The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (97 Viewers)

[chiefdave]

I sense that there might be forces at work that could turn this situation on its head.

Just thinking outside the box, here’s a possible scenario to be played out over the coming months:

Labour supported by the SNP and other ‘Remainers’ create an opportunity to force a vote of no confidence in the Government resulting in a General Election.

They then stand on a central manifesto pledge of staying in the EU and it’s job done. Labour/SNP coalition Government and UK stay in the EU.

I'm surprised Labour hasn't made a move like that even prior to this. With the SNP strong in Scotland as an alternative to the Conservatives its going to be incredibly difficult for Labour to regain ground. A coalition of sorts with them, and possibly also firming up the link with the SDLP could be the only way Labour can ever get into power again.

Already murmurs from the EU about creating some sort of exception to the EU entry requirements to allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to stay if they hold referendums to leave the UK.

With Cameron leaving there will be pressure for a general election. If, as you suggest, Labour run on a pro EU platform along with other parties and there is a coalition victory things will get very interesting.

I wouldn't discount there being another EU referendum in the next couple of years.

 

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[chiefdave]

do we keep going until someone gets 60%? - chances are each time you have a referendum turnout would fall so never get 75%

The only way you could do it would be to have a compulsory vote. Then you'd have a majority of the electorate voting one way or another.

 

[chiefdave]

is that bit a wind up or are there some people who actually want that to happen? Lets hope some of the millions we've saved from Brussels goes into mental health treatment!

Sure the vast majority of those who have signed have given it no thought and just signed it as a joke but there will also be those who see it as a serious proposition.
With so much of the nations wealth in one city its pretty much the same argument again.

 

[martcov]

If you needed further evidence of the dictatorial attitude of the EU elite:

“Out is out,” said Elmar Brok, a member of the Christian Democratic party and leader of the foreign affairs committee in the European Parliament. “We have to prevent copycats now.” (The Economist 24th June 2016)

It may have escaped Herr Brok's notice that the 'copycat' nations to which he refers are in fact democracies.

As such and motivated by the decision of the UK they will now no doubt feel empowered to stand against the arrogance of the EU and follow our lead.

I think the 'out is out' bit is referring to the democratic result of the referendum. You wanted it, you got it.

 

[chiefdave]

Don't know what everyone is worried about anyway, sure everything will be fine

 

[martcov]

How refreshing to read such 'common sense' !

No-one was talking about the eurozone. The comments about countries being shackled to the euro are not relevant here. The referendum was about the EU, not the Euro.

 

[tisza]

I'm surprised Labour hasn't made a move like that even prior to this.

because there has to be a real chance that they could lose seats to UKIP. There was a large number of Labour supporters who backed leave.
Also there is the obvious risk that Tory remain MPs who supported these steps would risk deselection before the election to be replaced by Brexit candidates.
Also all parties gave a commitment to honour the outcome of the referendum -when they thought it would be a remain victory. To go back on that would damage the credibility of all involved.

 

[martcov]

If you needed further evidence of the dictatorial attitude of the EU elite:

“Out is out,” said Elmar Brok, a member of the Christian Democratic party and leader of the foreign affairs committee in the European Parliament. “We have to prevent copycats now.” (The Economist 24th June 2016)

It may have escaped Herr Brok's notice that the 'copycat' nations to which he refers are in fact democracies.

As such and motivated by the decision of the UK they will now no doubt feel empowered to stand against the arrogance of the EU and follow our lead.

Our lead being scaring the electorate with racist propaganda and associated bullshit and then jetisoning ourselves into the unknown - probably destroying the Union in the process. Yes, I can see a lot of sensible people following our lead e.g. Le Pen, Petry.. supported vocally by the likes of Farage and Trump. Sounds great....

 

[martcov]

Mr Anti English................Do you know wherever it is you are off to I hope they haven't got Wifi !!

Do you class a vote that could destroy the Union as pro English? If so will you be backing Referenda in Scotland and Northern Ireland?

 

[skybluetony176]

Our lead being scaring the electorate with racist propaganda and associated bullshit and then jetisoning ourselves into the unknown - probably destroying the Union in the process. Yes, I can see a lot of sensible people following our lead e.g. Le Pen, Petry.. supported vocally by the likes of Farage and Trump. Sounds great....

Not to mention Yeltsin also praised the result. It's hardly a glowing reference when the people who are praising the result internationally are people you wouldn't trust to baby sit your kids.

 

[martcov]

And how many countries has it helped to recover so far?

