Do you want to discuss boring politics? (14 Viewers)

[CCFCSteve]

Though this is also bollocks. By definition it’s not the poorest pensioners is it Diane you lemon?

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As bad as the moron that said pensioners need money cos they fought in the war.

Yeah, I feel a bit for the government on this. They obviously want to just remove the hand out for those that don’t need it. They released what they were going to do to early give pensioners as much time as possible to prepare. Unfortunately this has led to a rushed, unclear position on how they can help ‘borderline’ (financially) pensioners in need

They’d have been better off just sticking it in the upcoming budget but for next year with a clearer, thought out plan

 

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, I feel a bit for the government on this. They obviously want to just remove the hand out for those that don’t need it. They released what they were going to do to early give pensioners as much time as possible to prepare. Unfortunately this has led to a rushed, unclear position on how they can help ‘borderline’ (financially) pensioners in need

They’d have been better off just sticking it in the upcoming budget but for next year with a clearer, thought out plan

Universal systems prevent people falling through the cracks like this and also reduce the beauracracy in means testing. For more at risk groups like pensioners, even more so.

Going after this sure looks far worse than some tax rises elsewhere.

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah, I feel a bit for the government on this. They obviously want to just remove the hand out for those that don’t need it. They released what they were going to do to early give pensioners as much time as possible to prepare. Unfortunately this has led to a rushed, unclear position on how they can help ‘borderline’ (financially) pensioners in need

They’d have been better off just sticking it in the upcoming budget but for next year with a clearer, thought out plan

Thing is by linking it to pension credit all they can do is increase the number of people on pension credit which will surely eat up any savings made?

Of course they could guarantee every pensioner a well insulated house. That would be on brand. But you can’t do it before winter and the inevitable stories of Doris who was £1 over the threshold freezing to death.

 

[shmmeee]

But it still potentially leads to the problems discussed before. The less perceived control over the deficit the more the markets will charge on the debt, to pay the interest on the debt you need to print more $/£ (as you’re running a deficit), if you print more $/£ you debase the currency ie people get less for their $/£.

all this happens with assets increasing in value in $/£ terms, the rich get richer as they own the assets and the poor getting poorer as they can’t afford the buy the appreciating assets and most of their income goes on the inflated prices (in $/£ terms) just to live

I agree with the fundamental point that the USA cant run out of cash, it’s just that over time that $ is just worth less

People have been saying this an out the US for decades though and it hasn’t happened.

One day the US’s advantages will run out but not any time soon. Tons of land mass, arable, rare minerals, raw materials, easy to defend with no real local conflicts to worry about. Even if you bombed the place to the ground within two decades it would have one of the strongest economies on the planet just because of natural advantages.

They can get away with almost anything, just like the Chinese, thanks to a monster economy.

We really if were honest with ourselves need to stop comparing ourselves to the US and start comparing ourselves to Eastern European and Asian tiger type economies.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Thing is by linking it to pension credit all they can do is increase the number of people on pension credit which will surely eat up any savings made?

Of course they could guarantee every pensioner a well insulated house. That would be on brand. But you can’t do it before winter and the inevitable stories of Doris who was £1 over the threshold freezing to death.

Yeah, I agree, I’m not sure it’ll save much if anything, once alls done, but might ultimately be a better use of cash ie more going to the poorest and less going to those that don’t need it. Messy for the government though and that’s why I’d have done it for next winter rather than this (with far clearer messaging about assistance etc)

 

[CCFCSteve]

People have been saying this an out the US for decades though and it hasn’t happened.

One day the US’s advantages will run out but not any time soon. Tons of land mass, arable, rare minerals, raw materials, easy to defend with no real local conflicts to worry about. Even if you bombed the place to the ground within two decades it would have one of the strongest economies on the planet just because of natural advantages.

They can get away with almost anything, just like the Chinese, thanks to a monster economy.

We really if we’re honest with ourselves need to stop comparing ourselves to the US and start comparing ourselves to Eastern European and Asian tiger type economies.

Agree, US is a very different beast. The points around deficit, printing, debasement etc remain though - they can get away with more than us though

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, I agree, I’m not sure it’ll save much if anything, once alls done, but might ultimately be a better use of cash ie more going to the poorest and less going to those that don’t need it. Messy for the government though and that’s why I’d have done it for next winter rather than this (with far clearer messaging about assistance etc)

How do you decide who doesn’t need it?

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah, I agree, I’m not sure it’ll save much if anything, once alls done, but might ultimately be a better use of cash ie more going to the poorest and less going to those that don’t need it. Messy for the government though and that’s why I’d have done it for next winter rather than this (with far clearer messaging about assistance etc)

To steel man Starmer and Reeves I think that’s what they’re going for. They’ve said they want more people to claim pension credit. But politically it’s arse about face.

