Goalscorer (8 Viewers)

[Gosb]

We may only have scored 26 goals in all 21 matches this season, but they've come from 13 different players. It would be good to think that this is an alternative approach to the '30 goals a season striker' we crave. You never know where (or when) the next goal is coming from!

 

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[Otis]

Three on Saturday for starters. Jones, McNulty and Kelly in a 3-1 win.

 

[Astute]

We may only have scored 26 goals in all 21 matches this season, but they've come from 13 different players. It would be good to think that this is an alternative approach to the '30 goals a season striker' we crave. You never know where (or when) the next goal is coming from!

But 'when' is the problem.

We have failed to score in 7 games. That is 1 in every 3. And we have failed to score in 4 of the last 7 games.

 

[bradwellskyblues]

7 in the last 3 not too bad things are on the up lets be positive

 

[Covstu]

But 'when' is the problem.

We have failed to score in 7 games. That is 1 in every 3. And we have failed to score in 4 of the last 7 games.

Agree, it’s the constant attacking threat that’s been the downfall which has caused us to draw blanks. I think the positive is that we have actually started scoring now so long may that continue

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

I'm still slightly leaning towards the fact that I think we have a reasonable back up squad to deal with injuries/suspensions, which other clubs may struggle with. I guessed (rightly or wrongly) that November - December was when we may see that come to our advantage. May end up eating humble pie, but if we can avoid a barren goal scoring patch then I am hopeful. Think next 2 games are big challenges for us - looking forward to a bit of an edgy atmosphere on Saturday, with a few potential knuckle draggers appearing, together with an abrasive Mansfield manager/team (oh, and of course, 3 points please) !

 

[dongonzalos]

We need a striker who is capable of scoring 20 goals. MR believed McNulty was. He now knows he isn’t. Either Ponti is or we will try and sign someone who can.
That will be the difference between trying to get into the play offs and trying to get into the automatics

 

[Esoterica]

Agree, it’s the constant attacking threat that’s been the downfall which has caused us to draw blanks. I think the positive is that we have actually started scoring now so long may that continue

Robins has tinkered with the team - Ponticelli, Haynes, Vincenti back in and we've scored goals. Everyone is happier because we've won 3 games but they've all been relatively open games and we've been good in them since the Notts County game at the start of the season. Until we come up against the type of opposition content with a point and parking the bus - Barnet, FGR, Colchester etc I don't think we'll see if we've really learned from those horrible 4 games in October. Think we'll beat Mansfield, and Lincoln will be open as they'll want to win their home games but the tests will come at Stevenage away (they play Notts County at home and Mansfield away first, so will probably slip back to midtable) and Crawley at home, as both will probably be happy with a point.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

But 'when' is the problem.

We have failed to score in 7 games. That is 1 in every 3. And we have failed to score in 4 of the last 7 games.

I think this has more to do with tactics than with personnel. We’ve hammered the likes of Notts County, Luton and Exeter who have all been top. Yet we’ve struggled against the likes of Barnet, Forest Green, Chesterfield and Newport County.

In particular, we tend to struggle when we concede first, and struggle to get goals when we’re playing away generally. So this suggests to me that it is more of a tactical issue.

 

[SkyBlueScottie]

League 2 2014 - 15 Burton were champions without having a scorer in the top 10 highest scorers, Shrewsbury were promoted with Collins scoring 15. Last year Northamptons top scorer got 15, Bristol who were 3rd had a player score 27... As along as there are goals in the team, you dont necessarily need a 20 goal a season man.

 

[stevefloyd]

but we do have to score some to ensure 3 points to us

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

Ponticelli is on track for 19 in 45 with his current run. Bear in mind that most of his appearances have been 5 minute cameos.

 

[Astute]

7 in the last 3 not too bad things are on the up lets be positive

I always like to be positive.

But 1 game was against a non league team and another was against a U21 side.

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

I always like to be positive.

But 1 game was against a non league team and another was against a U21 side.

The two against Maidenhead were great finishes and he got himself into a great position for both. That's regardless of opposition.

 

[Londonccfcfan]

7 in the last 3 not too bad things are on the up lets be positive

You will always find what your looking for in stats.

