USSR invades Ukraine. (46 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I was talking with someone from Moldova last night who was explaining the situation there and why it’s worrying personally for him and Moldova. I didn’t realise that Russia has troops in Moldova along its border with Ukraine and has done for years, uninvited. There’s a river that run through Moldova along that edge of its border albeit a good few miles back and is a bit of a natural border between the Romanian speaking Moldovans and the Russian speaking Moldovans (although most Moldovans speak both languages well). His worry is that if Ukraine falls Moldova will be Putins next target and best case scenario is that Romanian speaking will become part of Romania, Putin takes the rest. However Romania is in NATO so this could get more complicated still.

Transnistria basically is a self governing slice of Moldova. Though yes if Putin took Ukraine then he would be bordering that and emboldened by only being hit with economic sanctions what’s to stop him?

 

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[Sick Boy]

Thankfully the Ukrainians haven't got such a defeatist attitude.

It’s the reality of the situation. You’re naive if you think Putin won’t have already planned for the current and upcoming sanctions.

 

[tisza]

The problem with the nuke deterrent is it relies on rational actors on all sides. Putin clearly isn’t one and from what he says it seems like he really would be fine to end the world if someone intervenes in his mission for empire.

EU and others can't even agree on levels of sanctions so a unified voice on use of nuclear weapons would be difficult.
One of Putin's "strengths" in this current situation is that he has one voice and is the ultimate decision-maker - his opposition has so many voices, opinions and decision-makers that consensus and decision-making is always going to be difficult. But being the only voice is also a weakness in this type of situation if you can't make rational decisions.
It's like playing a game when only one side follows the rules.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It’s the reality of the situation. You’re naive if you think Putin won’t have already planned for the current and upcoming sanctions.

The best hope at this point is an internal coup

 

[Sick Boy]

The best hope at this point is an internal coup

Sadly you’re right.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

EU and others can't even agree on levels of sanctions so a unified voice on use of nuclear weapons would be difficult.
One of Putin's "strengths" in this current situation is that he has one voice and is the ultimate decision-maker - his opposition has so many voices, opinions and decision-makers that consensus and decision-making is always going to be difficult. But being the only voice is also a weakness in this type of situation if you can't make rational decisions.
It's like playing a game when only one side follows the rules.

He is using the nuclear deterrent as a sword over the head of anyone daring to get in the way of his imperial conquest. If it works here he can invade where he wants surely?

 

[clint van damme]

The best hope at this point is an internal coup

or the Ukrainians turn it into another Afghanistan.

One may facilitate the other.

 

[Grendel]

Has nato every actually been tested?

Pretty sure some countries would say see ya later pal, your on your own now if a nato ally was attacked because they wouldn't want to escalate the situation.

Not really I suppose technically the Falkland’s but we never activated the clause

of course nato took a decision to act in the former Yugoslavia to prevent escalation

 

[skybluetony176]

Transnistria basically is a self governing slice of Moldova. Though yes if Putin took Ukraine then he would be bordering that and emboldened by only being hit with economic sanctions what’s to stop him?

Absolutely nothing. The world is currently relying on the outcome of the Ukraine crisis to stop expansion of (I know the thread title is supposed to be tongue in cheek but…) the USSR.

 

[tisza]

It makes you wonder if the real ‘end-game’ here is a realignment of superpowers where China and Russia are #1 and #2 and the USA is #3

China going be to number 1 as their economy going to dominate. much like Russia they have designs of regional dominancy just theirs is Asia and Russia's is Europe.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

or the Ukrainians turn it into another Afghanistan.

He will throw more and more in to this. Afghanistan’s geography has made it very difficult to conquer throughout history. If he keeps dogpiling Ukraine from 3 sides it can’t hold on indefinitely without help.

 

[Grendel]

They were indeed both very poor choices. Let's face it, Corbyn was never going to get in was he.

There's no doubt that Putin must see both Biden and Johnson as weak.

Its nothing to do with Johnson and Biden. He knows the rest of Europe in reality can do nothing and the biggest European powerhouses especially Germany are utterly reliant on them

The uk is far less relaxant abd they are economically irrelevant to the US

 

[Liquid Gold]

If the reported casualty figures are true then they are staggering. Russia have lost 3,500 troops in 2 days. America only lost 4k in total in all the time they were in Iraq and that was considered a bloodbath. I know Putin, and Russian leaders in general, care little for human life, but that has got to sting.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

Theres a groupfbof 14 on an islan

It goes back to 2014 and the response to what happened. It was business as usual across the west; they even hosted the World Cup a few years later.

this is the crux of the problem. It was the thin end of the wedge and needed intervention there and then. Instead the west has turned a blind eye and let the kremlin insulate themselves somewhat by building up reserves of gold.

 

[tisza]

He is using the nuclear deterrent as a sword over the head of anyone daring to get in the way of his imperial conquest. If it works here he can invade where he wants surely?

