The Run In (5 Viewers)

[Londonccfcfan]

Of the remaining 8 left, I only see Lincoln at home and Cheltenham away as being potentially very tricky, with Newport potentially a bit tricky.
I expect the others to be eminently winnable if we apply ourselves. If I was offered more than 4 points from the first 3 games mentioned, I would take it now.

Agree two toughest games cheltenham. Purely because last away game of season and pressure will be immense. Also their last home game and they in form.

Lincoln promotion rival will bring a nassive following.

These two are the biggest as it will be pretty much ladt chance by then.

The odd f up now and we have time to make amends.

But agree Cheltenham and lincoln. For reasons stated above.

 

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[Mucca Mad Boys]

What is going on here? I was supposedly deluded a few weeks ago for thinking we still had a chance of making the top 3.

As I said before there is normally at least one side that drops away and at least one side that comes under the radar to take an unexpected place. I still think that could be us. We have hit form at the right time. Our form is the second best of the division. The only club above us in the form table has a harder run in.

To get an idea on this could go take the average points from the last 6 games to the remaining games.

Luton last 6 games 7 points 74
Stanley 6 games 16 points 74
Wycombe 6 games 8 points 70
Notts County 6 games 8 points 66
Exeter 6 games 11 points 66
CITY 6 games 14 points 64
Mansfield 6 games 7 points 63
Lincoln 6 games 8 poiints 61
Swindon 6 games 6 points 60
Carlisle 6 games 12 points 57

But when you add to this the average points last 6 games and remaining games left it changes a bit


Stanley 98
CITY 83
Luton 82
Exeter 81
Wycombe 79
Notts County 75
Mansfield 72
Lincoln 72
Carlisle 71
Swindon 68

I know that you can't rely on present form of all clubs to continue. But it shows how our current form is against the others in numbers. And Swindon, who some seem to fear the most are on a bad run.

I am happier to support a club that is catching up with the other clubs over supporting a club that is being caught at the end of the season. We all know what it is like to finish badly. You sit there wondering where your next points are coming from.

I think it was fair to say that autos were ‘probably’ out of reach after losing 3 games in a row, and 11pts adrift from 3rd. I personally didn’t rule it out, but thought it unlikely. I think we’ll be close to 3rd, but Wycombe hold the advantage at the moment. 4th is my current feeling!

However, a massive turn around in form from then, and very fortunate run with the results of our rivals. We’re well and truly back in the race for 3rd place. We’ve got a game in hand on Notts and Wycombe, so we can overtake Notts and make up 3 on Wycombe with a win there. We need to better Exeter’s result one time out of the next 8 to overtake them because of our superior GD.

As much as I want Stanley to keep up their form, I don’t think they’ll maintain that 16pt form up - they’ve got a very hard run-in, I just hope they don’t lose any games - wins they get help us directly 6 of their last 9 games.

As for us, a win at Newport shows we mean business. This is the kind of game we’d draw/lose so a solid win shows real intent.

 

[Londonccfcfan]

What is going on here? I was supposedly deluded a few weeks ago for thinking we still had a chance of making the top 3.

As I said before there is normally at least one side that drops away and at least one side that comes under the radar to take an unexpected place. I still think that could be us. We have hit form at the right time. Our form is the second best of the division. The only club above us in the form table has a harder run in.

To get an idea on this could go take the average points from the last 6 games to the remaining games.

Luton last 6 games 7 points 74
Stanley 6 games 16 points 74
Wycombe 6 games 8 points 70
Notts County 6 games 8 points 66
Exeter 6 games 11 points 66
CITY 6 games 14 points 64
Mansfield 6 games 7 points 63
Lincoln 6 games 8 poiints 61
Swindon 6 games 6 points 60
Carlisle 6 games 12 points 57

But when you add to this the average points last 6 games and remaining games left it changes a bit


Stanley 98
CITY 83
Luton 82
Exeter 81
Wycombe 79
Notts County 75
Mansfield 72
Lincoln 72
Carlisle 71
Swindon 68

I know that you can't rely on present form of all clubs to continue. But it shows how our current form is against the others in numbers. And Swindon, who some seem to fear the most are on a bad run.

I am happier to support a club that is catching up with the other clubs over supporting a club that is being caught at the end of the season. We all know what it is like to finish badly. You sit there wondering where your next points are coming from.

I was suppodedly deluded too according to many.
Never ever stop believing in my city till its impossible.

We used to say if the titanic was painted sky blue it wouldnt have gone down.

But it did and so did we eventually.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I hope all this optimism you write about comes true but I've been a fan longer than some of you came out of their dad's balls and I'm reading this and I'm thinking......are they talking about Coventry City?

