My concern with Robins (1 Viewer)

[Nick]

So much panic, I think it will turn around.

We are sixth in the xg table

Can't wait to get promoted to the XG Premier League.

 

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[lordsummerisle]

I find stats quite interesting to an extent but when you're hovering just outside the drop zone and people are saying its ok because the xG has us higher that it becomes meaningless. You can't measure spinelessness or general inability to play a certain system (the one we are currently playing)

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Football as a game doesn't lend itself particularly well to cold scientific statistics, unlike, say American Football and Cricket.

Far too many variables to adequately measure any players or teams expected anything with any degree of accuracy.

There is far too much correlation equals causation on here as it is, with every mention of Simms or Wright being a bit shit, bringing a response of " Gyokeres was shit when he started ".

 

[SBAndy]

Football as a game doesn't lend itself particularly well to cold scientific statistics, unlike, say American Football and Cricket.

Far too many variables to adequately measure any players or teams expected anything with any degree of accuracy.

There is far too much correlation equals causation on here as it is, with every mention of Simms or Wright being a bit shit, bringing a response of " Gyokeres was shit when he started ".

I’d generally agree with that, but we’re talking about measurement of a specific i.e. quality creation and concession of chances. It’s not an “everything’s fine” argument, it’s highlighting what the data is telling us is the issue. And given that correlates pretty well to what we see, I’d suggest it’s accurate. Better finishing and cut out the mistakes at the back and we should do alright (sounds simple, I know).

As a quick aside to all of this, people have said we don’t shoot enough but the stats show we have taken 71 shots in 4 games. Do we disregard this stat because people are seeing it differently? Or do we say that we are shooting a lot, but we need to see more ‘quality’ shots?

 

[hill83]

Can't wait to get promoted to the XG Premier League.

Xemier Greague

 

[lordsummerisle]

I’d generally agree with that, but we’re talking about measurement of a specific i.e. quality creation and concession of chances. It’s not an “everything’s fine” argument, it’s highlighting what the data is telling us is the issue. And given that correlates pretty well to what we see, I’d suggest it’s accurate. Better finishing and cut out the mistakes at the back and we should do alright (sounds simple, I know).

As a quick aside to all of this, people have said we don’t shoot enough but the stats show we have taken 71 shots in 4 games. Do we disregard this stat because people are seeing it differently? Or do we say that we are shooting a lot, but we need to see more ‘quality’ shots

Should be obvious to anyone with stats or not, as long as we have eyes, that we're shooting plenty, but generally poorly.

Which is why those who use basic BBC/SKY Football stats on shots, possession etc to argue we've had a good game or not, so often get the reality wrong.

xG looks to be merely a more "deep dive" of those basic statistics, and can't with any sort of certainty make any predictions of what would happen in future games.

Maybe the xG proponents are all posting from their tropical island paradise because they're making millions betting on the outcomes of games based on stats, in which case I'll apologise to the whole fraternity.

 

[covcity4life]

As for this stats debate. I doubt you can outperform your xg forever so the better xg we have the more likely we are to win games long term I imagine.

It's one of the more interesting stats imo

 

[Tomh111]

As for this stats debate. I doubt you can outperform your xg forever so the better xg we have the more likely we are to win games long term I imagine.

It's one of the more interesting stats imo

Nobody outperforms or underperforms the xG forever, that's the benefit of it. You can lose a match and be unlucky. You can lose 3 matches and be unlucky, but eventually, those balance out given long enough.

It is like playing roulette in a casino, the house might lose on 5 spins - but there is success if they don't panic and change the rules when stats say eventually they win.

It gives a better understanding of longer-term patterns because we are all wildly biased when we look at matches. This is the fundamental principle behind Brentford and Brighton, that we all have wild bias and that stats help you to unpick them.

For example, it is no surprise that Brighton have a dearth of Ecuadorian talent - stats showed it was an underpenetrated scouting pool, producing higher quality prospects than people would expect. They go in and find cheap prospects before anybody else, Caicedo, Sarmiento and Estupinan.

If you look at Brentford and the way they play football, they rarely take shots unless they are in a high xG location, and they consistently look to play the ball into those locations. Thomas Frank takes substitution advice from a team of analysts who show the underlying analytics and make suggestions based on them.

