The Run In (3 Viewers)

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
Of the remaining 8 left, I only see Lincoln at home and Cheltenham away as being potentially very tricky, with Newport potentially a bit tricky.
I expect the others to be eminently winnable if we apply ourselves. If I was offered more than 4 points from the first 3 games mentioned, I would take it now.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
I can’t believe people are predicting we go unbeaten, that would be 14 games without a loss. When have we ever done that?

1966-67 2nd Div promotion side went 25 without defeat, featuring the man to your left in a starring role (I saw the last defeat at home against Crystal Palace, and the first win of nthe run - against Cardiff - Gibbo got 2 )
 

kapowaz

Well-Known Member
Sooo I’ve been working on a little tool to try and help predict the outcome of the league more accurately, which you can find here: http://predictor.ccfc.nu (it’s on a free Heroku hosting plan so if nobody visits it for a few minutes it may take 30 seconds or so to spin up at first). Right now you can just enter future fixture results and it should update the table accordingly. I’m going to look into adding something to automatically run through possible permutations of results (which will become easier the closer to the end of season we get).

It may have bugs!
 

tigersb

Well-Known Member
Yep. That's it in a nutshell.

If we keep winning and our rivals keep winning, then hats off to them, but the likelihood is that if we keep winning game in, game out others will not be able to match that and keep parity, because a lot of them play each other anyway.

And besides, if it comes to the last game of the season, who has the most winnable game on paper out of these 3 fixtures.

City v Morecambe

Notts County v Luton

Swindon v Accrington
If you look at the form table then Notts appear to have easiest fixture
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
What is going on here? I was supposedly deluded a few weeks ago for thinking we still had a chance of making the top 3.

As I said before there is normally at least one side that drops away and at least one side that comes under the radar to take an unexpected place. I still think that could be us. We have hit form at the right time. Our form is the second best of the division. The only club above us in the form table has a harder run in.

To get an idea on this could go take the average points from the last 6 games to the remaining games.

Luton last 6 games 7 points 74
Stanley 6 games 16 points 74
Wycombe 6 games 8 points 70
Notts County 6 games 8 points 66
Exeter 6 games 11 points 66
CITY 6 games 14 points 64
Mansfield 6 games 7 points 63
Lincoln 6 games 8 poiints 61
Swindon 6 games 6 points 60
Carlisle 6 games 12 points 57

But when you add to this the average points last 6 games and remaining games left it changes a bit


Stanley 98
CITY 83
Luton 82
Exeter 81
Wycombe 79
Notts County 75
Mansfield 72
Lincoln 72
Carlisle 71
Swindon 68

I know that you can't rely on present form of all clubs to continue. But it shows how our current form is against the others in numbers. And Swindon, who some seem to fear the most are on a bad run.

I am happier to support a club that is catching up with the other clubs over supporting a club that is being caught at the end of the season. We all know what it is like to finish badly. You sit there wondering where your next points are coming from.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
What is going on here? I was supposedly deluded a few weeks ago for thinking we still had a chance of making the top 3.

As I said before there is normally at least one side that drops away and at least one side that comes under the radar to take an unexpected place. I still think that could be us. We have hit form at the right time. Our form is the second best of the division. The only club above us in the form table has a harder run in.

To get an idea on this could go take the average points from the last 6 games to the remaining games.

Luton last 6 games 7 points 74
Stanley 6 games 16 points 74
Wycombe 6 games 8 points 70
Notts County 6 games 8 points 66
Exeter 6 games 11 points 66
CITY 6 games 14 points 64
Mansfield 6 games 7 points 63
Lincoln 6 games 8 poiints 61
Swindon 6 games 6 points 60
Carlisle 6 games 12 points 57

But when you add to this the average points last 6 games and remaining games left it changes a bit


Stanley 98
CITY 83
Luton 82
Exeter 81
Wycombe 79
Notts County 75
Mansfield 72
Lincoln 72
Carlisle 71
Swindon 68

I know that you can't rely on present form of all clubs to continue. But it shows how our current form is against the others in numbers. And Swindon, who some seem to fear the most are on a bad run.