I think we'll get into the play offs and see what comes.

Hope they don't "choke it" at the last hurdle.

 

[Kingokings204]

It’s all on a knife edge isn’t it. If we lose our next two games over Easter we could be down to around 9-10th?

If we win our next two we could be a possible 3rd.

Honestly it could go all ways. I’m certainly not certain off a playoff place.

 

[tskezz]

I hope all this optimism you write about comes true but I've been a fan longer than some of you came out of their dad's balls and I'm reading this and I'm thinking......are they talking about Coventry City?

I think we'll get into the play offs and see what comes.

Hope they don't "choke it" at the last hurdle.

all i read in that post was "dads balls" and "choke it"

 

[Hugh Jarse]

all i read in that post was "dads balls" and "choke it"

Dirty boy.

 

[Nick]

Agree two toughest games cheltenham. Purely because last away game of season and pressure will be immense. Also their last home game and they in form.

Lincoln promotion rival will bring a nassive following.

These two are the biggest as it will be pretty much ladt chance by then.

The odd f up now and we have time to make amends.

But agree Cheltenham and lincoln. For reasons stated above.

I didn't think Cheltenham were that bad when we played them at home, they always looked to try and play decent football and Eisa is dangerous.

I think it was Pell was giving Doyle the rough treatment too, think he managed to put a nasty tackle in and whack him in the head off the ball.

 

[covcity4life]

all i read in that post was "dads balls" and "choke it"

childhood memories?

 

[Londonccfcfan]

childhood memories?

Good memories

 

[no_loyalty]

This going to be interesting, its in our hands keep winning with a few results going our way a draw between wycombe and notts be good for us.

Irish, can you post the link for this chart please, I want to print it A0 size and put it on the wall next to my desk, where all the Blues and Villa fans can see it

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

As I said earlier on, this is probably going to go down to the last day of the season.

It would be really nice if we could have our fate in our hands by that point, but who knows. It is really hard to predict, but I do think Wycombe are our biggest competition at the moment. Remember though, and this is a warning. we are CCFC and even throwing away a playoff place at this point is not beyond our capabilities.

I'm excited and I do think we could hit 3rd, but I'll accept it is hard to be genuinely realistic at the moment. We have to just keep going one game at a time, and I agree with Robins mental tactics as MMJ said above. 10 games, then 9, then 8...

 

[harvey098]

I have to admit a few weeks ago as I stood there in Mansfield, 1-0 down, Willis sent off and having lost the previous 4 in a row, I thought that was the season done. That second half performance at Mansfield was so important mentally.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I keep telling myself not to think about it 'till the Yeovil game is over. Things will be a lot clearer 5 o'clock on Monday. You never know. Wycombe could lose both and we could be sitting pretty. Alternatively we lose both and are 10th.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

I just did the predictor and came out with the below:



Amazingly that has us joint on points and GD with Wycombe! They are the threat and I will be supporting whoever plays against them. My predictions have Notts County dropping out of the top 7 altogether, but I do doubt that bit somehow...

 

[mark_ccfc]

More stats....
Current Standings

League Two 2017/18
# Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts Last 6
1 Luton Town 39 21 11 7 81 40 41 74 DDLDDW
2 Accrington Stanley 37 23 5 9 64 40 24 74 WDWWWW
3 Wycombe Wanderers 39 20 10 9 73 54 19 70 LLDWWD
4 Notts County 39 18 12 9 61 42 19 66 LWDWDL
5 Exeter City 38 20 6 12 50 41 9 66 WDDLWW
6 Coventry City 38 19 7 12 47 31 16 64 DWWDWW
7 Mansfield Town 38 16 15 7 56 40 16 63 WDDDDL
8 Lincoln City 38 16 13 9 53 40 13 61 LLDWWL
9 Swindon Town 38 19 3 16 59 58 1 60 LWLLWL
10 Carlisle United 39 15 12 12 56 49 7 57 WWWDDD

8 games to go 24 points available:-

Frid 30th March Newport County vs Coventry City
Monday 2nd April Coventry City vs Yeovil Town
Saturday 7th April Notts County vs Coventry City
Saturday 14th April Crawley Town vs Coventry City
Friday 20th April Coventry City vs Stevenage
Tuesday 24th April Coventry City vs Lincoln City
Saturday 28th April Cheltenham Tn vs Coventry City
Saturday 5th May Coventry City vs Morecambe

