Astute
Well-Known Member
And a happy new year to you Mr Duffy
And a happy new year to you Mr DuffyWell this should be more entertaining than Moira Anderson
Services is one of the areas the EU hasn’t managed to create a frictionless single market itself. Service don’t also don’t attract duties in the same way other goods do. So the impact of Brexit on services is more limited than you’d probably think.
Personally, I’d rather us stay in the EU. However, if you’re going to do Brexit, you should break away from the EU’s legislative and regulatory orbit otherwise it defeats the purpose of leaving the EU. Otherwise, you’re leaving an organisation whilst remaining shackled to their rules and regulations without having the representation to influence their rules e.g. Norway and Turkey. Both Norway and Switzerland pay for access to the single market.
A soft Brexit is only good in a phased transition of leaving the EU, not the best long term solution. For example, remaining in a customs union, you can’t really have an independent trade policy. Whilst there’d be less disruption than the current arrangement, we’d be totally dependent on EU trade with no representation and less influence than inside the EU.
I appreciate that my views are quite nuanced. I’m a Remainer, but overall, this deal is reasonable as it achieves the goals of the Leave campaign.
Time will tell if it’s reasonable or not, it’s not been properly scrutinised or had the chance to be debated. The no deal threats were part of this and a way to create acceptance of the situation - I genuinely think Johnson would have extended the transition, why would he all of a sudden stopped doing major u-turns?
It doesn't make any difference so far. But nobody knows what could change in the future. I have 2 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days before I join them. Doesn't seem that long ago when we spoke about it when there was 4 years to go.@Astute how does this impact your long term move to France to join your family?
Time will tell if it’s reasonable or not, it’s not been properly scrutinised or had the chance to be debated. The no deal threats were part of this and a way to create acceptance of the situation - I genuinely think Johnson would have extended the transition, why would he all of a sudden stopped doing major u-turns?
Just like how he’d rather have been ‘dead in a ditch’ than delay Brexit; it you believe that you’d believe anything, it’s always been bluster.Johnson would have gone no deal definitely
Just like how he’d rather have been ‘dead in a ditch’ than delay Brexit; it you believe that you’d believe anything, it’s always been bluster.
Macron is the second strongest leader out of the EU countries. He said that he would block any kind of agreement that didn't include the rights of the French fishermen to fish in UK water. Boris said we would reclaim UK water. Macron got his wish.Both sides did significant variance. It’s pretty much accepted that the German leader and her mentor wanted a deal for manufacturing and the pipsquek Macron was put back in his box. The divergence from the May deal is far more aligned to a harder Brexit - yet Mr Starmer rejected the softer May option which would have had options to remain in the customs union
Johnson would have gone no deal definitely
Macron is the second strongest leader out of the EU countries. He said that he would block any kind of agreement that didn't include the rights of the French fishermen to fish in UK water. Boris said we would reclaim UK water. Macron got his wish.
So how is this twisted for you to say Macron was put back in his box?
I agree, it’s Johnson’s trademark - the exact same thing happened with the withdrawal agreement.
This government, unlike May’s, was actually determined to leave without a deal. In the short term, it would’ve been more damaging to us than to the EU. Boris’ mandate was to deliver Brexit, this was his last chance to deliver to all the new Tory voters he was serious about Brexit.
Generally, your political capital is at its highest when first elected. The longer it took to deliver Brexit, the weaker Johnson becomes as a leader.
So what can't French fishermen do today that they could do yesterday? What has changed? Why do the UK fishermen feel conned by Boris?Because he didn’t get his way over fishing in which he demanded zero concessions not just some rights. Veto would be a real clever action as that would have meant no rights to uk waters so I don’t get that comment at all.
He was the most unpopular leader of all Europe at the start of the pandemic. Ironically that saved him but again he is sliding in the polls. Ironically he is a more populist leader than Johnson
If no deal was never going to happen why was I about the only person saying so and we were hearing how bad it was going to be after leaving without a deal?No deal was never going to happen. We aren’t going to not trade with our neighbours, that’s insanity. No deal would’ve just meant a delayed deal and a lot of economic carnage until we crawled back begging for scraps.
