Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (248 Viewers)

[Nick]

The rule whereby in a small high street cafe for example, you can take your mask off to sit down where you're going to spend the majority of your time, and, especially if in company, expel the most virus (if you have it), but you must put a mask on to walk out of the cafe.

It is fun to wind up pub staff though, some of them would be on you like a rash as soon as your arse lifted off the chair to get your wallet or something.

Literally, what is the difference?

 

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[chiefdave]

Javid says we’re looking at 100,000 cases per day this summer. If you’re under the age of 40, it appears there’s a good chance you’ll be getting immunity from COVID itself rather than the vaccine.

This is why were opening up. The vaccine works. It's keeping 85% of people who contract covid out of hospital. It's keeping 96% of people who contract Covid alive.

Is my maths wrong because what Javid said about cases and what Saddlebrains said about the impact of the vaccine, with the caveat I don't know where he got that info from or how accurate it is, equates to 15K hospitalisations and 4K deaths a day. That can't be right so what sort of numbers are we looking at.

Finding it pretty hard to get accurate information on how much risk there really is. You seem to have one side making out leaving the house means a certain death and the other saying do whatever you want there's practically no risk.

 

[chiefdave]

Surely though there is a point when there is an acceptance on the fact risks are now low and therefore economic interests weigh more favourably

There is. I'd be happier if the BMA weren't considering it an act of gross negligence to make mask wearing on public transport voluntary however. Wearing a mask on a train isn't exactly a massive deal, really.

Completely agree with Grendel on this, there has to be a point where the balance tips in favour of economic interests. My issue is I have no trust in this government to not greatly favour the economy over public health.

As Wisdom says you've got the likes of the BMA very strongly saying masks should remain. Whitty and Vallance have said similar and the SAGE minutes released yesterday give the distinct impression we're no longer 'following the science'. Doesn't help that when questioned at PMQ Johnson seemed to have no clue on what the modelling suggests we will see moving forward.

Importance of maintaining low prevalence

Although vaccination of most vulnerable groups will have reduced the proportion of community infections that lead to hospitalisation and death, there remain many advantages from an epidemiological perspective in maintaining both low prevalence and R<1. It makes it easier to prevent a return to rapid growth in the epidemic which could lead to the NHS being overwhelmed (e.g. because it gives more time to react to increases when starting from a low baseline, it is easier to spot outbreaks in advance of them growing large, and Test Trace and Isolate (TTI) can be more effective at lower prevalence). This has been shown in some countries that have very low or near-zero Covid-19, since occasional outbreaks can then be dealt with quickly, including rapid sequencing of all cases to search for new variants. Lower transmission also reduces the in-country risk of the emergence of variants of concern as well as slowing spread of any VoCs (including imported VoCs). Lower infection rates will also reduce impact of post-Covid syndromes and allow more NHS capacity to be used for routine care. Since groups from a lower socioeconomic position and minority ethnic backgrounds have higher risk of infection and lower vaccination rates then any increase in prevalence is also likely to increase health inequalities in Covid-related illness and death.

There is significant risk in allowing prevalence to rise, even if hospitalisations and deaths are kept low by vaccination. If it were necessary to reduce prevalence to low levels again (e.g., VoC become more pathogenic for others previously less affected), then restrictive measures would be required for much longer.

Personally I was fairly confident we were on the right track with opening up but fully expected to see things like masks on public transports, shops etc remain in place and the process for attending events being similar to those used for test events. What was the point of the test events if we're now completely disregarding what we learnt.

If the plan was to operate this way moving forward why didn't the test events reflect that so we had some actual data to back up what is being proposed? You could have things like that in place while still opening everything up to give people confidence. There's a lot of CV and CEV people, such as my Dad, now very worried they've been forgotten about and won't be able to safely leave the house after 18 months of sitting at home as they were told to do.

 

[wingy]

Is my maths wrong because what Javid said about cases and what Saddlebrains said about the impact of the vaccine, with the caveat I don't know where he got that info from or how accurate it is, equates to 15K hospitalisations and 4K deaths a day. That can't be right so what sort of numbers are we looking at.

Finding it pretty hard to get accurate information on how much risk there really is. You seem to have one side making out leaving the house means a certain death and the other saying do whatever you want there's practically no risk.

if originally one in a hundred died I assume its 4% of that

 

[chiefdave]

if originally one in a hundred died I assume its 4% of that

That makes sense. Do we know what the pre-vaccine percentages for hospitalisations and deaths are? Can that be extracted from the PHE data?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

32458 infections and 33 deaths

Deaths nicely low still tragic for each of their families of course

 

[David O'Day]

32458 infections and 33 deaths

Deaths nicely low still tragic for each of their families of course

Law of averages means they will go up in about about 2 weeks though.

 

[Deleted member 4439]

32458 infections and 33 deaths

Deaths nicely low still tragic for each of their families of course

I think what is still unquantified is the number with long covid and the effects. It's not just all about deaths.

