Do you want to discuss boring politics? (122 Viewers)

[Grendel]

Bloody Blair!

View attachment 37847

It’s a rather silly graph as you need to look at the last 20 years when there has been consistently around 250,000 a year other than the last 3 years -

there has been a huge rise in international students since Covid with 450,000 study visas alone last year.

It’s also somewhat amusing that the graph gives an impression we are looking at large numbers of immigrants from outside Europe when the biggest import of one country is indeed in Europe

 

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[Sky Blue Pete]

The benefits are legitimate of course, we do need measured immigration. But when the numbers swamp the infrastructure that's there to support ALL communities, it becomes a major problem.

That's where we're at now, but the conversations that need to be had can't go ahead when everyone is so concerned at who's to blame rather than addressing the actual issue.

Before we can even hope to deal with our problems, we have to first accept that there is a problem, rather than calling people racists or bigots or saying it's this or that parties problem.

As a nation we're obsessed with fighting each other rather than tackling our issues together.

Agreed
Not everyone
My right wing friends tell me the media is against them when I feel the media has exacerbated this myth that there are massive unresolvable issues and challenges with the people attempting to gain asylum on the boats
The answers are nuanced and certainly not asylum seeker bad British born good or Muslim bad and Christian good
To start with the home office needs enough staff and robust processes to deal with claims quickly and effectively
The country needs investment in infrastructure from public and private money
Unfortunately I feel there are many suggesting solutions to problem we either don’t have or are causes and not symptoms
Lack of housing is not down to tens of thousands of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach although that may be a tiny part of it. It’s much more down to there being no houses built for 20 years
Knife murders are not down to tens of thousand of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach

 

[MalcSB]

You say that like I don’t also support universal help for pensioners with their energy bills. There are several benefits of universality over means testing, including cutting out beauracracy and guaranteeing that everyone who needs a service has access. If you cover two thirds of the meals that a child needs, that’s a huge help to all families and I would rather a few people get access who don’t strictly need it, than have people need it but miss out.

That’s also ignoring the clear benefits of giving our children better nutrition so they can do better at school and be a bit healthier in the process. Social stigma for being an FSM kid is also removed.

VAT is the tax cut I would really like to see separate to that and something that helps businesses and individuals alike.

What’s child benefit for?

 

[Sick Boy]

It’s a rather silly graph as you need to look at the last 20 years when there has been consistently around 250,000 a year other than the last 3 years -

there has been a huge rise in international students since Covid with 450,000 study visas alone last year.

It’s also somewhat amusing that the graph gives an impression we are looking at large numbers of immigrants from outside Europe when the biggest import of one country is indeed in Europe

It clearly says non-EU migration so it’s obvious some will be from Europe.

 

[Sick Boy]

Ffs mate get a fucking grip, go and read some of my posts above before talking utter bollocks

Go and read my post no, 42,464 on this very topic. (Just 1 example)

No offence but you’re all over the place with what you’re saying.

 

[Grendel]

It clearly says non-EU migration so it’s obvious some will be from Europe.

250,000 are from Europe

 

[Sick Boy]

250,000 are from Europe

I still don’t understand what the issue is. I thought one advantage was that it made it fairer for people from non-EU countries to migrate to the UK.

 

[Grendel]

I still don’t understand what the issue is. I thought one advantage was that it made it fairer for people from non-EU countries to migrate to the UK.

The issue is it suggests Brexit has increased net migration from non Eu countries but these migrants would be here anyway

 

[wingy]

No offence but you’re all over the place with what you’re saying.

But he did get his point across in that numbered post as he moved from to approval in the emoji stake's, honestly!

 

[Sick Boy]

The issue is it suggests Brexit has increased net migration from non Eu countries but these migrants would be here anyway

But non EU migration has clearly gone up.

 

[CCFCSteve]

But non EU migration has clearly gone up.

A shit border policy, Ukraine refugees and people gaming the system (low pay visas and student visas). Crazy that the Tories oversaw system allowing students to bring dependents and people earning £18.5k could also bring spouses

I’d imagine the numbers will settle down a bit now but appalling mismanagement - Johnson, Patel and Bravermann the main culprits

 

[Grendel]

But non EU migration has clearly gone up.

it’s students and Ukraine - all projections are it will by 2028 return to the same levels it has been.

