Gyokeres to Everton- Two in exchange? (1 Viewer)

[Esoterica]

Given our low budget and that we haven't sold a star recently, what markets should we be shopping in for calculated risks?

Championship level and in their prime - very expensive on our budget e.g. Palmer: 15k-20k per week

Championship level and slightly past their peak - relatively expensive on our budget with the risk of further/rapid decline e.g. Waghorn: 12k-15k per week

Young players with potential who haven't made it in the PL - salaries won't be so high but likely cost a significant development fee plus a sell-on % e.g. Sheaf, Gyokeres: Transfer fee + sell on % + 9k-10k per week and will then want improved terms if they have a good season.

Top young players from L1 and L2 who have had a good season - salary may not be high but will require a transfer fee due to 'potential' and a risk that they will not develop to the standard at this level. We've not really dipped into this market e.g Twine, McNulty: Transfer fee + sell on % + 6k-8k per week?

Unknowns with the right core stats that we feel we can develop into Championship players - cheap by the division average wage but with low chance of success e.g. Hilsner, DaCosta: 4kish per week?

Kids to stick in the U23s and hope they develop - super cheap but a very competitive market meaning we can only compete for very raw talent e.g. Cashman, Tavares, Lusala: 500 - 2k per week

Broad categories and summaries, I know, with wages I plucked out of thin air but have i missed any obvious category? I'm not sure, given the markets we have been operating in, how we reduce risk and increase success rate. It's almost always about the money you have to spend.

 

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[Offhegoes]

Peter Vincenti
Tony Andreu
Carl Baker
Josh Barrett
Jordan Maguire-Drew
Reise Allassani
Junior Brown
Abu Ogogo
Charlie Wakefield
David Meyler
Wesley Jobello
Gervane Kastaneer
Josh Pask
Julien Dacosta
Marcel Hilßner
Tyler Walker
Josh Reid
Martyn Waghorn
Simon Moore
Bright Enobakhare
Todd Kane

That really is a shocking list of players for the most part. I wouldn't agree with Moore, Kane, Pask & Walker though. They have all contributed at some point, and either are not good enough now for a team chasing promotion (Walker, Moore & Pask) or Robins fell out with them (Kane)
Ogogo and Brown came with great reputations as I recall. Both barely played, and Robins later said they didn't fit the way we wanted to play (especially Ogogo), which surely should of been worked out before being signed.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Being rational about it, we should sell Vik this window. Will be a tough six months to the summer but money in the bank for a decent rebuild then and can hit the ground running identifying targets rather than waiting for a deal to go through.

I disagree on the basis that he is just too important for us at this moment. If multiple clubs are interested we can hold on until the summer.

 

[shmmeee]

I disagree on the basis that he is just too important for us at this moment. If multiple clubs are interested we can hold on until the summer.

Important for what? His value will be more now than in the summer cos of desperation and contract length. We won’t go down if we sell him and we likely won’t go up without significant investment that we can’t do until the summer clearout.

 

[Cata]

The rule was changed in 2020 and it’s 3 clubs now.

not quite, you can sign for three but only play for 2. Here is the wording:
Currently, under the FIFA Transfer Regulations, a football player is only allowed to be registered with a maximum of three clubs in one season. This also applies regardless of what country that player has plied his trade in, whether that is in Europe, Africa or South America.

During this period, the player is only eligible to play official matches for two clubs. However, a player may be eligible to play in official matches for a third club during the relevant season if he has moved between two clubs belonging to associations with overlapping seasons (ie, start of the season in summer/autumn as opposed to winter/spring). This is only allowed if he has fully complied with his contractual obligations towards his previous clubs.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

How do you calculate those risks well though when you don't have the budget to sign ready made players?

There is always going to be risk, but you have to mitigate it. I would hope a scouting department would cover such things as current playing ability, perceived potential, attributes, stats, so by the point we sign someone, we have a pretty good idea if they are going to be good enough or not. With the much younger players, it can be considerably more forgiven though, as their playing career may have been historically very short, and you are taking that gamble on them blooming into something outstanding.

The thing is, it isn't just the young players we have signed which have looked scattergun at times. We have been signing many 'established professionals' that just simply aren't good enough. Who is looking at Bright and thinking that's a good idea? Who looks at the trajectory of Waghorn and comes to the conclusion he should be one of our highest paid players? Also Palmer, given his history, whack him on a three year deal... Hillsner was already 25 when he joined. Da Costa only a year younger. There are so many questions I'm afraid, and it looks like just because we have made a few good signings, some people don't want to ask them. Considering how small our squad is, we have far too many players on that list of whom are not good enough, and are using up valuable wages.

