Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (191 Viewers)

[chiefdave]

I’ve never had a medical card. Is that a thing?

Assume he means these



in which case they were a thing but they aren't anymore. Only found that out when I lost mine moving house and asked the doctor for a new one! Apparently they're useless even if you still have it as the system for NHS numbers was changed when they stopped the cards and everyone has a new number.

 

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[Ccfcisparks]

Seen that the Welsh first minister, Sturgeon and the Northern Ireland CMO have all said that to get back to normal in July is unlikely and that social distancing for the rest of 20/21 is likely. Does everyone else feel the same as this? What are your thoughts?

 

[SBT]

Seen that the Welsh first minister, Sturgeon and the Northern Ireland first minister have all said that to get back to normal in July is unlikely and that social distancing for the rest of 20/21 is likely. Does everyone else feel the same as this? What are your thoughts?

I've not seen this anywhere. Sounds made up if I'm honest.

 

[chiefdave]

Seen that the Welsh first minister, Sturgeon and the Northern Ireland first minister have all said that to get back to normal in July is unlikely and that social distancing for the rest of 20/21 is likely. Does everyone else feel the same as this? What are your thoughts?

The scientists are speaking a lot more cautiously than Johnson.

The announcement of the roadmap out of lockdown seems to have been taken by some as a signal to relax, definitely noticed a change since then.

Hope we don’t see the numbers starting to go back up in a couple of weeks as we’ve now got kids going back to school on top of people relaxing.

 

[jordan210]

I listened to an interview with Grant Shapps yesterday who said lateral flow false positives are between 1-3 in every 1000.

on Monday we did over half a million more tests then the previous Monday. I would guess these are likely all to be Lat flow.

Monday 5,788 tested positive by specimen date.

Best case is 500 of the extra tests are false positive worst case is 1500 are false.

The dash board it says 286,539 out of Mondays 1,374,579 tests are PRC.

That leaves roughly 1.1m tests that are possibly Lat flow.

So best case 1100 of the 1,1m are false and worst case 3300.

Between 20% - 58% of Mondays figure could be false !

 

[Ccfcisparks]

I've not seen this anywhere. Sounds made up if I'm honest.

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford says life won't return to normal in 2021 despite vaccines

Wales could move faster than England to ease some lockdown rules but is unlikely to remove all Covid-19 precautions this year

inews.co.uk

 

[SBT]

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford says life won't return to normal in 2021 despite vaccines

Wales could move faster than England to ease some lockdown rules but is unlikely to remove all Covid-19 precautions this year

inews.co.uk

Blimey. What about Sturgeon and Foster?

 

[shmmeee]

I listened to an interview with Grant Shapps yesterday who said lateral flow false positives are between 1-3 in every 1000.

on Monday we did over half a million more tests then the previous Monday. I would guess these are likely all to be Lat flow.

Monday 5,788 tested positive by specimen date.

Best case is 500 of the extra tests are false positive worst case is 1500 are false.

The dash board it says 286,539 out of Mondays 1,374,579 tests are PRC.

That leaves roughly 1.1m tests that are possibly Lat flow.

So best case 1100 of the 1,1m are false and worst case 3300.

Between 20% - 58% of Mondays figure could be false !

Not sure that’s true. Specificity of the test is 99.9% - 99.97% which is 3-10 false positives per 10,000, not 1-3 per 1,000 firstly.

Also the sensitivity is around 75%, so you’re missing almost 1 in 4 true positives.

Basically I don’t think your numbers add up at all, the test is highly specific but low sensitivity, if anything it’s likely recording too low numbers not too high.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Not sure that’s true. Specificity of the test is 99.9% - 99.97% which is 3-10 false positives per 10,000, not 1-3 per 1,000 firstly.

Also the sensitivity is around 75%, so you’re missing almost 1 in 4 true positives.

Basically I don’t think your numbers add up at all, the test is highly specific but low sensitivity, if anything it’s likely recording too low numbers not too high.

I always saw that lateral flow test as an aid rather than a solution, and the figures it generated to be all a little pointless in the grand scheme of things. It's more to be used as an early warning, rather than a catch-all.

