Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (8 Viewers)

[CCFCSteve]

We could be talking 3000 deaths a day at the peak in reality. Scary stuff, I think we’d do well to be below 20k now.

Question is will we peak like Italy with looser lockdown? If so then it’s fair to say we’ve played a blinder, if not then questions to be answered.

I really hope to god that 3k of deaths a day isn’t where we will be at peak. Thats the number that recent US model predicted but Ferguson said they were using the incorrect Uk data on beds etc. That’s not to say it’s not possible but hopefully the model was inaccurate

 

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[clint van damme]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is it that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

I think this has been explained to you before but a lot of socialists voted for Brexit and a lot of Tories against.

It wasn't a left/right thing.

 

[CCFCSteve]

14k tests is still a way away from the 25k we were promised 3 weeks ago

that was promised for end of April which Hancock then upgraded to (a probably unrealistic) 100k

 

[David O'Day]

I really hope to god that 3k of deaths a day isn’t where we will be at peak. Thats the number that recent US model predicted but Ferguson said they were using the incorrect Uk data on beds etc. That’s not to say it’s not possible but hopefully the model was inaccurate

It's clearly inaccurate if it is using the wrong data.

The academic from Washington who was one of the team behind it was very sheepish and said their model is changing all the time.

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[shmmeee]

I really hope to god that 3k of deaths a day isn’t where we will be at peak. Thats the number that recent US model predicted but Ferguson said they were using the incorrect Uk data on beds etc. That’s not to say it’s not possible but hopefully the model was inaccurate

Basing it off the difference between reported deaths and the daily updates which suggest it could be double what’s reported in reality. So assuming 1.5-2k reported which is roughly doubling every week so around 900 today, peak in a week = around 1800, actual numbers all told ~3k. Perfectly possible obviously just conjecture.

I think after this is over we’ll see some analysis that’ll shed some scary light. The caveats of “deaths in hospital after a positive test” tell you how low ball the reported numbers are.

 

[CCFCSteve]

It's clearly inaccurate if it is using the wrong data.

The academic from Washington who was one of the team behind it was very sheepish and said their model is changing all the time.

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The model is already proving to be inaccurate but I never like to speak too soon when it comes to predicting the future

 

[SeaSeeEffCee]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

Guess you must have missed this Subscribe to read | Financial Times

and this 'Free Robinson' march images released

and missed the calls for this Far-right groups threaten to riot at London protests over Brexit bill

Weird how it's not 'leftie wankers with dyed hair' that the police are looking to question in that second one, thought normal working class blokes didn't go to protests?

 

[David O'Day]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is it that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

So many words yet so little comprehension of the English language.

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[ajsccfc]

I assume this thread was messed with, any chance the arguing can go back where it was or ideally in a bin somewhere?

 

[David O'Day]

The model is already providing to be inaccurate but I never like to speak too soon when it comes to predicting the future

I'd be dubious of any model that predicts outcomes much higher or lower than the average.

Still think we are looking at around 20k

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[Ian1779]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is it that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

The fact you said migrants in a boat should be drowned has nothing to do with politics, be it left or right.

It’s to do with you being an arsehole.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is it that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

Nice touch to have a big temper tantrum to try and prove you're not really a snowflake

Its not anyone else's fault you are who you are

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I assume this thread was messed with, any chance the arguing can go back where it was or ideally in a bin somewhere?

This is it now, this is our future

 

[CCFCSteve]

Basing it off the difference between reported deaths and the daily updates which suggest it could be double what’s reported in reality. So assuming 1.5-2k reported which is roughly doubling every week so around 900 today, peak in a week = around 1800, actual numbers all told ~3k. Perfectly possible obviously just conjecture.

I think after this is over we’ll see some analysis that’ll shed some scary light.

Yeah, god knows between reported and final actuals. Will be the same for all countries I’m guessing. That model is either inaccurate or not comparing like for like (so to speak) though. From memory it was suggesting 66k of Uk deaths and 20k for Italy, 15k for France and 19k for Spain by August

 

[David O'Day]

I assume this thread was messed with, any chance the arguing can go back where it was or ideally in a bin somewhere?

Your sensible thread is still there

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[Brylowes]

76 days and Wuhan has finally lifted its lockdown, they aren't being cautious and are going mad with parties etc..... Are they not at all cautious of a second wave or do they have/know something we don't??