 

[rexo87]

Important for what? His value will be more now than in the summer cos of desperation and contract length. We won’t go down if we sell him and we likely won’t go up without significant investment that we can’t do until the summer clearout.

I can't see us getting the 4/5 wins to stay up without him

Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk

 

[jordan210]

Dont Everton have a few strikers out due to injuries. So can see them offering something for Vik this window.

Problem with any player swap from a prem club is they would likely be on stupid money. I dread to think how much Ali is being paid out on loan

 

[shmmeee]

I can't see us getting the 4/5 wins to stay up without him

Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk

Maybe not now. But if you add in the three Robins is after this window and a loan striker why not?

 

[Northeast sky blue]

I see Forest are the latest to be rumoured as interested

 

[Hertsccfc]

I don’t think Callum O hare will advise him that

Maybe but I still feel he would be much better to wait until the summer. I think he knows he us not quite ready but develop a few areas and a further good half season here he might well be. A disastrous move to Everton including relegation would be a mistake when a move to a more stable Premier club un the summer is likely.

 

[Frostie]

One of the players offered, Broadhead is off to Ipswich.

Yep, of the 2 players recalled & linked it was well known that Simms was to play & Broadhead to sell. It's almost like the "journalists" that write these stories churn out any old shite just for clicks.

 

[SBAndy]

Do we really care if he goes to Everton and fails to live up to expectations? If they pay us the money we’re after, do the deal.

I know people are generally terrified of change but we *need* to sell someone to flesh out the rest of the squad. Ludicrous to try and suggest otherwise.

 

[shmmeee]

Peter Vincenti
Tony Andreu
Carl Baker
Josh Barrett
Jordan Maguire-Drew
Reise Allassani
Junior Brown
Abu Ogogo
Charlie Wakefield
David Meyler
Wesley Jobello
Gervane Kastaneer
Josh Pask
Julien Dacosta
Marcel Hilßner
Tyler Walker
Josh Reid
Martyn Waghorn
Simon Moore
Bright Enobakhare
Todd Kane

Some of these are a bit of a stretch. Including our top scorer first season up, Baker who was on a short term deal, kids like Allassani, Reid and Wakefield. Several players who played a significant number of first team games like Moore and Kane. The total cost of that entire list is probably less than £2m. The vast majority were frees or nominal amounts of low wages. Hardly what I’d call “shocking”.

 

[Hertsccfc]

Some of these are a bit of a stretch. Including our top scorer first season up, Baker who was on a short term deal, kids like Allassani, Reid and Wakefield. Several players who played a significant number of first team games like Moore and Kane. The total cost of that entire list is probably less than £2m. The vast majority were frees or nominal amounts of low wages. Hardly what I’d call “shocking”.

Some were short term loans like Barrett, Maguire-Drew and Meyler and we couldn't have predicted ACLs to Allassani and Jobello.

Andrew, Brown and Ogogo seemed very sensible buys at the time. Many others were relatively cheap punts.

 

[Esoterica]

There is always going to be risk, but you have to mitigate it. I would hope a scouting department would cover such things as current playing ability, perceived potential, attributes, stats, so by the point we sign someone, we have a pretty good idea if they are going to be good enough or not. With the much younger players, it can be considerably more forgiven though, as their playing career may have been historically very short, and you are taking that gamble on them blooming into something outstanding.

The thing is, it isn't just the young players we have signed which have looked scattergun at times. We have been signing many 'established professionals' that just simply aren't good enough. Who is looking at Bright and thinking that's a good idea? Who looks at the trajectory of Waghorn and comes to the conclusion he should be one of our highest paid players? Also Palmer, given his history, whack him on a three year deal... Hillsner was already 25 when he joined. Da Costa only a year younger. There are so many questions I'm afraid, and it looks like just because we have made a few good signings, some people don't want to ask them. Considering how small our squad is, we have far too many players on that list of whom are not good enough, and are using up valuable wages.

I don't think you can have a pretty good idea whether someone is going to be good enough until they've actually proven themselves at this or an equivalent level, unless they are absolutely head and shoulders above their peers like Maddison and Wilson were, and as a result they went for a lot of money.

