Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (6 Viewers)

[Nick]

Not having a go Nick, well I am a bit.
You gone from string people up that go to supermarkets to let’s live with it and we’ve had the pleasure of reading you go on about both for months at a time. Let it play out. Go for a pint or something.

Nope, before it was pointing out that I am stuck in my house not able to go to the gym or see my mates but people would stand about in Tesco breathing over each other or fighting over pasta.

I will be having pints tomorrow and at the weekend

 

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[SBAndy]

If the data says no to opening up more.

Oh, I must have thought there's surge testing because of a variant going on in areas?

It will drag on and on until "Flu Season" and then every man and his dog will be dying of COVID again.

If the data says no to opening up more then that means that, at this stage, the vaccine programme has not been sufficiently delivered so as to prevent high levels of hospitalisation and death. You’re getting dangerously close to a “rather let bodies pile high” situation with the track you’re going down.

Yes, there is a new dominant variant. Yes, there is surge testing taking place. What of it?

 

[Skybluefaz]

Isn't it all just maths? Summat like roughly 5% of the cases are being hospitalised. If the current trajectory holds then we will be headed for hospitals being overwhelmed again, then people won't be getting the cancer treatment etc that they need not to mention the NHS staff being pushed to the limits again. My 5% figure may well be off, I'm working off memory. Everyone wants to see the back of this shit now. It will be demoralising if June 21st restriction lifting don't happen. Johnson won't want to push it back because it is similar to the Xmas thing. He wants to be the hero. We all remember what happened after that delay.

 

[hill83]

Nope, before it was pointing out that I am stuck in my house not able to go to the gym or see my mates but people would stand about in Tesco breathing over each other or fighting over pasta.

I will be having pints tomorrow and at the weekend

Don’t take your phone

 

[Nick]

Don’t take your phone

To be fair I don't come on here when in the pub. Shock I know.

 

[hill83]

To be fair I don't come on here when in the pub. Shock I know.

I did for a bit but haven’t for ages.

 

[Nick]

I did for a bit but haven’t for ages.

Good! There are better things to look at on your phone when in the pub.

 

[hill83]

Good! There are better things to look at on your phone when in the pub.

Pub apps for ordering beer being the main one.

 

[hill83]

Isn't it all just maths? Summat like roughly 5% of the cases are being hospitalised. If the current trajectory holds then we will be headed for hospitals being overwhelmed again, then people won't be getting the cancer treatment etc that they need not to mention the NHS staff being pushed to the limits again. My 5% figure may well be off, I'm working off memory. Everyone wants to see the back of this shit now. It will be demoralising if June 21st restriction lifting don't happen. Johnson won't want to push it back because it is similar to the Xmas thing. He wants to be the hero. We all remember what happened after that delay.

I’ll only really be demoralised if more restrictions come on top than we have now. Other than mingling with divorced women in Millsys I’m struggling to think what would be different on the 21st if we crack on for me.

Surely getting pretty much everyone double jabbed is worth it before going fully back to normal. It’s a pain in the arse yes, but we aren’t locked down really now.

Edit: When is this single jab one out? Be laughing then.

 

[shmmeee]

Thanks Shmmeee, I really like stuff like this (it’s the hidden geek in me) and agree that the modelling and whole lockdown, protecting high risk etc etc approach should’ve been far more innovative and considered more factors (rather than one size fits all). I’m not quite sure (it’s not clear from a quick scan) but if he’s suggesting that we should’ve focussed on vaccinating younger people to stop the spread, he’s forgetting one vital point. At the start of roll out they didn’t know whether the vaccines would stop transmission (and even if so, by how much). We still don’t really know. If we found that subsequently the virus (or a new variant) was still transmissible post vaccination and we hadn’t vaccinated those most at risk, it would’ve been carnage. That’s not taking into consideration potential lower vaccine take up by younger groups in early stages (providing to not be the case now but who knows earlier in the year)

At least we now have a chance that even if case numbers increase those most at risk will nearly all have been double jabbed so a significant majority should be protected from severe illness.

ps I would’ve liked to have seen the modellers assumptions clearly publisised along with any models released to the media

Every model paper I’ve read has been very clear about the assumptions, that’s basic modelling. I had this with ESB on the lockdown easing models. I think the bigger issue is the media is (and always has been) terrible at science reporting.

An addendum to that thread:

 

[Sick Boy]

Why all the references to June 21st? The country’s not a US state just yet.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Yep, looks like they are surge testing areas

Covid: Which areas are being surge tested for variants?

People who live, work or travel in various parts of the UK are being urged to get a Covid test.

www.bbc.com

Common sense really that cases are going to go up if they are targeting areas.

Again, numbers are easy to be manipulated.

We just need to learn to deal with it, the hospitals are hardly overloaded are they?

The hospitals have got horrendous waiting lists, they are very much overloaded. I suggest you watch Hospital on BBC 2 which shows you the issues caused by covid at even low levels

 

[CCFCSteve]

Every model paper I’ve read has been very clear about the assumptions, that’s basic modelling. I had this with ESB on the lockdown easing models. I think the bigger issue is the media is (and always has been) terrible at science reporting.

