So who realistically are the teams left fighting for 5th and 6th (1 Viewer)

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Captain Dart

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
bigfatronssba said:
He's 27 now.

That's about the time you can stop getting away with it. Before that weight control is easy.
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I'm over 60, it's easy if you know what not to eat.
 
bigfatronssba

bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
Lamps said:
Yes or needing to win every game.
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Well you also have that weird thing of clubs suddenly winning once they're down
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Lamps said:
I've been saying that for a couple of weeks. Now we have got the win against them it certainly is possible. Most people can't see it though.

Falling away from the top 2 then getting totally outplayed won't help their cause. I'd be happy with 5th though as long as they stay 4th.
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It’s not likely, mind you and to be frank, with Sunderland playing WBA, Bristol, Millwall, Norwich and Blackburn… we want them to pick up some wins (especially against WBA). After all, the difference between finishing 4th and 5th is playing the first tie home or away.

If we beat one of Sheff U or Burnley, we really can’t fumble a playoff berth. Our remaining away games are relegation threatened teams with bad home records.
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
bigfatronssba said:
Well you also have that weird thing of clubs suddenly winning once they're down
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Yeah, but 3 teams have to go down and the likelihood of all of them exceeding expectations against us is quite low.

As bad as the Derby loss was for us, they’ve got the best home record of the teams we face away after Sheff U.

Pompey don’t travel well, Hull have the worst home record in the division, Plymouth and Luton are not much better either.
 
Lamps

Lamps

Well-Known Member
Mucca Mad Boys said:
It’s not likely, mind you and to be frank, with Sunderland playing WBA, Bristol, Millwall, Norwich and Blackburn… we want them to pick up some wins (especially against WBA). After all, the difference between finishing 4th and 5th is playing the first tie home or away.

If we beat one of Sheff U or Burnley, we really can’t fumble a playoff berth. Our remaining away games are relegation threatened teams with bad home records.
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To me it's quite simple. Win 4 out of 8 we should be in the top 6. Win 5 out of 8 we should be in 5th. More than this and wr might catch Sunderland.

We might need more. We might need less. But most importantly we have it in our own hands with a 2 point lead over 6th.
 
skybluelee

skybluelee

Well-Known Member
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
It's not really a shock that the teams further down the league have bigger odds.

Points per game is a very one dimensional way of looking at it. Yes, we are in a good place, but let's not get dizzy. There's still 8 games to go. One loss and that gap can close to practically a coin flip with 7 games left.

Hopefully we can get the job done early enough, and enjoy the journey along the way, but don't be naive to think we can't fuck it up.
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That's too simplistic looking at 1 isolated round of matches that 'might' go against us.

How many teams are getting to 70/71 outside of us, West Brom, Bristol C and possibly Middlebrough?

Sheff W are not winning 7 of their last 8, which still might not be enough for them.

Blackburn are in the bottom 3 in the last 6 form table, and bottom 6 over the last 10. If they win 6 out of the last 8 I'll give you my 1,000 strong Coventry football programme collection if you want it.

Watford have won 1 of their last 4. Not sure what their catalyst will be to suddenly winning 6/8 with games coming up against West Brom, Bristol C and Burnley.

If any of those teams catch us it will be because we've had a shocking run in in which case West Brom, Bristol and Boro will be out of sight in any case.
 
Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
Cally Fedora said:
Analysing run ins in the championship is one of the most futile things you’ll ever do. It’s a totally unpredictable league
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Precisely. It isn't even about other teams going on mad runs, others can choke and fall apart too.

I love the optimism on here, but some people are acting as if they don't know how football works sometimes!
 
Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
skybluelee said:
That's too simplistic looking at 1 isolated round of matches that 'might' go against us.

How many teams are getting to 70/71 outside of us, West Brom, Bristol C and possibly Middlebrough?

Sheff W are not winning 7 of their last 8, which still might not be enough for them.

Blackburn are in the bottom 3 in the last 6 form table, and bottom 6 over the last 10. If they win 6 out of the last 8 I'll give you my 1,000 strong Coventry football programme collection if you want it.

Watford have won 1 of their last 4. Not sure what their catalyst will be to suddenly winning 6/8 with games coming up against West Brom, Bristol C and Burnley.

If any of those teams catch us it will be because we've had a shocking run in in which case West Brom, Bristol and Boro will be out of sight in any case.
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Your view is the one that is too simplistic I'm afraid.

Of course there is a low probability, but asking questions such as 'how can that team win 6/8 games' as if they're playing Barcelona in every one is shallow. Anyone can turn it on or choke, and form patterns at this period can take a wild change either way.

