The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (34 Viewers)

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

The Independent? An opinion piece by Owen Jones? @Earlsdon_Skyblue1 will explode

I just threw my bowl of corn flakes out the window!

 

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[Grendel]

I meant crash of 2007 and 2008. there was no crash in 2018. Grendel was saying wages were lower than 10 years ago. Which is true in a lot of countries in the world because we have yet to recover properly.

Oh I made a mistake the study was from 2010 Mart

Can you explain now?

 

[Grendel]

The real point of course anyway is the Euro system in general which benefits the main member states at the expense of the weaker nations

The notion you can blithely dismiss wage deflation of 23% and say it’s a world trend is blind arrogance

 

[Grendel]

The other point that I would like to discuss Mart is employment in the European Union.

How’s that going would you say?

What stands out in their chart?

EU: unemployment rate 2018 by country | Statista

 

[Grendel]

Also mart you seem to not be commenting on the real impacts of free movement on the poorer countries.

Why is this happening do you think?

 

[martcov]

Oh I made a mistake the study was from 2010 Mart

Can you explain now?

? There was a crash.

 

[Grendel]

? There was a crash.

Oh was there.

That’s strange - so you are saying that the declines are linear across all countries.

Has any country in the Eu experienced growing standards over this period?

 

[Astute]

German growth also recovering...

From a low point.....

 

[Astute]

What are you on about? Please point out where I have rubbished what you have posted??

What are you on about?

Or shall we try this post? I never mentioned you but you make out as though I did. So it is in a way......

Look on the bright side. You make a comment that isn't true and your puppy dog likes your post.

 

[Sick Boy]

What are you on about?

Or shall we try this post? I never mentioned you but you make out as though I did. So it is in a way......

Look on the bright side. You make a comment that isn't true and your puppy dog likes your post.

You need to calm down, it was a joke. I couldn’t imagine Earlson using an Owen Jones article to back up an opinion.

 

[Ashdown]

Emma Thornbury.....she's Labours new Dianne Abbott, they shut one twat up to now be replaced by another ! The Tories are a shambles but no one surely in their right minds now could put these morons in charge of the UK ?!.......

 

[Sick Boy]

Emma Thornbury.....she's Labours new Dianne Abbott, they shut one twat up to now be replaced by another ! The Tories are a shambles but no one surely in their right minds now could put these morons in charge of the UK ?!.......

Why is it that someone like Hammond can Borge figures live on air and doesn’t get the same sort of treatment? It should be the same for all of them.

 

[Astute]

You need to calm down, it was a joke. I couldn’t imagine Earlson using an Owen Jones article to back up an opinion.

But what you said to me wasn't a joke. It is the sort of comment I normally get off you.

I can't understand how it is we want the same thing but can see everything so differently.

Never mind. Won't be far away from each other soon. Will be close enough to Italy to explore it a lot.

 

[Astute]

Why is it that someone like Hammond can Borge figures live on air and doesn’t get the same sort of treatment? It should be the same for all of them.

Maybe he doesn't think police officers only get paid £20 a year :shifty:

They are all a waste of space. But the idea seems to be have a go at one bunch of useless twats but leave the other bunch of useless twats alone. However much I look at them I can't think of enough of them from all parties put together that would make a government that could take us forward. Politics in the UK are a total joke these days

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Why is it that someone like Hammond can Borge figures live on air and doesn’t get the same sort of treatment? It should be the same for all of them.

Um is it because he’s a man?

 

[Ian1779]

I see that CHUK have already died on their arses...

Couldn’t happen to nicer bunch of soon to be ex-MP’s.

 

[Ashdown]

Um is it because he’s a man?

Thanks Petey, kiss kiss kiss

 

[Sick Boy]

But what you said to me wasn't a joke. It is the sort of comment I normally get off you.

I can't understand how it is we want the same thing but can see everything so differently.

Never mind. Won't be far away from each other soon. Will be close enough to Italy to explore it a lot.

How could you not realise that was joke?! Let me know if you’re over in the Veneto area or Lake Garda we can down some beers and belt out some cov songs

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I wasn't going on what others have said - I'm going on what previous experiences strongly suggest will happen. It was the poster saying Brexit would get 400+ seats that was quoting what someone else said based solely on if you took the EU results and extrapolated them to a GE. I was pointing out that historically there isn't a great correlation between local/EU elections and GE.