It’s not a £22bn hole, this issue is a £1.6bn hole and that can be long grassed a bit more. Should have lead with getting everyone deserving on pension credit, insulating homes (for the cost so far of the WFP we could have insulated something like 90% of houses in the country, just saying), then telegraph the WFP ending because “yay pensioners don’t freeze now and the poorest get help”.

Could have given Miliband something more concrete to spend on, with tangible progress towards the “we will lower bills” manifesto pledge.

I’m just a systems analysts son from Earlsdon though, not one of your fancy big city Labour strategists.

 

[shmmeee]

How do you decide who doesn’t need it?

Thermometer.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Thermometer.

‘Reeves made my granny sneeze’

Heard it here first

 

[MalcSB]

Thermometer.

I suppose this would work a bit like mythical TV detector vans. Teams would swoop on areas, knocking on doors with a legal right of entry and armed with digital thermometers to do random spot checks. Anyone with a domestic temperature of greater than 18 degrees would immediately have their payments stopped in perpetuity.

Neighbourhood watch schemes armed with thermal cameras could roam the streets at night in support of closing the black hole left by the Tories.

 

[MalcSB]

Thing is by linking it to pension credit all they can do is increase the number of people on pension credit which will surely eat up any savings made?

Of course they could guarantee every pensioner a well insulated house. That would be on brand. But you can’t do it before winter and the inevitable stories of Doris who was £1 over the threshold freezing to death.

Apparently in 2017, Labour were saying that Theresa May’s proposal to stop the payment would result in over 4,000 additional excess deaths over winter.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Apparently in 2017, Labour were saying that Theresa May’s proposal to stop the payment would result in over 4,000 additional excess deaths over winter.

I’m sure you voted for Jezza in that election Malcolm

 

[shmmeee]

The more I think about it the more it makes sense as a strategy. Talking about fixing foundations, getting the long run right. Talk about the money wasted by the Tories on WFP while cancelling home insulation that was planned.

1.2m households where pensioners rely on state pension for 75% of their income. Not all will be too cold but if you assume they are that’s what 1-2 years of WFP to insulate them all? Hits all the major notes of the campaign: long term fiscal responsibility not short term politics, climate action, reduced bills, new jobs, Tory profligacy. Seems like an open goal TBH for a minor short term cost and major long term savings.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

The more I think about it the more it makes sense as a strategy. Talking about fixing foundations, getting the long run right. Talk about the money wasted by the Tories on WFP while cancelling home insulation that was planned.

1.2m households where pensioners rely on state pension for 75% of their income. Not all will be too cold but if you assume they are that’s what 1-2 years of WFP to insulate them all? Hits all the major notes of the campaign: long term fiscal responsibility not short term politics, climate action, reduced bills, new jobs, Tory profligacy. Seems like an open goal TBH for a minor short term cost and major long term savings.

Which makes sense, but it’s not what they’ve done and it now just looks cold in more than one sense.

 

[shmmeee]

Which makes sense, but it’s not what they’ve done and it now just looks cold in more than one sense.

Just crazy bad political instincts. Labour rights problem is always fighting the last election. Its not 2010.

 

[MalcSB]

I’m sure you voted for Jezza in that election Malcolm

Didn’t need to, the plan was dropped.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Just crazy bad political instincts. Labour rights problem is always fighting the last election. Its not 2010.

Imagine taking the whip from an MP over this, it’s bonkers.

 

[MalcSB]

To steel man Starmer and Reeves I think that’s what they’re going for. They’ve said they want more people to claim pension credit. But politically it’s arse about face.

It’s not a £22bn hole, this issue is a £1.6bn hole and that can be long grassed a bit more. Should have lead with getting everyone deserving on pension credit, insulating homes (for the cost so far of the WFP we could have insulated something like 90% of houses in the country, just saying), then telegraph the WFP ending because “yay pensioners don’t freeze now and the poorest get help”.

Could have given Miliband something more concrete to spend on, with tangible progress towards the “we will lower bills” manifesto pledge.

I’m just a systems analysts son from Earlsdon though, not one of your fancy big city Labour strategists.

It seems to have gone very quiet about the lowering bills pledge, almost as if it’s been dropped.

 

[fernandopartridge]

But it still potentially leads to the problems discussed before. The less perceived control over the deficit the more the markets will charge on the debt, to pay the interest on the debt you need to print more $/£ (as you’re running a deficit), if you print more $/£ you debase the currency ie people get less for their $/£.

all this happens with assets increasing in value in $/£ terms, the rich get richer as they own the assets and the poor getting poorer as they can’t afford the buy the appreciating assets and most of their income goes on the inflated prices (in $/£ terms) just to live

I agree with the fundamental point that the USA cant run out of cash, it’s just that over time that $ is just worth less

The cause of that asset bubble isn't deficit spending, it's interest rates.

What's worse? Investors gaining higher interest on government bonds paid for in £ which you've agreed cannot run out, or investors using low borrowing costs to buy up assets and inflate their value?