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[fernandopartridge]

The stats app I use Sofascore has Josh Eccles as the 17th best (!) Championship player this season, he’s a decent player but certainly not among the best in the league.

So, the question is how has he ended up there? Is he underappreciated? Do they put more weight on certain statistics?

He's under-appreciated by our fans. I'm not sure you can rank players that way in any case in reality.

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[fatso]

Thing is our recruitment does look poor and many on here have criticised the recruitment personnel. Why would it be any different in January?

Because we know we need a Hamer replacement, and for some reason that wasn't done last window.

We can address the striker situation too.
But of course there's no guarantee we will get the right players in, but we certainly need to try

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

I'd go as far as to say that he has been our best player so far this season. He just isn't Hamer but he is criticised for things that aren't his fault or responsibility. I am sure this will elicit laughing emojis but maybe anyone who disagrees should say who has been better.

Josh Eccles? Just to confirm, that’s who you’re on about? Our best player this year? I realise that it’s not good to single out certain players but to say he’s been our best player is a massive overstatement in my view. Eccles’ got good stamina and he’s decent at stopping the play but unfortunately for us he’s good at that in both directions. He can’t cross a ball in properly, he’s scared to try anything creative with the ball, he clearly can’t take corners and he lacks vision, he simply doesn’t add anything extra to our game. I think he’s fine but he’s just that, no more.

Eccles is definitely not our best player anyway, I’d give that to Sakamoto. For a guy who speaks little English in a country he’s never played in before to come into the team the way he’s done is remarkable tbh. He puts in the most effort almost every game, he’s the only one that can cross a ball in well and he’s got agility for days, the only player that ever looks exciting or threatening on that ball. Yes he’s not scored or assisted yet but he’s not had the minutes Eccles has had and he’s still building his confidence in the team.

Eccles is a solid bench player but that’s it in my eyes, I’d be surprised if any team in the top half of the table would ever want him, and I realise that’s a bit cruel but I’m just being honest.

 

[wingy]

But he knows how to pass the ball into the net on occasion.

 

[lordsummerisle]

But he knows how to pass the ball into the net on occasion.

From memory, hasn't he scored twice? Both deflections?

Not that that matters particularly, goals a goal!

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

But he knows how to pass the ball into the net on occasion.

Yeah fair enough he can find the target now and again, I don’t want to slate him too much but I just think he doesn’t really add anything special to our game, he’s just consistently fine (which I suppose has it’s place).

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

Spoke to my older brother about this at the weekend. We've both been going since the 70s , in his case early 70s , myself late 70s. So we've both seen the highs and many lows .
Our fear was we've massively increased our fan base over recent seasons and many of those have only seen success , now this season we aren't in the mix at the top of the table how these fans would react

I stuck it out back in the 70s, and I never quit, but alot of fans did, I fear if things don't improve this season then next season history will repeat it self.

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

Worked for Ferguson and many others , David Moyes was going to be sacked in January and won the Europa League .
Funny old game football

And don't forget Alex Ferguson was one game away from getting the sack, then Mark Robins scored the winner to save Ferguson's job and the rest is history.

 

[Hertsccfc]

Josh Eccles? Just to confirm, that’s who you’re on about? Our best player this year? I realise that it’s not good to single out certain players but to say he’s been our best player is a massive overstatement in my view. Eccles’ got good stamina and he’s decent at stopping the play but unfortunately for us he’s good at that in both directions. He can’t cross a ball in properly, he’s scared to try anything creative with the ball, he clearly can’t take corners and he lacks vision, he simply doesn’t add anything extra to our game. I think he’s fine but he’s just that, no more.

Eccles is definitely not our best player anyway, I’d give that to Sakamoto. For a guy who speaks little English in a country he’s never played in before to come into the team the way he’s done is remarkable tbh. He puts in the most effort almost every game, he’s the only one that can cross a ball in well and he’s got agility for days, the only player that ever looks exciting or threatening on that ball. Yes he’s not scored or assisted yet but he’s not had the minutes Eccles has had and he’s still building his confidence in the team.

Eccles is a solid bench player but that’s it in my eyes, I’d be surprised if any team in the top half of the table would ever want him, and I realise that’s a bit cruel but I’m just being honest.