I didn't say Brexit wouldn't get a decent number of votes, I said they wouldn't win many seats. I don't KNOW that is what would happen, but past experience and historic evidence makes it highly probable. UKIP last time is a good indicator of how Brexit would fair. Local/EU elections people are more willing to register protest votes or vote for a smaller party. GE's people tend to go back and vote for one of the main two parties, often strategically for fear of handing government to the other if they don't.

Peterborough EU election:
Brexit 38.3%
Labour 17.2%
Lib Dem 15.4%
Tory 10.9%
Green 10.8%
UKIP 3.6%
Change 3.0%
Others 0.9%

Peterborough by-election
Labour 31%
Brexit 29%
Conservative 21%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

 

[Grendel]

Peterborough EU election:
Brexit 38.3%
Labour 17.2%
Lib Dem 15.4%
Tory 10.9%
Green 10.8%
UKIP 3.6%
Change 3.0%
Others 0.9%

Peterborough by-election
Labour 31%
Brexit 29%
Conservative 21%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

Which shows the next general election will be a lottery which neither main party will want

If Johnson is elected he will inevitably look at some kind of deal with Farage

 

[skybluetony176]

Peterborough EU election:
Brexit 38.3%
Labour 17.2%
Lib Dem 15.4%
Tory 10.9%
Green 10.8%
UKIP 3.6%
Change 3.0%
Others 0.9%

Peterborough by-election
Labour 31%
Brexit 29%
Conservative 21%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

In a clear leave voting region like Peterborough this only confirms that the country has no appetite for a no deal brexit including those who voted leave. I honestly expected the Brexit Ltd to win this.

 

[Sick Boy]

Which shows the next general election will be a lottery which neither main party will want

If Johnson is elected he will inevitably look at some kind of deal with Farage

I doubt it very much, however much you’d want it, it would cause all sorts of internal problems.

 

[Grendel]

I doubt it very much, however much you’d want it, it would cause all sorts of internal problems.

I doubt it but strategically it would make sense - the swing since the last election is significant

 

[skybluetony176]

I doubt it very much, however much you’d want it, it would cause all sorts of internal problems.

Whoever takes over will have enough issues dealing with and containing the ERG while dealing the reality of brexit. No sensible PM is going to throw Ferage into that mix. Then again this is Boris we’re talking about.

 

[Ian1779]

I doubt it but strategically it would make sense - the swing since the last election is significant

Not necessarily, you have to take into account the reduction in turnout (which was not bad for a by-election to be fair at 48%), so it's actually difficult to see how the vote split, and would manifest itself in a GE. The Tory vote switching to Brexit party would seem the most logical move along with the non voters, but Labour lesser share.. did any go to Brexit? Did any go to Lib Dem? How many just didn't vote as it was out of the main election cycle?

 

[Ian1779]

In a clear leave voting region like Peterborough this only confirms that the country has no appetite for a no deal brexit including those who voted leave. I honestly expected the Brexit Ltd to win this.

I think it shows that there is more to politics than just Brexit.

 

[Astute]

And again there are heads being buried in the sand.

Labour reduced from 48% of the vote to 31% of the vote.

Tories reduced from 46% of the vote to 21% of the vote.

Brexit was 52% v 48%. A difference of 4%. 4% is totally called out as very close. This was 31% v 29%. A difference of 2%. But because it has gone the other way it is counted as a massive and conclusive win.......

And I suppose I am still wrong to be worried.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Which shows the next general election will be a lottery which neither main party will want

If Johnson is elected he will inevitably look at some kind of deal with Farage

It was as a proof to another poster who claimed Brexit would win over 400 seats in a GE. This shows, just weeks after polling more than double any other single party in the EU elections, they didn't win a by-election. Yes, it was quite close but I said originally I expected Brexit to win votes. I just didn't expect them to win seats. If they can't win one so soon after the EU success they had I can't see them doing better in a GE years (or at best/worst months) away.

 

[Ian1779]

And again there are heads being buried in the sand.

Labour reduced from 48% of the vote to 31% of the vote.

Tories reduced from 46% of the vote to 21% of the vote.

Brexit was 52% v 48%. A difference of 4%. 4% is totally called out as very close. This was 31% v 29%. A difference of 2%. But because it has gone the other way it is counted as a massive and conclusive win.......

