Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (114 Viewers)

[jordan210]

Heathrow is in Hounslow, which is one of the hotspots for the Indian variant, so I think that’s where they’re sending the extra capacity.

Think capacity by airports has always been higher.

There are currently 0 appointments in Southampton or Portsmouth what's crazy.

Portsmouth the closest place with more than 1 appointment is Reading !

Great that the uptake is high. But think how many people wont be bothered to book as cant get one near home.

 

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

In what way? The regions have autonomy so there are some that are doing anyone over 18 years and old and others doing anyone over 30.

I mean are they making under x age take Pfizer

 

[fernandopartridge]

Heathrow is in Hounslow, which is one of the hotspots for the Indian variant, so I think that’s where they’re sending the extra capacity.

It isn't, it's in Hillingdon albeit you travel to it via Hounslow on the tube

 

[David O'Day]

Coventry and North Warwickshire CC have slots for everyday at the moment. I know someone who joined a new GP practice and was offered same day or next day vaccine slots.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Think capacity by airports has always been higher.

There are currently 0 appointments in Southampton or Portsmouth what's crazy.

Portsmouth the closest place with more than 1 appointment is Reading !

Great that the uptake is high. But think how many people wont be bothered to book as cant get one near home.

Cities are going to be facing more demand as they have a younger population. I'm not really sure how they've factored that into the way the vaccines are allocated to CCGs. I've a feeling they've just done it on this sort if basis
patients registered with practice / total patients in England * vaccines available for distribution

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Now people are seeing the Indian variant for what it is (a load of scare tactic shit), we have the new and improved version... Just in time!

THE THAI VARIANT.

I can't really take it that seriously any more. Only so many times one can cry wolf.

 

[PVA]

How is it 'a load of scare tactic shit'?

The only people getting worked up by the coverage of it are those who want to shout 'OMG THE MEDIA ARE SAYING WE'RE GOING TO BE LOCKED DOWN FOREVER!!!!!!' when literally no one is saying that.

 

[David O'Day]

How is it 'a load of scare tactic shit'?

The only people getting worked up by the coverage of it are those who want to shout 'OMG THE MEDIA ARE SAYING WE'RE GOING TO BE LOCKED DOWN FOREVER!!!!!!' when literally no one is saying that.

he's floof mate

 

[Sick Boy]

I mean are they making under x age take Pfizer

As far as I know most of the vaccines ordered are Pfizer or Moderna.
Where they’ve surplus AZ, I’ve read about them having open days where anyone can call up and register for one but it’s all decided on a region by region basis.
People I know born in 81 are now being done, so it’s got much, much faster over the last month or so.
The actual number of daily cases is not dissimilar to the UK.

 

[Nick]

 

[MusicDating]

'Dr Helen Wall, senior responsible officer for the Covid vaccine programme in Bolton, tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme patients in hospital in the area are not as sick as previous patients with Covid-19 and "vaccines seem to be working".

She says there are "significant numbers of 30 and 40-year-olds" going into hospital in Bolton'...

 

[Nick]

'Dr Helen Wall, senior responsible officer for the Covid vaccine programme in Bolton, tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme patients in hospital in the area are not as sick as previous patients with Covid-19 and "vaccines seem to be working".

She says there are "significant numbers of 30 and 40-year-olds" going into hospital in Bolton'...

View attachment 20291

CLOSE THE COUNTRY!!!

 

[Grendel]

In what way? The regions have autonomy so there are some that are doing anyone over 18 years and old and others doing anyone over 30.

Its odd as they still only have vaccinated 18% with two doses - the UK is at 36% so they seem to have just given up vulnerable first approach

 

[Sick Boy]

Its odd as they still only have vaccinated 18% with two doses - the UK is at 36% so they seem to have just given up vulnerable first approach

No they’ve not.
The regions are responsible rather than the government and it varies from region to region - some regions are still doing over 50s only whereas others are much further along. Alto Adige is doing anyone 18 and over, for example…here in Veneto it’s still over 40s only.

 

[Saddlebrains]

'Dr Helen Wall, senior responsible officer for the Covid vaccine programme in Bolton, tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme patients in hospital in the area are not as sick as previous patients with Covid-19 and "vaccines seem to be working".

She says there are "significant numbers of 30 and 40-year-olds" going into hospital in Bolton'...

View attachment 20291

'Significant Numbers'

Really are bedwetting arent they

 

[fernandopartridge]

'Significant Numbers'

Really are bedwetting arent they

I'd suggest they know a lot better than you what significant numbers means in relation to their capacity. If they've got from 0-2 admissions a day to 6+ that is a significant uplift.

 

[jordan210]

This is current vs scenarios for the road map. We appear to be tracking under the scenarios but we keep being told might have to move away from full reopening !