 

[MalcSB]

Agreed
Not everyone
My right wing friends tell me the media is against them when I feel the media has exacerbated this myth that there are massive unresolvable issues and challenges with the people attempting to gain asylum on the boats
The answers are nuanced and certainly not asylum seeker bad British born good or Muslim bad and Christian Good
To start with the home office needs enough staff and robust processes to deal with claims quickly and effectively
The country needs investment in infrastructure from public and private money
Unfortunately I feel there are many suggesting solutions to problem we either don’t have or are causes and not symptoms
Lack of housing is not down to tens of thousands of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach although that may be a tiny part of it. It’s much more down to there being no houses built for 20 years
Knife murders are not down to tens of thousand of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach

Apparently there are 60,000 more civil servants compared with pre pandemic. That, plus the productivity benefits of WFH and potential 4 days working, should be more than enough to support the home office.
Lack of housing is down to hundreds of thousands of immigrants. Look around you Pete - how can you say no houses have been built for 20 years, that is utter bollocks.
Nutters committing knife murders is nothing to do with immigration but more to do with a weak approach to people with such issues.

 

[shmmeee]

Gee I wonder why we suddenly needed loads more bureaucratic support

 

[fatso]

No offence but you’re all over the place with what you’re saying.

What ive said is we are being let down by all political parties, they either won't do what's required, or can't do what's required.

We need to look at a new way of governing that actually gets things done and can address the obvious issues. I've called both major parties out for their failings.

A fairer distribution of wealth and a fairer tax system would be a start. Along with modernising public services, and reducing the demand on the NHS. (It can be done)

All the above is achievable if there's a genuine will to do it.

 

[Ian1779]

Yes, its a fucking shit show.

But continuously arguing over who's to blame isn't the answer.

The worrying thing is this new government has no plan or idea to deal with anything.

They are already showing alarming signs of being beholden to their traditional union pay masters.

You should be more worried about corporate ‘lobbyists’ in the new governments ear than any union paymasters.

 

[shmmeee]

Time for a grown-up conversation about immigration

Failing to acknowledge imperfect outcomes and trade-offs is impoverishing the debate

www.ft.com

 

[chiefdave]

Time for a grown-up conversation about immigration

Failing to acknowledge imperfect outcomes and trade-offs is impoverishing the debate

www.ft.com

Have you just seen the same tweet from JBM that I have

 

[shmmeee]

Probably

He’s right tho. The left needs to get serious on integration and the right needs to focus its ire on illegal immigration and encourage integration. Thought the stats on earnings of new immigrants want interesting.

 

[MalcSB]

Gee I wonder why we suddenly needed loads more bureaucratic support

View attachment 37852

Looks like I understated at 60,000 more civil servants than ore pandemic., more like 90,000. Should be plenty to stop the boats and smash the gangs.

 

[MalcSB]

Time for a grown-up conversation about immigration

Failing to acknowledge imperfect outcomes and trade-offs is impoverishing the debate

www.ft.com

Do the majority of people really want more foreign students? I genuinely expect not.

Universities who have grown enormously since the Blair years will want them though to justify their bloated existence and chancellors salaries

 

[rob9872]

Agreed
Not everyone
My right wing friends tell me the media is against them when I feel the media has exacerbated this myth that there are massive unresolvable issues and challenges with the people attempting to gain asylum on the boats
The answers are nuanced and certainly not asylum seeker bad British born good or Muslim bad and Christian good
To start with the home office needs enough staff and robust processes to deal with claims quickly and effectively
The country needs investment in infrastructure from public and private money
Unfortunately I feel there are many suggesting solutions to problem we either don’t have or are causes and not symptoms
Lack of housing is not down to tens of thousands of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach although that may be a tiny part of it. It’s much more down to there being no houses built for 20 years
Knife murders are not down to tens of thousand of people jumping on a dinghy and landing on a beach

Around 234,400 new homes were supplied in 2022/23. The supply of new homes has increased year-on-year from a low of 125,000 in 2012/13.

You can't suddenly magic houses.

 

[wingy]

Around 234,400 new homes were supplied in 2022/23. The supply of new homes has increased year-on-year from a low of 125,000 in 2012/13.

