Do you want to discuss boring politics? (29 Viewers)

rob9872

Well-Known Member
View attachment 35751
My monies on one of you lot setting up a false Fiona Harvey account
I would say that whoever creates it should spend their time choosing a contributor on here and replying to their every post, but we've already got a few doing that!
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
General Election imminent?

Please God, let it be true...

He’s not going to get better timing than now so he’d be stupid to wait. Labour clearly suffered a small but possibly significant backlash at the locals because of their stance over Gaza, they’ve just announced that inflation has fallen to a 3 year low and strong rumours of a cut in interest rates around the corner. He’s fucked whatever but for damage limitation for the Tories it’s now or never.
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
Journos seem to think it's happening! Push the button, Rishi...

blazing saddles GIF
 

rob9872

Well-Known Member
Remember the old saying that people consider admitting to wanking is as embarrassing as admitting to voting Conservative. All I'll say is there are a lot of secret wankers out there. Labour can't fail to win a majority, but I still don't think it will be anything like the wipeout or landslide predicted.

Even aside from my obvious bias, I always want a decent opposition to keep any government from pushing just about anything through without being held to account and I've consistently advocated that through the past 10 years too, so not just because it's Labour this time.
 

rob9872

Well-Known Member
Mmm holiday season, what could be the motivation for that?
Huge public sector payrises so they're all away on holiday 🤣👍
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
Remember the old saying that people consider admitting to wanking is as embarrassing as admitting to voting Conservative. All I'll say is there are a lot of secret wankers out there. Labour can't fail to win a majority, but I still don't think it will be anything like the wipeout or landslide predicted.

Even aside from my obvious bias, I always want a decent opposition to keep any government from pushing just about anything through without being held to account and I've consistently advocated that through the past 10 years too, so not just because it's Labour this time.

Mate, it's Starmer. I wouldn't worry too much about anything left of centre getting through because of lack of a decent opposition. 😄
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Remember the old saying that people consider admitting to wanking is as embarrassing as admitting to voting Conservative. All I'll say is there are a lot of secret wankers out there. Labour can't fail to win a majority, but I still don't think it will be anything like the wipeout or landslide predicted.

Even aside from my obvious bias, I always want a decent opposition to keep any government from pushing just about anything through without being held to account and I've consistently advocated that through the past 10 years too, so not just because it's Labour this time.

AFAIK there’s never actually been any evidence of a shy Tory effect. Polls will close during a GE campaign, they always do.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Ref earlier convo about the US economy with @CCFCSteve



This is why I have trouble accepting the idea that the US public have some special sense of the real economy. A lot of it is straight up vibes and I’m not sure how well old wisdom about it’s the economy stupid hold up when we don’t have a shared economic ground truth.
 

Skybluekyle

Well-Known Member
Based on what I have read, it's looking like a General Election will almost certainly be announced today, most likely at 5pm. Date doing the rounds is the 04/07
 

Skybluekyle

Well-Known Member
Rumours abound that Tory rebels are putting in letters of no confidence in an effort to stop Sunak calling a GE.
I am absolutely no Tory, but surely they should realise it is now or never?

Simply feed the line that they "got Brexit done", "combated inflation" and "got the economy growing again" repeat ad nauseam
 

wingy

Well-Known Member
Nobody in the public sector has had a pay rise for about 15 years, in real terms pay has stagnated at best and in most cases declined. This state of affairs is not helpful to the state of the economy..
Of course its all relative, I think but don't know but I think Rob feels kind of left behind?

By events either natural or legislated for!
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Ref earlier convo about the US economy with @CCFCSteve



This is why I have trouble accepting the idea that the US public have some special sense of the real economy. A lot of it is straight up vibes and I’m not sure how well old wisdom about it’s the economy stupid hold up when we don’t have a shared economic ground truth.


Agreed, it’s how people feel and inflation has made people feel a lot poorer*. Also in the U.K., for those middle income earners, the frozen tax bands have meant many are paying more tax. All whilst public services are on their arse. Not a great election winning combo

I was going to post earlier to say I’d be shocked if Sunak went for an early election as they’d want to wait until Ni cuts to start to make people feel a bit better off and hope for England to win euros for national feel good factor but sounds like it might be happening….maybe Sunak worrierd about our left back options 😊

*GDP might be flying and CPI going down but if people are struggling to pay for the basics like food, rent, energy and petrol, those numbers are irrelevant in peoples every day lives
 

wingy

Well-Known Member
Agreed, it’s how people feel and inflation has made people feel a lot poorer*. Also in the U.K., for those middle income earners, the frozen tax bands have meant many are paying more tax. All whilst public services are on their arse. Not a great election winning combo

I was going to post earlier to say I’d be shocked if Sunak went for an early election as they’d want to wait until Ni cuts to start to make people feel a bit better off and hope for England to win euros for national feel good factor but sounds like it might be happening….maybe Sunak worrierd about our left back options 😊

*GDP might be flying and CPI going down but if people are struggling to pay for the basics like food, rent, energy and petrol, those numbers are irrelevant in peoples every day lives
Interest rates are more likely to have that effect!!
 

JAM See

Well-Known Member
Based on what I have read, it's looking like a General Election will almost certainly be announced today, most likely at 5pm. Date doing the rounds is the 04/07
Independence day.

(Insert your own joke here).
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Agreed, it’s how people feel and inflation has made people feel a lot poorer*. Also in the U.K., for those middle income earners, the frozen tax bands have meant many are paying more tax. All whilst public services are on their arse. Not a great election winning combo

I was going to post earlier to say I’d be shocked if Sunak went for an early election as they’d want to wait until Ni cuts to start to make people feel a bit better off and hope for England to win euros for national feel good factor but sounds like it might be happening….maybe Sunak worrierd about our left back options 😊

*GDP might be flying and CPI going down but if people are struggling to pay for the basics like food, rent, energy and petrol, those numbers are irrelevant in peoples every day lives

I do think inflation is quite lumpy as well and averages smooth things out. Plus the human habit of blaming rising prices on the government and rising wages on their own brilliance.
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
Madness for the tories if true

I dunno, now is probably as good a time as any. Things aren't going to get any better for them and their base is literally dying off the longer they leave it.

The only benefit to waiting is the extra time to cream contracts and cash off to their mates, but electorally I'm not sure there's any benefit in waiting.
 

Skybluekyle

Well-Known Member
I do think inflation is quite lumpy as well and averages smooth things out. Plus the human habit of blaming rising prices on the government and rising wages on their own brilliance.
In fairness, wages has a direct government mechanism it can use to influence, the legal minimum wage, but inflation is usually market-driven. I guess this is the problem of laissez-faire economics
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Interest rates are more likely to have that effect!!

In terms of peoples lives, yeah, those that have had fixed rates come to an end or credit card balances etc. People will blame that on the government but it’s nothing to do with them really

It was another reason why I thought Sunak might wait as rates should reduce a bit during the year. Todays inflation numbers, whilst good, were higher than expected so many commentators think cuts might be delayed further. I personally think BoE should be cutting as I reckon, to some extent, the higher rates are now part of the cause of inflation/it’s stickiness but that’s a whole different discussion.
 

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