Think we can say the modellers have got this once again wrong

 

[shmmeee]

This is current vs scenarios for the road map. We appear to be tracking under the scenarios but we keep being told might have to move away from full reopening !

Think we can say the modellers have got this once again wrong

Not really. Just that people still don’t understand how to read models, i assume that’s from this paper: https://assets.publishing.service.g...7_Unlocking_roadmap_scenarios_for_England.pdf

It’s pretty clear that both the vaccine efficacy and take up are better than modelled.

 

[jordan210]

Not really. Just that people still don’t understand how to read models, i assume that’s from this paper: https://assets.publishing.service.g...7_Unlocking_roadmap_scenarios_for_England.pdf

It’s pretty clear that both the vaccine efficacy and take up are better than modelled.

But shows they are not following data as they are not reviewing it regular. Considering saga members have been calling for slowing down of lockdown yet we are ahead of there best case scenario is a joke

 

[Saddlebrains]

I'd suggest they know a lot better than you what significant numbers means in relation to their capacity. If they've got from 0-2 admissions a day to 6+ that is a significant uplift.

Its not though in the grand scheme of things is it? Shall we stay locked down until its 0?

End of the day, all results coming out of these extra hospital admissions and cases are that those jabbed twice are in the very very small minority, and even then they arent as ill as past waves leading to them not being in hospital as long

Similar for those jabbed once but of course, higher in the admissions and intervention needed.

The Jabs are working

 

[Saddlebrains]

But shows they are not following data as they are not reviewing it regular. Considering saga members have been calling for slowing down of lockdown yet we are ahead of there best case scenario is a joke

Agreed, ridiculous

 

[shmmeee]

But shows they are not following data as they are not reviewing it regular. Considering saga members have been calling for slowing down of lockdown yet we are ahead of there best case scenario is a joke

Eh? It’s a paper released before we knew any of this stuff, it’s not a living document you update though they’ll probably have live models they use.

Sorry this is just more anti-intellectual expert bashing. You’re arguing the toss about a model that’s from what I can tell on that graph 95% accurate and was built on best guess data at the time *which you have to do*.

 

[shmmeee]

Its not though in the grand scheme of things is it? Shall we stay locked down until its 0?

End of the day, all results coming out of these extra hospital admissions and cases are that those jabbed twice are in the very very small minority, and even then they arent as ill as past waves leading to them not being in hospital as long

Similar for those jabbed once but of course, higher in the admissions and intervention needed.

The Jabs are working

A 300% increase during a pandemic where exponentials often apply is significant.

 

[jordan210]

Eh? It’s a paper released before we knew any of this stuff, it’s not a living document you update though they’ll probably have live models they use.

Sorry this is just more anti-intellectual expert bashing. You’re arguing the toss about a model that’s from what I can tell on that graph 95% accurate and was built on best guess data at the time *which you have to do*.

The model for reopening was set out and we have to hit stages in it. That was set in the model and there has been nothing from HMG to show they are using live data. They set the models and that is it.

The models have been wrong from the start, Imperials Neil Ferguson has never predicted anything right.

Have a closer look at the data its not 95%. So hardly basing, But once again shows how wrong the models are.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Its not though in the grand scheme of things is it? Shall we stay locked down until its 0?

End of the day, all results coming out of these extra hospital admissions and cases are that those jabbed twice are in the very very small minority, and even then they arent as ill as past waves leading to them not being in hospital as long

Similar for those jabbed once but of course, higher in the admissions and intervention needed.

The Jabs are working

The point is that those jabbed twice are a minority in the general population (42% of adults) in Bolton's case. Therefore given Bolton has a population of 317k registered patients (probably higher actual population) then there are a significant number of at risk people still around.

 

[MusicDating]

'
Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme that people who have only had one dose of the vaccine could end up in hospital, even if they are young.

He says the country has seen a doubling of cases of the variant first discovered in India every week - with about 7,000 cases last week.

"It only takes five or six doublings for that to get up to, say, a quarter-million cases, and then you could set the pressure on the NHS and avoidable illnesses," he warns.'

Currently 745 people in hospital compared to 34,500 at peak in Jan.

 

[Nick]

A 300% increase during a pandemic where exponentials often apply is significant.

Depends how you want to spin it for headlines I guess.

Numbers and stats can be manipulated either way.

 

[shmmeee]

Depends how you want to spin it for headlines I guess.

Numbers and stats can be manipulated either way.

No they can’t. Just people, especially journalists struggle with nuance and statistics.

Theres a reason you see these headlines in the Express but not in the BMJ.

 

[robbiekeane]

The model for reopening was set out and we have to hit stages in it. That was set in the model and there has been nothing from HMG to show they are using live data. They set the models and that is it.

The models have been wrong from the start, Imperials Neil Ferguson has never predicted anything right.

Have a closer look at the data its not 95%. So hardly basing, But once again shows how wrong the models are.

