longer the SISU investors they have been parked it is much more now about protecting ARVO's interests.

Generally saying the same thing I think aren't we ? ....... that makes a change :laugh:

I don't really know if JS is involved in ARVO, could be. I won't be surprised if she comes out richer no matter what happens.

My concern with ARVO taking over the club is that it could lead to the club return to the Ricoh as tenants. Even if the rent is lowered to £400k/yr including match day costs it actually means the last two years have been for nothing. The club and ACL need to be merged under one owner.

 

[skybluetony176]

It must be nice to be a nutter living in a dream world like RFC. Because any way you paint it we are screwed as fans. Best case scenario is it's going to get a hell of a lot worse and then maybe get better, maybe. Worse case scenario being we could be gone for good by the end of next season if not sooner. It don't matter who you "apologise" for either.

 

[Samo]

Everyone seems to agree a rent deal is no go.

However I can't see someone writing off 36 million.

If they could agree a 10 year rent deal on their terms. Then turn the club into a break even / profit making business.

You do that surely you could sell that package for 10-15 million.

If JS writes of 36 million of investors money I would suggest that would be the end of SISU as no investors would invest in the future

Is a rent deal really a no go? Post JR of course. They crawled back to the Higgs Centre when they had to.

 

[Godiva]

Is a rent deal really a no go? Post JR of course. They crawled back to the Higgs Centre when they had to.

Yes - the club needs the revenue from ACL to be profitable and competitive going forward.

 

[skybluetony176]

Yes - the club needs the revenue from ACL to be profitable and competitive going forward.

It's not really a no go though (from a fans wanting the best for the club point of view). It just needs to be the right deal. The only real reason for it being a no go is it won't work for sisu's investors.

 

[dongonzalos]

I don't really know if JS is involved in ARVO, could be. I won't be surprised if she comes out richer no matter what happens.

My concern with ARVO taking over the club is that it could lead to the club return to the Ricoh as tenants. Even if the rent is lowered to £400k/yr including match day costs it actually means the last two years have been for nothing. The club and ACL need to be merged under one owner.

Funnily enough I think that would be the least of everyone's concern. Most already see this as a waste of time

 

[valiant15]

Arvo? I thought arvo was just another sisu company?

How could arvo take over the football club?

All this confuses the hell out of me!

 

[Samo]

Yes - the club needs the revenue from ACL to be profitable and competitive going forward.

Godiva, you clearly know more of these matters than I do. Why could a deal not be done? Surely if the rent is low enough the F&B'S become less important?

 

[Grendel]

Godiva, you clearly know more of these matters than I do. Why could a deal not be done? Surely if the rent is low enough the F&B'S become less important?

Sisu and their history of dealing with companies suggests a deal will never be done.

 

[Samo]

Sisu and their history of dealing with companies suggests a deal will never be done.

I agree Grendel. I just don't think its an impossibility if SISU were to find themselves out of options.

 

[dongonzalos]

Sisu and their history of dealing with companies suggests a deal will never be done.

It does make sense to lose 36 million when you possibly save 10-15 of it?