I am happier to support a club that is catching up with the other clubs over supporting a club that is being caught at the end of the season. We all know what it is like to finish badly. You sit there wondering where your next points are coming from.

We have hit form at the right time.

But if you cast your mind back just a few weeks, we hadn't had an unbeaten run past 4 games all season, so to think we could suddenly conjure up 6 + obviously manifested doubts from posters, myself included.

There was also the loss of Davies and then Willis too. Who would have thought Hyam would come in and do so well!

I am delighted that I was wrong in thinking we couldn't go on a long unbeaten run (don't want to tempt fate here cos a defeat could possibly be right around the corner), but long may it continue.

An unbeaten run brings confidence and when you have the momentum that can be a really powerful thing.

I'm still not at all convinced we can bag 3rd, but a play off place seems all but certain now and the fact midfielders are now starting to score too has given us a tremendous boost.

We now look stronger with the addition of JCH and Kyel Reid back in the fold. Hopefully Baker can add to our options too.

Just can't see the DKE's back in now unless there are injuries. We now look stronger and more solid.

Keys for me are, no DKE's, the addition of JCH, Vincenti back in on the right and Bayliss in the middle.

We now need to go one game at a time and to try our utmost to win each one, with us keep ticking them off as we go.

The thought of winning 6 out of 8 makes for a huge task, but if we can keep ticking them off and concentrate only on one game at a time then you never know.

If we can draw at Notts County and Newport then the other games all look winnable.
 

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
For me, Newport is the biggest game of the season , we cannot afford to lose
Win that, and we would then expect to beat Yeovil

we then play Notts county, which is our catch up match with Wycombe. That match will be like a cup final if we get 4-6 points from the 1st 2, as it will really be win or bust, and with 4000 of the SBA, things could role

so 7 points from the next 3, and hoping Wycombe drop at least 2 points in the next 2

This friday is so important, because the other games are
Colchester v Luton (not easy)
Lincoln v Exeter (6 pointer)
Mansfield v Accrington (Away win or draw please)
Notts Co V Wycombe (6 pointer)
Swindon v Morecambe - we can but hope :)

Win and we make up ground on most of the pack
Lose or Draw and 2 or 3 of the teams will probably make ground on us
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
For me, Newport is the biggest game of the season , we cannot afford to lose
Win that, and we would then expect to beat Yeovil

we then play Notts county, which is our catch up match with Wycombe. That match will be like a cup final if we get 4-6 points from the 1st 2, as it will really be win or bust, and with 4000 of the SBA, things could role

so 7 points from the next 3, and hoping Wycombe drop at least 2 points in the next 2

This friday is so important, because the other games are
Colchester v Luton (not easy)
Lincoln v Exeter (6 pointer)
Mansfield v Accrington (Away win or draw please)
Notts Co V Wycombe (6 pointer)
Swindon v Morecambe - we can but hope :)

Win and we make up ground on most of the pack
Lose or Draw and 2 or 3 of the teams will probably make ground on us
Morecambe are doing rather well in the current form table and Swindon do have a poor home record, so you never know.
 

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
Sooo I’ve been working on a little tool to try and help predict the outcome of the league more accurately, which you can find here: http://predictor.ccfc.nu (it’s on a free Heroku hosting plan so if nobody visits it for a few minutes it may take 30 seconds or so to spin up at first). Right now you can just enter future fixture results and it should update the table accordingly. I’m going to look into adding something to automatically run through possible permutations of results (which will become easier the closer to the end of season we get).

It may have bugs!
I tried it - gave us 5 wins and 3 draws - we ended up missing out to Wycombe by 1 point, and level on points with Exeter
1 Accrington Stanley 89
2 Luton Town 88
3 Wycombe Wanderers 83
4 Coventry City 82
5 Exeter City 82
6 Notts County 78
7 Mansfield Town 78
8 Swindon Town 78
9 Lincoln City 76
 

Irish Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
We have hit form at the right time.

