David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Cool lets not worry about anything then as some bloke on a cov city forum is looking for reasons why it's not that bad.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
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Cool lets not worry about anything then as some bloke on a cov city forum is looking for reasons why it's not that bad.
D
Deleted member 5849
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I'm assuming the tests also include the routine ones, for people who are set to be admitted to hospital? They'd be an anticipated negative.
How do the NHS staff tests work? Do you have to have a regular test, or just when you display symptoms?
How do the NHS staff tests work? Do you have to have a regular test, or just when you display symptoms?
Did I say that ?!! I’m fully aware of ‘how bad it is’...I’ve not seen my mum since March (as she’s asthmatic and in her 70s) and my ex wife hasn’t been able to see her mum who nearly died from a stroke a few weeks ago because of Covid restrictions in hospital. I’m just saying the proportion of people who have it is still very small (even those of thought they’d have who actually do is around 2%) and also the risk to most appears low.
Ive also said before that for me it’s keeping an eye on the hospital admissions and hoping they remain low/under control which can hopefully be done by shielding those most at risk.
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skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
You’re figures are wrong though Steve. 1.2M tests is about 600K people. They count mouth and nasal swabs separately. Even then a number of people are having to do a second round of tests as the first were inconclusive/not properly swabbed/other reasons so the amount of people tested is probably lower still.
Understand. But the point remains the same Tony ie only a fraction of the population have got it. The sampling that’s carried out should provide a more accurate number
Edit - just trying to bring some perspective and stop widespread panic !!
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
This might be of interest.
Largest COVID-19 testing study shows cases are rising across England | Imperial News | Imperial College London
Latest findings from the biggest programme of home coronavirus testing in England have revealed that cases are growing in the community.
www.imperial.ac.uk
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
But isn't that because of the restrictions that have been in place? 41,628 deaths from 368,504 cases, that's more than 1 in 10 people who test positive dying. Are we really going back to the suggestion that we let it work its way through the population until we hit herd immunity?
I think the actual case numbers are estimated anywhere around 3-4m. It will certainly not be anywhere near 10% death rate from the various studies around the world.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Buying 5 years worth of toilet paper in one shop is widespread panic. Being concerned about the number of cases rising is not a panic, being concerned that the spread is already breaking out of the young people demographic and finding its way back into care homes, which it is, is not a panic, it’s common sense.
We’re in danger of not learning one thing from the first wave if we start labelling every voice of concern as widespread panic.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
There have been 57k deaths, the 28 day time limit (imposed retrospectively) does not change what was on the death certificate
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
You can't take lightly a rise in cases just because the death rate is relatively low. The death rate of course is a product of a healthcare system that is not overwhelmed. If cases rise to such a level that the healthcare system is overwhelmed then we really are screwed.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
This of course illustrates the issue with not collecting enough data but lets go with 3.4m from the Imperial College recent study. Even if you take the bottom end figure for herd immunity to kick in at 60% you're still looking at half a million deaths. Now it may be the mortality rate changes if the most vulnerable caught it in the first wave but its a hell of a risk to take.
Agree 100% Fernando and obviously steps should be taken to ensure we remain within capacity limits which is what I think is happening already, even though we are hopefully some way off.
I think people have misinterpreted what I’m saying, I’m not saying let’s just ignore the uptick and hope the best. I’m saying let’s keep some perspective (as per Daves attached report est 0.13% of the population currently have it), shield those most at risk, tighten lockdown measures in locations where there’s spikes and get people to refocus efforts on the basics (washing hands regularly, wearing masks in confined spaces etc). Government - sort out this testing lab capacity mess (track and trace app should be live in a week or twos time which will help if testing capacity sorted)
Will I try to still live a relatively normal life apart from that (within the measures), yes. Do I think me, as someone who lives on my own, should be able to see friends who also live on their own ?? Yes (probably safer in a bar bizarrely than around someone’s house !) Would I suggest, a massive house party to see all my mates at the same time. No.
Just common sense and some perspective. What I see/hear a lot is people not accepting reality ie either accept pretty much lockdown to keep numbers at a minimum (and with it millions out of work, huge numbers of mental health issues, children not getting schooling and probably loads of other health issues remaining undetected). Or we learn to live with it for the time being as best we can, whilst remaining within nhs capacity limits, accepting that numbers will spike so we shield those most at risk and take limited measures to slow the spread. Each to their own which one of those people would go for but they’re the choices at the moment.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Covid tests sent to Italy and Germany as UK labs are overwhelmed
Leaked documents reveal backlog of 185,000 swabs and tests sent abroad for processing
Brilliant
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
That's what happened in France but now the hospitalisations and deaths have started to rise there.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Didn't the 2nd waves in France and Spain start in the young and then spread to other parts of society?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Think that's with The deaths were low but then it started spreading among elder people.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Grendel
Well-Known Member
exactly if that’s true then we just take precautions and live with it and make out choices. I’m sure that’s one thing we would agree on if this is the case
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Not entirely sure how it works. Presumably if the Cambridge University one comes off we're at the front of the queue. If its another vaccine that is the one we need are the pharma companies going to be dicks about who owns the rights or just let every country manufacture it themselves?
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
Thats the company that is working with Oxford University, I would tend to believe what he says.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
The FT story about vaccines was taking into account some of the large pre orders from Europe and the USA. I think it is just highlighting that those with the means to pay will get first service.
TBH I was never anticipating personally being able to get vaccinated in the next year or two, rightly the priority should be given to the highest risk. I think it'll end up like the flu vaccination programme. There might be commercially available vaccines for the rest.
TBH I was never anticipating personally being able to get vaccinated in the next year or two, rightly the priority should be given to the highest risk. I think it'll end up like the flu vaccination programme. There might be commercially available vaccines for the rest.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
I think alot of the population believe we will be vaccinated by next year... It's not going to go down well when they realise it could be upto 4 years
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
You would be hard pressed to find a more dominant group of companies than the big pharma companies, they will call the shots. It will in all likelihood be the same as everything else, the richest countries first & the unlucky poorer countries have to wait. All the trials (I think) are partnered by a big pharma- the Indian company above are with Novovax for example, even the Cambridge trials are now actively seeking a "major partner to help us scale up our activities". Maybe I'm wrong and hopefully I am, but history would suggest that there will be some serious money made, with plenty of people waiting for a vaccine while those who can pay get it first. I'm ok with not getting it, I shouldn't be a priority, but not so sure about entire countries having to wait, which is what will happen.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Couldn't read the story as the FT have it behind a paywall but I've found an Indian report which seems to come from the same interview. He works for the Serum Institute of India and seems to be suggesting that India doesn't have the infrastructure or manufacturing capacity to delver vaccines to 1.4bn people.
Of course given all the cock ups here to date you wonder how effectively we'll manage a project like that but his comments seem to suggest that part of the issue with vaccinating everyone in India and developing countries is that so many doses have already been allocated to countries such as the UK.
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
Is nobody 'in power' talking about this or has anybody been asked about it? Its a monumental fuckup even by our standards
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Doesn't seem to be being asked. Which is even more pathetic. Nothings being done as they arent being held to account
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Wife's just been told by GP to get tested.
On line booking system giving the message- the on live service is currently very busy, can't get through on the phone.
I've a feeling we're about to find out first hand what you've been talking about.
Good news about the exemption for grouse shooting though
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No point calling mate. In the words of the person we spoke to “we just go on the same website you do and do it for you”
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
That can’t come as a surprise really. People need to watch Contagion if things like this are really coming as a surprise.