And I suppose I am still wrong to be worried.

Who are you talking about specifically? The PV crew?

 

[Grendel]

It was as a proof to another poster who claimed Brexit would win over 400 seats in a GE. This shows, just weeks after polling more than double any other single party in the EU elections, they didn't win a by-election. Yes, it was quite close but I said originally I expected Brexit to win votes. I just didn't expect them to win seats. If they can't win one so soon after the EU success they had I can't see them doing better in a GE years (or at best/worst months) away.

Given the election system there is no hope of a party like brexit ever getting more than a handful of seats even if they get 30% of the vote

 

[Astute]

It was as a proof to another poster who claimed Brexit would win over 400 seats in a GE. This shows, just weeks after polling more than double any other single party in the EU elections, they didn't win a by-election. Yes, it was quite close but I said originally I expected Brexit to win votes. I just didn't expect them to win seats. If they can't win one so soon after the EU success they had I can't see them doing better in a GE years (or at best/worst months) away.

Who and where was that said?

I have said that it is too close to call. Yet some think an area where Labour and the Tories got 94% of the combined vote last time but only 52% of the vote combined this time is a clear result.

It is nothing to celebrate. But it certainly should be a reality check.

 

[Astute]

Given the election system there is no hope of a party like brexit ever getting more than a handful of seats even if they get 30% of the vote

That is another guess.

Even parties with a much lower % pick up seats. Both the Labour and Tory vote has been decimated. The winning vote here was 31%. An average vote of 30% would pick up a lot where the winner only has 31%.

 

[Ian1779]

Who and where was that said?

I have said that it is too close to call. Yet some think an area where Labour and the Tories got 94% of the combined vote last time but only 52% of the vote combined this time is a clear result.

It is nothing to celebrate. But it certainly should be a reality check.

I would look at that result and think you have 2 extremes - Brexit party and Lib Dems, which at the moment are virtually one policy parties. That was 31% to 12%. However that leaves 57% of the electorate who aren't so entrenched, in what is a Leave constituency. Even if you chuck the Greens in it would be 31% to 23%.

That's a big chunk that think other factors are more important than Brexit, or maybe still are moveable if they can be convinced?

It's messy no doubt.. lots to unpick.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Who and where was that said?

I have said that it is too close to call. Yet some think an area where Labour and the Tories got 94% of the combined vote last time but only 52% of the vote combined this time is a clear result.

It is nothing to celebrate. But it certainly should be a reality check.

This was the original post, but there followed a discussion on why the GE wouldn't be the same. The P'Boro by-election pretty much proved my points to the letter

If the eu elections 2019 ⁠had been a general election the result would be:


Brexit: 446 seats

Labour: 93 seats

SNP: 56 seats

Lib: 31 seats

Plaid: 5 seats

Green: 1 seat

Conservative: 0 seats


Brexit Party majority 242!

As I said in those posts, I expected Brexit to pick up a decent amount of votes, just not seats. I thought they'd be very similar to UKIP.

There has been a massive swing away from the main parties in this by-election but with Brexit having such a success in the area only a few weeks ago (that voted 61% leave) and still being fresh in the mind and this only being a by-election and thus wouldn't radically alter the power set-up in Westminster this was probably as good an opportunity as Brexit could hope for to win a seat. They didn't, even though they got close.

In a proper general election which may not occur for a few years I expect a bit more of the Brexit support to leach back to the main parties over that time.

However you are right in that the main parties should see this as a wake-up call rather than getting complacent. Neither performed well (but still managed to win).

 

[Astute]

I would look at that result and think you have 2 extremes - Brexit party and Lib Dems, which at the moment are virtually one policy parties. That was 31% to 12%. However that leaves 57% of the electorate who aren't so entrenched, in what is a Leave constituency. Even if you chuck the Greens in it would be 31% to 23%.

That's a big chunk that think other factors are more important than Brexit, or maybe still are moveable if they can be convinced?

It's messy no doubt.. lots to unpick.

We will get different results all over the place. And that is my point.

If the Brexit party got 30% on average what would they get in the areas which were well in favour of remain?

Half of me thinks a Remain party should start. No policies other than remain. The problem is that it would take votes away from the other parties and make it easier for Brexit party to win seats.

Whichever way you look at it there isn't an easy answer.