 

[skybluetony176]

My main concern is that this virus has never been allowed to run riot in a country where a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated. It seems that the virus is most likely to mutate in an environment where it’s allowed to run riot. What if it mutates resilient to all the current vaccines? Are the government playing a huge game of chicken with the virus?

 

[David O'Day]

My main concern is that this virus has never been allowed to run riot in a country where a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated. It seems that the virus is most likely to mutate in an environment where it’s allowed to run riot. What if it mutates resilient to all the current vaccines? Are the government playing a huge game of chicken with the virus?

This my big issue.

i can see the logic in 100% outdoor crowds etc but things like mask wearing worry me

 

[skybluetony176]

This my big issue.

i can see the logic in 100% outdoor crowds etc but things like mask wearing worry me

It’s got Israel concerned enough to reintroduce compulsory face masks wearing. They have a higher percentage of population vaccinated, they have far far less cases of the Johnson variant than us too. So what does our government know that the Israeli government don’t?

 

[shmmeee]

It’s got Israel concerned enough to reintroduce compulsory face masks wearing. They have a higher percentage of population vaccinated, they have far far less cases of the Johnson variant than us too. So what does our government know that the Israeli government don’t?

The value of their commercial property portfolio?

 

[no_loyalty]

The mother-in-law has just phoned the wife to tell her she has been diagnosed with COVID, she is over 60 and has been double vaccinated.

 

[stupot07]

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

 

[David O'Day]

The mother-in-law has just phoned the wife to tell her she has been diagnosed with COVID, she is over 60 and has been double vaccinated.

Bad news but please take comfort in while not stopping infection the vaccines seem to be very good at stopping serious illness

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I think what is still unquantified is the number with long covid and the effects. It's not just all about deaths.

I think that’s absolutely fair to consider

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

My main concern is that this virus has never been allowed to run riot in a country where a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated. It seems that the virus is most likely to mutate in an environment where it’s allowed to run riot. What if it mutates resilient to all the current vaccines? Are the government playing a huge game of chicken with the virus?

I think scrapping social distancing and masks is just unnecessary

 

[David O'Day]

I think scrapping social distancing and masks is just unnecessary

Should of kept masks, some social distancing and table service in pubs

 

[Deleted member 5849]

This my big issue.

i can see the logic in 100% outdoor crowds etc but things like mask wearing worry me

As you said before, come Monday he might backtrack on that of course!

 

[David O'Day]

As you said before, come Monday he might backtrack on that of course!

Not so sure now, pushback has quietened down.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

My main concern is that this virus has never been allowed to run riot in a country where a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated. It seems that the virus is most likely to mutate in an environment where it’s allowed to run riot. What if it mutates resilient to all the current vaccines? Are the government playing a huge game of chicken with the virus?

My thought too. More infections = more chance of mutation = more chance of one cropping up that is more resilient/immune.

A higher number of potential mutations also gives more work to the labs to identify them as they'll have so many potential ones to find, so more likely to identify it late and thus take hold.

Things need to open up, but IMO it makes sense for some things to remain to minimise spread and prevent this happening and us having to go through the whole thing again.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Completely agree with Grendel on this, there has to be a point where the balance tips in favour of economic interests. My issue is I have no trust in this government to not greatly favour the economy over public health.

As Wisdom says you've got the likes of the BMA very strongly saying masks should remain. Whitty and Vallance have said similar and the SAGE minutes released yesterday give the distinct impression we're no longer 'following the science'. Doesn't help that when questioned at PMQ Johnson seemed to have no clue on what the modelling suggests we will see moving forward.

Personally I was fairly confident we were on the right track with opening up but fully expected to see things like masks on public transports, shops etc remain in place and the process for attending events being similar to those used for test events. What was the point of the test events if we're now completely disregarding what we learnt.

If the plan was to operate this way moving forward why didn't the test events reflect that so we had some actual data to back up what is being proposed? You could have things like that in place while still opening everything up to give people confidence. There's a lot of CV and CEV people, such as my Dad, now very worried they've been forgotten about and won't be able to safely leave the house after 18 months of sitting at home as they were told to do.

Of course they will put economy over public health. It is the perception that the government is a major catalyst in the economy, but less so for public health which is far more seen as an individual life choice. We don't see massive headlines about legislation that allows harmful toxins and pollutants in the air/water that result in organ damage/cancers etc that kill tens of thousands of people a year. But if they did and it would create short term economic problems as a solution was found you'd hear about it immediately and I bet the focus wouldn't be on the health improvements.

 

[Skybluefaz]

BRC demands easing of isolation as Iceland boss slams ‘s*** show’ for businesses

The date is currently set as 16 August, nearly a month after social distancing rules are set to ease

www.thegrocer.co.uk

Going to be a nightmare over the next month for some businesses

 

[chiefdave]

BRC demands easing of isolation as Iceland boss slams ‘s*** show’ for businesses

The date is currently set as 16 August, nearly a month after social distancing rules are set to ease

www.thegrocer.co.uk

Going to be a nightmare over the next month for some businesses

Not sure I get the thinking behind scrapping isolation given you can still catch and pass on covid if double jabbed.

