The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (118 Viewers)

[Astute]

what is your definition of short and long term?
I don't think a decade plus is short term, (though in the grand scheme of things it probably is). You may think it will turn around before that, if so what do you base that on?

How long is a piece of string?

Short term a few years. It all depends on what sort of deal there is. A good deal and we might not even notice the difference. Neither would the countries that sell to us. But it isn't down to the business leaders who do want a good deal.

 

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[Sick Boy]

I will try once more with you on seeing if you can have an honest debate on the subject before I ignore you like I am with Mart.

Like where?

The EU don't alliw us to make trade deals with any country in the world. We still can't make any now until we have left.

The EU only has about 10% of the world population. And they would like a trade deal with us. We buy more than we sell. Are you saying that the other 90% of the world won't want to have trade deals with us once we are allowed to have them when most of our trade is already outside the EU without having trade deals?

Why ignore someone you disagree with? It's better I debate rather than just ignore the other's opinion.

 

[clint van damme]

I agree. A lot of our manufacturing has moved to cheaper places including around the EU. The quality has gone right down as well. The things we used to buy that you would replace years later when still working are replaced with items that don't last long. We need to get back to quality manufacturing where people buy our goods because of the quality.

I would agree with that whether in or out of the EU but would add we need to make high end goods using cutting edge technology that can't be replicated cheaply in some foreign country.
The problem is we have a diminishing skill base which is why we are becoming less productive.
We need to be more productive to increase our tax revenues but to increase it we need to spend on training when we are trying to reduce the deficit and keep a tight rein on public spending, it's a conundrum.

 

[Astute]

I have goods from various EU countries that are labelled as being made in their country of origin. I also have products that are labelled made in England.

It could say the UK if only packaged here.

 

[clint van damme]

How long is a piece of string?

Short term a few years. It all depends on what sort of deal there is. A good deal and we might not even notice the difference. Neither would the countries that sell to us. But it isn't down to the business leaders who do want a good deal.

if we leave the EU with a deal I will be a lot more optimistic about the future even though I still think we will have a rocky road ahead.
I think no deal will be disastrous.

 

[Sick Boy]

It was supposed to be an instant disaster if we voted leave. Nearly all of it was wrong. Yes the £ took a hit. But that was bound to happen. Financial markets don't like uncertainty. But what about everything else we were told would happen?

No stock market crash
No house price crash
Unemployment didn't shoot up

Yes the opposite happened. All we can do is make predictions. Our productivity went up because the £ went down. Our goods became cheaper around the world. Their products cost more. If the £ goes down again our goods get even cheaper. That is how money markets work. That is how Germany has a massive advantage being in the Euro and the weaker countries a massive disadvantage.

We were also told that we'd have £350m a week for the NHS; we wouldn't leave the single market; we would all be be better off fiancially; the negotiations would be the easiest in our history.

It's hardly surprising though when some were banging on about the colour of passports as being a major issue.

 

[Sick Boy]

It could say the UK if only packaged here.

No, they are actually made in England. I also have clients who build products in the UK, which they use as a USP.

 

[Astute]

Why ignore someone you disagree with? It's better I debate rather than just ignore the other's opinion.

It isn't the disagreeing. It is the crap that comes with not wanting to admit being wrong and constant accusations. The not wanting to see anything they don't want to agree with. The impossibility of having a proper debate.

 

[skybluetony176]

I agree. A lot of our manufacturing has moved to cheaper places including around the EU. The quality has gone right down as well. The things we used to buy that you would replace years later when still working are replaced with items that don't last long. We need to get back to quality manufacturing where people buy our goods because of the quality.

