Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (8 Viewers)

[wingy]

Thanks. Love a bit of covid data analysis. Do we know how many of the 300 vaccinated had to stay at least overnight and unfortunately died BSB ? (Also ages ?)

Interesting to extrapolate mortality at roughly one in a thousand , still not nice though,hate to sound so cold when discussing., also ten % (approx or just lower) of those hospitalised .
Sort of similar as in first wave.
Think anecdotally bods on TV are still saying victims are generally old and frail.
Which poses the question it likely that demographic have more than likely had two doses.

 

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[fernandopartridge]

One dose, less than 21 days:
303 total cases
36 A+E visits
6 overnight stays
0 deaths

One dose, 21 days or more:
1,364 total cases
178 A+E visits
42 overnight stays
3 deaths

Two doses, timeframe unspecified:
267 total cases
30 A+E visits
10 overnight stays
2 deaths

Seems quite apparent from this admittedly not large data set that one dose offers limited protection in the longer term. I might suggest that further acceleration of second doses and an expansion of first doses to all 18+ is what we need

I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well

 

[wingy]

I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well

Hope so,fancy that for my booster come Autumn/ Winter

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Interesting to extrapolate mortality at roughly one in a thousand , still not nice though,hate to sound so cold when discussing., also ten % (approx or just lower) of those hospitalised .
Sort of similar as in first wave.
Think anecdotally bods on TV are still saying victims are generally old and frail.
Which poses the question it likely that demographic have more than likely had two doses.

In terms of NHS burden I think overnight stay is the key marker.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well

I'll have a dig around see if I can find them

Ed: The Oxford study into mixed dosing reported initial findings last month, but they're still a way off from knowing conclusively how the immune response is affected

 

[SBT]

It doesn't sound like you leave the UK much, so perhaps to you it isn't really an issue.

Your point about 'frothing about one country' isn't as much of an insult as you think it is. You think the way the government handled the India situation was correct? Clearly it wasn't. I don't think you will find many people who disagree with that either. You cannot just throw Portugal in with India, otherwise (despite what you say) it is a 'close all borders' or 'open all borders' situation. Portugal is a completely different animal.

You are trying to infer that one is hypocritical because not wanting flights coming in from India automatically should mean that we shouldn't want flights coming in from anywhere else. It is ridiculous hill to die on, and deflects from the point of Portugal. Again though, you know that. You know it is a pathetic decision to take them off the green list, but it is easier to try and get upset with me than defend it outright.

If you don’t want flights from India because of its variant, then you also shouldn’t be wanting flights from any other country where the variant has been identified as spreading fast and gaining dominance (oh god, you still haven’t read the data you asked for, have you?) And you certainly wouldn’t want to be encouraging/funnelling people to holiday there, right?

Clearly the two countries aren’t directly comparable, but the government has decided that it doesn’t matter how many Indian flights you block if you don’t also address it coming in from other places too. Not much fun for the Club 18-30 crowd, I know, but apparently the June 21 reopening back here takes priority. And yet for some reason you’re upset about it.

You’re so close to getting this, but still you’re stuck on India/China = scary foreigners with the variant and Portugal/Spain = fry-ups and Only Fools & Horses by the pool.

What would I know though, apparently I don’t even travel overseas much.

 

[samccov1987]

The 21st always struck me as the target they would have to row back on. I could never understand how you could remove the social distancing rules before all adults had received their first dose.

likewise foreign travel; as much as we all would love a holiday why not just keep the borders shut until the vaccine rollout was finished?

I don’t think any of this is end of the world given shops are open and we can have a pint. However I think we’re looking at September once we’ve all had two jabs before social distancing is done and given some of the variants appearing that may still be needed over winter.

it’s not good but I can cope with what we currently have.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The 21st always struck me as the target they would have to row back on. I could never understand how you could remove the social distancing rules before all adults had received their first dose.

likewise foreign travel; as much as we all would love a holiday why not just keep the borders shut until the vaccine rollout was finished?

I don’t think any of this is end of the world given shops are open and we can have a pint. However I think we’re looking at September once we’ve all had two jabs before social distancing is done and given some of the variants appearing that may still be needed over winter.

For mostly selfish reasons I would like to see the numbers allowed at weddings increased to the 50 already permitted in Scotland. I would also say that as we press into July and August indoor mixing is much less of a concern in general as we saw last summer. Foreign travel I agree I see no reason for

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Looking more closely at the data it seems that secondary schools are showing the greatest acceleration in outbreaks. Funny that we were told schools were safe/don't vaccinate the teachers/schools don't transmit. However looking at the 'Delta' cases so far

9,500 cases since start of February
840 went to A + E
Of the 840, 540 had not been vaccinated.
Of the 540, 150 had to stay at least overnight
Of the 150, there were 11 deaths.