 

[jordan210]

Not sure that’s true. Specificity of the test is 99.9% - 99.97% which is 3-10 false positives per 10,000, not 1-3 per 1,000 firstly.

Also the sensitivity is around 75%, so you’re missing almost 1 in 4 true positives.

Basically I don’t think your numbers add up at all, the test is highly specific but low sensitivity, if anything it’s likely recording too low numbers not too high.

My numbers are based on what Shapp said yesterday for a lateral flow. Can only go by what he says.

I would guess a PCR is 3-10 in 10000 as is a much better test.

But who knows realy. I know the Royal Statistical Society had issue with the numbers

RSS calls for health data review | News

Professional body for statisticians the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) has called for greater transparency around data and a review of the UK’s health statistics to address a 'fragmented' system.

www.research-live.com

 

[shmmeee]

My numbers are based on what Shapp said yesterday for a lateral flow. Can only go by what he says.

I would guess a PCR is 3-10 in 10000 as is a much better test.

But who knows realy. I know the Royal Statistical Society had issue with the numbers

RSS calls for health data review | News

Professional body for statisticians the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) has called for greater transparency around data and a review of the UK’s health statistics to address a 'fragmented' system.

www.research-live.com

Going off this: New analysis of lateral flow tests shows specificity of at least 99.9%

Which admittedly is a government source. The sensitivity measure was from a medical site but I can’t find it now.

 

[shmmeee]

Sounds like good news



(the second tweet, I’m not anti-Brazilian)

 

[shmmeee]

Here’s a question for my fellow lefties:

If, by way of experimenting with both the vaccine dosage schedule and the use of the AZ vaccine in all age groups, the U.K. leads other countries to adopt more effective vaccine protocols where otherwise they wouldn’t, and in doing so saves many more lives globally than have been lost in the U.K. through their previous incompetence.

Does that even out?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Here’s a question for my fellow lefties:

If, by way of experimenting with both the vaccine dosage schedule and the use of the AZ vaccine in all age groups, the U.K. leads other countries to adopt more effective vaccine protocols where otherwise they wouldn’t, and in doing so saves many more lives globally than have been lost in the U.K. through their previous incompetence.

Does that even out?

Not sure that's a lefty / righty question tbh.

I'd rather any tests were done in clinical trials, than in real time tbh, whatever the result.

(For balance, the dodgy swine flu vaccine was rushed in under a Labour government, and the principle still applies. The result is incidental to keeping to procedure, in my eyes)

 

[shmmeee]

Not sure that's a lefty / righty question tbh.

I'd rather any tests were done in clinical trials, than in real time tbh, whatever the result.

(For balance, the dodgy swine flu vaccine was rushed in under a Labour government, and the principle still applies. The result is incidental to keeping to procedure, in my eyes)

More that it’s mostly us upset about government incompetence.

To be clear, I’m not sure it does as I think they stumbled into the vaccine solutions because it aligned with their wish to get everything open, and also intentionally fucked up from their desire to keep things open.

It’s just I noticed the next tweet in that thread being another country using AZ over 65s because of the data coming out of the U.K.

 

[David O'Day]

More that it’s mostly us upset about government incompetence.

To be clear, I’m not sure it does as I think they stumbled into the vaccine solutions because it aligned with their wish to get everything open, and also intentionally fucked up from their desire to keep things open.

It’s just I noticed the next tweet in that thread being another country using AZ over 65s because of the data coming out of the U.K.

No a lot of people who don't see themselves as left or right are annoyed and angry but the time for that anger is still to come. Yu gain nothing attacking the incumbents in a crisis.

Having a death toll that could be 5 or 10 times what it needed to be will be looked at again in the future.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Word on das straße is Germany entering their 3rd wave.


Edit: thought better of the (shit) bad taste joke.

 

[clint van damme]

Got my text to get the jab. Several weeks ahead of the original estimated date. Great going

 

[Philosoraptor]

Here’s a question for my fellow lefties:

If, by way of experimenting with both the vaccine dosage schedule and the use of the AZ vaccine in all age groups, the U.K. leads other countries to adopt more effective vaccine protocols where otherwise they wouldn’t, and in doing so saves many more lives globally than have been lost in the U.K. through their previous incompetence.