Look, we are in a great position no doubt, but this is football. Using one round of matches is relevant because should we lose the next one, and other teams win, all these maths calculations need to be re-done, and it is going to look at hell of a lot more uncomfortable with still 7 to play.

I think we can do it, but I think some of you are far too dismissive of other teams and what can happen in the meantime.
 
skybluelee

skybluelee

Well-Known Member
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
Your view is the one that is too simplistic I'm afraid.

Of course there is a low probability, but asking questions such as 'how can that team win 6/8 games' as if they're playing Barcelona in every one is shallow. Anyone can turn it on or choke, and form patterns at this period can take a wild change either way.

Look, we are in a great position no doubt, but this is football. Using one round of matches is relevant because should we lose the next one, and other teams win, all these maths calculations need to be re-done, and it is going to look at hell of a lot more uncomfortable with still 7 to play.

I think we can do it, but I think some of you are far too dismissive of other teams and what can happen in the meantime.
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I don't know why I am being quite so dismissive given I was still nervous in the 88th minute on Saturday. 🤣

Of course you are right. That said, it would be a genuine shock to me if anybody below Boro hits 71 points (which still might not be enough).
 
Lamps

Lamps

Well-Known Member
clint van damme said:
Am I misremembering this, but the year we got to the play offs we were getting an incredible amount of results go our way over a period of weeks.

I'm fairly sure a lot of those results were our rivals losing to teams who were supposedly 'on the beach'.
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They were. And a lot of our rivals went into it on poor recent form just like now. A lot of people just look at the table and think the teams with the most points should beat the teams with the least. This has been happening for weeks now.

Look at it presently. The teams we have caught up and now gone past are now expected to win most of their remaining games meaning we have to win most of ours. It most probably won't happen. Those playing for their survival will give that little bit more against those that have lost all confidence.
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Lamps said:
They were. And a lot of our rivals went into it on poor recent form just like now. A lot of people just look at the table and think the teams with the most points should beat the teams with the least. This has been happening for weeks now.

Look at it presently. The teams we have caught up and now gone past are now expected to win most of their remaining games meaning we have to win most of ours. It most probably won't happen. Those playing for their survival will give that little bit more against those that have lost all confidence.
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For example, WBA under Mowbray are 4-4-3 (W-D-L) so they’re at risk of dropping out of the Top 6. They drew against Burnley and Leeds away and followed up with a draw v Hull and they nearly threw it all away.

The same applies to Bristol City too, their away form hasn’t been great, they’ve won 4 away games all season. Their remaining away games; Burnley, QPR, Luton and Leeds and I don’t think they’ll get more than 4 points from that run in.

Whereas now, we’re 6th in both the home and away tables (overall) and under Lampard, our home form has probably been the best in the league (8-2-1). Only Leeds beat this 8-2-0 and is matched by Bristol City.

If Boro don’t make the playoffs, Carrick should probably get sacked because Bristol and WBA have more difficult run ins.
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
clint van damme said:
Am I misremembering this, but the year we got to the play offs we were getting an incredible amount of results go our way over a period of weeks.

I'm fairly sure a lot of those results were our rivals losing to teams who were supposedly 'on the beach'.
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They did - especially Blackburn - without Wilson’s goal we’d have finished 7th
 
covcity4life

covcity4life

Well-Known Member
Maybe now people see why it was so dumb to put down lampards early results down to a "easy" fixture list

I'm always right people!
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
Mucca Mad Boys said:
For example, WBA under Mowbray are 4-4-3 (W-D-L) so they’re at risk of dropping out of the Top 6. They drew against Burnley and Leeds away and followed up with a draw v Hull and they nearly threw it all away.

The same applies to Bristol City too, their away form hasn’t been great, they’ve won 4 away games all season. Their remaining away games; Burnley, QPR, Luton and Leeds and I don’t think they’ll get more than 4 points from that run in.

Whereas now, we’re 6th in both the home and away tables (overall) and under Lampard, our home form has probably been the best in the league (8-2-1). Only Leeds beat this 8-2-0 and is matched by Bristol City.

If Boro don’t make the playoffs, Carrick should probably get sacked because Bristol and WBA have more difficult run ins.
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Yep definitely regards Carrick.
 
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thekidfromstrettoncamp

Well-Known Member
When we play Sheffield Utd. all the pressure will be on them.There home record since Christmas has dropped off all their defeats including the cup have come there since then.It's there away record that has been the saviour.Six wins out of six away.Hopefully we'll attack them from the off. IF we could get 3 points there Burnley would be a free hit
 
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Macca1987

Well-Known Member
In my predictions, I only had us getting 3 points out of the three games against the top 4 teams. We are they already so anything else is now a bonus in my eyes, it also helps if we have another Derby along the way in what we might call our easier fixtures.
 
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