“short term damage” is an indicator of someone who doesn’t know what they’re on about. Economics doesn’t work like that, lost growth is lost forever. There is no credible world where WTO terms would’ve led to an increase in trade even in the future that would come close to outweighing the damage. It’s unicorns and fairy level thinking.
We are the First Nation in history to try and reduce trade with our neighbours for a very good reason: it’s a monumentally stupid idea.
And I am made out to be a leaver although I have more to lose than most.
I don't want us to leave.
I want out of the EU.
In fairness we're not trying to reduce trade as such just introducing barriers to it, but like you say that is the opposite to every country in the world bar Trump's America.No deal was never going to happen. We aren’t going to not trade with our neighbours, that’s insanity. No deal would’ve just meant a delayed deal and a lot of economic carnage until we crawled back begging for scraps.
“short term damage” is an indicator of someone who doesn’t know what they’re on about. Economics doesn’t work like that, lost growth is lost forever. There is no credible world where WTO terms would’ve led to an increase in trade even in the future that would come close to outweighing the damage. It’s unicorns and fairy level thinking.
We are the First Nation in history to try and reduce trade with our neighbours for a very good reason: it’s a monumentally stupid idea.
No, you were conflating the emergency provisions for no deal with an actual deal.If no deal was never going to happen why was I about the only person saying so and we were hearing how bad it was going to be after leaving without a deal?
Aside from the fact that he’d lost a majority because he turned all Pol Pot and sacked off anyone with intelligence in his party.he delayed Brexit as Mr Starmer and co blocked him in parliament - that ended up well for Labour
May never had an option for staying in the customs union. In fact she was the Tory who very much set the U.K. on that path. Out means out was her often repeated cry from the day she took office.Both sides did significant variance. It’s pretty much accepted that the German leader and her mentor wanted a deal for manufacturing and the pipsquek Macron was put back in his box. The divergence from the May deal is far more aligned to a harder Brexit - yet Mr Starmer rejected the softer May option which would have had options to remain in the customs union
Johnson would have gone no deal definitely
If no deal was never going to happen why was I about the only person saying so and we were hearing how bad it was going to be after leaving without a deal?
You could do the same for him claiming to be the only person on here who called it right all along. The German car industry will come to the rescue, French need to sell us cheese and wine etc.Oh OK.
Yeah, fair enough.
Ah...
I’ll just correct you on one point there. The deal was already negotiated from a position of weakness, we never held all the fabled cards. No deal would have just put us in an even greater position of weakness in negotiations. Even Boris understood this, which was why he got a deal and possibly why Cummings had to go. I think even despite all his “it has to be a no deal” posturing Farage understood this, hence him celebrating the deal and no longer wanting to talk about fishing.You misunderstand. No deal isn’t a stable state. Any failure to get a deal by today would’ve just meant the eventual deal we would’ve got would’ve been negotiated from a position of weakness. The idea that we could trade with our closest neighbours on WTO terms forever is nonsense.
So we could’ve got to January with no deal either through right wing fruitloops getting high on their own supply or Johnson’s pure incompetence. But within months if not weeks they’d have been forced by reality to go running back with their tails between their legs asking for a deal.
How about showing the post and context of the last line.Oh OK.
Yeah, fair enough.
Ah...
Ah different kinds if no deals now to make your previous comments correct. I am amazed.You misunderstand. No deal isn’t a stable state. Any failure to get a deal by today would’ve just meant the eventual deal we would’ve got would’ve been negotiated from a position of weakness. The idea that we could trade with our closest neighbours on WTO terms forever is nonsense.
So we could’ve got to January with no deal either through right wing fruitloops getting high on their own supply or Johnson’s pure incompetence. But within months if not weeks they’d have been forced by reality to go running back with their tails between their legs asking for a deal.
To be fair at one point on here you did announce that you were backing leave and then switched back again.How about showing the post and context of the last line.