Does that even out?

It would depend on what you are basing your Utilitarian ideals around. The benefit of your own commonwealth or the wider good. Surely, any Government would need to look after its own commonwealth first and make sure they get the best possible care based on the current evidence rather than experimenting on the general population.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I listened to an interview with Grant Shapps yesterday who said lateral flow false positives are between 1-3 in every 1000.

on Monday we did over half a million more tests then the previous Monday. I would guess these are likely all to be Lat flow.

Monday 5,788 tested positive by specimen date.

Best case is 500 of the extra tests are false positive worst case is 1500 are false.

The dash board it says 286,539 out of Mondays 1,374,579 tests are PRC.

That leaves roughly 1.1m tests that are possibly Lat flow.

So best case 1100 of the 1,1m are false and worst case 3300.

Between 20% - 58% of Mondays figure could be false !

False either way. My father in low tested negative on a LFD whilst symptomatic. Postive on a PCR. Has spent the week in bed but thankfully seems to be on the mend now.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Third wave here is bollocks. Sorry.

Vulnerable people being jabbed causes hospitalisation and death to plummet. Otherwise the vaccine doesn't work.

It is one or the other, and I'm not sure how anyone can defend further restrictions going forward.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Third wave here is bollocks. Sorry.

Vulnerable people being jabbed causes hospitalisation and death to plummet. Otherwise the vaccine doesn't work.

It is one or the other, and I'm not sure how anyone can defend further restrictions going forward.

You're restricting until the population is vaccinated because:

• Increased socialisation = increased transmission;
• The vaccine is not perfect.
• We have yet to have it confirmed that being vaccinated stops, entirely, transmission.

So, therefore, until everybody has been vaccinated, we still offer up a risk to elderly, infirm populations, and offer a risk of increased illness, and hospitalisation, for younger groups. That, therefore, still offers a risk to the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function 'normally'.

Once everybody has been vaccinated, then we reach a position of the fabled herd immunity, given that some people won't take it, anyway. At that stage, there is a risk, but a realistic risk compared to everything else in life. Before that stage, you're mixing a number of people who haven't been vaccinated, with those with a certain %age of protection.

As for third wave I'd trust the chief medical officer, with years of training, when he considers the future, and what is to come.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Third wave here is bollocks. Sorry.

Vulnerable people being jabbed causes hospitalisation and death to plummet. Otherwise the vaccine doesn't work.

It is one or the other, and I'm not sure how anyone can defend further restrictions going forward.

We're under lockdown at the moment tbf.

 

[SG21]

Had the Astra Zenica jab yesterday. Dear lord do I feel lousy. Head hurting, aching, shivering. I have no desire to do anything. It's completely K.Od me

Anyone else getting this?

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

You're restricting until the population is vaccinated because:

• Increased socialisation = increased transmission;
• The vaccine is not perfect.
• We have yet to have it confirmed that being vaccinated stops, entirely, transmission.

So, therefore, until everybody has been vaccinated, we still offer up a risk to elderly, infirm populations, and offer a risk of increased illness, and hospitalisation, for younger groups. That, therefore, still offers a risk to the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function 'normally'.

Once everybody has been vaccinated, then we reach a position of the fabled herd immunity, given that some people won't take it, anyway. At that stage, there is a risk, but a realistic risk compared to everything else in life. Before that stage, you're mixing a number of people who haven't been vaccinated, with those with a certain %age of protection.

As for third wave I'd trust the chief medical officer, with years of training, when he considers the future, and what is to come.

In which case, we will never go back to living normal lives again. If the virus adapts and is still around for ten years, what are we going to do? Wear masks all the time and lock down each winter? You cannot uphold a society in that way.

Most vulnerable people have had the first jab now, by the time they have had the second, there really is no excuse.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

In which case, we will never go back to living normal lives again.

Yes we will, by following as I laid out in my post.

 

[ovduk78]

Had the Astra Zenica jab yesterday. Dear lord do I feel lousy. Head hurting, aching, shivering. I have no desire to do anything. It's completely K.Od me

Anyone else getting this?

