The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (67 Viewers)

[Kingokings204]

What exactly is the timescale on the EU crumbling apart and Austria, Holland and France leaving it as well?

Very good. But think about this...

We said the same about Britain and it happened. Say Britain would of voted to leave the EU just 2 years ago and you would of laughed me out the room. Well it happened so I guess watch this space on the others wouldn't you suggest?

 

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[Sick Boy]

Very good. But think about this...

We said the same about Britain and it happened. Say Britain would of voted to leave the EU just 2 years ago and you would of laughed me out the room. Well it happened so I guess watch this space on the others wouldn't you suggest?

I told a group of Italians in 2014 that a referendum in the UK would result in Brexit. As the date got closer I did think remain would win until the pathetic campaign.

 

[Kingokings204]

I told a group of Italians in 2014 that a referendum in the UK would result in Brexit. As the date got closer I did think remain would win until the pathetic campaign.

Both were pathetic campaigns tbf. Both sides lied and both sides were at fault. Brexit won because the EU wouldn't reform (Cameron sham renegotiation) and brexit was positive. It was open up to the world and control our own destiny where as remain was project fear. Threatened an emergency budget and house market would collapse and interest rates would rise massively all over night. . All lies as it turned out. You could argue brexit lied to but at least it was positive lies like 350m a week for the nhs it was a lie but it didn't need to be. Stating a more factual 200m would of been enough to convince people. It was positive.

And now we have a complete fuck up becasue we have an incompetent government where by the pm and chancellor are remainers. Biggest mistake ever. So we will leave the EU but keep a lot of the same stuff we had before so we are effectively half in half out so everyone is unhappy basically.

Anyway off to bed. Catch up tomorrow.

 

[martcov]

That's just pure rubbish. so the euro is good for Greece and giving them more and more money at Low interest rates is good for Greece and whilst you're at it blaming Greeks for overspending and them moving their money out the country.

You really hate Greece don't you. They have failed in your beloved EU. And you are too in denial to see the real issues.

Mart, Greece is failing because its trapped in a currency it never should of joined which even the big politicians all admit now. Trouble is they havent got the balls to let the banks go bust because if they do the EU goes bust because as I said it's German french and Italian banks that have bailed them out to the tune of 400 billion so if they don't get their money back the whole thing goes bang. If they let the banks go bust and then Greece have a chance. At the moment there are no jobs and no hope with big austerity. It's a third world country effectively.

And don't even get me started on constant boats turning up on random beaches for of hundreds of people from Africa illegally in front of tourists meaning they probably don't come back so costing them income they badly need. All because the eu policy of yes come come come. So guess what they have come. Greece then have to house and feed all these people. It can't afford to.

The Greeks did overspend in the 90's. The Greeks didn't collect their taxes. There were exceptions from some taxes for shipping, military ( generals ) families and so on. They should never have been admitted to the Euro and Theo Waigel is partly at fault for that.

I have no idea how you can read into that that I hate Greeks.

I didn't say that the Euro was good- or bad - for Greece, just pointed out some, but not all, reasons for Greece being in trouble. I also pointed out that it is a good thing that interest rates are at record lows otherwise Greece and others would bite the dust.

It is more the French banks at risk than the Germans..., but have a go at Merkel if it makes you feel better.

 

[martcov]

Both were pathetic campaigns tbf. Both sides lied and both sides were at fault. Brexit won because the EU wouldn't reform (Cameron sham renegotiation) and brexit was positive. It was open up to the world and control our own destiny where as remain was project fear. Threatened an emergency budget and house market would collapse and interest rates would rise massively all over night. . All lies as it turned out. You could argue brexit lied to but at least it was positive lies like 350m a week for the nhs it was a lie but it didn't need to be. Stating a more factual 200m would of been enough to convince people. It was positive.

And now we have a complete fuck up becasue we have an incompetent government where by the pm and chancellor are remainers. Biggest mistake ever. So we will leave the EU but keep a lot of the same stuff we had before so we are effectively half in half out so everyone is unhappy basically.

Anyway off to bed. Catch up tomorrow.

