General election poll (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Evo1883
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fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
75 Green
25 Labour
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
62% Chav
2% Welsh
36% c**t
2% Welsh
36% c**t
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
As someone described his election campaign, 'the world's longest stag weekend'
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Clint, you’ve got it all wrong mate. This is the most left wing Labour Party we’ve seen in a long time. Put your X in the box
The Great Eastern
Well-Known Member
My North Norfolk constituency is very likely to return to LD from Conservative. My vote for Labour is likely to be a wasted X on the ballot paper but never say never...
My parents were both Tory party members and convinced me voting blue was the way to go for the first decade of being eligible to vote. Then I finally woke up and realised that I, as a firmly working class man, was in danger of becoming an Alf Garnett type character. No fucking way......
My parents were both Tory party members and convinced me voting blue was the way to go for the first decade of being eligible to vote. Then I finally woke up and realised that I, as a firmly working class man, was in danger of becoming an Alf Garnett type character. No fucking way......
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Speak your mind mate
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Lib Dem's bouncing back.
SkyBlueMatt
Well-Known Member
That would be the best case scenario. Labour win and Lib Dems the 2nd largest party. It's not going to happen though.
Keep the right wing grifters out in the cold and Farage can crawl back under his rock.
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shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Ideal result is LD official opposition and Farage to lose Clacton and Labour to have a stonking majority.
I think it’ll be closer. Tories will get 100+ I think, just think people will rally at the last minute and save them and they’ll sneak through a few three ways with Reform and independents. Farage will win, Reform maybe 4-6 seats, Greens 2-4, Lib Dem’s around 60.
Those are my from my ass predictions.
nicksar
Well-Known Member
My wife thinks very similar tbh...she will not be voting, i've tried to persuade her to go and put a line through them all and write none across the ballot paper but she's having none of it
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Ian1779
Well-Known Member
My prediction
I’m thinking 5 each for Reform, Green and Independents. 40 for the SNP, LD around 75.
Take out the NI ones and that leaves around 450 seats - of which Labour will take close to 375 of them.
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
Nearly over.....thank fuck.
I think they should introduce new election rules that state the voting must take place within 14 days of the date being announced.
Then maybe half the population won't have been bored to tears, drink or drugs.
I still reckon it'll be a shite turnout......
I think they should introduce new election rules that state the voting must take place within 14 days of the date being announced.
Then maybe half the population won't have been bored to tears, drink or drugs.
I still reckon it'll be a shite turnout......
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Ok, if we're in prediction mode.
Labour win large majority, but not quite as big as some think.
Low turnout c. 60-65%
Labour won't win as many seats as Blair did first time round, but could get around 400.
Conservatives may well have their lowest seats ever, but won't get as bad as double figures. Too many will vote for them regardless. Say around 120-150 seats.
SNP to lose a few of their seats due to recent scandals and no longer be the third party but will remain quite popular in Scotland. LD/Labour to take most of those they lose. Say 30 - 35 seats.
LD to become the third party again with around 40-50 seats.
Was a bit worried about Reform taking a few seats but think Farage fucked it (maybe deliberately) with his Russia comments. May get a decent number of overall votes but not many seats/ Might get about 10 seats. Farage to win this time round (then defect to Tories at some point in the future)
Greens could get 3-4, but like Reform get a decent amount of votes but not many seats.
Labour win large majority, but not quite as big as some think.
Low turnout c. 60-65%
Labour won't win as many seats as Blair did first time round, but could get around 400.
Conservatives may well have their lowest seats ever, but won't get as bad as double figures. Too many will vote for them regardless. Say around 120-150 seats.
SNP to lose a few of their seats due to recent scandals and no longer be the third party but will remain quite popular in Scotland. LD/Labour to take most of those they lose. Say 30 - 35 seats.
LD to become the third party again with around 40-50 seats.
Was a bit worried about Reform taking a few seats but think Farage fucked it (maybe deliberately) with his Russia comments. May get a decent number of overall votes but not many seats/ Might get about 10 seats. Farage to win this time round (then defect to Tories at some point in the future)
Greens could get 3-4, but like Reform get a decent amount of votes but not many seats.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
But do we really want more people to vote on just feels without time to consider the options?
Needs a bit of time for manifestos to be confirmed, released and digested. Admittedly they could do with getting rid of the debate panels. Just ungainly bickering trying to points score and look tough in front of voters. Maybe have one half hour for each leader to face the public to be questioned on their policies.
Can’t get postal votes turned around in that time, as has been found even with the extended campaign ! Also takes some time for parties to pick their teams etc
I agree this has dragged though. Guess that’s partly because we all kind of know the likely outcome
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
Macron called a snap election and they were voting 20 days later.....