And that's what it all comes down to. It's having money that ultimately lowers the risk (and even then it still goes wrong for even the biggest teams). Established players cost top dollar. The less money you have, the bigger the odds you have to gamble on.

Take a player from abroad and they might not adapt to the pace of the game or even just simply living abroad. Take younger players from the leagues below and however good their stats might be, they have not played at this level, where it's faster and more physical e.g. Bayliss, McNulty. Some players develop from coaching, some from playing matches, some from the confidence of having a coach's arm around them telling them how good they are. Some develop at 18, some later, some don't develop at all.

Hilsner and Dacosta between them won't be on half the salary of an established championship player. After all his issues I would be surprised if Bright was on more than 3k. We didn't have any money when we signed Bright but we needed another attacking midfielder so we gambled on his career after leaving us being the kick up the arse he needs, given his high potential ceiling. It wasn't. But i bet we weren't paying him much and either way it didn't last long. Plus there's absolutely no way we re-signed Bright without MR approving it.

For Waghorn, he was only 30, had just scored 40 goals in 150 appearances over his previous 4 seasons in the Championship. I don;t think he was on a downward trajectory. Plus we had a very young squad, it could be that Robins thought his 10 years experience at this level would be invaluable to them, which is not uncharacteristic for MR given his signings of Doyle, Meyler and Matty James. A 2 year contract, on a free at 15k a week is 1.5 Million. For the same price we could have spent 700000 on a proven league 1 striker which we paid 8k a week. About what we did with Tyler Walker.

Side point - Who is it at the club that agrees the salary and contract lengths anyway?

TL DR - I think you're massively downplaying the complexity and the amount of risk you can mitigate when it comes to signing players, especially when you're broke, there's only so much a spreadsheet can tell you.

Joint o'clock now, exhausted after that!

 

[ProfessorbyGrace]

I don’t think Callum O hare will advise him that

Probably not, but Vik seems sensible enough not to make a hasty move that isn’t going to better his career. Saying that, he’ll probably be a Toffee tomorrow, now that I’ve said that.

 

[PVA]

I don't think you can have a pretty good idea whether someone is going to be good enough until they've actually proven themselves at this or an equivalent level, unless they are absolutely head and shoulders above their peers like Maddison and Wilson were, and as a result they went for a lot of money.

And that's what it all comes down to. It's having money that ultimately lowers the risk (and even then it still goes wrong for even the biggest teams). Established players cost top dollar. The less money you have, the bigger the odds you have to gamble on.

Take a player from abroad and they might not adapt to the pace of the game or even just simply living abroad. Take younger players from the leagues below and however good their stats might be, they have not played at this level, where it's faster and more physical e.g. Bayliss, McNulty. Some players develop from coaching, some from playing matches, some from the confidence of having a coach's arm around them telling them how good they are. Some develop at 18, some later, some don't develop at all.

Hilsner and Dacosta between them won't be on half the salary of an established championship player. After all his issues I would be surprised if Bright was on more than 3k. We didn't have any money when we signed Bright but we needed another attacking midfielder so we gambled on his career after leaving us being the kick up the arse he needs, given his high potential ceiling. It wasn't. But i bet we weren't paying him much and either way it didn't last long. Plus there's absolutely no way we re-signed Bright without MR approving it.

For Waghorn, he was only 30, had just scored 40 goals in 150 appearances over his previous 4 seasons in the Championship. I don;t think he was on a downward trajectory. Plus we had a very young squad, it could be that Robins thought his 10 years experience at this level would be invaluable to them, which is not uncharacteristic for MR given his signings of Doyle, Meyler and Matty James. A 2 year contract, on a free at 15k a week is 1.5 Million. For the same price we could have spent 700000 on a proven league 1 striker which we paid 8k a week. About what we did with Tyler Walker.

Side point - Who is it at the club that agrees the salary and contract lengths anyway?

TL DR - I think you're massively downplaying the complexity and the amount of risk you can mitigate when it comes to signing players, especially when you're broke, there's only so much a spreadsheet can tell you.

Joint o'clock now, exhausted after that!

Good post, and mostly agree (apart from the bit about Waghorn, I wasn’t overly happy with his signing at the time).

But yeah signing players is not easy and comes with huge amounts of risk.

If it were then how to do you explain flops that cost £75m+, it shouldn’t happen - they should be nailed on good signings - but it does, quite a lot. And if it’s easy to fuck up a signing for £75m, imagine how difficult it is to consistently sign players in the bargain bin like where we do our shopping.