The Germans are pissed off as we won't be paying towards the majority of the other countries. But they know that they will be better off having a good trade deal with us as we buy much more off them than they buy off us.

You made the point that the poorer countries that join get money to help improve them. But what really happens is a lot of the younger people leave to live in a more prosperous country. So they are left with a higher proportion of older people. This makes it more difficult to rebuild. So they rely on even more money to be given to them. Jobs don't get created so even more leave. And even more move to where they can find work.

Are the Germans pissed off because of us not paying in? Maybe that will come, but at the moment they are stunned. They cannot understand our 'suicide'. I was interviewed 5 times by papers and TV on Friday. The papers are full of interviews with Brits and Germans who are connected with the UK. We have the AfD here who are against migrants, refugees and the EU, but they are becoming an embarassment. They want a Referendum, as does Seehofer ( PM of Bavaria ), but that is not allowed in the Constitution. Adolf Hitler used Referenda to justify his Realpolitik ( it was democracy, get over it..). I doubt whether Seehofer will get the Constitution changed - especially after seeing what happened in the UK.

 

[chiefdave]

To go back on that would damage the credibility of all involved.

You mean like the Conservatives 16 point contract with voters in the 2010 general election? The one where they said "if we don't deliver our side of the bargain, kick us out in five years"?

Didn't actually stick to any of the 16 points yet got a bigger share of the vote in the next election!

 

[SkyBlue_Bear83]

And confirmed that people are stupid.

I think there are lots of stupid people on both sides of the argument tbf

 

[Terry Gibson's perm]

I think there are lots of stupid people on both sides of the argument tbf

And lots of clever ones

 

[Grendel]

Our lead being scaring the electorate with racist propaganda and associated bullshit and then jetisoning ourselves into the unknown - probably destroying the Union in the process. Yes, I can see a lot of sensible people following our lead e.g. Le Pen, Petry.. supported vocally by the likes of Farage and Trump. Sounds great....

Destroying the union? I don't think so. Scotland may not like it but when you look at the economic argument they presented last time to now there is a 17 billion hole to fill - and of course then they argued they'd keep the pound.

Scotland are going nowhere and northern Island certainly aren't.

 

[FRY-CCFC]

FTSE recovering from the initial shock now just 2% down.

Sterling back up to $1.38 vs last week average $1.43.

Calm down all's good and the bonus is that Corbyn will soon be crawling back under his rock.

It's an illusory recovery from the FTSE100

 

[chiefdave]

It's an illusory recovery from the FTSE100

In any case the FTSE250 is probably a better indicator for the impact of the referendum.

 

[FRY-CCFC]

Wonder how you leave voters feel about being lied to on two massive features of the leave campaign

 

[Ian1779]

Wonder how you leave voters feel about being lied to on two massive features of the leave campaign

What's worse is how stupid you would have to be to think either of those things they lied about would be even remotely feasible to achieve.

 

[skybluetony176]

Wonder how you leave voters feel about being lied to on two massive features of the leave campaign

I suspect that most of them have their heads buried so far in the sand that they're probably not even aware that they have been lied to.

 

[chiefdave]

Wonder how you leave voters feel about being lied to on two massive features of the leave campaign

Won't be too easy to forget what was promised.


Looking at the official leave campaign site it seems their key pledges are:
Extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS, schools and housing
Control of our borders
Control of immigration
Trade deals with the whole world - specifically mentions Australia, New Zealand, China, India and Brazil
Make our own laws

Well we already make our own laws and control our borders so those pledges are somewhat moot which leaves the extra £350m a week to spend, cutting immigration and worldwide trade deals.

 

[skybluetony176]

Won't be too easy to forget what was promised.
View attachment 5361

Looking at the official leave campaign site it seems their key pledges are:
Extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS, schools and housing
Control of our borders
Control of immigration
Trade deals with the whole world - specifically mentions Australia, New Zealand, China, India and Brazil
Make our own laws

Well we already make our own laws and control our borders so those pledges are somewhat moot which leaves the extra £350m a week to spend, cutting immigration and worldwide trade deals.

Add to that the the leaders of the leave campaign still don't want to commit figures or time scales to what the reduction in EU immigrants will be. Not that they ever did in the first place. Suggestion was enough to convince a lot of people.

 

[chiefdave]

Add to that the the leaders of the leave campaign still don't want to commit figures or time scales to what the reduction in EU immigrants will be. Not that they ever did in the first place. Suggestion was enough to convince a lot of people.