Building quality is how the company I work for has survived. Good old fashioned belt and braces engineering. Some markets that moved away from it for fancy new technologies are gradually moving back as the old fashioned technology had a design life of 25+ years whereas the newer cheaper lightweight only has a design life of 5-10. Some industries we supply into have learned this the hard way. So in some respects by not changing we’ve found ourselves in a good place but here’s the rub. The reason we didn’t change the technology was simply because we couldn’t afford as a small scale manufacturer to adopt, invest, design and innovate the newer technologies so we didn’t change and manufactured to a niche, stepping between the cracks. The engineering we do is basic and fairly labour intensive but easy to set up if you know what you’re doing. This means that the big international companies can replicate what we do and what they used to do very easily and very cheaply and they already are on a small scale. I’m talking about companies like Siemens, Schneider, Borri and a few others. All with manufacturing based on the continent, all can do what we do and all can issue an EU C of O. We can compete on price with them on the smaller jobs which suits us as we can control our cash flow unlike on larger jobs, what we won’t be able to do soon is issue an EU C of O and that’s already looking to become a problem for us. Our market is looking to be slashed overnight. I doubt we’ll be alone either.

 

[Sick Boy]

It isn't the disagreeing. It is the crap that comes with not wanting to admit being wrong and constant accusations. The not wanting to see anything they don't want to agree with. The impossibility of having a proper debate.

There are plenty on the other side like that but you don't seem to pull them up?

 

[skybluetony176]

This depends on the trade deal with the EU. But UK quality is seen as better than EU. They know where it is coming from.

I also work in manufacturing for a worldwide company. Our profits in the UK are massively better than in the rest of the EU. The problem that the UK has is we will need to bring manufacturing back into the UK.

How does no longer being able to issue an EU C of O depend on a trade deal with the EU? We won’t be in the EU and that’s the problem.

 

[chiefdave]

Why is the EU having problems making trade deals?

Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

 

[Astute]

if we leave the EU with a deal I will be a lot more optimistic about the future even though I still think we will have a rocky road ahead.
I think no deal will be disastrous.

Wouldn't we all.

All we can do is guess. I would say we have as much of a chance of getting a flying start as we do a bad start. Rocky road? Good possibility. But we have the advantage of having the £.

We have as much chance of guessing what will happen as I do guessing what sort of mood my wife will wake up in the morning with.

 

[skybluetony176]

Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

View attachment 8433

Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.

 

[Sick Boy]

Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.

Australia ready to do post-Brexit trade deal – but EU comes first

 

[chiefdave]

Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations?

Indeed, there's also an issue that I read about in a Canadian paper. Canada are happy to talk to the UK about a trade deal however they won't commence talks until after we have left the EU as trade deals with the EU prohibit negotiations with an individual EU member.

Of course the same will apply elsewhere.

 

[Astute]

There are plenty on the other side like that but you don't seem to pull them up?

Look at this thread again then. Most days it is a witch hunt against anyone who says anything against the EU or Corbyn. Most days it is a one sided rant and not a debate. So it keeps going around in circles.

I have always tried to be polite and put across good and bad from each side. Have you ever tried havi g a debate with those who have a fixed view and will defend it whatever?

 

[Astute]

Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

View attachment 8433

So what are these deals?

 

[Astute]

Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.

You think that the EU has good trade deals over most of the world?

 

[Astute]

Australia ready to do post-Brexit trade deal – but EU comes first

Is that supposed to be bad news for the UK?

As they say they want a trade deal with us as soon as we have left the EU and they can't stop us anymore from making one. Do you think Australia are the only ones waiting for us to be able to?

 

[martcov]

So why did our exports go up then?

Why is our gdp set to decline each year over the next years according to the chancellor?

 

[Astute]

Indeed, there's also an issue that I read about in a Canadian paper. Canada are happy to talk to the UK about a trade deal however they won't commence talks until after we have left the EU as trade deals with the EU prohibit negotiations with an individual EU member.

Of course the same will apply elsewhere.

Exactly. Once we are able countries want to make deals. We haven't been allowed for years through being in the EU. And we have paid about 1.5 trillion to the EU over the years to lose this right to trade freely with the rest of the world.

That is why I can't see it as being a disaster for us.

 

[martcov]

It was supposed to be an instant disaster if we voted leave. Nearly all of it was wrong. Yes the £ took a hit. But that was bound to happen. Financial markets don't like uncertainty. But what about everything else we were told would happen?

No stock market crash
No house price crash
Unemployment didn't shoot up

Yes the opposite happened. All we can do is make predictions. Our productivity went up because the £ went down. Our goods became cheaper around the world. Their products cost more. If the £ goes down again our goods get even cheaper. That is how money markets work. That is how Germany has a massive advantage being in the Euro and the weaker countries a massive disadvantage.