That's the key problem here.
If he gets away with Ukraine then nowhere is safe. If he gets a demilitarized Ukraine with a govt of his choosing then pulls his forces out then he's won. Then the thinking has to be why can't I do the same in other countries?
He could start thinking about the likes of Moldova, Estonia & Latvia. Russia can literally over-run Estonia in a day. Is the NATO going to get into a nuclear war over Estonia - a country with a population of just over a million people? Are they going to risk millions of lives for such a small country? Some will say yes but there will be those (maybe in NATO or EU who are geographically or politically far from Estonia) who say hang on is it worth paying the price. NATO Treaty has never been tested.

It also sets a precedent for other states with nuclear weapons. Would China follow through on its rhetoric on Taiwan? Could an increasingly militant India look at some of the territories it has ownership claims on?

UN again shown be an exercise in futility. India abstains because it buys so many weapons from Russia, UAE abstains because it is frightened Russia be significantly increase its supply of weapons etc to Iran.

 

[tisza]

Absolutely nothing. The world is currently relying on the outcome of the Ukraine crisis to stop expansion of (I know the thread title is supposed to be tongue in cheek but…) the USSR.

Not sure if the pictures have been seen in UK but here there are pictures of Russian tanks flying the old USSR flag on them. Really wound up people in this area.

 

[Liquid Gold]

 

[Grendel]

Not sure if the pictures have been seen in UK but here there are pictures of Russian tanks flying the old USSR flag on them. Really wound up people in this area.

Yes it’s been shown here. It’s a significant gesture

 

[skybluetony176]

Not sure if the pictures have been seen in UK but here there are pictures of Russian tanks flying the old USSR flag on them. Really wound up people in this area.

Saw it on C4 news last night. Not sure if other networks covered that specific point or not.

 

[SBT]

The problem with the nuke deterrent is it relies on rational actors on all sides. Putin clearly isn’t one and from what he says it seems like he really would be fine to end the world if someone intervenes in his mission for empire.

What is this based on? I fully accept that Putin isn’t acting rationally, but it’s a big leap to say he’s now gone suicidal.

His behaviour around Covid alone for the past few years shows a paranoid, self-preservationist streak from a man with a deep insecurity about his own personal well-being. As someone whose tactics and patriotism has been drilled into him from the KGB days, I also seriously doubt that he wants to throw out decades of Russian nuclear strategy and sign his country’s death warrant over Ukraine either.

 

[skybluegod]

That's the key problem here.
If he gets away with Ukraine then nowhere is safe. If he gets a demilitarized Ukraine with a govt of his choosing then pulls his forces out then he's won. Then the thinking has to be why can't I do the same in other countries?
He could start thinking about the likes of Moldova, Estonia & Latvia. Russia can literally over-run Estonia in a day. Is the NATO going to get into a nuclear war over Estonia - a country with a population of just over a million people? Are they going to risk millions of lives for such a small country? Some will say yes but there will be those (maybe in NATO or EU who are geographically or politically far from Estonia) who say hang on is it worth paying the price. NATO Treaty has never been tested.

It also sets a precedent for other states with nuclear weapons. Would China follow through on its rhetoric on Taiwan? Could an increasingly militant India look at some of the territories it has ownership claims on?

UN again shown be an exercise in futility. India abstains because it buys so many weapons from Russia, UAE abstains because it is frightened Russia be significantly increase its supply of weapons etc to Iran.

Why there is an relevance to the UN I don't know. A body formed by the winners of a war 80 years ago with nations that are so dramatically opposed that they can just veto each other as seen. Completely and utterly irrelevant in the modern day in its current guise.

 

[tisza]

He will throw more and more in to this. Afghanistan’s geography has made it very difficult to conquer throughout history. If he keeps dogpiling Ukraine from 3 sides it can’t hold on indefinitely without help.

One of the reasons for his haste is that soon the approach from BelaRus is going to become more problematic. It's one massive marsh that will start to defreeze soon. Going to make supplying and moving troops more complicated. Comparatively speaking there aren't many roads in Ukraine. Lots of really long highways with offshoots. Means concentrating traffic in condensed areas which makes them more vulnerable.

 

[skybluetony176]

If the reported casualty figures are true then they are staggering. Russia have lost 3,500 troops in 2 days. America only lost 4k in total in all the time they were in Iraq and that was considered a bloodbath. I know Putin, and Russian leaders in general, care little for human life, but that has got to sting.

It’s tragic in reality. Like others have pointed out a large number of those will be conscripted and all of them will be someone’s son, brother, father etc. If the numbers are true I doubt that they’re being reported in Russia so it could take a while for the realisation of that loss to resonate with the Russian public anytime soon. Which is a shame as if it would clearly garner support for anti war protests in Russia, which is the most obvious reason why it wouldn’t be covered.