You can't suddenly magic houses.

Unless you go Chinese style or buy them off the shelf no, it's one area where a disruptor would be a goof thing, come on Branson and sort the land and then sell chunk's of it off with service's supplied!! My wish for the future!

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

I said this century. UK population was flat between 1970 and 1985 (ish).

So in the tough economic times you mean. Periods of growth in 1980s relied a lot on immigration. Same applies now with such shortages of workforce in certain sectors. Isn't the beloved USA of many on here, primarily a country and economy based entirely on immigration?

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

Around 234,400 new homes were supplied in 2022/23. The supply of new homes has increased year-on-year from a low of 125,000 in 2012/13.

You can't suddenly magic houses.

Increase in demand for housing is complex. Migration, immigration, more single people rather than nuclear family, more divorces, more 2nd home owners, demand for Air B&B tourist accommodation, explision in student accomodation. Blaming it on immigration is lazy.
Also construction of housing and infrastructure drives our economy with jobs in creative design, architecture, planning, surveying, landscape, architecture, ecology, hydrology, engineering, combatting climate change specialists, surveying, highways, sustainable energy privision, carpentry etc. having huge benefits in local areas too for jobs and existing businesses.
Problems are hidden and complex with some private sector industries believed to be exploiting illegal immigration as part of a massive untaxed, wild underground economy.... e.g. hotels, restaurants, warehouse packaging businesses, Deliveroo/Just Eat etc.

 

[MalcSB]

So in the tough economic times you mean. Periods of growth in 1980s relied a lot on immigration. Same applies now with such shortages of workforce in certain sectors. Isn't the beloved USA of many on here, primarily a country and economy based entirely on immigration?

It’s funny how boomers are reckoned to have had it so easy on one hand, whilst living through the tough economic times on the other.

 

[wingy]

It’s funny how boomers are reckoned to have had it so easy on one hand, whilst living through the tough economic times on the other.

Certainly were, but I think it a forlorn argument now really,this is now and that was then,there seems to be lower tolerance of error built in to systems to protect currency,at least we hope so,less exploitative practices?

 

[Grendel]

So in the tough economic times you mean. Periods of growth in 1980s relied a lot on immigration. Same applies now with such shortages of workforce in certain sectors. Isn't the beloved USA of many on here, primarily a country and economy based entirely on immigration?

Net migration was mostly flat or negative in the 80’s and 90’s

 

[wingy]

Net migration was mostly flat or negative in the 80’s and 90’s

So it will be again when equilibrium is met,or strangled?

 

[rob9872]

Increase in demand for housing is complex. Migration, immigration, more single people rather than nuclear family, more divorces, more 2nd home owners, demand for Air B&B tourist accommodation, explision in student accomodation. Blaming it on immigration is lazy.
Also construction of housing and infrastructure drives our economy with jobs in creative design, architecture, planning, surveying, landscape, architecture, ecology, hydrology, engineering, combatting climate change specialists, surveying, highways, sustainable energy privision, carpentry etc. having huge benefits in local areas too for jobs and existing businesses.
Problems are hidden and complex with some private sector industries believed to be exploiting illegal immigration as part of a massive untaxed, wild underground economy.... e.g. hotels, restaurants, warehouse packaging businesses, Deliveroo/Just Eat etc.

I've absolutely no idea why you're ranting to me on a tangent as normal. I quoted the number built in a direct response to saying enough weren't being built. I didn't even touch on the reasons for needing more. You get stranger by the day.

 

[Grendel]

So it will be again when equilibrium is met,or strangled?

The forecast is for it to go back to the levels of pre Covid - around 250,000 a year by 2030.

I’m always surprised that so called left leaning people on here favour immigration and the EU project

 

[wingy]

Oh well that's good what makes for difference, I just use the logic of whatever harmful to Britain IMO , I know we'll never agree on this btw

 

[MalcSB]

Increase in demand for housing is complex. Migration, immigration, more single people rather than nuclear family, more divorces, more 2nd home owners, demand for Air B&B tourist accommodation, explision in student accomodation. Blaming it on immigration is lazy.
Also construction of housing and infrastructure drives our economy with jobs in creative design, architecture, planning, surveying, landscape, architecture, ecology, hydrology, engineering, combatting climate change specialists, surveying, highways, sustainable energy privision, carpentry etc. having huge benefits in local areas too for jobs and existing businesses.
Problems are hidden and complex with some private sector industries believed to be exploiting illegal immigration as part of a massive untaxed, wild underground economy.... e.g. hotels, restaurants, warehouse packaging businesses, Deliveroo/Just Eat etc.