 

[footyfrenzy]

2 of the worst twitter Coventry accounts - both are full of shit

View attachment 28028

 

[fernandopartridge]

Important for what? His value will be more now than in the summer cos of desperation and contract length. We won’t go down if we sell him and we likely won’t go up without significant investment that we can’t do until the summer clearout.

Important for what? Well around 50% of our (already paltry) goal return. Our whole way of playing is designed around him, it's just the wrong time even though theoretically we could get a good fee, the extra will be swallowed up by the potential relegation.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

I don't think you can have a pretty good idea whether someone is going to be good enough until they've actually proven themselves at this or an equivalent level, unless they are absolutely head and shoulders above their peers like Maddison and Wilson were, and as a result they went for a lot of money.

And that's what it all comes down to. It's having money that ultimately lowers the risk (and even then it still goes wrong for even the biggest teams). Established players cost top dollar. The less money you have, the bigger the odds you have to gamble on.

Take a player from abroad and they might not adapt to the pace of the game or even just simply living abroad. Take younger players from the leagues below and however good their stats might be, they have not played at this level, where it's faster and more physical e.g. Bayliss, McNulty. Some players develop from coaching, some from playing matches, some from the confidence of having a coach's arm around them telling them how good they are. Some develop at 18, some later, some don't develop at all.

Hilsner and Dacosta between them won't be on half the salary of an established championship player. After all his issues I would be surprised if Bright was on more than 3k. We didn't have any money when we signed Bright but we needed another attacking midfielder so we gambled on his career after leaving us being the kick up the arse he needs, given his high potential ceiling. It wasn't. But i bet we weren't paying him much and either way it didn't last long. Plus there's absolutely no way we re-signed Bright without MR approving it.

For Waghorn, he was only 30, had just scored 40 goals in 150 appearances over his previous 4 seasons in the Championship. I don;t think he was on a downward trajectory. Plus we had a very young squad, it could be that Robins thought his 10 years experience at this level would be invaluable to them, which is not uncharacteristic for MR given his signings of Doyle, Meyler and Matty James. A 2 year contract, on a free at 15k a week is 1.5 Million. For the same price we could have spent 700000 on a proven league 1 striker which we paid 8k a week. About what we did with Tyler Walker.

Side point - Who is it at the club that agrees the salary and contract lengths anyway?

TL DR - I think you're massively downplaying the complexity and the amount of risk you can mitigate when it comes to signing players, especially when you're broke, there's only so much a spreadsheet can tell you.

Joint o'clock now, exhausted after that!

I get your points, but even when you say 'he isn't on that much of a salary' it adds up on a collective basis. Going down our first team squad on the official site, there's probably 7 or 8 players taking up wages that aren't to standard or making an effective contribution. Considering the size of our squad, that margin isn't good enough.

There's always budget constraints, risks you have to take and not everything works out. I fully acknowledge that. It is also however, the job of the recruitment team to work within the parameters they have been given. They can't just be let off the hook 'because SISU' or 'it's a bit complex'. If we want to (at the very least survive) in the championship, we have to be extremely astute. The recruitment team have to be smart. There's been some very careless decisions and pretty mind-boggling recruitment and it doesn't matter how much it is downplayed because we have a Gyokeres or a Hamer, because it cannot be so one dimensional. I just hope we can get through to the summer and have a clear out, because we need it. Enjoy your spliff!

 

[SBAndy]

I get your points, but even when you say 'he isn't on that much of a salary' it adds up on a collective basis. Going down our first team squad on the official site, there's probably 7 or 8 players taking up wages that aren't to standard or making an effective contribution. Considering the size of our squad, that margin isn't good enough.

There's always budget constraints, risks you have to take and not everything works out. I fully acknowledge that. It is also however, the job of the recruitment team to work within the parameters they have been given. They can't just be let off the hook 'because SISU' or 'it's a bit complex'. If we want to (at the very least survive) in the championship, we have to be extremely astute. The recruitment team have to be smart. There's been some very careless decisions and pretty mind-boggling recruitment and it doesn't matter how much it is downplayed because we have a Gyokeres or a Hamer, because it cannot be so one dimensional. I just hope we can get through to the summer and have a clear out, because we need it. Enjoy your spliff!