But if you cast your mind back just a few weeks, we hadn't had an unbeaten run past 4 games all season, so to think we could suddenly conjure up 6 + obviously manifested doubts from posters, myself included.

There was also the loss of Davies and then Willis too. Who would have thought Hyam would come in and do so well!

I am delighted that I was wrong in thinking we couldn't go on a long unbeaten run (don't want to tempt fate here cos a defeat could possibly be right around the corner), but long may it continue.

An unbeaten run brings confidence and when you have the momentum that can be a really powerful thing.

I'm still not at all convinced we can bag 3rd, but a play off place seems all but certain now and the fact midfielders are now starting to score too has given us a tremendous boost.

We now look stronger with the addition of JCH and Kyel Reid back in the fold. Hopefully Baker can add to our options too.

Just can't see the DKE's back in now unless there are injuries. We now look stronger and more solid.

Keys for me are, no DKE's, the addition of JCH, Vincenti back in on the right and Bayliss in the middle.

We now need to go one game at a time and to try our utmost to win each one, with us keep ticking them off as we go.

The thought of winning 6 out of 8 makes for a huge task, but if we can keep ticking them off and concentrate only on one game at a time then you never know.

If we can draw at Notts County and Newport then the other games all look winnable.
I don’t think a play off place is certain. We are only 4 points ahead of eighth place and we have all seen City teams implode over the years. It would take a dramatic loss of form but this club has shown it is capable of that on lots of occasions. I still hope we can get to 3rd and I think we should at least make the playoffs, however I think it is far from certain.
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
Newport have fallen away. They only have pride to play for.

Notts County are also struggling of recent. Neither will be looking forward to playing us.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
I don’t think a play off place is certain. We are only 4 points ahead of eighth place and we have all seen City teams implode over the years. It would take a dramatic loss of form but this club has shown it is capable of that on lots of occasions. I still hope we can get to 3rd and I think we should at least make the playoffs, however I think it is far from certain.
Ah, we are talking at cross purposes.

I am talking about if we carry on as we are. 4 wins and a couple of draws should do it easily.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Newport have fallen away. They only have pride to play for.

Notts County are also struggling of recent. Neither will be looking forward to playing us.
Still both have brilliant home records.

Two very tough games to my mind.

And you say Notts County are struggling, but they are still in the top 10 for current form.
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
Still both have brilliant home records.

Two very tough games to my mind.

And you say Notts County are struggling, but they are still in the top 10 for current form.
Notts County 8 points from last 6 games. Not exactly flying is it?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
Colchester United 2-1 Coventry City

on the link, you can see how the table looked after the colchester defeat, before we went on the current run
Things can change quickly
We were level on points with Colchester at the time!
That was about the time I said that a top 3 finish could happen although it looked very unlikely. All we had to do was be the club that comes from nowhere that there seems to be each season.

Our problem is that we are used to being the club that is looking good but falls away.
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Notts County 8 points from last 6 games. Not exactly flying is it?
It isn't, but everyone was saying they were failing badly.

They are definitely wobbling, but still have only lost 2 home games all season.

I will gladly take a draw there.
 

Mild-Mannered Janitor

Kindest Bloke on CCFC / Maker of CCFC Dreams
Friday and Monday are massive games for us and really set the tone for the possibility of finishing 3rd but for me, at least securing the play off place that we need as a minimum, I think if we win both, then the pressure on the others around us will make a huge difference going into those last 6 games, Robins has been clever of recent, not focus on the run we are on but have the mental state of players focused on the fact its was a 10 game season, then 9 and now 8.

I cannot see us winning all 8 or even being unbeaten, Cheltenham are playing superbly now and could be a banana skin but Portsmouth did it last year, game by game and there is a belief now amongst the players.
First goal in ever game is crucial though, have said that all season.
 

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