Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
It's not but they're obsessed with public perception and being popular. Although their response to the kid's meals is an odd aberration.
Why is everything in the papers days before the government announce it, no way to run the country.
Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .Watch that Independent SAGE presentation. Areas that have been in Tier 3 have shown no slowdown in spread. The tier system is essentially doing nothing. If you think about it people travel from Cov to London, Birmingham, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire for work, there’s no way you can have effective local measures really.
It seems it’s got to be short sharp shocks. We need to have a plan for when we need a 2/3 week lockdown and be ready to go. You can’t half arse this thing.
And for gods sake we need a working track and trace program. It’s criminal we’re still failing on that.
It was half term this week wasn't it? Nothing could be more ridiculous than starting a national lockdown the day after the school holidays end, not to mention right as the furlough scheme ends, and insisting everyone go back to school.Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .
No If's or buts should have been programmed in.
Sorry but fuckin idiot. Why now? 2 weeks too late again!!!!
Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.Sorry but fuckin idiot. Why now? 2 weeks too late again!!!!
Once again it’s verging on criminal.Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.
Thats OK the goverment have leaked there intentions again, lock down 2.0 here we come, glad it doesn't effect me I work from and barley leave, only downside is Iver seen my grandparents 3x since Feb, missed both birthdays missed many family meals but considering there both going into their 80s I don't mind.Watch that Independent SAGE presentation. Areas that have been in Tier 3 have shown no slowdown in spread. The tier system is essentially doing nothing. If you think about it people travel from Cov to London, Birmingham, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire for work, there’s no way you can have effective local measures really.
It seems it’s got to be short sharp shocks. We need to have a plan for when we need a 2/3 week lockdown and be ready to go. You can’t half arse this thing.
And for gods sake we need a working track and trace program. It’s criminal we’re still failing on that.
There's minutes from a SAGE meeting on 21st September where they formally suggested it. Although that was far from the first time it was put forward by the experts, it was being said for weeks before that with it being repeatedly said the longer we left it the less impact it would have.Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.
What do they say?
The minutes of the Sage meeting on 21 September show the experts wanted a dramatic increase in restrictions across the country to check the alarming rise in infections, warning at that point that the number of cases was doubling every seven days and hospitalisations had begun to increase. A package of measures was needed, they said, to include:
a “circuit-breaker” lockdown of a couple of weeks.
advice to work from home for all who could.
a ban on household mixing in homes.
closure of all bars, cafes, restaurants, indoor gyms and personal services such as hairdressers.
all university and college teaching to be online.
What did the UK actually do?
None of the above – except for the advice on working at home.
Half terms and holidays the natural points to do it .
No If's or buts should have been programmed in.
More like six tony then three weeks deciding/ pontificating cabinet arguing to announce the tiered system .Think it longer than that really. I think it’s at least 4 weeks ago SAGE suggested the circuit breaker.
I'm not going back to school, i hated it when i had to attend in the 70/80's.It was half term this week wasn't it? Nothing could be more ridiculous than starting a national lockdown the day after the school holidays end, not to mention right as the furlough scheme ends, and insisting everyone go back to school.
I was going to send this a couple of days ago but held off and even though I appreciate I’m now even less on the right side of the latest scientific advice, I thought I’d still post it...
I’ve seen plenty on here saying, locked down again, have regular lockdowns, just add extra weeks onto school hols etc etc but none fully take into account the ramifications of this ie if the schools close parents or more worryingly grandparents having to stay home to look after the kids (in particular key workers), the impact on businesses during lockdowns (whatever scheme is offered it won’t be enough for many to survive so huge redundancies on way), the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc or the most importantly the fact that a significant proportion of the public are no longer following the measures !!!
I’m all for people hammering the government for things like track and trace, Hancocks general shitness etc but also there has got to be some realism
People keep part quoting Sage who ‘recommended’ a circuit break, without then acknowledging that, they would need more than one and also these would have negative impacts elsewhere and have a disproportionate effect on the poorest in society, as did WHO (and young as I’ve mentioned before). Nor recognising that they may only put the virus back for 3-4 weeks, the fact that people with far more serious illnesses have either avoided hospitals or GPs (26m lost appts apparently), or missed screenings in the last lockdown. Probably a sweeping generalisation but I’m guessing most people calling for lockdowns like it’s a relatively simple solution tick at least a couple of the following boxes - probably in a relationship, possibly got kids, don’t go out/socialise as much, got a relatively safe jobs, live in a house (not for example a one bed flat) and are probably higher risk. What about those that don’t tick any/as many of those boxes ?
