Nick
Administrator
Scaremongering for a headline though.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
Scaremongering for a headline though.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
In what way? The regions have autonomy so there are some that are doing anyone over 18 years and old and others doing anyone over 30.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
I somehow have access to the booking page for vaccines so can search areas.
Around me in Hampshire is booked solid for 2-3 weeks. With only a few appointments 30 odd miles away coming up.
Around Heathrow for example you can book for same day. You would think if places have spare capacity they would send staff and vaccines to popular areas.
Around me in Hampshire is booked solid for 2-3 weeks. With only a few appointments 30 odd miles away coming up.
Around Heathrow for example you can book for same day. You would think if places have spare capacity they would send staff and vaccines to popular areas.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
Think capacity by airports has always been higher.
There are currently 0 appointments in Southampton or Portsmouth what's crazy.
Portsmouth the closest place with more than 1 appointment is Reading !
Great that the uptake is high. But think how many people wont be bothered to book as cant get one near home.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I mean are they making under x age take Pfizer
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Coventry and North Warwickshire CC have slots for everyday at the moment. I know someone who joined a new GP practice and was offered same day or next day vaccine slots.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Cities are going to be facing more demand as they have a younger population. I'm not really sure how they've factored that into the way the vaccines are allocated to CCGs. I've a feeling they've just done it on this sort if basis
patients registered with practice / total patients in England * vaccines available for distribution
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Now people are seeing the Indian variant for what it is (a load of scare tactic shit), we have the new and improved version... Just in time!
THE THAI VARIANT.
I can't really take it that seriously any more. Only so many times one can cry wolf.
THE THAI VARIANT.
I can't really take it that seriously any more. Only so many times one can cry wolf.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
As far as I know most of the vaccines ordered are Pfizer or Moderna.
Where they’ve surplus AZ, I’ve read about them having open days where anyone can call up and register for one but it’s all decided on a region by region basis.
People I know born in 81 are now being done, so it’s got much, much faster over the last month or so.
The actual number of daily cases is not dissimilar to the UK.
MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
'Dr Helen Wall, senior responsible officer for the Covid vaccine programme in Bolton, tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme patients in hospital in the area are not as sick as previous patients with Covid-19 and "vaccines seem to be working".
She says there are "significant numbers of 30 and 40-year-olds" going into hospital in Bolton'...
She says there are "significant numbers of 30 and 40-year-olds" going into hospital in Bolton'...
Nick
Administrator
CLOSE THE COUNTRY!!!
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Its odd as they still only have vaccinated 18% with two doses - the UK is at 36% so they seem to have just given up vulnerable first approach
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
No they’ve not.
The regions are responsible rather than the government and it varies from region to region - some regions are still doing over 50s only whereas others are much further along. Alto Adige is doing anyone 18 and over, for example…here in Veneto it’s still over 40s only.
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Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
I'd suggest they know a lot better than you what significant numbers means in relation to their capacity. If they've got from 0-2 admissions a day to 6+ that is a significant uplift.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Not really. Just that people still don’t understand how to read models, i assume that’s from this paper: https://assets.publishing.service.g...7_Unlocking_roadmap_scenarios_for_England.pdf
It’s pretty clear that both the vaccine efficacy and take up are better than modelled.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
But shows they are not following data as they are not reviewing it regular. Considering saga members have been calling for slowing down of lockdown yet we are ahead of there best case scenario is a joke
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Its not though in the grand scheme of things is it? Shall we stay locked down until its 0?
End of the day, all results coming out of these extra hospital admissions and cases are that those jabbed twice are in the very very small minority, and even then they arent as ill as past waves leading to them not being in hospital as long
Similar for those jabbed once but of course, higher in the admissions and intervention needed.
The Jabs are working
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Eh? It’s a paper released before we knew any of this stuff, it’s not a living document you update though they’ll probably have live models they use.
Sorry this is just more anti-intellectual expert bashing. You’re arguing the toss about a model that’s from what I can tell on that graph 95% accurate and was built on best guess data at the time *which you have to do*.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
A 300% increase during a pandemic where exponentials often apply is significant.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
The model for reopening was set out and we have to hit stages in it. That was set in the model and there has been nothing from HMG to show they are using live data. They set the models and that is it.
The models have been wrong from the start, Imperials Neil Ferguson has never predicted anything right.
Have a closer look at the data its not 95%. So hardly basing, But once again shows how wrong the models are.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
The point is that those jabbed twice are a minority in the general population (42% of adults) in Bolton's case. Therefore given Bolton has a population of 317k registered patients (probably higher actual population) then there are a significant number of at risk people still around.
MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
'
Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme that people who have only had one dose of the vaccine could end up in hospital, even if they are young.
He says the country has seen a doubling of cases of the variant first discovered in India every week - with about 7,000 cases last week.
"It only takes five or six doublings for that to get up to, say, a quarter-million cases, and then you could set the pressure on the NHS and avoidable illnesses," he warns.'
Currently 745 people in hospital compared to 34,500 at peak in Jan.
Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme that people who have only had one dose of the vaccine could end up in hospital, even if they are young.
He says the country has seen a doubling of cases of the variant first discovered in India every week - with about 7,000 cases last week.
"It only takes five or six doublings for that to get up to, say, a quarter-million cases, and then you could set the pressure on the NHS and avoidable illnesses," he warns.'
Currently 745 people in hospital compared to 34,500 at peak in Jan.
Nick
Administrator
Depends how you want to spin it for headlines I guess.
Numbers and stats can be manipulated either way.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No they can’t. Just people, especially journalists struggle with nuance and statistics.
Theres a reason you see these headlines in the Express but not in the BMJ.
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Did you even read his post? The chart comes from a model in a paper that used certain assumptions about efficacy and vaccine take up which are clearly laid out. We are way ahead of those assumptions so obviously its not applicable.
bUt ThE mOdElZ r WrOnG aGaIn
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
jordan210
Well-Known Member
The road map is bassed on the assumptions in these papers. So they did not model for this ? So yes the models are wrong if they did not model for being ahead.
Why has the road map not been speed up then ?
Why are the same people involved in the models saying we need to slow down the reopening ?