I like the way your looking at stats. The only stat that is important is that we are 6th, Well in contention for autos.

 

[Astute]

The two against Maidenhead were great finishes and he got himself into a great position for both. That's regardless of opposition.

I don't disagree with you at all.

But we still have only scored in 1 game out of the last 5 against those at the same level as us. It just happened to be against the top side who are free scoring. And we also got 3. If only the crap sides were as easy to beat as the teams at the top.

 

[shmmeee]

But 'when' is the problem.

We have failed to score in 7 games. That is 1 in every 3. And we have failed to score in 4 of the last 7 games.

So really it’s more of a bad patch, as without that poor run it’d be failing to score in 3, which isn’t so bad.

 

[Esoterica]

Pulled these stats together, thought they were interesting:


Really highlights our inability to score against the bottom 8 teams. Just 2 goals from 6 games @0.33 goals per game there and conversely how well we play against the top 8 teams (10 goals in 6 games @1.67 goals per game). Screams tactics and not players to me, as I've said all season.

 

[Astute]

Pulled these stats together, thought they were interesting:

View attachment 8337
Really highlights our inability to score against the bottom 8 teams. Just 2 goals from 6 games @0.33 goals per game there and conversely how well we play against the top 8 teams (10 goals in 6 games @1.67 goals per game). Screams tactics and not players to me, as I've said all season.

Or we are good on the break but clueless on how to break down teams that play defensively.

 

[stupot07]

I don't disagree with you at all.

But we still have only scored in 1 game out of the last 5 against those at the same level as us. It just happened to be against the top side who are free scoring. And we also got 3. If only the crap sides were as easy to beat as the teams at the top.

And that's goes back to our inability to break teams down and create decent opportunities against teams who come to park the bus not necessarily down to whether we have one 20 goal a season striker or not.

(Not aimed at you just a general point)



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[skyblueinBaku]

Pulled these stats together, thought they were interesting:

View attachment 8337
Really highlights our inability to score against the bottom 8 teams. Just 2 goals from 6 games @0.33 goals per game there and conversely how well we play against the top 8 teams (10 goals in 6 games @1.67 goals per game). Screams tactics and not players to me, as I've said all season.

Average league goals scored 1.32, conceded 1.32?

 

[Esoterica]

Or we are good on the break but clueless on how to break down teams that play defensively.

Well that was what I was trying to say but only really the 2nd & 3rd against Notts County and the 3rd goal at Luton were goals on the break against the top teams. I think it's about space rather than just counter attacking as the core reason.

 

[Esoterica]

Average league goals scored 1.32, conceded 1.32?

That's the L2 average scored/conceded for comparison to our own individual averages. Sorry if I didn't word it well.

 

[Grendel]

The two against Maidenhead were great finishes and he got himself into a great position for both. That's regardless of opposition.

Regardless of opposition? So better defenders don’t spot that?

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

Regardless of opposition? So better defenders don’t spot that?

So are we saying that because of the level of opposition he was able to get into a good position and finish well. I.e. he can't do it against league opponents or just speculating for the sake of an argument?

I'd rather see how he gets on against League opposition before saying he wouldn't be any good against them. You can only measure someone by what they have faced and the kids done good so far.

 

[Liquid Gold]

We need a striker who is capable of scoring 20 goals. MR believed McNulty was. He now knows he isn’t. Either Ponti is or we will try and sign someone who can.
That will be the difference between trying to get into the play offs and trying to get into the automatics

 

[Esoterica]

And that's goes back to our inability to break teams down and create decent opportunities against teams who come to park the bus not necessarily down to whether we have one 20 goal a season striker or not.

(Not aimed at you just a general point)

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

I'm hopeful Robins has fixed it. By bringing in Haynes he has two attacking fullbacks and has started them visibly higher on the pitch. It means they in turn go beyond our wide midfielders higher up the pitch which enables them to get to the byline which should stretch out the opponents back 4 more and then create extra space in the middle. It's still reliant on one of Doyle or Kelly getting higher through the middle though so that the bank of 4 midfielders are occupied and not 5 yards in front of the defenders - perversely looking forward to seeing us against the next team that try it

 

[Grendel]

So are we saying that because of the level of opposition he was able to get into a good position and finish well

You said that it’s regardless of opposition which is of course not true.