The one thing there seemed to be a consensus on among the experts was the need for test, trace and isolate to be working properly once restrictions were eased or removed but we seem to be taking the opposite approach. Are we really still 'following the science', this would suggest not.
Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young - The Lancet

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Not sure I get the thinking behind scrapping isolation given you can still catch and pass on covid if double jabbed.

Don't you have to isolate even if you get a negative test? Is there a way of combining the two so if you're double jabbed, and test negative, you're good to go?

 

[Sick Boy]

Do the new amber rules mean that I could visit the UK when double vaccinated? Or is it for UK residents only?
It seems that non-UK residents could be later this summer?

 

[David O'Day]

Do the new amber rules mean that I could visit the UK when double vaccinated? Or is it for UK residents only?
It seems that non-UK residents could be later this summer?

Looks like they won't accept any proof apart from NHS proof so if you are vaccinated outside the UK you would need to quarantine

Shapps ends quarantine rule for fully vaccinated amber-list travellers

New regime from 19 July could open up many tourist hotspots to English holidaymakers

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sick Boy]

Looks like they won't accept any proof apart from NHS proof so if you are vaccinated outside the UK you would need to quarantine

Shapps ends quarantine rule for fully vaccinated amber-list travellers

New regime from 19 July could open up many tourist hotspots to English holidaymakers

www.theguardian.com

Ridiculous if it’s the same vaccines and other countries accept the NHS app

 

[Deleted member 9744]

Ridiculous if it’s the same vaccines and other countries accept the NHS app

I agree mate that sounds ridiculous. Unfortunately it's as unlogical as most things this Government has done during the pandemic.

 

[rob9872]

First time I've looked in for a while. Some of you are so obsessed with bringing the government into every little detail and petty point scoring off each other on this thread. It's been a far from perfect response and some mistakes made, but all unintentional to an unprecedented pandemic and I'm sure that's true of almost every country around the world, acting the way it was thought best at the time, acting on the data available.

Can't we just accept and appreciate the massive effort the whole country has made and in particular the NHS and volunteers in the incredible vaccination programme we have mobilised by people from all areas and a cross spectrum of society? Amazing at such speed to be where we are that we can now lift many of these restrictions from a standing start around 6 months back.

 

[Ian1779]

First time I've looked in for a while. Some of you are so obsessed with bringing the government into every little detail and petty point scoring off each other on this thread. It's been a far from perfect response and some mistakes made, but all unintentional to an unprecedented pandemic and I'm sure that's true of almost every country around the world, acting the way it was thought best at the time, acting on the data available.

Can't we just accept and appreciate the massive effort the whole country has made and in particular the NHS and volunteers in the incredible vaccination programme we have mobilised by people from all areas and a cross spectrum of society? Amazing at such speed to be where we are that we can now lift many of these restrictions from a standing start around 6 months back.

So what you’re saying is we should celebrate the achievements of the NHS that have been in spite of the government incompetence.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

First time I've looked in for a while. Some of you are so obsessed with bringing the government into every little detail and petty point scoring off each other on this thread. It's been a far from perfect response and some mistakes made, but all unintentional to an unprecedented pandemic and I'm sure that's true of almost every country around the world, acting the way it was thought best at the time, acting on the data available.

Can't we just accept and appreciate the massive effort the whole country has made and in particular the NHS and volunteers in the incredible vaccination programme we have mobilised by people from all areas and a cross spectrum of society? Amazing at such speed to be where we are that we can now lift many of these restrictions from a standing start around 6 months back.

Yeah but scrapping social distancing and masks and expecting 3m infections from July through September is maybe a bit of a risk

 

[rob9872]

So what you’re saying is we should celebrate the achievements of the NHS that have been in spite of the government incompetence.

Absolutely not. Two completely separate things. The NHS have been magnificent. In unrelated news I believe the Govt have acted on the data available and not always been perfect, but with the best of intentions and certainly since the second lockdown having learnt on mistakes from the first have done as well if not better than counterparts worldwide.

 

[shmmeee]

Absolutely not. Two completely separate things. The NHS have been magnificent. In unrelated news I believe the Govt have acted on the data available and not always been perfect, but with the best of intentions and certainly since the second lockdown having learnt on mistakes from the first have done as well if not better than counterparts worldwide.

TBF you’re in the “Coronavirus politics” thread. It’s going to be politics heavy.

Anyway, several people have posted how impressive the vaccination program has been myself included.

 

[Skybluefaz]

Absolutely not. Two completely separate things. The NHS have been magnificent. In unrelated news I believe the Govt have acted on the data available and not always been perfect, but with the best of intentions and certainly since the second lockdown having learnt on mistakes from the first have done as well if not better than counterparts worldwide.

Just one example, but why despite the data being available did they not move India to the redlist sooner?