Or is it better to keep having digs at me. I wonder
No deal was never going to happen. We aren’t going to not trade with our neighbours, that’s insanity. No deal would’ve just meant a delayed deal and a lot of economic carnage until we crawled back begging for scraps.
“short term damage” is an indicator of someone who doesn’t know what they’re on about. Economics doesn’t work like that, lost growth is lost forever. There is no credible world where WTO terms would’ve led to an increase in trade even in the future that would come close to outweighing the damage. It’s unicorns and fairy level thinking.
We are the First Nation in history to try and reduce trade with our neighbours for a very good reason: it’s a monumentally stupid idea.
So how does the new deal and arrangements affect ex-pats now? I read somewhere about people in Spain now have to provide proof of income over 30K, no criminal record etc, somewhere else said there was a time limit per year - how much of is this accurate?
I know an expat in Spain and he says that they’ve had to apply for residency, swap their U.K. driving license for a Spanish one. Things like that. He also said that the majority of retiree ex pats voted leave and are now complaining about having to jump through the hoops they know they voted for.So how does the new deal and arrangements affect ex-pats now? I read somewhere about people in Spain now have to provide proof of income over 30K, no criminal record etc, somewhere else said there was a time limit per year - how much of is this accurate?
Not really, there’s plenty of historical examples, such as the break up of the USSR.
No Deal wouldn’t have increased trade with the EU, you’re right. Realistically, changing arrangements that have stood for 47 years would obviously cause some disruption whilst the market adjusts. Even with a ‘soft Brexit’, there’s still an increased amount of paperwork and bureaucracy added to UK-EU trade.
If you understand the Brexiteer’s arguments, they want to expand with non-EU nations in growing markets such as Asia. Our trade with Europe has been dropping since 1999 - even last year, 57% of our exports were to non-EU. The USA is our largest export and import market. Where the EU imposes some pretty hefty tariffs on some US goods on our behalf.
So, it makes sense on a level to increase trade globally with these markets - a constant theme Brexiteers is to reduce the reliance on the EU market. Within the EU, you cannot have an independent trade policy.
We have ‘no deal’ with the likes of the USA, China and yet everyone on this forum probably has goods that originate from these countries.
Trade with the EU is certainly not as easy as was the case before Brexit. However, with zero-tariff and zero-quota access, you can still trade with the EU freely - you just need customs declaration and some other measures for hauliers. Ultimately, people will adapt.
There’s certainly opportunities outside the EU. Will the government deliver on that? Who knows.
I don't really care tbh, we're all entitled to change our mind or, dare I say it, even be wrong now and again but... the astonishing tedium of being told how right he is all the time, and is here with his objective unbiased view to show us all the light, hallelujah! grates somewhat...You could do the same for him claiming to be the only person on here who called it right all along. The German car industry will come to the rescue, French need to sell us cheese and wine etc.
Unfortunately I have to say he’s very typical of many (not all) brexiteers in that he’s spent the last four and a half years trying to rewrite what they said and history.
It’s about the NHS. Day after the result, it was never about the NHS. It’s about fishing. Day after the trade agreement was announced, fishing? What fishing?
Think this is the key. We need to start seeing announcements of trade deals that are significantly better than the terms we had as members of the EU. And of course worth remembering that the EU are also going to be working to access emerging markets and do a trade deal.The fact of the matter is we’re all already poorer and will continue to get so even if we strike all these amazing trade deals (none of which so far have gone significantly above what we already had).
I know an expat in Spain and he says that they’ve had to apply for residency, swap their U.K. driving license for a Spanish one. Things like that. He also said that the majority of retiree ex pats voted leave and are now complaining about having to jump through the hoops they know they voted for.
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.Given that we can drive in the EU with a UK license, why would they have to swap? (bit unfair, as this was only announced today).
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.
Driving in Europe: UK licence holders living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland
Driving licence exchange and rules for drivers living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland.www.gov.uk
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.
Driving in Europe: UK licence holders living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland
Driving licence exchange and rules for drivers living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland.www.gov.uk
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