You're arguing that Sakamoto who has only started a handful of matches has been better. You have made your feelings about Eccles quite clear at length and incessantly. But it seems Robins doesn't agree with you as he has played almost every match for over a year now. This isn't true of many players in that time. Just maybe he knows more than you do.

Sakamoto has had his moments but has hardly contributed as yet. Have another go at identifying someone who has contributed more this season than Eccles.

 

[PVA]

Josh Eccles? Just to confirm, that’s who you’re on about? Our best player this year? I realise that it’s not good to single out certain players but to say he’s been our best player is a massive overstatement in my view. Eccles’ got good stamina and he’s decent at stopping the play but unfortunately for us he’s good at that in both directions. He can’t cross a ball in properly, he’s scared to try anything creative with the ball, he clearly can’t take corners and he lacks vision, he simply doesn’t add anything extra to our game. I think he’s fine but he’s just that, no more.

I'm not saying he's been our best player, but to counter your point that he doesn't add anything going forwards...

He has played more passes into the final third than anyone in the squad (by a long way)
Most number of progressive passes in the squad
Second most passes into the penalty area
Second most key passes
Second most shot creating actions

(That's just offensively, his defensive numbers are also very good)

 

[Hertsccfc]

I'm not saying he's been our best player, but to counter your point that he doesn't add anything going forwards...

He has played more passes into the final third than anyone in the squad (by a long way)
Most number of progressive passes in the squad
Second most passes into the penalty area
Second most key passes
Second most shot creating actions

(That's just offensively, his defensive numbers are also very good)

So who has been better then?

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

You're arguing that Sakamoto who has only started a handful of matches has been better. You have made your feelings about Eccles quite clear at length and incessantly. But it seems Robins doesn't agree with you as he has played almost every match for over a year now. This isn't true of many players in that time. Just maybe he knows more than you do.

Sakamoto has had his moments but has hardly contributed as yet. Have another go at identifying someone who has contributed more this season than Eccles.

Firstly, I just want to say I’m not here to start an argument, as I’ve said with many others, some people on here seem to think that if anyone has opposing opinions then it means that their sworn lifelong forum enemies but that’s not the case, I’ve just got an opinion and you’ve just got an opinion and that’s sound, no disrespect meant.

Unfortunately we’re back to this same old argument that people wheel out time and time again and it means absolutely nothing, “it appears the manager doesn’t agree with you…” as if it’s some sort of smug comeback. What’s the point of having a forum to talk about issues with our team if anything anyone says just gets shut down by “well the manager thinks differently so you’re wrong”. Might as well be no forum at all at that rate and just let Robins feed us whatever we get each week. I’m a big Robins fan but it’s ridiculous to suggest that he’s correct 100% of the time, no one is. He might know more that I do, you’re right, but he might also have overlooked something and to suggest Robins gets it right every time when we’re currently 20th in the table seems ridiculous.

As for Eccles, he’s fine, as I’ve said, I don’t dislike but I don’t like him either, he’s just consistently fine. As for contributing, I don’t think he contributes much other than breaking down play now and again, passing, putting in the odd tackle, it’s fine, nothing wrong in that but it’s not electrifying. He gets the odd goal and yeah it’s not to be sniffed at I just wouldn’t ever say he’s our best player or has contributed the most, if he’s our most contributing player then we’re properly up shit creek without a paddle.

I realise Sakamoto hasn’t got a goal or an assist yet but he’s not had a load of game time, I think it’s only a matter of time before a goal/assist comes though. If we’re talking solely this season then Sakamoto has definitely contributed the most when he’s been allowed to play. He’s always looking up, looking forward, looking for that incisive pass or cross, he actually tries things and has shots at goal. Not only that but he’s given his all in multiple positions, yes he’s had the odd bad game in defence but that’s not his strength, he’s an attacking winger and it’s just unfortunate for him we don’t play with wingers. But to say he hasn’t contributed much when he’s played RWB, LWB and RM seems ludicrous to me. It’s not to say Saka doesn’t have flaws but what is Eccles actually contributing? He’s wasted more corners than I care to imagine, corners we maybe could have scored from with a better deliver, he’s made the odd mistake for a goal and he’s too shy going forward. I just think his contribution has been quite poor this season, but either way it doesn’t matter, it’s just our opinions and we’re indeed going to get what Robins gives us each week.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

I'm not saying he's been our best player, but to counter your point that he doesn't add anything going forwards...