What is a positive lie? You voted for positive lies? FFS. You are going to be even more disappointed with this almighty fuck up.

Is David Davis a remainer? I think not. He is just pulling ideas out of a hat at the moment and really pissing the EU off who thought they would be negotiating against people who actually had prepared negotiating points. His latest demand to make deals at the same time as being in a transition was described as "Luftschlösser" according to the Germans - which means something similar to "pie in the sky".

There are several priorities to be dealt with before any transition gets debated. The British negotiators are becoming a laughing stock - especially after the photo with the EU team having prepared folders in front of them and the Brits having nothing on the table before Davis flew home a short time later.

Pisshead hadn't done his homework..

 

[skybluetony176]

Tony, start with some facts. I think the highest rate ever was in the region of 1.60-1.65. By 2004 the highest exchange rate was 1.45. The current rate is still higher than it dropped to around 2009/10.

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Quite right. I was very jetlagged when writing my original post. I read one thing on the subject and wrote something else.

The point stands though.

 

[Kingokings204]

The Greeks did overspend in the 90's. The Greeks didn't collect their taxes. There were exceptions from some taxes for shipping, military ( generals ) families and so on. They should never have been admitted to the Euro and Theo Waigel is partly at fault for that.

I have no idea how you can read into that that I hate Greeks.

I didn't say that the Euro was good- or bad - for Greece, just pointed out some, but not all, reasons for Greece being in trouble. I also pointed out that it is a good thing that interest rates are at record lows otherwise Greece and others would bite the dust.

It is more the French banks at risk than the Germans..., but have a go at Merkel if it makes you feel better.

You're missing the point with respect. Greece can't ever think about paying back the amount they owe and we are probably nearing another Bailout and what then just give them another loan at a low interest rate. It's not good enough and at some point it will have to go bang.

My point was if the Greeks need another bailout then why not let the banks go bust and start again. It's got to be better than just keep borrowing and borrowing never hoping to pay it back and the last time I checked money doesn't grow on trees. It can't simply borrow endless amounts of cash and it isn't there to borrow in any case. The problem remains if Greece default then the french German and Italian banks all go bang hence why they keep getting endless amounts of money. Whilst at the same time money and austerity increases with a lack of jobs and youth emolument very high. The EU amongst the youth is hated in south Europe where as here the youth tend to love the EU. It's the other way round.

P.S I never mentioned Merkel once.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Quite right. I was very jetlagged when writing my original post. I read one thing on the subject and wrote something else.

The point stands though.
.....
You're going to have to explain how that works because on face value of your fact less opinion it seems that you're trying to butter your bread both sides so long as you can say brexit isn't a mistake. Fact is the country had it's longest period of sustained growth ever while a willing member of the EU and the value of the pound reflects this.

The value of the pound is a reflection of interest rates. We've had record low interest rates for 6 years and a current account deficit which has careered downhill since the early 00s, it's hardly a surprise that the £ has tanked (Christ knows how it made its way back to €1.45 a couple of years back), though it is all a bit chicken and egg.

Inside or outside the EU we're wedded to an economic system that isn't really working.

 

[martcov]

You're missing the point with respect. Greece can't ever think about paying back the amount they owe and we are probably nearing another Bailout and what then just give them another loan at a low interest rate. It's not good enough and at some point it will have to go bang.

My point was if the Greeks need another bailout then why not let the banks go bust and start again. It's got to be better than just keep borrowing and borrowing never hoping to pay it back and the last time I checked money doesn't grow on trees. It can't simply borrow endless amounts of cash and it isn't there to borrow in any case. The problem remains if Greece default then the french German and Italian banks all go bang hence why they keep getting endless amounts of money. Whilst at the same time money and austerity increases with a lack of jobs and youth emolument very high. The EU amongst the youth is hated in south Europe where as here the youth tend to love the EU. It's the other way round.

P.S I never mentioned Merkel once.

Well, money does grow on trees when you need the support of some looney provincial party.