There have been 4.49 million reported cases of Covid in the UK, with 128k deaths. That is a death rate of 2.85% roughly (bear in mind these are reported cases).

The Covid death rate for that (Indian/Delta) variant works out at 0.12%, using the numbers above (9,500 cases and 11 deaths).

Today's tactic about Portugal is going towards softening the blow for them delaying lifting of final restrictions I think.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There have been 4.49 million reported cases of Covid in the UK, with 128k deaths. That is a death rate of 2.85% roughly (bear in mind these are reported cases).

The Covid death rate for that (Indian/Delta) variant works out at 0.12%, using the numbers above (9,500 cases and 11 deaths).

Today's tactic about Portugal is going towards softening the blow for them delaying lifting of final restrictions I think.

17 deaths once vaccinated and unlinked are included, but yes. I also wonder, and haven't seen any data on, whether the proportion of asymptomatic cases is going up or down as the variants become more infectious. The classic figure for vanilla COVID and the Alpha/Kent variant is about a third with no symptoms, for comparison

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

If you don’t want flights from India because of its variant, then you also shouldn’t be wanting flights from any other country where the variant has been identified as spreading fast and gaining dominance (oh god, you still haven’t read the data you asked for, have you?) And you certainly wouldn’t want to be encouraging/funnelling people to holiday there, right?

Clearly the two countries aren’t directly comparable, but the government has decided that it doesn’t matter how many Indian flights you block if you don’t also address it coming in from other places too. Not much fun for the Club 18-30 crowd, I know, but apparently the June 21 reopening back here takes priority. And yet for some reason you’re upset about it.

You’re so close to getting this, but still you’re stuck on India/China = scary foreigners with the variant and Portugal/Spain = fry-ups and Only Fools & Horses by the pool.

What would I know though, apparently I don’t even travel overseas much.

No, you clearly don't travel much, and you have shown your true colours again. Making it all about attitudes towards foreigners, when it is nothing of the sort. It shows you haven't got a clue, and actually just proves your quite strange agenda.

As I have written above, the Delta variant isn't more deadly. It also accounts for 75% of the cases in the UK at the moment. That means Pandora's box has already been opened. You do get that right?

The 'data' you posted, isn't even data. You were hoping I wouldn't read it and therefore could secretly score some secret points, but you have actually played yourself well and truly. That link shows a graph and the fact there have been 68 cases of Delta/Indian variant in Portugal. There have already been 9,500 here (at least). It is a shit excuse really, but you know that. You just detest the idea of the Albufeira crew more than you do the virus. That's your angle here, which is probably also a front for the fact you are a coward too.

 

[COV]

Looking more closely at the data it seems that secondary schools are showing the greatest acceleration in outbreaks. Funny that we were told schools were safe/don't vaccinate the teachers/schools don't transmit. However looking at the 'Delta' cases so far

9,500 cases since start of February
840 went to A + E
Of the 840, 540 had not been vaccinated.
Of the 540, 150 had to stay at least overnight
Of the 150, there were 11 deaths.

so what do you do for a living m8

 

[SBT]

No, you clearly don't travel much, and you have shown your true colours again. Making it all about attitudes towards foreigners, when it is nothing of the sort. It shows you haven't got a clue, and actually just proves your quite strange agenda.

As I have written above, the Delta variant isn't more deadly. It also accounts for 75% of the cases in the UK at the moment. That means Pandora's box has already been opened. You do get that right?

The 'data' you posted, isn't even data. You were hoping I wouldn't read it and therefore could secretly score some secret points, but you have actually played yourself well and truly. That link shows a graph and the fact there have been 68 cases of Delta/Indian variant in Portugal. There have already been 9,500 here (at least). It is a shit excuse really, but you know that. You just detest the idea of the Albufeira crew more than you do the virus. That's your angle here, which is probably also a front for the fact you are a coward too.

Can tell we’ve got an amateur author at work here, the amount of effort you’ve put into the character building is just marvellous. Filling in all those blanks about my personality all by yourself, great stuff!

PS - the data don’t show 68 cases anymore, clicking through would have told you that. But you tried!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

so what do you do for a living m8

Food taster, voluntary

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Can tell we’ve got an amateur author at work here, the amount of effort you’ve put into the character building is just marvellous. Filling in all those blanks about my personality all by yourself, great stuff!

PS - the data don’t show 68 cases anymore, clicking through would have told you that. But you tried!

You have just admitted that the solid data in the article you posted was wrong. You've well and truly peaked.

You paint a pretty good picture of yourself without me really needing to enhance anything too. Of course, that is epitomised by your extremely creative username, but really qualified by your counter arguments to the green list being the sum total of 'you are a racist' and 'I'm ashamed of my own countrymen who go on package holidays to cheap resorts'.

Amateur author, maybe, but if you want any tips on how to polish off that book you never got round to finishing, please let me know. I'm sorry to hear that it is still eating away at you.

