am tempted to say well it has been since 1996 and it is still, and is still likely to be next year.......... so it can be run at a loss
However more seriously ....................... I have argued for a long time that it has to be run it has to be run within its means. There is no sugar daddy, SISU have I feel drawn a line as to their revenue funding, the business has to stand on its own two feet.
However the rent issue and in deed the "other income sources" will not in themselves solve the problem ............... the only info we have is looking back (yes i know things are different now, will come to that) but if for the years 2008 through to 2011 you take out all rent and include £2m in extra income after deducting VAT for each year CCFC and CCFC H still have combined losses of nearly £40m.
Additional income streams bring a bigger budget for wages but those additional streams have their own costs as well. Say the income sources of £2m come with direct costs of £1m that leaves £1m cash to pay additional player costs. However the additional player budget is £1.3m ........... without additional funding (otherwise known as debt) then we can not utilise the full budget.
Currently I would estimate that income from normal activities is £5.2m to which is added the profits on Keogh Bigi & Robins say £2.1m total circa £7.3m.
Costs meanwhile are £4m in player wages under FFP, say another £1m for younger players not covered, managers, coaches, directors etc. Direct costs are circa £1m (confirmed be TF on Friday radio morning show) Other overhead costs excluding rent say £3m, Interest payable £1m +..... Holding company costs £500k.
That lot adds up to a loss of £3.2. and that is before the legal and professional costs of the dispute that suspect CCFC is liable for.... that wont be cheap. Yes I know that it is all guesswork but what if it was close to reality?
btw the cashflow situation may well be even worse because transfers are staged in payment but included in P&L at date of transfer
so how much extra income is actually available from match day sources say it is £2m as i estimated above but dont forget there will be additional costs to factor in for that income too. That would still leave us in a loss situation. Next year of course there is a very real possibility of even less income because we do not have many Keogh s or Bigi's to sell, cant guarantee cup runs etc. Does a nil rent and the matchday income actually plug the gap ..... doesnt look like it, not unless we get used to a smaller player budget and what that might mean.
This I admit is all guess work but educated guess work based on SISU own figures in the accounts ...... however you have to ask dont SISU already know all this? So what are they actually planning? I am sure they have better figures than me (would be worried if they didnt) Some of the costs might be lower....... the total income might be better than I estimate ...... but I find this all worrying and the conclusion I draw is that a nil rent and getting all the match day income does not make us profitable, may well not mean break even either.
final thought is that TF says SISU are now owed £45m+ ..... 31st May 2011 it was £30m...... thats funding of £15m+ in 20 months..... where is it going?.
This isnt a post bashing one side or the other...... not bashing SISU .................. but think, does it all add up (for want of a better phrase
)
It has and remains the same general solution..... reduce the rent, reduce all costs, get match day income sources etc.........but above all else get more people to come and watch because that affects all else directly. Requires funding and targeted intelligent investment in the team/squad though (not just funding the losses already tied into) and we dont seem to have had it. A catch 22 really isnt it !