 

[tisza]

It’s tragic in reality. Like others have pointed out a large number of those will be conscripted and all of them will be someone’s son, brother, father etc. If the numbers are true I doubt that they’re being reported in Russia so it could take a while for the realisation of that loss to resonate with the Russian public anytime soon. Which is a shame as if it would clearly garner support for anti war protests in Russia, which is the most obvious reason why it wouldn’t be covered.

Another nearly 2000 arrests in St Petersburg last night. Is it really the only city with protestors??

 

[CCFCSteve]

It’s tragic in reality. Like others have pointed out a large number of those will be conscripted and all of them will be someone’s son, brother, father etc. If the numbers are true I doubt that they’re being reported in Russia so it could take a while for the realisation of that loss to resonate with the Russian public anytime soon. Which is a shame as if it would clearly garner support for anti war protests in Russia, which is the most obvious reason why it wouldn’t be covered.

Agree, very, very sad, but unfortunately I think it’s one of the only ways this ends well from Ukraine/the wests perspective ie Ukraine holding off and killing a lot of Russians. I feel awful saying that for the reasons you’ve highlighted, a lot are young kids FFS and have been unnecessarily sent to their deaths by an imperialist madman

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

What is this based on? I fully accept that Putin isn’t acting rationally, but it’s a big leap to say he’s now gone suicidal.

His behaviour around Covid alone for the past few years shows a paranoid, self-preservationist streak from a man with a deep insecurity about his own personal well-being. As someone whose tactics and patriotism has been drilled into him from the KGB days, I also seriously doubt that he wants to throw out decades of Russian nuclear strategy and sign his country’s death warrant over Ukraine either.

‘If I can’t have it nobody can’ is my thinking

 

[CCFCSteve]

Another nearly 2000 arrests in St Petersburg last night. Is it really the only city with protestors??

I heard the first night protests happened in other cities. It would be great if they could converge on one city to make a massive statement…I’m saying that from the comfort of my own home though

 

[Houchens Head]

Be nice to see some sort of support for Ukraine at the match today. Sky News said that the FA have given clubs the go ahead if they so wish.

 

[Nick]

Be nice to see some sort of support for Ukraine at the match today. Sky News said that the FA have given clubs the go ahead if they so wish.

What like? Not sure a round of applause is going to do much against fighter jets.

 

[skybluetony176]

Poland refusing to play their WCC against Russia, calling on Sweden and Czech Republic to basically do the same.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Poland refusing to play their WCC against Russia, calling on Sweden and Czech Republic to basically do the same.

Shouldn't have to. Russia should be suspended from competing.

 

[clint van damme]

What like? Not sure a round of applause is going to do much against fighter jets.

Youre going to freak when you find out minutes silences don't bring people back to life!

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

What is this based on? I fully accept that Putin isn’t acting rationally, but it’s a big leap to say he’s now gone suicidal.

His behaviour around Covid alone for the past few years shows a paranoid, self-preservationist streak from a man with a deep insecurity about his own personal well-being. As someone whose tactics and patriotism has been drilled into him from the KGB days, I also seriously doubt that he wants to throw out decades of Russian nuclear strategy and sign his country’s death warrant over Ukraine either.

It's not about him being suicidal. He's a megalomaniac fantasist who believes he will win. When that situation changes and he finally realises he can't, he won't care about the destruction to the planet or other people. If anything his fury at the world for not letting him do what he wants would make it even more likely for him to press the button. As has been said "If I can't have it no-one can"

Basically he's like Hitler but with a huge stock of weapons that could destroy life on this planet before he disappears into his bunker to shoot himself.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

EU and others can't even agree on levels of sanctions so a unified voice on use of nuclear weapons would be difficult.
One of Putin's "strengths" in this current situation is that he has one voice and is the ultimate decision-maker - his opposition has so many voices, opinions and decision-makers that consensus and decision-making is always going to be difficult. But being the only voice is also a weakness in this type of situation if you can't make rational decisions.
It's like playing a game when only one side follows the rules.

Tends to be that early on dictatorial regimes make good headway because of the single mindedness of the person in charge, but get bogged down by resistance. Then when what that dictator is promising doesn't materialise the armed forces and people following that person get disillusioned and demoralised. Dictator gets desperate and starts making rash decisions. If you're the only person making decisions and either followers are too scared to disagree or they refuse to listen, eventually they make a mistake that leads to their downfall.

 

[skybluetony176]

BBC just had a guy on called Tara’s Kusio who is apparently someone Russian Ukraine expert in The Hague talking about how Putin is in danger of being overthrown in much the same way as Khrushchev. He was siting similarities such as erratic behaviour, detachment from reality etc. Pointing specifically to his decision to invade Ukraine. He believes that Putin and his closest inner circle just don’t understand Ukraine for starters, apparently they truly believed that the Ukrainian people would wave them in throwing flowers at the soldiers feet seeing them as liberators not attackers.