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

You said that it’s regardless of opposition which is of course not true.

It is true. If he were in the premier league he would be trying to get into that position and if he were playing you he'd be trying to get into that position.

 

[dongonzalos]

Pulled these stats together, thought they were interesting:

View attachment 8337
Really highlights our inability to score against the bottom 8 teams. Just 2 goals from 6 games @0.33 goals per game there and conversely how well we play against the top 8 teams (10 goals in 6 games @1.67 goals per game). Screams tactics and not players to me, as I've said all season.

Screams to me that when you play against a team that parks the bus you have to be clinical when you do get your chances. Also you have to have the striker that makes things happen in those circumstance and that way win more than you lose or draw.

 

[dongonzalos]

It is no fluke that every team above us has a striker scoring nearly a 1 in 2 ratio or better.
I take people believe that is purely because all of those teams are creating better chances for their strikers.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Pulled these stats together, thought they were interesting:

View attachment 8337
Really highlights our inability to score against the bottom 8 teams. Just 2 goals from 6 games @0.33 goals per game there and conversely how well we play against the top 8 teams (10 goals in 6 games @1.67 goals per game). Screams tactics and not players to me, as I've said all season.

Spot on with the analysis. I think one of the main reasons we have difficulties with the lower league teams is that we don’t score enough early goals. Robins earlier in the season spoke about the need to ‘win the battle first’ - whatever this means - provides an insight to our tactics. But, generally speaking, against lesser teams, the longer you wait before you score, the more difficult you make it for yourself. For me, the solution is that we should probably be more aggressive in our attacking from the first whistle. You get an early goal vs the likes of FGR and we’re talking 3 or 4-0 against them.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It is no fluke that every team above us has a striker scoring nearly a 1 in 2 ratio or better.
I take people believe that is purely because all of those teams are creating better chances for their strikers.

We’re in November, usually 1 team in the top 3 last has a ‘20 goal a season striker’. The best strikers in any league score 20-25 goals, without taking into account of braces and hat tricks, that’s still 20+ games they’re not going to score. When you take it into account, they score in what? Roughly a quarter or third of league games? In contrast, the best defensive team routinely comes in the top 3. It’s why Barnet have Akinde and are still a mid table team whilst Beavon got player of the year at Burton, scoring 5 goals...

 

[Esoterica]

It is no fluke that every team above us has a striker scoring nearly a 1 in 2 ratio or better.
I take people believe that is purely because all of those teams are creating better chances for their strikers.

So do we. The Duck has scored 1 every 152 minutes, that's tied with Luton's Danny Hylton and better than James Collins. It's also better than Exeter's Rueben Reid, better than Swindon's Luke Norris and Accrington's Kayden Jackson.

And yet of those 6 teams we've played in the bottom 8, Duck has started against 3, come on as a sub in 2 and missed the Barnet game. He has a strike ratio of 1 in 285 minutes against them almost double his own league average of 1 in 152 minutes. Yes, those other teams are creating better and more frequent chances against the defensive teams we've struggled to break down...

 

[Esoterica]

Spot on with the analysis. I think one of the main reasons problems we have difficulty with the lower league teams is that we don’t score enough early goals. Robins earlier in the season spoke about the need to ‘win the battle first’ - whatever this means - provides an insight to our tactics. But, generally speaking, against lesser teams, the longer you wait before you score, the more difficult you make it for yourself. For me, the solution is that we should probably be more aggressive in our attacking from the first whistle. You get an early goal vs the likes of FGR and we’re talking 3 or 4-0 against them.

You're right of course and the statistics fully support that:
5 of our 17 goals have been in the first half (a 29%/71% split)
We've lead at half-time in just 4 of 16 matches (25%)

Robins clearly underestimated just how many teams would set up negatively against us this year and thought we'd be grinding teams down by HT, a tactic that has worked well against open teams. As I say above I think he's made some tweaks now that should help address the balance a bit.

One side stat to support our amazing defensive record too - we've not conceded an equaliser in the league all season. When we do go in front, we stay there - how amazing is that!