2 EU offices gone this week, gdp forecast reduced for at least the next few years, pound dropped again.... How does Germany have a massive advantage by the Euro being strong and stable? You just said a weaker currency has the advantage of reducing the costs of U.K. goods. According to that, Germany would also be better off with a weaker Euro.

 

[Captain Dart]

We were also told that we'd have £350m a week for the NHS; we wouldn't leave the single market; we would all be be better off fiancially; the negotiations would be the easiest in our history.

It's hardly surprising though when some were banging on about the colour of passports as being a major issue.

A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts

 

[skybluetony176]

You think that the EU has good trade deals over most of the world?

They’re better than WTO which is what we’ll be mostly defaulting to when we leave. We’ve then got to negotiate a trade deal with pretty much everyone.

Do you think we’ll be able to make better deals than we were enjoying as part of the EU? Because that’s the real test here isn’t it? Anyone can make a trade deal but if our trade deal with any given country isn’t at least equal to the one we had as part of the EU then we’re pissing into the wind. Who’s got more clout on the world stage? The worlds biggest trading bloc or a single country on its own?

 

[Astute]

They’re better than WTO which is what we’ll be mostly defaulting to when we leave. We’ve then got to negotiate a trade deal with pretty much everyone.

Do you think we’ll be able to make better deals than we were enjoying as part of the EU? Because that’s the real test here isn’t it? Anyone can make a trade deal but if our trade deal with any given country isn’t at least equal to the one we had as part of the EU then we’re pissing into the wind. Who’s got more clout on the world stage? The worlds biggest trading bloc or a single country on its own?

Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.

 

[Kingokings204]

Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.

Yes it doesn’t have to be a deal for 28. It could be a deal to suit us.
So yes I see many more better deals for this country again competence dependent.

 

[Kingokings204]

A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts

The biggest lie of all was back at the start. We are only joining a common market. Remember that lie? Nothing comes close to that for me.

 

[skybluetony176]

Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.

EU trade deals are designed to protect it’s member states. That did include us. It protects us against inferior cheaper products such as American beef and poultry protecting our farm industry. The EU can achieve this against the mighty USA because it’s the worlds biggest trading bloc and has negotiating power because of that.

The USA has already mooted their inferior unethically farmed beef and poultry coming into the U.K. which isn’t good for our farming industry. We already have the government declaring animals can’t feel pain. Is this paving the way for a drop in animal welfare standards so our farmers can adopt US farming practices so they can compete with US imports? What other standards and principles that we hold dear might we have to give up and compromise on as a cost of leaving the EU and persuing trade deals with other countries. Some things aren’t a price worth paying and they aren’t always things that you can put a pound amount on and show on a spreadsheet. Principles being one of them.

 

[Sick Boy]

Look at this thread again then. Most days it is a witch hunt against anyone who says anything against the EU or Corbyn. Most days it is a one sided rant and not a debate. So it keeps going around in circles.

I have always tried to be polite and put across good and bad from each side. Have you ever tried havi g a debate with those who have a fixed view and will defend it whatever?

Yes quite a few times recently.

It's hardly a witch hunt against anyone, like yourself, who is against the EU. It's pretty evenly split as far as I can see. To claim otherwise is simply not true.

 

[Sick Boy]

A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts

Ahhh yes multiple lies are just one small lie. What rubbish.

 

[Sick Boy]

Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.

The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.

 

[skybluetony176]

The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.

That’s the other danger of course if the brexit negotiations with the EU are anything to go by.

 

[Astute]

Yes quite a few times recently.

It's hardly a witch hunt against anyone, like yourself, who is against the EU. It's pretty evenly split as far as I can see. To claim otherwise is simply not true.

I am not against the EU. In principle it is good. But it includes so much that is bad. And they put egos before what is best for the people of the EU.

 

[Astute]

The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.

What makes you say that?

If it don't benefit us we won't sign it. If it doesn't benefit them they won't sign it. There is a lot more to protect in 28 regions than just 1.