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Electoral calculus still predicting 470 Labour seats although it has wide margins between Labour's best and worst result.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Was reading yesterday that a big chunk of the problem with postal votes is the timing of the election. Turns out there’s a reason that elections are traditionally held in May and it’s because people haven’t started going on holiday in any great numbers. So there’s been a far larger number of requests for a postal vote than normally expected as large numbers of people will be on holiday on polling day.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Difficult to call. Agree that it will be low turnout. The difficulty is polling, there’s an abnormally in Reform. The pollsters have to factor in the popularity of a new party at a GE with higher than usual support for a new party. You Gov actually changed their methodology a week or 2 ago and I think others have too to try and make it more accurate. Problem as I understand it that they use a number of factors including previous election results, previous opinion polling vs actual votes placed etc. to take the sample polling and set that against a far larger number that will actually be real votes. They don’t have that data for Reform and I understand that is causing them a headache. Under You Govs original methodology Labour has a far bigger lead and Reform don’t have as big of a vote share. I also look at footage of reform campaigning and people aren’t turning up in massive numbers to cheer them on, at a few of them counter protests are inflating the numbers of those present and then there’s the Trumpian rally in Birmingham 5000 turned up. Then I compare it to John Majors campaign where he brought his soap box and stood up in public spaces. It really gained momentum and people were turning up in bigger and bigger numbers, he won undecided voters in big numbers and won a GE he wasn’t necessarily expected to win. So basically I wonder if reforms polling flatters to device. You also have to factor people getting to the booth and hesitating, especially in marginal seats (and there’s lots of them this time) and voting one of the 3 main parties instead to keep the other 2 out knowing reform in reality won’t win their particular seat.
I think Labour will win a bigger share of the votes and a bigger share of the seats than in 1997 but not necessarily as many votes overall due to a low turnout. They look set do well in Wales and I think might do better than expected in Scotland too.
I think the Tories are in for a big kick in, maybe even worse case scenario. Apparently all the major opinion poll companies can only agree on 13 seats that they will definitely win, the rest just being too close to call.
I think Lib Dem’s will win somewhere near the higher end of the predictions and surprise a few people. I think they will be the major beneficiaries of tactical voting.
Greens look set to win a couple, holding on to Brighton and set to win a Bristol seat. I’d love to see them win a couple more but can’t see it.
I think Reform will probably end up with half a dozen seats give or take. I’d be surprised if it’s more for the reasons stated above but wouldn’t outright expect no more. There’s just no data on how their vote share will relate to seats.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Loads of people down here saying they are going to vote Reform. 
And when we visited Deal the other day, there were loads handing out Reform flyers in the street.
Haven't seen any Conservative posters up in anyone's windows, but have seen loads of Labour and a few Green too.
I knew Reform would be popular here, as we are right next door to Dover.
And when we visited Deal the other day, there were loads handing out Reform flyers in the street.
Haven't seen any Conservative posters up in anyone's windows, but have seen loads of Labour and a few Green too.
I knew Reform would be popular here, as we are right next door to Dover.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Notice the arrows on the gloves are all facing in the one direction and Nigel is trying to get him out of the picture.
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
Going to vote either Green or not vote at all. Labour have done absolutely nothing to earn my vote besides simply not being the Tories.
Otis
Well-Known Member
The Green's transgender policy is a little bit worrying.
Plus, their financial, budget calculation shortfall figures are even worse than Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories.
My daughter is voting Green, but then she already has a Green MP
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
They also don’t live in the real world where their ideals and policies meet the real world. There’s a reason net zero policies have caused backlash wherever they’ve been implemented.
On voting age, ironically, the AfD and National Rally have attracted a lot of young voters. So the warning to proponents of lowering the voting age to 16: be careful what you wish for.
Personally, I believe the voting age should be in line with the age of majority and don’t believe the age of majority should be lower than 18.
rob9872
Well-Known Member
I've backed under 60% turnout at 9/1. That's the only thing I'm really prepared to put money to. Could be wrong, but felt like the value range.
My predictions:
Unsure on Conservative seats, think around 110 to 120 but odds ranges are far wider and offer no value. I think around 430 Labour seats, the usual NI leaving around 100 mixed for SNP, Green, Clwyd, Lib Dem & Reform. I think Reform will likely be around 15% but only translate to 2 seats.
My predictions:
Unsure on Conservative seats, think around 110 to 120 but odds ranges are far wider and offer no value. I think around 430 Labour seats, the usual NI leaving around 100 mixed for SNP, Green, Clwyd, Lib Dem & Reform. I think Reform will likely be around 15% but only translate to 2 seats.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I’ve been reading up a fair bit on the NI situation and there is one possible upset on the cards. DUP leader Gavin Robinson could lose his seat to Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party. DUP on a knife edge in a couple of other seats too but Robinson would be the big scalp.