I’m not saying lockdowns won’t help, of course they would and I’m all for using them as a tool to help manage NHS capacity but throughout Europe most countries are taking very similar approaches (we’re not an outlier)
I personally would’ve liked to have seen a big push on ensuring people follow self isolation measures (10% doing so means the actual track and trace numbers are pretty irrelevant) and also a massive push to get people healthier. I read that only over 65s maintained or improved their level of exercise/fitness during the first wave. So basically loads on furlough, saving time with no work/commuting (albeit many looking after kids) etc yet, didn’t manage to even do the same exercise as before, when the weather was good and when it’s known to help the fight against the virus...WTF ?!! For all the governments faults (there’s many), people have got to start taking some personal responsibility in all this and I don’t think following self isolation rules when you’ve got/likely to have the virus and upping exercise (although now far trickier with shit weather) is too much to ask !
Added bit - The scientific ‘evidence’ is all over the place on this at the moment...where the transmissions are happening (hospitality or not ??), how many are currently being infected (from c30k per day to 90k per day - R rate from 1.1-1.3 to 1.6+ - bit of a difference !!!!), whether you are likely to be reinfected, fatality rates (from 0.2 to 1%), and how many have had it (anywhere between 7% and 30%+ - the use antibodies to estimate this appears crazy). It’s hard to know what to believe anymore and all of the above have massive implications on whats the best strategy to use.
RANT OVER - I go large and not often on here these days. No offence to any of those supporting lockdowns by the way, I get it, 100%, especially when you’re trying to protect loved ones, just trying to show there’s another side to the coin and it’s not a straight forward a call as people suggest
Ps what a win last night...let’s hope at least football continues in lockdown. PUSB x
Yep lower it and start to manage the test isolate and trace stuff with some professionalismI think it’s clear Steve that more than most I want nothing more than just to teach properly and to have some kind of normality. My mental health after a term of remote teaching was shot and teaching with all these COVID restraints that clearly haven’t worked made it worse. So if we had to go back to remote I’d hate it. However if it really were just for 3 weeks, I could tolerate it and accept that it’s completely supported by the evidence. No it wouldn’t remove the virus from circulation but it would again put the squeeze on the case curve.
I want it fucking over more than anyone-but being impatient isn’t going to turn out well.
I think it’s clear Steve that more than most I want nothing more than just to teach properly and to have some kind of normality. My mental health after a term of remote teaching was shot and teaching with all these COVID restraints that clearly haven’t worked made it worse. So if we had to go back to remote I’d hate it. However if it really were just for 3 weeks, I could tolerate it and accept that it’s completely supported by the evidence. No it wouldn’t remove the virus from circulation but it would again put the squeeze on the case curve.
I want it fucking over more than anyone-but being impatient isn’t going to turn out well.
Well said steve most teachers are bloody brilliantI think schools will remain open though, which just appears bizarre under current circumstance (based of the varied evidence). My worry is this will not be a 3-4 circuit breaker but turn into an extended lockdown. Let’s hope/pray for some good vaccine/treatment news soon !!!
Ps fair play to you guys and others on the front line. Can’t be easy. Please don’t say you’re gloried babysitters, however tricky the last few weeks have been it has no doubt benefited large numbers of kids lives (remote working is great in theory but I’m sure most kids would’ve got a lot more from schools being open)
I was going to send this a couple of days ago but held off and even though I appreciate I’m now even less on the right side of the latest scientific advice, I thought I’d still post it...
I’ve seen plenty on here saying, locked down again, have regular lockdowns, just add extra weeks onto school hols etc etc but none fully take into account the ramifications of this ie if the schools close parents or more worryingly grandparents having to stay home to look after the kids (in particular key workers), the impact on businesses during lockdowns (whatever scheme is offered it won’t be enough for many to survive so huge redundancies on way), the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc or the most importantly the fact that a significant proportion of the public are no longer following the measures !!!
I’m all for people hammering the government for things like track and trace, Hancocks general shitness etc but also there has got to be some realism
People keep part quoting Sage who ‘recommended’ a circuit break, without then acknowledging that, they would need more than one and also these would have negative impacts elsewhere and have a disproportionate effect on the poorest in society, as did WHO (and young as I’ve mentioned before). Nor recognising that they may only put the virus back for 3-4 weeks, the fact that people with far more serious illnesses have either avoided hospitals or GPs (26m lost appts apparently), or missed screenings in the last lockdown. Probably a sweeping generalisation but I’m guessing most people calling for lockdowns like it’s a relatively simple solution tick at least a couple of the following boxes - probably in a relationship, possibly got kids, don’t go out/socialise as much, got a relatively safe jobs, live in a house (not for example a one bed flat) and are probably higher risk. What about those that don’t tick any/as many of those boxes ?
I’m not saying lockdowns won’t help, of course they would and I’m all for using them as a tool to help manage NHS capacity but throughout Europe most countries are taking very similar approaches (we’re not an outlier)
I personally would’ve liked to have seen a big push on ensuring people follow self isolation measures (10% doing so means the actual track and trace numbers are pretty irrelevant) and also a massive push to get people healthier. I read that only over 65s maintained or improved their level of exercise/fitness during the first wave. So basically loads on furlough, saving time with no work/commuting (albeit many looking after kids) etc yet, didn’t manage to even do the same exercise as before, when the weather was good and when it’s known to help the fight against the virus...WTF ?!! For all the governments faults (there’s many), people have got to start taking some personal responsibility in all this and I don’t think following self isolation rules when you’ve got/likely to have the virus and upping exercise (although now far trickier with shit weather) is too much to ask !