Had mine last week and just had an aching arm for a day or 2 and a mild headache for 24 hours. Hope you feel better soon

 

[Macca1987]

Had the Astra Zenica jab yesterday. Dear lord do I feel lousy. Head hurting, aching, shivering. I have no desire to do anything. It's completely K.Od me

Anyone else getting this?

SG21, had the same, luckily only lasted about 12/15 hours, you should be out of it soon, good luck

 

[greys4life]

Had the Astra Zenica jab yesterday. Dear lord do I feel lousy. Head hurting, aching, shivering. I have no desire to do anything. It's completely K.Od me

Anyone else getting this?

I had the Pfizer one , no reaction when I had my first jab but felt just like you do after my second, only lasted a couple of days though.

 

[Grendel]

You're restricting until the population is vaccinated because:

• Increased socialisation = increased transmission;
• The vaccine is not perfect.
• We have yet to have it confirmed that being vaccinated stops, entirely, transmission.

So, therefore, until everybody has been vaccinated, we still offer up a risk to elderly, infirm populations, and offer a risk of increased illness, and hospitalisation, for younger groups. That, therefore, still offers a risk to the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function 'normally'.

Once everybody has been vaccinated, then we reach a position of the fabled herd immunity, given that some people won't take it, anyway. At that stage, there is a risk, but a realistic risk compared to everything else in life. Before that stage, you're mixing a number of people who haven't been vaccinated, with those with a certain %age of protection.

As for third wave I'd trust the chief medical officer, with years of training, when he considers the future, and what is to come.

if Europe adopt this thinking some countries will be locked down until 2023

 

[dutchman]

Assume he means these

View attachment 19119

in which case they were a thing but they aren't anymore. Only found that out when I lost mine moving house and asked the doctor for a new one! Apparently they're useless even if you still have it as the system for NHS numbers was changed when they stopped the cards and everyone has a new number.

Mine is even older than that. It's the old brown cardboard type which looks like a library card. They stamp my new NHS number on every prescription receipt but I need a magnifying glass to read it.

When I bought an annual repeat prescription they sent me a snazzy white card with a NHS logo and my name embossed on it, wish I'd kept it now.

 

[Ian1779]

Here’s a question for my fellow lefties:

If, by way of experimenting with both the vaccine dosage schedule and the use of the AZ vaccine in all age groups, the U.K. leads other countries to adopt more effective vaccine protocols where otherwise they wouldn’t, and in doing so saves many more lives globally than have been lost in the U.K. through their previous incompetence.

Does that even out?

I don’t know - but only because it can’t ‘balance’ out for those deaths on an individual basis. I know we all get so focused on stats, but behind every one is a real person, family etc.

I guess the only way the government could redeem itself here in the UK at least is putting in the infrastructure to ensure that if and when it were to happen again we are infinitely better prepared and the other components (NHS for example) are also able to do the same.

 

[Ian1779]

In which case, we will never go back to living normal lives again. If the virus adapts and is still around for ten years, what are we going to do? Wear masks all the time and lock down each winter? You cannot uphold a society in that way.

Most vulnerable people have had the first jab now, by the time they have had the second, there really is no excuse.

Would it really be such a bad thing to ask for masks on public transport during winter months in the future? Look at how cramped the London Underground gets for example.

 

[shmmeee]

It would depend on what you are basing your Utilitarian ideals around. The benefit of your own commonwealth or the wider good. Surely, any Government would need to look after its own commonwealth first and make sure they get the best possible care based on the current evidence rather than experimenting on the general population.

I think that’s what it comes down to. Quite a statement to say that British lives are worth more than any other country though.

That’s another reason to ask lefties, as generally they don’t do nationalism.

I had the Pfizer one , no reaction when I had my first jab but felt just like you do after my second, only lasted a couple of days though.

That’s your immune system producing a response. It means the vaccine is working.

 

[clint van damme]

Here’s a question for my fellow lefties:

If, by way of experimenting with both the vaccine dosage schedule and the use of the AZ vaccine in all age groups, the U.K. leads other countries to adopt more effective vaccine protocols where otherwise they wouldn’t, and in doing so saves many more lives globally than have been lost in the U.K. through their previous incompetence.

Does that even out?

it might level out the incompetence but it doesn't earn a pass on the corruption.