Top of the league 2 table last 5 seasons

2016-2017
1. Portsmouth 46 26 9 11 79:40 87
2. Plymouth 46 26 9 11 71:46 87
3. Doncaster 46 25 10 11 85:55 85
4. Luton 46 20 17 9 70:43 77
5. Exeter 46 21 8 17 75:56 71
6. Carlisle 46 18 17 11 69:68 71
7. Blackpool 46 18 16 12 69:46 70

2015-2016
1. Northampton 46 29 12 5 82:46 99
2. Oxford Utd 46 24 14 8 84:41 86
3. Bristol 46 26 7 13 77:46 85
4. Accrington 46 24 13 9 74:48 85
5. Plymouth 46 24 9 13 72:46 81
6. Portsmouth 46 21 15 10 75:44 78
7. AFC Wimb 46 21 12 13 64:50 75

2014-2015
1. Burton A 46 28 10 8 69 39 94
2 Shrewsbury 46 27 8 11 67 31 89
3 Bury 46 26 7 13 60 40 85
4 Wycombe W 46 23 15 8 67 45 84
5 Southend U 46 24 12 10 54 38 84
6 Stevenage 46 20 12 14 62 54 72
7 Plymouth A 46 20 11 15 55 37 71

#2013-2014
1 Chesterf'd 46 23 15 8 71 40 84
2 Scunth'pe U 46 20 21 5 68 44 81
3 Rochdale 46 24 9 13 69 48 81
4 Fleetwood T 46 22 10 14 66 52 76
5 Southend U 46 19 15 12 56 39 72
6 Burton A 46 19 15 12 47 42 72
7 York City 46 18 17 11 52 41 71

2012/13
1 Gillingham 46 23 14 9 66 39 83
2 Rotherham U 46 24 7 15 74 59 79
3 Port Vale 46 21 15 10 87 52 78
4 Burton A 46 22 10 14 71 65 76
5 Chelt'ham T 46 20 15 11 58 51 75
6 North'n T 46 21 10 15 64 55 73
7 Bradford C 46 18 15 13 63 52 69

 

[IrishSkyBlue]

For me next 3 games are cup finals we win those and were def getting playoffs anything after that is a bonus if we push wycombe for 3rd and get autos.

 

[Grendel]

I actually want Notts county to beat Wycombe Friday .
But that’s in the hope that we win at Newport and our game in hand will take us above county and level with Wycombe

Correct analysis.

 

[Paxman II]

Squeaky bum time! There will be a lot of twist and turns between now and the end of season involving all the promotion hopefuls as the pressure gets to the teams.
I do think we have hit some confidence at the right time without being carried away and can almost smell promotion. I really don't think our squad is going to capitulate this time and fade away.
The squad is too strong and coherent. Play offs will come, but if we post a couple more wins in the next two the pressure will be on the others big time.
If we don't do that then playoffs are more likely. With our vast support if we are in the playoffs I think we would win them.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I just did the predictor and came out with the below:

View attachment 9345

Amazingly that has us joint on points and GD with Wycombe! They are the threat and I will be supporting whoever plays against them. My predictions have Notts County dropping out of the top 7 altogether, but I do doubt that bit somehow...

I think a lot of people judge Mansfield as if Evans hasn’t left them. In Flitcroft’s 5 games thus far, W0 D4 L1 - I can’t see Mansfield accruing 82 points - that’s 19 points from their next 8 games, not very plausible. They also have to play Accrington and Luton so that could be 6pts dropped already.

I agree, however, that Notts County are arguably in the weakest position in the top 7. They’ve got 3 tough fixtures coming up and play Luton on the last day. I think they will end up 6th or 7th. I think Lincoln have a good shot at playoffs as I think both Mansfield and Swindon will drop off.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I think a lot of people judge Mansfield as if Evans hasn’t left them. In Flitcroft’s 5 games thus far, W0 D4 L1 - I can’t see Mansfield accruing 82 points - that’s 19 points from their next 8 games, not very plausible. They also have to play Accrington and Luton so that could be 6pts dropped already.

I agree, however, that Notts County are arguably in the weakest position in the top 7. They’ve got 3 tough fixtures coming up and play Luton on the last day. I think they will end up 6th or 7th. I think Lincoln have a good shot at playoffs as I think both Mansfield and Swindon will drop off.

An advantage we have above Wycombe, Notts County and Swindon, is that we have a manager with experience in getting promoted.

Robins has never been promoted as a manager

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Robins has never been promoted as a manager

Yet.

In all seriousness, I thought he got Rotherham promoted, but clearly I’m wrong. I shall amend my mistake.

 

[Otis]

Correct analysis.

You do realise it is just an opinion and because of that it doesn't make it right, don't you?