He has played more passes into the final third than anyone in the squad (by a long way)
Most number of progressive passes in the squad
Second most passes into the penalty area
Second most key passes
Second most shot creating actions

(That's just offensively, his defensive numbers are also very good)

Yeah fair enough some good stats he’s put up but watching the game it doesn’t feel like he’s generating the potential for assists or goals, a lot of those passes are sidewards or backwards, it doesn’t show how often he could have gone forwards to try and score. There’s been multiple times when I’ve watched him play a safe ball sidewards when there’s been a perfectly good option forwards.

One thing to also factor in is that he’s one of the few players in midfield that’s started (almost?) every game. If he’s in that midfield position every week then he’s bound to be adding passes to his tally. Sheaf was out for a good while, Ayari in and out of the squad, MVE out for a few weeks, front line and back line changes every week and Kelly’s been out for the last 4-5 games. So Eccles is the only constant in the team, my point is that this is not through being consistently good but because we’ve consistently had no other midfielder to play there.

 

[Hertsccfc]

Yeah fair enough some good stats he’s put up but watching the game it doesn’t feel like he’s generating the potential for assists or goals, a lot of those passes are sidewards or backwards, it doesn’t show how often he could have gone forwards to try and score. There’s been multiple times when I’ve watched him play a safe ball sidewards when there’s been a perfectly good option forwards.

One thing to also factor in is that he’s one of the few players in midfield that’s started (almost?) every game. If he’s in that midfield position every week then he’s bound to be adding passes to his tally. Sheaf was out for a good while, Ayari in and out of the squad, MVE out for a few weeks, front line and back line changes every week and Kelly’s been out for the last 4-5 games. So Eccles is the only constant in the team, my point is that this is not through being consistently good but because we’ve consistently had no other midfielder to play there.

He's playing every week because he is playing better than Sakamoto, Ayari or anyone else in midfield. The stats back that up and so does the fact that Robins keeps picking him.

 

[False9]

Can't wait to get promoted to the XG Premier League.

Did you buy an xG premier package?

The underlying point of the decent xg stats being that we are creating chances and doing the right things but without the finish. Usually, over time, it is a better indicator of where you will finish in the table.

Presumably if we took the lead we would then go onto to create more chances too as teams can't just sit in to counter attack.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

He's playing every week because he is playing better than Sakamoto, Ayari or anyone else in midfield. The stats back that up and so does the fact that Robins keeps picking him.

Fair enough, my view is just that he’s playing consistently fine but is nothing amazing. I don’t hate the guy but I don’t think he’s a top half championship side footballer. The issue is we have multiple players that some weeks put in a great shift and then other weeks put in a dodgy shift. I look at Eccles and think he could offer so much more but rarely has the courage or maybe ability to do so, tbf it’s mainly the sidewards passing that frustrates me but maybe that could be a tactical setup issue I suppose.

 

[Hertsccfc]

Fair enough, my view is just that he’s playing consistently fine but is nothing amazing. I don’t hate the guy but I don’t think he’s a top half championship side footballer. The issue is we have multiple players that some weeks put in a great shift and then other weeks put in a dodgy shift. I look at Eccles and think he could offer so much more but rarely has the courage or maybe ability to do so, tbf it’s mainly the sidewards passing that frustrates me but maybe that could be a tactical setup issue I suppose.

You really have nothing more to say than I don't rate Eccles but you say it in so many words and so often. We have the message now but don't expect Robins to be convinced.

You still haven't told me who has contributed more than Eccles this season. The Sakamoto suggestion was a joke surely? The guy has hardly played.

 

[baldy]

And don't forget Alex Ferguson was one game away from getting the sack, then Mark Robins scored the winner to save Ferguson's job and the rest is history.

So what you’re saying is bring Ferguson out of retirement to score a match winning goal to save Robins job

 

[baldy]

He's playing every week because he is playing better than Sakamoto, Ayari or anyone else in midfield. The stats back that up and so does the fact that Robins keeps picking him.

