Would someone be able to explain how the peak is 10-14 weeks away and how that is calculated exactly? Will it be at its most dangerous between them weeks then fall away or??? I imagine most places will be under complete lock down then
Id assume you look at other countries rate of increase and a theoretical maximum saturation the virus would get to. Then you’d model what impact any interventions you’re planning should have and adjust accordingly.
You’re talking number of live active cases so what makes it dangerous is that there’s too much for the NHS to handle and people who would’ve survived with normal care don’t because there’s a lack of equipment or doctors. That’s why you try to flatten the peak, so you’re at or a little over capacity for a while rather than in absolute chaos for a short time.
Other factors like the effect summer has (probably not much on the virus bad as Australia shows, but the NHS generally has more free capacity in the summer) and whether we develop any treatments or ideally vaccines in the coming months mean there’s good reasons to delay.