I’m sure they are all to aware that a second outbreak could well occur ‘and the ultra strict measures
that would immediately follow, so it’s probably a mixture of ‘live a little while we can and a feeling
Of ‘if it’s gonna happen it’s gonna happen ‘whatever the approach to exiting lockdown.

 

[PVA]

938 deaths, bloody hell

Italy's highest daily count was 919, Spain's was 961.

France had a few days over 1000 but they included deaths outside of hospital, which ours don't.

We've absolutely fucked it. This is awful. Two week headstart and we're in this position. Dom and Grendel can defend the government's early response all they like, but the government has blood on their hands.

 

[David O'Day]

I'm dubious to add all out of hospital cases to the figures as most if these will not have been confirmed as covid-19 cases and coroner's have listed things as potentially covid-19 due to things like the deceased having a cough.

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[shmmeee]

I'd be dubious of any model that predicts outcomes much higher or lower than the average.

Still think we are looking at around 20k

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No way. We’re at 7k now and a week from peak, you’d assume as many after peak as before surely. Then you’ve got to add in all those outside hospital and those extra deaths not directly from CV. We’d do very well to keep it below 20k all told on current projections. There’s every chance we’re close to that already.

Have a look at the data from ten days ago: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

You can’t discount every death not directly attributed to CV, you’ve got to look at total increase in deaths compared to a normal year. Half the problem is the overloaded healthcare system itself.

 

[David O'Day]

Comparing countries is stupid as situations are very different.



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[PVA]

Total horseshit. The worst offenders are you spoit brat left wing lot. If things go against you your out on the streets trying to protest that whatever never went your way. Look at Brexit. Full of leftie idiots on the streets saying anyone who voted for it was a racist/nazi. Look at the Tories getting back in,same again,leftie knobheads screaming and shouting that it's not fair blah blah. Look at your yank leftie mates when trump got in. Fuck me what a load of spoiled babies you are. Some middle class leftie was in London protesting saying she hoped boris Johnson would die a nasty death. Ironically she wanted to be a doctor. Oh the irony. Its called democracy. Things dont always go your way so grow the fuck up and accept it. Ironically you preach democracy but then we have a democratic vote and it goes against you cry like the spoilt brats that you are. Who is it that's always out on the streets protesting and spewing their undemocratic views? Oh yes leftie wankers. You dont see normal working class middle of the road people kicking off. You don't really see right wingers kicking off either. Its you fucking lot. The country sits back pissing its pants laughing at you fools. Grow the fuck up accept things dont always go your way,dye your hair a normal colour,have a wash and get a fucking job.

Hahahaha

As if to prove my point. You don't get it do you? You're everything that you hate. You're a parody of yourself.

Dry your eyes snowflake

 

[chiefdave]

Most U.K.-Made Ventilators Won’t Arrive Ahead of Virus Peak

This raises the question of why Dyson and Babcock are using their own, new and untested, designs rather than those already in existence. Can't be an issue with patents or anything like that as it says the Ventilator Challenge UK consortium is using existing, already approved, designs from Penlon and Smiths Group.

 

[SeaSeeEffCee]

that was promised for end of April which Hancock then upgraded to (a probably unrealistic) 100k

Ah I see, the end of April deadline wasn't included in the article I read, although the official government site indicates it being the target within 4 week, which will be next Wednesday. Hopefully we can get to the 25k by then, I agree that 100k is looking incredibly fanciful with our current testing numbers.

 

[David O'Day]

No way. We’re at 7k now and a week from peak, you’d assume as many after peak as before surely. Then you’ve got to add in all those outside hospital and those extra deaths not directly from CV. We’d do very well to keep it below 20k all told on current projections. There’s every chance we’re close to that already.

Have a look at the data from ten days ago: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

You can’t discount every death not directly attributed to CV, you’ve got to look at total increase in deaths compared to a normal year.

Nope, you also can not say that all out of hospital deaths are actually covid-19 related.



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[shmmeee]

Yeah, god knows between reported and final actuals. Will be the same for all countries I’m guessing. That model is either inaccurate or not comparing like for like (so to speak) though. From memory it was suggesting 66k of Uk deaths and 20k for Italy, 15k for France and 19k for Spain by August

I don’t know about the model, just going off the data we’ve got.