 

[Sick Boy]

For mostly selfish reasons I would like to see the numbers allowed at weddings increased to the 50 already permitted in Scotland. I would also say that as we press into July and August indoor mixing is much less of a concern in general as we saw last summer. Foreign travel I agree I see no reason for

Not all foreign travel is for holidays, there are people who haven’t seen family members in years.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I was thinking last night (as you do at 330am)....I wonder if putting countries on red list at short notice (with threat of hotels) is actually worsening the issue.

It sounds counterintuitive but if you think about it, with the Indian variant, we stick India on red list and what happens, everyone rushes back in a shortened period packing planes/airports out, potentially bringing big lumps of a new variant back at the same time and potentially into specific locations. The same with people returning from Portugal after the CL final by the sounds of it. Fact is we obviously don’t have enough red list hotel rooms for the numbers still travelling, hence the lag between announcement and enforcement, and people are doing everything to avoid them....and then some not even bothering self isolating anyway but that’s another issue.

Not really sure what we can do about it other than close borders totally (not going to happen), enforce stricter rules for travel (ie providing evidence for reasons to travel) and/or potentially
reducing departure flights* out to these locations when you start to see transmission/variant issue. If they do this remove threat of red list hotels (or maybe just have shorter time ie five days) on return and focus on having closer controls/checks on a steadier flow of returning passengers rather than big lumps. Basically direct track and trace to focus solely on people returning from high/red list countries.

Just a dull Friday thought anyway.

*Nightmare for airlines regarding planes if you reduce departure flights though.

 

[SBT]

You have just admitted that the solid data in the article you posted was wrong. You've well and truly peaked.

Data being wrong because they update is a new one for me, I must admit. Again, you would have seen this if you’d taken 30 seconds to click through and read it, rather than just quote from the government press release. But maybe I just asked too much of you - that’s on me.

 

[shmmeee]

Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.

 

[David O'Day]

Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.

Pfizer and AstraZeneca ‘highly effective’ against India Covid variant

A Public Health England study has revealed the vaccines can be up to 88% effective after a second dose

www.theguardian.com

 

[Skybluefaz]

Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.

It's Friday.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.

Don't drag the rest of us down with it then

 

[Saddlebrains]

Horrible this is now. Had enough

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.

By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Not all foreign travel is for holidays, there are people who haven’t seen family members in years.

It should be for things that are absolutely essential. I’m sure those who went to India saw no harm in it and look where we are. Mandatory quarantine for all arrivals and I’d allow it

 

[Saddlebrains]

By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%

But thats looking more and more a waste of time now isnt it

 

[shmmeee]

By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%

It’s the “reduced efficacy after three months post second jab” but that’s worrying me.

April was “second jab month”, which means efficacy will start dropping for the most vulnerable around August time, which is also when the summer lull starts to end. Just hope we can get boosters out I suppose

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It’s the “reduced efficacy after three months post second jab” but that’s worrying me.

April was “second jab month”, which means efficacy will start dropping for the most vulnerable around August time, which is also when the summer lull starts to end. Just hope we can get boosters out I suppose

The plan has always been for autumn boosters and the orders for these have already been placed. Janssen will be online by then too.

 

[hill83]

Isn’t it always the case that any sort of jab wears off over time? Or have I completely misunderstood how they work.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

But thats looking more and more a waste of time now isnt it

No it isn’t when you look at the hospitalisation and infection data. Of the 9500 variant cases up to June 1st well over half were unvaccinated and this group was also the majority of those who had to stay in hospital.

The sad reality is that thousands will still likely die this winter despite the booster jabs, just as what happens with flu every year.

 

[TomRad85]

Isn’t it always the case that any sort of jab wears off over time? Or have I completely misunderstood how they work.

Pretty sure there are a few jabs you only get once. Usually when you are young.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[Sick Boy]

It should be for things that are absolutely essential. I’m sure those who went to India saw no harm in it and look where we are. Mandatory quarantine for all arrivals and I’d allow it

It you’re arguing for fully vaccinated people to be quarantining upon arrival, do you actually have faith in the vaccines?
Presumably everyone at your wedding will have received both doses?

 

[hill83]

Pretty sure there are a few jabs you only get once. Usually when you are young.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

Good point. I was thinking more along the lines of the flu jab. But I think that’s because the flu virus itself is constantly changing.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It you’re arguing for fully vaccinated people to be quarantining upon arrival, do you actually have faith in the vaccines?
Presumably everyone at your wedding will have received both doses?

That is different but unless I am mistaken you are not fully vaccinated? Everyone at ours will have had one, I estimate about 60% will have had two assuming no further acceleration of those doses.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Good point. I was thinking more along the lines of the flu jab. But I think that’s because the flu virus itself is constantly changing.

They make flu boosters every year by anticipating the most likely new strains to be around. With COVID that would be much easier as we are tracking all the time what the most prevalent variants are