Did you even read his post? The chart comes from a model in a paper that used certain assumptions about efficacy and vaccine take up which are clearly laid out. We are way ahead of those assumptions so obviously its not applicable.

bUt ThE mOdElZ r WrOnG aGaIn

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

How is it 'a load of scare tactic shit'?

The only people getting worked up by the coverage of it are those who want to shout 'OMG THE MEDIA ARE SAYING WE'RE GOING TO BE LOCKED DOWN FOREVER!!!!!!' when literally no one is saying that.

he's floof mate

You two should meet up and take each others virginities.

 

[jordan210]

Did you even read his post? The chart comes from a model in a paper that used certain assumptions about efficacy and vaccine take up which are clearly laid out. We are way ahead of those assumptions so obviously its not applicable.

bUt ThE mOdElZ r WrOnG aGaIn

The road map is bassed on the assumptions in these papers. So they did not model for this ? So yes the models are wrong if they did not model for being ahead.

Why has the road map not been speed up then ?


Why are the same people involved in the models saying we need to slow down the reopening ?

 

[shmmeee]

The road map is bassed on the assumptions in these papers. So they did not model for this ? So yes the models are wrong if they did not model for being ahead.

Why has the road map not been speed up then ?


Why are the same people involved in the models saying we need to slow down the reopening ?

You clearly don’t understand the purpose of models. All the assumptions are clearly stated in the paper.

And the people involved aren’t saying that, he’s Neil Ferguson two days ago:


Professor Ferguson said: "The roadmap is robust to a certain level of increase in transmissibility of the virus and a certain level of immune escape.

"If it goes beyond those levels we may need to reconsider rate of reopening and maybe slow the next step.

"A scenario where a variant is 60% more transmissible and has a significant degree of immune escape could lead to another third wave the size the UK has just come out of. But if the level of transmissibility increase is only 20% or 30% and has only marginal evasion of immunity, then the third wave is predicted to be much smaller and therefore manageable."

Nowhere does he say the roadmap should be slowed down, he’s explaining the current unknowns that could impact the roadmap.

Every model has uncertainty in it, the modellers job is to express that uncertainty and be clear what is and isn’t modelled. It’s up to the user to determine how to act on that information.

I get you want out of this, we all do. But attacking the people giving us data isn’t going to help.

 

[jordan210]

You clearly don’t understand the purpose of models. All the assumptions are clearly stated in the paper.

And the people involved aren’t saying that, he’s Neil Ferguson two days ago:


Professor Ferguson said: "The roadmap is robust to a certain level of increase in transmissibility of the virus and a certain level of immune escape.

"If it goes beyond those levels we may need to reconsider rate of reopening and maybe slow the next step.

"A scenario where a variant is 60% more transmissible and has a significant degree of immune escape could lead to another third wave the size the UK has just come out of. But if the level of transmissibility increase is only 20% or 30% and has only marginal evasion of immunity, then the third wave is predicted to be much smaller and therefore manageable."

Nowhere does he say the roadmap should be slowed down, he’s explaining the current unknowns that could impact the roadmap.

Every model has uncertainty in it, the modellers job is to express that uncertainty and be clear what is and isn’t modelled. It’s up to the user to determine how to act on that information.

I get you want out of this, we all do. But attacking the people giving us data isn’t going to help.

He said yesterday that it now hangs in the balance. Yet the data is still better than he predicted.

Attacking.... Lol Neil cant even stick to lockdown rules as wanted a bit of action. He has history of being massively wrong.

 

[chiefdave]

He said yesterday that it now hangs in the balance.

Surely that's correct, just look at the numbers? A few weeks ago we were told not to worry about this variant as we'd have no problem just tracking and tracing every case and keeping it under control, no need to close the borders. Now its rising and rising fast and is by far the dominant strain in the UK.

Two days ago we reports over 3K cases for the first time since 12th April, today we're over 4K cases for the first time since 1st April. Hospitalisations are also creeping up.

This is the same pattern we've seen in the past so why on earth would anyone say we're absolutely going ahead with opening up no matter what? Just common sense.

 

[jordan210]

Surely that's correct, just look at the numbers? A few weeks ago we were told not to worry about this variant as we'd have no problem just tracking and tracing every case and keeping it under control, no need to close the borders. Now its rising and rising fast and is by far the dominant strain in the UK.

Two days ago we reports over 3K cases for the first time since 12th April, today we're over 4K cases for the first time since 1st April. Hospitalisations are also creeping up.

This is the same pattern we've seen in the past so why on earth would anyone say we're absolutely going ahead with opening up no matter what? Just common sense.

Cases are irrelevant. Data needs to be based on patients admitted to hospital and in ICU. Hospitalisation went up over a couple of days but has dropped again.

We have vaccinated nearly 39m people with one jab ad nearly 25m with two.

We cant keep everyone locked up forever.