Whether it is fair or not, causing banks to fail usually has a snowball effect. It is a dilemma. Hopefully now that things are looking up in the Eurozone there may be ways out. I don't know if they all hate the EU in Southern Europe. We seem to be getting young Greeks and Spaniards here where I am. My daughter is going out with a guy from Southern Spain. He has joined a football club with several Spanish players. I don't think he hates the EU, but he says there is absolutely nothing down in southern Spain. You can get 50,00€ a day at harvest time working in baking heat, but that's about it. This is not new. There were Spanish clubs for the Spanish catering staff in London in the 80s and we were told there would be floods of Spanish workers in the future..... now we are shown pictures of refugees flooding in. Previously it was Irish, Kenyan and Ugandan Asians, Pakistanis, Indians etc.. anyway... I don't know where you got the statistic that the EU is hated by the youth in Southern Europe. Maybe it is, but I only see the ones who are glad to be able to look for jobs elsewhere in the EU.

 

[martcov]

The value of the pound is a reflection of interest rates. We've had record low interest rates for 6 years and a current account deficit which has careered downhill since the early 00s, it's hardly a surprise that the £ has tanked (Christ knows how it made its way back to €1.45 a couple of years back), though it is all a bit chicken and egg.

Inside or outside the EU we're wedded to an economic system that isn't really working.

Yes, but interest rates are at least as low in Europe. I think the value is negatively effected more through the uncertainty caused by Brexit. Each appearance of DD seems to increase the uncertainty or push the feeling that we are heading towards a cliff edge. Unless the UK gets to work on the priorities as listed by the EU negotiators, then expect the pound to remain on wobble.

 

[skybluetony176]

Yes, but interest rates are at least as low in Europe. I think the value is negatively effected more through the uncertainty caused by Brexit. Each appearance of DD seems to increase the uncertainty or push the feeling that we are heading towards a cliff edge. Unless the UK gets to work on the priorities as listed by the EU negotiators, then expect the pound to remain on wobble.

What is the ECB interest rate for the eurozone? Sure i remember reading somewhere it was 0.00%. Could be wrong, still jet lagged.

 

[martcov]

What is the ECB interest rate for the eurozone? Sure i remember reading somewhere it was 0.00%. Could be wrong, still jet lagged.

According to my lawyer ( I'm taking the taxman to court for charging 6% interest) German Treasury bonds have a negative interest- you pay them to have your money.

 

[skybluetony176]

According to my lawyer ( I'm taking the taxman to court for charging 6% interest) German Treasury bonds have a negative interest- you pay them to have your money.

So basically are we saying it wasn't our low interest rates inflating the GBP against the Euro as the Eurozone has even lower interest rates over the same period? So surely if interest rates were an over-riding factor in the strength of a currency for some reason it isn't happening for the pound against the euro? Or at least not how it's supposed to. Maybe, just maybe there's another over-riding factor that has effected the strength of the pound so much? Not just against the Euro either, pretty much every world currency whether said country has high or low interest rates the pound has taken a hit against over the last 14 months.

 

[martcov]

So basically are we saying it wasn't our low interest rates inflating the GBP against the Euro as the Eurozone has even lower interest rates over the same period? So surely if interest rates were an over-riding factor in the strength of a currency for some reason it isn't happening for the pound against the euro? Or at least not how it's supposed to. Maybe, just maybe there's another over-riding factor that has effected the strength of the pound so much? Not just against the Euro either, pretty much every world currency whether said country has high or low interest rates the pound has taken a hit against over the last 14 months.

Yes, and when it turns out we cannot agree on things like the Irish border or EU citizens rights then expect another dip. My Irish mates are getting annoyed as now the Brits say they are on Ireland's side against the EU's idea of a border. Neither the EU nor Ireland have created this potential problem. This is a British problem. A united Ireland would solve it with NI being granted regional privileges in their union with ROI. The whole of Ireland in the EU and the Eurozone. End of border problem - start of others, but they have the EU to help.

 

[martcov]

Also on the subject of British made problems... Davis has said that our new customs software will be ready in 2019, a couple of months before we leave. A) that's not what the people doing it said and B) he says the other countries will not be ready with their software. He says that's why we need a transition period.