If Eccles is our best player so far this season then that shows how woeful we’ve been so far

 

[Hertsccfc]

If Eccles is our best player so far this season then that shows how woeful we’ve been so far

Agreed. But it seems amazing that some people put all the blame on him.

 

[SBT]

There’s a difference between our most entertaining player and our best player. Sakamoto is a fun player to watch going forward, but he’s played less than half the time and hasn’t turned any runs or crosses into actual goals or assists yet.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

You really have nothing more to say than I don't rate Eccles but you say it in so many words and so often. We have the message now but don't expect Robins to be convinced.

You still haven't told me who has contributed more than Eccles this season. The Sakamoto suggestion was a joke surely? The guy has hardly played.

Once again, the reference to Robins has nothing to do with these posts, it’s not like he’s taking in anything anyone on this forum says. The standard response of “the manager doesn’t agree” is a load of nonsense when you’re having a debate on a forum.

Oh yeah and good one, trying to make a joke about my Sakamoto comment. That’s how lacklustre Eccles is, from watching almost every game this season, to me Sakamoto has contributed more per minute than Eccles has this season despite getting like half the game time. I genuinely cannot believe we’ve gone this far with this debate about fucking Josh Eccles Who are you seriously more pleased about seeing on the team sheet? Eccles or Sakamoto? Because I certainly don’t want to be living a 0-0 life for the rest of the season and that’s the sort of scoreline Eccles brings. Neither good nor bad, just consistently boring.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

There’s a difference between our most entertaining player and our best player. Sakamoto is a fun player to watch going forward, but he’s played less than half the time and hasn’t turned any runs or crosses into actual goals or assists yet.

Yeah fair enough but the difference is Saka’s actually trying to do something, Eccles and the likes are doing jack shit, just pass pass pass pass and then lose the ball. Very rarely does a pass from Eccles lead to anything. He gets a lot of passes and he tries hard, don’t get me wrong, but there’s not much from him that actually contributes to a goal.

(I say that now, I bet he scores this weekend

 

[Hertsccfc]

Once again, the reference to Robins has nothing to do with these posts, it’s not like he’s taking in anything anyone on this forum says. The standard response of “the manager doesn’t agree” is a load of nonsense when you’re having a debate on a forum.

Oh yeah and good one, trying to make a joke about my Sakamoto comment. That’s how lacklustre Eccles is, from watching almost every game this season, to me Sakamoto has contributed more per minute than Eccles has this season despite getting like half the game time. I genuinely cannot believe we’ve gone this far with this debate about fucking Josh Eccles Who are you seriously more pleased about seeing on the team sheet? Eccles or Sakamoto? Because I certainly don’t want to be living a 0-0 life for the rest of the season and that’s the sort of scoreline Eccles brings. Neither good nor bad, just consistently boring.

By that token why do we play any defenders or defensive midfielders?

 

[Hertsccfc]

Yeah fair enough but the difference is Saka’s actually trying to do something, Eccles and the likes are doing jack shit, just pass pass pass pass and then lose the ball. Very rarely does a pass from Eccles lead to anything. He gets a lot of passes and he tries hard, don’t get me wrong, but there’s not much from him that actually contributes to a goal.

(I say that now, I bet he scores this weekend

He has scored and also had a number of good shots and have a look at the stats earlier in this thread.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

Agreed. But it seems amazing that some people put all the blame on him.

Just to refer back to our debate, I’m not putting the blame solely on him, I’m not blaming him for us being bad, I just don’t rate him as a player. He has to play atm as that’s all we have in that position (apart from maybe Lati) but I don’t blame him for us doing bad, there’s a number of factors why we’re so shit atm.

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

By that token why do we play any defenders or defensive midfielders?

I realise Saka and Eccles do completely different jobs but my personal opinion is if I had to have one I’d pick Saka over Eccles every time. That’s just me though, many others will disagree and that’s fine, that’s football and it’s all part of the game I suppose.

 

[SBT]

Yeah fair enough but the difference is Saka’s actually trying to do something, Eccles and the likes are doing jack shit, just pass pass pass pass and then lose the ball. Very rarely does a pass from Eccles lead to anything. He gets a lot of passes and he tries hard, don’t get me wrong, but there’s not much from him that actually contributes to a goal.

(I say that now, I bet he scores this weekend

Absolute rubbish