 

[fernandopartridge]

Just crazy bad political instincts. Labour rights problem is always fighting the last election. Its not 2010.

Their other problem is thinking that these 'clever' little political moves are impressing anybody but a few weird politics geeks and the Westminster lobby.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Their other problem is thinking that these 'clever' little political moves are impressing anybody but a few weird politics geeks and the Westminster lobby.

I don’t think it’s impressing anyone except Rishi Sunak. Not often a Tory gets to be a champion for the welfare state

 

[chiefdave]

Thing is by linking it to pension credit all they can do is increase the number of people on pension credit which will surely eat up any savings made?

Of course they could guarantee every pensioner a well insulated house. That would be on brand. But you can’t do it before winter and the inevitable stories of Doris who was £1 over the threshold freezing to death.

The estimates are around 40% of those who are entitled to pension credit aren't claiming it, largely because they don't know it exists. That's the best part of a million people. So from what you save on cutting the winter fuel payment how much are you going to spend on a combination of administering the change, promoting pension credit and paying out to new applicants?

Would not be surprised if it turns out that it costs more than it saves.

Pension credit is a shit system anyway, been doing it for my mum. You have to do the initial application, which is overly complicated and takes forever to get a response from. But then when you find out you are entitled to it you only get the basic pension credit payment automatically. Other things, such as council tax reduction, free tv license etc etc, you have to claim individually.

So you have to find out what you're actually entitled to, then find out how to apply for each individual thing and make separate applications for everything you want to claim.

Some of the applications are insanely complex, still haven't managed to figure out the Cov Council one for council tax. Its almost like they want you to give up and not get what you're entitled to.

 

[wingy]

They could rectify this by applying the council tax bandings from a/d upwards, they'd be fools not to take this option!!

 

[wingy]

I suppose this would work a bit like mythical TV detector vans. Teams would swoop on areas, knocking on doors with a legal right of entry and armed with digital thermometers to do random spot checks. Anyone with a domestic temperature of greater than 18 degrees would immediately have their payments stopped in perpetuity.

Neighbourhood watch schemes armed with thermal cameras could roam the streets at night in support of closing the black hole left by the Tories.

Ah,now that's what they are, catching real criminals!

 

[MalcSB]

The estimates are around 40% of those who are entitled to pension credit aren't claiming it, largely because they don't know it exists. That's the best part of a million people. So from what you save on cutting the winter fuel payment how much are you going to spend on a combination of administering the change, promoting pension credit and paying out to new applicants?

Would not be surprised if it turns out that it costs more than it saves.

Pension credit is a shit system anyway, been doing it for my mum. You have to do the initial application, which is overly complicated and takes forever to get a response from. But then when you find out you are entitled to it you only get the basic pension credit payment automatically. Other things, such as council tax reduction, free tv license etc etc, you have to claim individually.

So you have to find out what you're actually entitled to, then find out how to apply for each individual thing and make separate applications for everything you want to claim.

Some of the applications are insanely complex, still haven't managed to figure out the Cov Council one for council tax. Its almost like they want you to give up and not get what you're entitled to.

As if!

 

[CCFCSteve]

The cause of that asset bubble isn't deficit spending, it's interest rates.

What's worse? Investors gaining higher interest on government bonds paid for in £ which you've agreed cannot run out, or investors using low borrowing costs to buy up assets and inflate their value?

I never said it was deficit spending that caused the asset bubble though. In no expert but there are various things at play…

The asset bubble was caused loose monetary policy - QE and minimal rates for way too long

QE has also caused a debasement of currency and to some extent some inflation. There’s an argument some of the US spending also caused some inflation — covid cheques etc

Inflation/currency debasement sees assets rise in $/£ terms which means they become harder for poorer people to buy and those that own the assets become ‘richer’

Inflation has also led to central banks having to raise rates to suppress it, meaning governments have to pay more interest on debt (and housing costs increase for ordinary people, renters struggle even more to get on housing ladder)

Governments can’t pay interest on debt without money printing/QE

…..and round we go

 

[Nick]

Least the train drivers will be warm

 

[Grendel]

53 Labour MPs did not vote for the motion - Is Abbot in again now? If so I assume she loses the whip again.

 

[Nick]

53 Labour MPs did not vote for the motion - Is Abbot in again now? If so I assume she loses the whip again.

Madness.

Who voted against it?

 

[Grendel]

Madness.

Who voted against it?

Oddly most couldn’t make it to the vote

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Oddly most couldn’t make it to the vote

I note that the independent member for Coventry South took part

 

[wingy]

I note that the independent member for Coventry South took part

Is that the real socialist candidate?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Is that the real socialist candidate?

I think it’s the one known for ‘raisin’ trouble

 

[Ian1779]

53 Labour MPs did not vote for the motion - Is Abbot in again now? If so I assume she loses the whip again.

Did she abstain or vote against?