Just read an article me on that study and it's very worrying reading.
Does seem OTT and is being disputed so hopefully it's way off the mark.
Has anyone actually looked at the graph and read the projections (and I include the Mail, Guardian etc - to say it’s irresponsible to print the headlines based on this model is an understatement - there are already doctors/hospitals saying people aren’t ‘bothering’ them over perceived ‘minor issues’ as they don’t want to be a burden and then actually coming into hospital too late with serious illnesses)
Who knows if we will end up being worst hit in Europe overall, and maybe this will end up being correct, but a few things that I noticed almost immediately which call into question it’s credibility (based on what we currently know)
According to the graph we would already be recording well over 1k plus deaths per day.
They are estimating that Italy will only have 3k more deaths, Spain 5k and France 4.5k between now and August - would be fantastic if true but is that realistic ?
Oh, and Ferguson said the actual data inputted into the model is wrong ‘Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.
Ps this paragraph sums it up ‘The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it’