Added bit - The scientific ‘evidence’ is all over the place on this at the moment...where the transmissions are happening (hospitality or not ??), how many are currently being infected (from c30k per day to 90k per day - R rate from 1.1-1.3 to 1.6+ - bit of a difference !!!!), whether you are likely to be reinfected, fatality rates (from 0.2 to 1%), and how many have had it (anywhere between 7% and 30%+ - the use antibodies to estimate this appears crazy). It’s hard to know what to believe anymore and all of the above have massive implications on whats the best strategy to use.
RANT OVER - I go large and not often on here these days. No offence to any of those supporting lockdowns by the way, I get it, 100%, especially when you’re trying to protect loved ones, just trying to show there’s another side to the coin and it’s not a straight forward a call as people suggest
Ps what a win last night...let’s hope at least football continues in lockdown. PUSB x
I think schools will remain open though, which just appears bizarre under current circumstance (based of the varied evidence). My worry is this will not be a 3-4 circuit breaker but turn into an extended lockdown. Let’s hope/pray for some good vaccine/treatment news soon !!!
Ps fair play to you guys and others on the front line. Can’t be easy. Please don’t say you’re gloried babysitters, however tricky the last few weeks have been it has no doubt benefited large numbers of kids lives (remote working is great in theory but I’m sure most kids would’ve got a lot more from schools being open)
It’s that first part I can’t take. We all know schools spread it around so if you’re going to put me in there let me do it properly and give them a proper learning experience. We are having to reinvent the science curriculum from scratch with no support and that’s without all the other problems caused by being confined to a box
I'd just like to say that my mental health is far worse having to see someone I care about go in, needlessly in my view, to a high risk area, and them being in tears each time they set off and come back.the mental health impacts of the lockdowns etc etc
Yep lower it and start to manage the test isolate and trace stuff with some professionalism
With respect, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the virus is spreading exponentially and we aren’t far from hitting capacity in areas of the NHS. Equally it’s pretty overwhelming that local lockdowns don’t work and it’s National or nothing.
But lockdowns are a last resort when your track and trace has failed/been overwhelmed.
You say a two week lockdown would be terrible but it’s to avoid a three month one which would be worse. It’s the uncertainty that’s killing people mentally in my experience. If we plan proper support for these mini lockdowns I see no reason why it would cause some mental health crisis.
At the moment it’s the worst of all worlds. Businesses are hurting without clear support. Local economies are being destroyed for months at a time for no good reason.
Unless you’re claiming the virus doesn’t need managing at all, and we should just let people and business die to protect a theoretical mental health effect from lockdown, then I don’t see what other options we have.
Don’t lock down at all and watch hospitality and other businesses go to the wall as people are too scared to go out, tens of not hundreds of thousands dead before their time and tens of thousands more because the NHS is incapacitated. I find it very very hard to believe that’s seriously what you’re arguing for.
That's true but, at the risk of repeating the same things, that's what I've said all along. Do it early, decisively and sure, you'll probably have to do it again, but hanging on and hanging on means we're flapping around in chaos and carnage.Ps a two week lockdown wouldn’t touch the sides !!!
Poeple have never understood the terms apart from Lockdown .That's true but, at the risk of repeating the same things, that's what I've said all along. Do it early, decisively and sure, you'll probably have to do it again, but hanging on and hanging on means we're flapping around in chaos and carnage.
And that's worse for the economy!
(As an aside, even though you're opposed to me here... and Brexit, can I just say I appreciate the way you at least phrase your posts!)
It also unravelled quite badly when Cummings carried on in his post. Given the timing of all that coming to light, you'd almost think it was a conspiracy theory to push people out again but... let's assume it isn't, and it was a fatal blow if we expected people to follow messaging. Couple that with the extra confusing go out, don't go out, go and drink a pint, but carefully, go back to your office but don't go and watch sports... it just ends up so muddled.Poeple have never understood the terms apart from Lockdown .
Anything else has just led to non compliance and confusion ,to outright division.
Given everything else has been leaked before, not sure why they'd be furious now!'Terrifying' projections and concern over NHS capacity at heart of push for new lockdown
No 10 are furious that the details of national measures have been leaked to journalists and have launched an official inquiry.news.sky.com
What do we reckon then? Hastily pulled together presser tonight? Pubs to close as of 10pm tomorrow?
Guess it depends where the leak came from .
The more hawkish members of cabinet would no doubt still like to resist these measures .
Pulling it forward would seem panicky but would usurp their influence .
Let's not forget the initial circuit breaker theory of mid September made it to the media so someone at the top became persuaded against that by others .
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