 

[Londonccfcfan]

I just did the predictor and came out with the below:

View attachment 9345

Amazingly that has us joint on points and GD with Wycombe! They are the threat and I will be supporting whoever plays against them. My predictions have Notts County dropping out of the top 7 altogether, but I do doubt that bit somehow...

The wins column doesn't add up

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

The wins column doesn't add up

Tell that to the guy that made the thing...

 

[skybluesam66]

interesting that the team that has finished 4th in the last 5 seasons

1 of them now in the championship
1 in league 1
the other 3 occupying the top 3 places in league 2

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

I'm excited and I do think we could hit 3rd, but I'll accept it is hard to be genuinely realistic at the moment. We have to just keep going one game at a time, and I agree with Robins mental tactics as MMJ said above. 10 games, then 9, then 8...[/QUOTE]

........but what comes after that ?

 

[Grendel]

You do realise it is just an opinion and because of that it doesn't make it right, don't you?

Well it’s I guess like you saying the worlds flat and he says it’s round.

 

[Otis]

Well it’s I guess like you saying the worlds flat and he says it’s round.

No it's not at all.

One is fact, the other is fiction.

On the football thing it is just two different matters of opinion. Neither can say their way is right, but if you are saying Notts County would not be reinvigorated and feel buoyant after beating Wycombe, who have the best away record in the entire league, then I think you are very much mistaken.

 

[wingy]

No it's not at all.

One is fact, the other is fiction.

On the football thing it is just two different matters of opinion. Neither can say their way is right, but if you are saying Notts County would not be reinvigorated and feel buoyant after beating Wycombe, who have the best away record in the entire league, then I think you are very much mistaken.

That may well be the case but leaves Wycombe with One extra point that we will have to overcome .
It's all hypothetical though .

 

[Gibbo]

Doesn't current form depend a lot on the rub of the fixture list - when the sample is only 4-6 games. I think the recent form table suffers from this. Crewe were quite high, but do not seem that good (Bowery apart). Could just have been their fixtures. Accrington would be lucky to maintain their current form to the end.

 

[Otis]

That may well be the case but leaves Wycombe with One extra point that we will have to overcome .
It's all hypothetical though .

Agree.

I just think it's an entirely wise theory to want all our rivals to drop points wherever possible and a draw on Friday then results in 2 rivals dropping 2 points each.

And as I said before, that then also results in both those rivals having a poor return from their past 2 matches of just 1 point and just 2 points respectively.

I think that is an entirely reasonable and rational stance to take and does make sense.

 

[smileycov]

It does Otis but my feeling on it, is Wycombe are less likely than others to drop points. Therefore, if they lose we can catch them with our game in hand so it is in our hands. Exactly where we need to be. If they draw we require them dropping points elsewhere.

 

[Otis]

It does Otis but my feeling on it, is Wycombe are less likely than others to drop points. Therefore, if they lose we can catch them with our game in hand so it is in our hands. Exactly where we need to be. If they draw we require them dropping points elsewhere.

I get all that, smiley.

But it is amazing what one single positive result can do for a team.

Put it this way, if we were Notts County and on a bit of a wobble, had just lost to the team second from bottom and then played the best away team in the whole division (Wycombe) and then beat them we would be cock a hoop wouldn't we? Be on cloud 9 and have real belief again.

After beating Notts County I am sure Chesterfield now feel reinvigorated. One big result and the belief and confidence can come back.

And let's say Notts County do beat Wycombe and then manage a draw on Monday against Accrington, we would surely be facing them at the worst time.

We want to go into that Notts County game with them still feeling sorry for themselves, still on a wobble, still sliding down the table.

I would say that gives us the very best chance of beating them and like I keep saying, they have only lost 2 games at home all season long.

And as I also keep saying, there are 7 games for Wycombe to drop points. They dropped 2 last week at home against Port Vale, so I don't think it is right to think they just aren't going to drop any more points in all their remaining fixtures. They dropped 2 last weekend and if they draw tomorrow that's another 2 right there. 2 games 4 points dropped.

Don't see how we can't be happy with that at all.

Why if they were to drop 4 points in just 2 games would we feel that is not helping us enough?

 

[stupot07]

This going to be interesting, its in our hands keep winning with a few results going our way a draw between wycombe and notts be good for us.

I'm feeling positive, but aren't you contradicting yourself? Its in our hands, but only if others drop points? Whilst it is in our hands if we win all 8 remaining games we're in with a real shout, but that's unrealistic, so really all we can do is try to keep winning and hope that others falter. So its not in our hands.

3 points are a must tomorrow #pusb



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