Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
It's not on the table...yet. If they cede those areas, Putin will come back in for more later on.That’s not really on the table though is it? They will probably cede the Donbas and Luhansk. Unless NATO directly intervenes, which it won’t, Ukraine doesn’t look likely to eject the Russian occupation.
The only bet Ukraine has is if the Russian Federation collapses in a similar fashion to how the USSR did. Which, it may happen as no one expected the speed of which the USSR collapsed, but is it likely? Probably not. In any case, how long could Ukraine last without military aid? Again, probably not very long.
These are pragmatic considerations that were deferred by the last US administration. There was a moment when Russia probably could’ve been defeated and the difficult decisions to escalate delivery of high-tech weaponry as well as allowing the use of said weapons for offensive purposes were delayed right until the end of the presidency.
Besides, we don’t know any details about the peace talks so it’s all conjecture atm.
The collapse of the USSR had a series of events that ultimately led to it, one of which was Chernobyl. People began questioning and that enabled separatists to get more support.
Maybe that could happen with Russia not having succeeded in their objectives in Ukraine and many young men being forced to fight and die. Even with Putin's control over what Russians see and hear they could not help but question why so many are being called up and are dying if it is going smoothly, especially as he said they would be welcomed to get rid of nazi oppressors.
But the major difference is the difference in the leader's personality. Putin is a callous, sadistic, psychopath and he would crack down on any dissent brutally. If anything of that nature were to happen it would have to be a big, quick and co-ordinated uprising and even if enough people could be convinced I just can't see it happening before he sends in the troops and secret services to quash it. In reality it would probably need top military people to be in on it.
The only other possibility is a major catastrophe like Chernobyl but again with the control of the media it would undoubtedly be spun as the work of Ukraine and the west.