It sounds as if a lot of students requiring housing are from abroad so counted in immigration numbers. I would imagine 2 homes and Air BnB are marginal, especially in places like Huddersfield, Wigan, Rochdale and the like. Single people live with mum and dad as they can’t afford houses.
I think suggesting immigration at nearly 700k per year as a major pressure on housing stock isn’t being all that lazy.

 

[Como]

Societies rise and Societies fall, it has always been thus. Some of the reasons are similar and there can be one obvious cause or a series of drip drip effects.

Will Mein Starmer rule over a Thousand Year Reich, of course not, will he hasten the demise, I personally think so but only time will tell.

Ever more people simply don’t want to have children

Personal choice more than circumstances is the reason why younger generations are not having children, a new study reveals. Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office showed that fewer children are being born in Ireland and the fertility rate is well below the replacement level...

thinkspot.com

I thought this was quite interesting, it is hardly breaking new ground but worth a read.

Personal choice more than circumstances is the reason why younger generations are not having children, a new study reveals.
Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office showed that fewer children are being born in Ireland and the fertility rate is well below the replacement level. Understanding the reasons why people choose not to have offspring is crucial for comprehending the shifting demographics and future family structures.
A new study from the Pew Research Center on U.S. adults without children offers a detailed examination of the various reasons why this is the case, highlighting significant trends and differences across age groups.
The survey is based on two distinct cohorts: adults aged 18-49 and those aged 50 and older.
Lifestyle choice is a predominant reason for the decision not to have children, especially among younger adults.. Over half (57pc) of childless adults under 50 state they simply do not want to have kids. This figure is notably higher than among older adults (ages 50 and above), where only 31pc cite the same reason. This indicates a generational shift towards valuing personal autonomy and lifestyle choices over traditional expectations of parenthood.
Comparing these findings with past surveys reveals a clear move towards more people opting out of parenthood by choice rather than by circumstance. The share of non-parents under 50 who say they are unlikely to have children has increased by seven percentage points since 2018.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Societies rise and Societies fall, it has always been thus. Some of the reasons are similar and there can be one obvious cause or a series of drip drip effects.

Will Mein Starmer rule over a Thousand Year Reich, of course not, will he hasten the demise, I personally think so but only time will tell.

Ever more people simply don’t want to have children

Personal choice more than circumstances is the reason why younger generations are not having children, a new study reveals. Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office showed that fewer children are being born in Ireland and the fertility rate is well below the replacement level...

thinkspot.com

I thought this was quite interesting, it is hardly breaking new ground but worth a read.

Personal choice more than circumstances is the reason why younger generations are not having children, a new study reveals.
Recent figures from the Central Statistics Office showed that fewer children are being born in Ireland and the fertility rate is well below the replacement level. Understanding the reasons why people choose not to have offspring is crucial for comprehending the shifting demographics and future family structures.
A new study from the Pew Research Center on U.S. adults without children offers a detailed examination of the various reasons why this is the case, highlighting significant trends and differences across age groups.
The survey is based on two distinct cohorts: adults aged 18-49 and those aged 50 and older.
Lifestyle choice is a predominant reason for the decision not to have children, especially among younger adults.. Over half (57pc) of childless adults under 50 state they simply do not want to have kids. This figure is notably higher than among older adults (ages 50 and above), where only 31pc cite the same reason. This indicates a generational shift towards valuing personal autonomy and lifestyle choices over traditional expectations of parenthood.
Comparing these findings with past surveys reveals a clear move towards more people opting out of parenthood by choice rather than by circumstance. The share of non-parents under 50 who say they are unlikely to have children has increased by seven percentage points since 2018.

I will save you the trouble. Wife and I both in our 30s couldn’t afford to start trying until now. So for us anyway, it is circumstances instead of choice.