An addendum to that thread:

Yeah, sorry, should’ve said models released to/by the media. If a paper is going to be splashing 40k hospitalisations a day as a headline (don’t want to jinx it but still can’t see how that would be feasible now) they should at least report the context via the key assumptions. As that appears the worst case scenario it might well have included things such as vaccines having minimal/no impact on transmission, lower take up, lower effectiveness etc etc

Exactly right regarding the reporting being the issue as a few have discussed before

ps like that Paul Mainwoods point.

 

[Nick]

The hospitals have got horrendous waiting lists, they are very much overloaded. I suggest you watch Hospital on BBC 2 which shows you the issues caused by covid at even low levels

That's because the obsession has been with COVID and everything else pretty much on the back burner so now playing catch up. There are always going to be waiting lists, there has been for as long as I can remember.

Maybe if they had got some of the GPs doing their jobs efficiently they could take some of the load?

 

[fernandopartridge]

That's because the obsession has been with COVID and everything else pretty much on the back burner so now playing catch up. There are always going to be waiting lists, there has been for as long as I can remember.

Maybe if they had got some of the GPs doing their jobs efficiently they could take some of the load?

Obsession with covid? You mean treating people with severe acute respiratory illness?

 

[PVA]

Of course the 'obsession' has been with Covid!

 

[hill83]

That's because the obsession has been with COVID and everything else pretty much on the back burner so now playing catch up. There are always going to be waiting lists, there has been for as long as I can remember.

Maybe if they had got some of the GPs doing their jobs efficiently they could take some of the load?

 

[jordan210]

Interesting read

 

[shmmeee]

Interesting read

Random lockdown sceptic with no relevant experience in a pandemic related field says don’t have lockdown. Sounds legit.

 

[jordan210]

Random lockdown sceptic with no relevant experience in a pandemic related field says don’t have lockdown. Sounds legit.

So did you read it or just discredit it due to having a different view to you ?


Its not different to the members of sage and indie sage who have no experience in pandemics. But are now classed as so called experts.

 

[PVA]

That guy used 'models' and data to come to the conclusion in November that we shouldn't have a second lockdown so I'm not sure he's really one to take much notice of.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Random lockdown sceptic with no relevant experience in a pandemic related field says don’t have lockdown. Sounds legit.

Van Tam said 99% of hospitalisations were caused by the over 50s and CEV. This group has now been doubled jabbed and most of the rest will have had one at least by the 21st. You tell me why it’s necessary to keep punishing those who are at more risk from flu than COVID

 

[chiefdave]

Why the worry though? It was to be expected.

This is why you have modelling. June 21st was based on the Alpha variant which at the time was the dominant strain in the UK. It shows how much we expect cases to increase when things open up and given the predicted vaccination levels it was deemed safe to target June 21st.

This isn't a new thing its happened all along just that its been largely ignored by the government. For example last summer the modelling showed if you opened schools without offsetting it by closing something else cases would rise and we'd end up back in lockdown. Similarly at Christmas, the modelling show allowing a few days of mixing would mean a lockdown in the new year.

Now we've got the Delta variant as the dominant strain in the UK but there isn't certainly over how much more transmissible it is and how it will impact hospitalisations and ultimately deaths so the modelling contains variables. If you look at the Warwick modelling done for SAGE as an example it shows models for 10% increase in transmutability, 20%, 30% etc.

The issue being raised about June 21st is we might not have the data we need to make a more accurate prediction by then. This is because initially the Delta variant had low numbers which means a high degree of uncertainly in any analysis of the data. What we have seen is an exponential rise in cases, even when testing numbers have been lower. Cases started rising last Tuesday. Given the lag between cases and hospitalisations we're only now at the point where we'll potentially see the impact of the rising cases on hospitalisations. And there's an even bigger lag in getting data on hospitalisation by admission date rather than reporting date and vaccination status of those hospitalised.

So far it looks good, hospitalisations and deaths are fairly stable but if in the next few days we start to see a steady rise in hospitalisations we may need to delay the removal of final restrictions to gather more data to ensure its safe. The danger is if we get it wrong and open up too soon as we've seen repeatedly in the past due to the lag by the time we realise its too late we're back to needing a full lockdown which I'm sure everyone is keen to avoid.

 

[SBT]

That's because the obsession has been with COVID and everything else pretty much on the back burner so now playing catch up. There are always going to be waiting lists, there has been for as long as I can remember.

Maybe if they had got some of the GPs doing their jobs efficiently they could take some of the load?

It's about time we got answers from the real villains of this pandemic uhhhh......[checks notes] doctors.

 

[PVA]

Who to blame for the spread of the Delta variant and the delay to easing restrictions?

 

[Nick]

Obsession with covid? You mean treating people with severe acute respiratory illness?

While other people with things such as cancer got ignored?

Built massive hospitals for COVID that didn't get used.