I don't think other countries are as bothered as we are and I don't believe for one minute we have an acceptable system for exporting to the EU - ready by 2019. It is another problem we didn't have before the referendum. More and more customs related bureaucracy.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Also on the subject of British made problems... Davis has said that our new customs software will be ready in 2019, a couple of months before we leave. A) that's not what the people doing it said and B) he says the other countries will not be ready with their software. He says that's why we need a transition period.

I don't think other countries are as bothered as we are and I don't believe for one minute we have an acceptable system for exporting to the EU - ready by 2019. It is another problem we didn't have before the referendum. More and more customs related bureaucracy.

Realistically we will have pretty much the same control of our borders probably. The 'soft' border between NI & ROI reliance on number plate regognition is only as reliable as the vehicle the plate is on. I am thinking - what stops a Range Rover going out & a transit full of explosives/contraband/illegal weaponry/illegal immigrants coming back?
The thing that bugs me most is that the media & politicians are STILL bleating about businesses & the economy. Its like actual people are in some irrelevant parallel universe to them!

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[shmmeee]

All the economists at the time said it would be a disaster but ... politics talked them in to it.

Good job we’d never make such a stupid mistake eh?

 

[shmmeee]

Realistically we will have pretty much the same control of our borders probably. The 'soft' border between NI & ROI reliance on number plate regognition is only as reliable as the vehicle the plate is on. I am thinking - what stops a Range Rover going out & a transit full of explosives/contraband/illegal weaponry/illegal immigrants coming back?
The thing that bugs me most is that the media & politicians are STILL bleating about businesses & the economy. Its like actual people are in some irrelevant parallel universe to them!

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Do you think the economy consists of fake people? Like some kind of Truman Show?

(BTW, CCTV systems can easily track make and model and match them to reg should they wish. Though I thought they’d said no CCTV so maybe not. )

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Do you think the economy consists of fake people? Like some kind of Truman Show?

(BTW, CCTV systems can easily track make and model and match them to reg should they wish. Though I thought they’d said no CCTV so maybe not. )

Sorry...I have no idea what the fck you are on about.
Fake people? No, I am wondering whether the average man in the street really gives a shit about the value of the pound, the economy, GDP, exchange rates etc. What they NEED is to know in real terms - how much does my pint/mortgage/car (or whatever) cost now & after Brexit how much will it (HONESTLY & REALISTICALLY) cost me?
As for 'fake people' - all the rhetoric is money & business focused. As in real people/individuals don't exist. Its all stratified...which means heavily slanted toward that super-rich 5%.

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[fernandopartridge]

Sorry...I have no idea what the fck you are on about.
Fake people? No, I am wondering whether the average man in the street really gives a shit about the value of the pound, the economy, GDP, exchange rates etc. What they NEED is to know in real terms - how much does my pint/mortgage/car (or whatever) cost now & after Brexit how much will it (HONESTLY & REALISTICALLY) cost me?
As for 'fake people' - all the rhetoric is money & business focused. As in real people/individuals don't exist. Its all stratified...which means heavily slanted toward that super-rich 5%.

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The strength of the economy, value of the pound and exchange rates have a direct impact on the cost of pints / mortgages and cars. Of course people care about it. You just assume everybody is thick.

 

[clint van damme]

Sorry...I have no idea what the fck you are on about.
Fake people? No, I am wondering whether the average man in the street really gives a shit about the value of the pound, the economy, GDP, exchange rates etc. What they NEED is to know in real terms - how much does my pint/mortgage/car (or whatever) cost now & after Brexit how much will it (HONESTLY & REALISTICALLY) cost me?
As for 'fake people' - all the rhetoric is money & business focused. As in real people/individuals don't exist. Its all stratified...which means heavily slanted toward that super-rich 5%.

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Like the way you've put pint before mortgage or car!

 

[chiefdave]

You just assume everybody is thick.

Its not about being thick its about what the man on the street feels. Most people aren't following numerous financial indicators to see if they are better off or not. Its down to if they have more money in their pocket - are wages rising and / or can they buy more with their money.

