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MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
They could have whacked the 2p back on NI that the previous government put on. Shot themselves in the foot promising no tax increases but even then they could have, with ONS backing, used the 'black hole' as an excuse. Say it was totally uncosted and they have no choice.

Sure people would be mad but as has been said if it works out we're only in year one. It would be long forgotten as long as people feel better off when the next election comes around.
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Did you mean OBR, not ONS?
 
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Got things the wrong way round. Needed to focus on growth first, if successful then tax revenues rise anyway which may have mitigated some of the requirements to increase some taxes. Instead implemented tax rises first which are likely to suppress growth, especially employer NIC*

Also as has been said numerous times before, it was a massive error to try to talk down the economy following the election, which sucked all the post election momentum out of it. Shouldve just focussed on lack of public services investment etc under the Tories messaging and the requirement to fix this which will cost everyone unless we improve growth and productivity

*this was only required due to silly pre election promise not to increase main tax generators
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That would have been a very Tory way of going about things though.
 
Nick

Nick

Administrator
chiefdave said:
They could have whacked the 2p back on NI that the previous government put on. Shot themselves in the foot promising no tax increases but even then they could have, with ONS backing, used the 'black hole' as an excuse. Say it was totally uncosted and they have no choice.

Sure people would be mad but as has been said if it works out we're only in year one. It would be long forgotten as long as people feel better off when the next election comes around.
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Tenner says Im not better off.
 
duffer

duffer

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
That would have been a very Tory way of going about things though.
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And hence, would almost certainly not have worked. 🙂

If we want better services then we're going to need to pay for them.

And you're not going to get growth by sticking your thumb in the eye of our biggest and nearest trading partner based on a total fiction (oven ready deal, oh dear).

I don't want to redo the Brexit argument, but Labour's absolutism on Europe is madness, and a milquetoast, centrist approach to redistributive taxation isn't going to work either.

No one votes for the OBR or the Bank of England; we need a more imaginative and braver approach to economics and taxation than we're going to get from either the Tories or Labour, if we're going to dig our way out of this hole, imho.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Provide better services first and make people feel more willing to pay for them. You can't put taxes up today on the promise of better services tomorrow.
 
Nick

Nick

Administrator
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
Interest rates won’t be coming down as a result of budget stoked inflation.
Starmer tries to deny a link between mortgage rates and government decisions, claiming rates are a decision for individual lenders.

Of course, he is broadly correct but ignores the fact that individual lenders base their decisions on a range of information and data, much of which is impacted by government decisions.

He really is a total clown,
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
Interest rates won’t be coming down as a result of budget stoked inflation.
Starmer tries to deny a link between mortgage rates and government decisions, claiming rates are a decision for individual lenders.

Of course, he is broadly correct but ignores the fact that individual lenders base their decisions on a range of information and data, much of which is impacted by government decisions.

He really is a total clown,
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Within seconds of the BoE lowering the rate I get an email saying the interest rate on my savings account is going down. Few days later same place emails to say mortgage rates aren't affected by changes in the BoE rate change as 'this has already been factored in', while also saying their mortgage interest rates are going up.

We get treated like idiots.
 
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
PVA said:
Not as much voter remorse as those who voted Tory in 2019 according to that article.
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I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
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It seems another 0.5% hike is expected just from the budget tax hikes being passed to the customers
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
I thought that the score of only 29% of Labour voters feeling better off whilst 20% feel worse off was a surprise given how competent people seemed to feel a Labour government would be.

Still, its early days. Not all of the inflationary consequences of the budget have fed through yet.
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Just shows it's a bit of a nonsense really and totally prejudiced.

There's no way that 29% of Labour voters are better off and 4% of Reform voters are better off. Labour voters are likely to feel or claim they are better off even if they aren't, and Reform voters are going to feel or claim they are worse off even if they aren't.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
What is going to turn Labour's fortunes around? The OBR projects terrible household real wage growth (second worst parliament ever) which means they are fucked.
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That’s the question. But the well stated strategy is to front load the bad news so I don’t think anyone at Labour HQ will be massively surprised by a poll four years out showing people haven’t felt the good news yet.

Just keep your powder dry. It’ll come.
 
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
PVA said:
Just shows it's a bit of a nonsense really and totally prejudiced.
There's no way that 29% of Labour voters are better off and 4% of Reform voters are better off. Labour voters are likely to feel or claim they are better off even if they aren't, and Reform voters are going to feel or claim they are worse off even if they aren't.
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It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
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They’re mostly pissing off Tory voters at the moment TBF. They’re just not also making their voters happy. Starmer slow boring theory is that after five years people will look up and see immigration down, growth up, etc. There’s not much in terms of public opinion that’s going to sway him from that yet.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
It’s about feelings, not actuality,

You know, like how things can be a hate crime if you that’s how you feel that it is.

Governments need a feel good factor if they are going to get a second term, things look they are going to get worse and some life long enemies have been made. For some of them - the old gits - life long enmity may not be viewed as a problem as we will all have frozen to death over the next 4 winters.
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Reform voters are never going to be happy under this government, Labour won't be losing any sleep over only 4% of Reform voters feeling better off.

In fact, I'm surprised it's that high 😅
 
MalcSB

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
They’re mostly pissing off Tory voters at the moment TBF. They’re just not also making their voters happy. Starmer slow boring theory is that after five years people will look up and see immigration down, growth up, etc. There’s not much in terms of public opinion that’s going to sway him from that yet.
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He had better get a move on then. One of the things about getting older is that time passes by so fast. The next 4 years will be gone in a flash. Immigration will not have gone down, no growth, missed housing targets, hugely increased energy bills - and no Tories to blame.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
MalcSB said:
He had better get a move on then. One of the things about getting older is that time passes by so fast. The next 4 years will be gone in a flash. Immigration will not have gone down, no growth, missed housing targets, hugely increased energy bills - and no Tories to blame.
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Well that’s the rub yes.
 
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