We won’t be able to compare countries properly until the dust settles, also don’t really know if the quoted 20k target was all deaths or CV directly which is a big difference.

 

[ajsccfc]

Your sensible thread is still there

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Ah good. It sent me here first but I can see it now, false alarm

 

[shmmeee]

Nope, you also can not say that all out of hospital deaths are actually covid-19 related.



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You’re having a laugh. You look at the deaths that would normally occur when there isn’t a pandemic and compare to those that occurred when there was, it’s the only sane way that removed reporting variabilities.

There’ll be net positives too, I bet car crash deaths have dropped off a cliff for example.

You seem desperate to make out this is all for nothing, I’m not entirely sure why. Maybe compensation for your initial bad take.

I give you NHS and ONS data and you give me “nope”. What more can I say?

edit: also no one is saying all out of hospital deaths are Covid. Maybe reading comprehension is your issue?

 

[chiefdave]

We've absolutely fucked it. This is awful. Two week headstart and we're in this position. Dom and Grendel can defend the government's early response all they like, but the government has blood on their hands.

With different countries stats being measured differently its hard to be certain but when its all over I'm sure the data will be poured over and the numbers crunched so it is comparable. If that shows we've done significantly worse than other countries there will be questions to answer. As you suggest we should really be in a stronger position than other countries given a two week head start and the fact we're an island.

 

[skybluetony176]

I think this has been explained to you before but a lot of socialists voted for Brexit and a lot of Tories against.

It wasn't a left/right thing.

Always amazes me how many right wing snowflakes default to you didn’t vote for brexit therefore you’re a lefty.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I don’t know about the model, just going off the data we’ve got.

We won’t be able to compare countries properly until the dust settles, also don’t really know if the quoted 20k target was all deaths or CV directly which is a big difference.

Agreed. Just to clarify I wasn’t intending to compare countries by the way, I was just highlighting what the recent US model indicated (its inaccurate !)

 

[shmmeee]

Agreed. Just to clarify I wasn’t intending to compare countries by the way, I was just highlighting what the recent US model indicated (its inaccurate !)

As the saying goes: all models are wrong, some are useful. There’s a whole lot of models going around at the moment whose main use appears to be boosting the creators profile

I’m not interesting in a nationalist pissing match, more what the scale will be and when we can see some light at the end of the tunnel. There’ll be plenty of time to investigate the response once it’s all over.

 

[Sick Boy]

Total cases numbers up alot aint they mate? 3039 yesterday compared to 3836 today....

Good news that deaths and intensive care numbers down!

That number includes the number of people who recovered.

 

[CCFCSteve]

With different countries stats being measured differently its hard to be certain but when its all over I'm sure the data will be poured over and the numbers crunched so it is comparable. If that shows we've done significantly worse than other countries there will be questions to answer. As you suggest we should really be in a stronger position than other countries given a two week head start and the fact we're an island.

Just to remind everyone again (as I know ROS will be disappointed if I didn’t !), that two week head start was at least partially built up by our own actions (very good initial trace and tracking, request for use of 111 and to self isolate). Agree, that if we have wasted that it will be extremely disappointing and there will be questions to answer

For those interested, an update on hospital admissions and critical care beds being occupied. Admissions are 19555 (an increase of around 500-600 I think). With regard to care beds they’ve changed the datasets for the graph, it’s now based on CC beds occupied by Covid patients, which is probably more useful but means we don’t know the total available capacity. There are currently 3084 CC beds occupied by Covid patients. That’s an increase of approx 90 on yesterday. Which suggests still well within capacity (which was over 2k yesterday). Let’s hope it can stay that way

 

[Ring Of Steel]

No way. We’re at 7k now and a week from peak, you’d assume as many after peak as before surely. Then you’ve got to add in all those outside hospital and those extra deaths not directly from CV. We’d do very well to keep it below 20k all told on current projections. There’s every chance we’re close to that already.

Have a look at the data from ten days ago: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

You can’t discount every death not directly attributed to CV, you’ve got to look at total increase in deaths compared to a normal year. Half the problem is the overloaded healthcare system itself.

I think we saw that article where they were predicting 66k deaths, that still seems too high to me

 

[The coventrian]

Nice to see my post got the usual response from the frothing leftie crybaby's. Just cant help yourselves can you. When the Tories get us through this,boris and co will get another 10 years. How's it feel children?