My fear is the EU are going to push us out as quickly as possible giving us little time to negotiate good deals.
The £350m a week certainly won't materialise as its not a valid figure and any deal with the EU is sure to include freedom of movement so the two biggest polices are write offs.

 

[Grendel]

Grapes have gone well past their sell by date on this thread

 

[Ian1779]

Grapes have gone well past their sell by date on this thread

Maybe, but you know that the NHS claim was bollocks.

 

[Grendel]

Maybe, but you know that the NHS claim was bollocks.

Lots of claims are bollocks on the political stage.

The bottom line is that the vote was given only to try and get people to vote Tory at the last election and if anyone wants to throw rocks at someone throw them at the hapless oaf Corbyn, who having not decided to go the way he wanted to, put a shrug my shoulders sulk on throughout and offered his electorate nothing. He clearly did not give a fuck if we remained so why should his parties followers?

Blame him no-one else

 

[chiefdave]

The two most common searches on Google in the UK the day after the referendum:

What is the EU
What does it mean to leave the EU

Probably left it a bit late to google those.

 

[Grendel]

The two most common searches on Google in the UK the day after the referendum:

What is the EU
What does it mean to leave the EU

Probably left it a bit late to google those.

What is the EU - a federal non democratic organisation despised by most inhabitants

What does it mean to leave the EU - be the envy of all the miserable inhabitants who are tied to it due to their lock in with the Euro

 

[martcov]

Destroying the union? I don't think so. Scotland may not like it but when you look at the economic argument they presented last time to now there is a 17 billion hole to fill - and of course then they argued they'd keep the pound.

Scotland are going nowhere and northern Island certainly aren't.

Good, but I still think we should ask them through a referendum. It is a bit arrogant to decide for them.

 

[martcov]

What is the EU - a federal non democratic organisation despised by most inhabitants

What does it mean to leave the EU - be the envy of all the miserable inhabitants who are tied to it due to their lock in with the Euro

Most here think we are mad and arme not envying us ( far right and racists excepted ). Yesterday was shock in Germany. Today the snide anti British comments have started... And a few people have said they won't buy my British products because of Brexit. They asked my daughter if she has applied for a work permit...

Seems shock is turning to resentment.

 

[Moff]

On the whole they recovered although worryingly banks and house builders didn't. Economists are also predicting further falls next week both on the stock exchange and with the pound from what I saw on the news last night. So to coin a phrase it doesn't look like we're at the bottom of this cycle yet and of course the deeper the cycle the longer it takes to get out, the road to recovery is always longer than the fall and couple that with at least two years of uncertainty while negotiations go on plus then another period of uncertainty that will be of unknown length of how the UK (or what's left of it) settle's on it's own it could be a long long time before the UK see's growth again and it could be decades before we even get back to levels we were at.

Out of interest when the Banks and House builders crashed in the recession were you thinking of emigrating then? were you on the site bemoaning the state of the economy then?

The economy and shares recovered, as they will again, but it will take time. I am worried, but the over the top analysis and hyperbole in the press and on this site is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[martcov]

Oh look in the spirit of democracy "euro style" the losers want to do it all again until we get the right answer.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.mi...rexit-petition-calling-second-eu-8278791.amp#

Scotland and Northern Ireland gave the right answer. Get over it and let them decide if they want to leave the Union to stay in the EU.

 

[Sumo the Micky Quinn]

What is the EU - a federal non democratic organisation despised by most inhabitants

What does it mean to leave the EU - be the envy of all the miserable inhabitants who are tied to it due to their lock in with the Euro

Who has the final say in making UK laws.

I believe the laws are first discussed by elected politicians then past onto the
unelected house of lords and then finally the unelected monarch.

 

[Moff]

This wasn't right versus left. Besides the two most left wing parties had by far the highest remain vote.

It was young vs old and educated vs uneducated. It was people voting to say theyre sick of it all, often without a clue what they are voting for.

You know they don't know what they were voting for because they keep using the Union Flag despite basically having just voted to disband the union.

You are a clown aren't you. I know plenty of friends who are well educated with degrees, PHD's and doctorates. Some voted for, some against. Unlike you I respect their opinions whether I agree or not, but I am not such an arrogant prick to think they were uneducated if they voted leave, or remain.

 

[FRY-CCFC]

MEP David Hannan a big vote leave campaigner said on newsnight last night he's not against freedom of movement. The reaction of Evan Davis was fantastic. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36628894