Of course, by saying this it isn't saying it is nothing to do with cuts to the NHS and the govt. Of course it is, also how everything was COVID, COVID, COVID.

If we stay in lockdown until the backlog is cleared it's going to be a good few years, probably not even my lifetime.

 

[Nick]

It's about time we got answers from the real villains of this pandemic uhhhh......[checks notes] doctors.

Where did I say that?

I said if they took more of the load....

I spoke to my GP during it, without them even listening

"it sounds like COVID, you should get a test"
"it isn't COVID"
"it really sounds like it, when did you last get tested"
"I got my results this morning, it's negative"
"Oh, well see how you feel next week"

Cheers then, it took me an hour on hold to get this call chief.

 

[Nick]

Who to blame for the spread of the Delta variant and the delay to easing restrictions?

Read back, I have said stop flights multiple times or sort out a decent quarantine....

 

[fernandopartridge]

While other people with things such as cancer got ignored?

Built massive hospitals for COVID that didn't get used.

Of course, by saying this it isn't saying it is nothing to do with cuts to the NHS and the govt. Of course it is, also how everything was COVID, COVID, COVID.

If we stay in lockdown until the backlog is cleared it's going to be a good few years, probably not even my lifetime.

I'm not sure what point you're making now, the reason hospitals "ignore" cancer is because there are thousands of people coming in struggling to breathe with covid. You are suggesting that it isn't a problem.

 

[Nick]

I'm not sure what point you're making now, the reason hospitals "ignore" cancer is because there are thousands of people coming in struggling to breathe with covid. You are suggesting that it isn't a problem.

Of course it is a problem, it is not the ONLY problem though.

 

[chiefdave]

Where did I say that?

I said if they took more of the load....

I spoke to my GP during it, without them even listening

"it sounds like COVID, you should get a test"
"it isn't COVID"
"it really sounds like it, when did you last get tested"
"I got my results this morning, it's negative"
"Oh, well see how you feel next week"

Cheers then, it took me an hour on hold to get this call chief.

I've found the standard of GPs has dropped massively in recent years. No idea if its related to workload or changes in pay & conditions but its nothing like it used to be.

For 18 years I had the same GP, he's been my parents GP and my Grandparents (on my Dads side) GP. He recognised you when you walked in and knew your family history.

Now I go to my surgery its pot luck of one from an ever changing line up of GPs. They have no clue of your history, to the point if you go in for a follow up appointment they've asked you to make they have no idea why you're there. Just seems to be get you in and out as quickly as possible and if they can give you a few pills even better.

I've got a few ongoing health issues, hopefully nothing major, but I'm at the point where I've looked into going private as even pre-covid getting anything sorted was a nightmare. Going private was pretty quickly ruled out when I saw the cost.

 

[PVA]

Of course it is a problem, it is not the ONLY problem though.

No of course not, but Covid obviously has (or had) the potential to spread exponentially and overwhelm the hospitals whereas cancer doesn't hold that same risk.

It's terribly sad for those cancer patients, but Covid absolutely had to be prioritised over cancer cases.

 

[SBT]

Where did I say that?

I said if they took more of the load....

I spoke to my GP during it, without them even listening

"it sounds like COVID, you should get a test"
"it isn't COVID"
"it really sounds like it, when did you last get tested"
"I got my results this morning, it's negative"
"Oh, well see how you feel next week"

Cheers then, it took me an hour on hold to get this call chief.

I'm sorry, I sincerely do hope that whatever you had got sorted, and I'm assuming you were OK in the end. But I do find the idea of you spending an hour on the phone with the NHS during a pandemic to ask about your Covid-like symptoms when you already know it's not Covid, and then complaining that doctors don't have enough on their plate, to be weirdly funny.

 

[Nick]

I'm sorry, I sincerely do hope that whatever you had got sorted, and I'm assuming you were OK in the end. But I do find the idea of you spending an hour on the phone with the NHS during a pandemic to ask about your Covid-like symptoms when you already know it's not Covid, and then complaining that doctors don't have enough on their plate, to be weirdly funny.

No, it wasn't an hour on the phone to a doctor.

It was an hour on hold to book an appointment for the doctor to ring me back. The actual call was about 3 minutes if that.

The symptoms were nothing like COVID either so it was quite funny. They just wanted to keep saying everything was COVID so I would get off the phone.

My point was if GPs were more effective as a first point of contact then less people would rock up to hospital with smaller issues. My only other option at the time was a walk in at the hospital, I gave it a swerve as it isn't going to kill me.

 

[chiefdave]

My point was if GPs were more effective as a first point of contact then less people would rock up to hospital with smaller issues. My only other option at the time was a walk in at the hospital, I gave it a swerve as it isn't going to kill me.

Completely agree with this. Its virtually impossible to get an appointment outside work hours these days. Put more resources into GPs and local medical centres. With improvements in medicine there's a lot more treatment that you should be able to perform locally rather than directing everyone to hospital. Leave that for the major things.

But of course you can never implement something like that if you aren't prepared to give it the necessary resources.