I think you’re being a tad harsh, but equally I get where you’re coming from. Could be argued that if our budget is that pathetic we’d be better off spending *more* on the recruitment team in the hope of more capable scouts, etc being able to identify players that have a better chance of success.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

I disagree on the basis that he is just too important for us at this moment. If multiple clubs are interested we can hold on until the summer.

Yep - PL clubs are still looking at Brereton-Diaz (6 months left on contract) and yet still being touted at up to £15m. I still think Vik will hold his value, The bigger worry would be if he wanted to move abroad and signed some pre-agreement, meaning we got nowt (can't remember how that works re: cut off)

 

[shmmeee]

Important for what? Well around 50% of our (already paltry) goal return. Our whole way of playing is designed around him, it's just the wrong time even though theoretically we could get a good fee, the extra will be swallowed up by the potential relegation.

We’re not going to get relegated because we haven’t got Vik.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Not Vik specifically, but a player who can seem like they are integral and worth extended contracts, wage increases, can pick up injuries and suddenly they are a waste of a wage/why did we give them a 2 year extension etc (look at Kelly, Dabo recently) I was(am) a huge fan of Dabo, but his legs have definitely been affected by cumulative injuries. Who knows how Cal O'Hare will come back, given the amount of 'treatment' he gets off the opposition. It's a fine balancing act managing the budget in this business.

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Yep - PL clubs are still looking at Brereton-Diaz (6 months left on contract) and yet still being touted at up to £15m. I still think Vik will hold his value, The bigger worry would be if he wanted to move abroad and signed some pre-agreement, meaning we got nowt (can't remember how that works re: cut off)

Not sure if it’s true but I heard a rumour of Dortmund scouts watching him. Whatever happens he is one of the hottest strikers to come from the Champ and we must be asking for record league fees here.

 

[shmmeee]

I think you’re being a tad harsh, but equally I get where you’re coming from. Could be argued that if our budget is that pathetic we’d be better off spending *more* on the recruitment team in the hope of more capable scouts, etc being able to identify players that have a better chance of success.

Its not the scouting that the issue really. It’s that players who are guaranteed to be successful at this level cost more. That’s all there is to it. You want a proven Championship player you have to pay for them. You want the best young prospects you have to pay. If you don’t want to pay you have to take more gambles.

But it only takes one Vik or O’Hare to pay for those gambles.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

We’re not going to get relegated because we haven’t got Vik.

We probably would if we didn't get an adequate replacement (s), Would need a minimum of 2 -- possibly 3 decent strikers to replace.him and other absentees (I include Walker, possibly Waghorn leaving)

 

[shmmeee]

We probably would if we didn't get an adequate replacement (s), Would need a minimum of 2 -- possibly 3 decent strikers to replace.him and other absentees (I include Walker, possibly Waghorn leaving)

No one is signing Walker and Waghorn before the summer. Walker won’t be fit until Feb and Waghorn will wait it out to maximise his income.

We’d get a loan striker in but even if we didn’t we’d stay up with Godden and Walker, just like we did before.

 

[fernandopartridge]

We’re not going to get relegated because we haven’t got Vik.

We've also not got O'Hare or McFadzean, it isn't just Vik but he is (by the manager's own words) carrying us.

 

[Grendel]

Important for what?

We’ve scored a pathetic 27 league goals this season

Gyokeres has 12 of them. 3 are from Godden whose injured so we have 12 from available players in 25 games. If you had your way and Allen was shipped out it’s 9 in 25 games

Actually 8 as Mcfazdean is out for most of the season

 

[fernandopartridge]

Our track record of relegations in the aftermath of losing a top scorer is 100%

2001 - lost McAllister
2012 - lost Marlon King
2017 - lost Adam Armstrong

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

No one is signing Walker and Waghorn before the summer. Walker won’t be fit until Feb and Waghorn will wait it out to maximise his income.

We’d get a loan striker in but even if we didn’t we’d stay up with Godden and Walker, just like we did before.

Again, Godden is starting to become a worry injury wise. Relying on Walker, retuning form injury, and Godden would leave me extremely twitchy re: final points total.

 

[mark82]

Our track record of relegations in the aftermath of losing a top scorer is 100%

2001 - lost McAllister
2012 - lost Marlon King
2017 - lost Adam Armstrong

McNulty?

 

[fernandopartridge]

McNulty?

No, phrased it the wrong way. In 100% of the seasons in which we've been relegated in recent years, it's been after losing our top goalscorer from the prior season (or in 2012's case we also lost Juke in January as well as King in the summer before).