Prime example is we get told that the economy has recovered to pre-financial crisis levels. That means nothing to most people as they are suffering wage suppression and rising prices.

 

[shmmeee]

The strength of the economy, value of the pound and exchange rates have a direct impact on the cost of pints / mortgages and cars. Of course people care about it. You just assume everybody is thick.

Classic example today.

I was chatting with a guy on my course about work and he suggested I move to Switzerland. I balked at first, assuming the wages were Monopoly money and would be fuck all, but actually with the fall in the pound they are very competitive now. So i, a real person, am now considering leaving along with my tax money, for mainland Europe.

I mean FFS hasn’t food gone up by something ridiculous like 20% this year? How anyone can claim that what happens in the economy (which is by definition the sum of everyone in the country’s transactions) doesn’t effect the average person is beyond me.

 

[Grendel]

Classic example today.

I was chatting with a guy on my course about work and he suggested I move to Switzerland. I balked at first, assuming the wages were Monopoly money and would be fuck all, but actually with the fall in the pound they are very competitive now. So i, a real person, am now considering leaving along with my tax money, for mainland Europe.

I mean FFS hasn’t food gone up by something ridiculous like 20% this year? How anyone can claim that what happens in the economy (which is by definition the sum of everyone in the country’s transactions) doesn’t effect the average person is beyond me.

The inflation basket includes food produce. So it's increased hardly st all.

 

[Grendel]

Food inflation in the last 12 months is 2.6%

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Oh well, it won't be long until the Euro collapses, and Austria, Holland and France leave the fascist commie EUSSR!

Does anyone know when Turkey is joining the EU, BTW?

You've just reminded me.

A few months ago you were gloating about the inevitable break up of the United Kingdom.

How's that one going then?

 

[martcov]

You've just reminded me.

A few months ago you were gloating about the inevitable break up of the United Kingdom.

How's that one going then?

Has the Irish border question been resolved? If not, it's still game on...

 

[SkyblueBazza]

The strength of the economy, value of the pound and exchange rates have a direct impact on the cost of pints / mortgages and cars. Of course people care about it. You just assume everybody is thick.

Not at all...but I recognise that people have feelings about stuff beyond the economy & what's good for business. There is an awful lot more to the average man in the street's life.
Like I have said before - if you're a brickie & some Romanian or whatever brickie comes over here and undercuts you because he/she is happy to live without satellite TV or a season ticket to watch Coventry play...that brickie will not give a damn about anything else but his/her loss - which he/she suffers whether they lose the work or work for!

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[SkyblueBazza]

Like the way you've put pint before mortgage or car!

Company car & no mortgage see

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[SkyblueBazza]

Classic example today.

I was chatting with a guy on my course about work and he suggested I move to Switzerland. I balked at first, assuming the wages were Monopoly money and would be fuck all, but actually with the fall in the pound they are very competitive now. So i, a real person, am now considering leaving along with my tax money, for mainland Europe.

I mean FFS hasn’t food gone up by something ridiculous like 20% this year? How anyone can claim that what happens in the economy (which is by definition the sum of everyone in the country’s transactions) doesn’t effect the average person is beyond me.

Has anyone claimed the economy doesn't affect the average person?

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[SkyblueBazza]

Food inflation in the last 12 months is 2.6%

Trouble is that the items are popular ones...& 'negotiations' can lead to the increases on what is included in the inflation basket being kept to a minimum

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[wingy]

Distortion through reduction in quantity over price rises too.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Has the Irish border question been resolved? If not, it's still game on...

That's bollocks. You show zero understanding of northern Ireland.

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[Sick Boy]

That's bollocks. You show zero understanding of northern Ireland.

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Most people in the UK couldn't give a toss either way about the NI and the GF agreement.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Most people in the UK couldn't give a toss either way about the NI and the GF agreement.

I don't think that's true at all. The GFA ended 30+ years of terror attacks from terrorists who make ISIS look like amateurs.
Besides, the point is that Brexit will not lead to a break up of the UK. The only party who talk about a hard border with the Republic of Ireland are the EU.

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