The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

Discussion in 'Off Topic Chat' started by jimmyhillsfanclub, Jun 8, 2016.

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As of right now, how are thinking of voting? In or out

Poll closed Jun 15, 2016.
  1. Remain

    23 vote(s)
    37.1%
  2. Leave

    35 vote(s)
    56.5%
  3. Undecided

    3 vote(s)
    4.8%
  4. Not registered or not intention to vote

    1 vote(s)
    1.6%
  1. NorthernWisdom

    NorthernWisdom Well-Known Member

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    This is why I really don't understand the desire to shut down parliamentary debate on the subject.
     
  2. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    It's an attempt by the Tory right to push through the hardest of Brexits....I'm sure there are more than a few who would love for talks to quickly break down and to start dismantly all that red tape.
     
  3. dutchman

    dutchman Well-Known Member

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    The Virgin Sturgeon is doing her best to sabotage the talks as well!
     
  4. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps you could make witty quip about gang rape?
     
  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Which has the backing of the uk communist party and the socialist workers party.

    Oddly I drove down the London road today and passed that old dinosaur Dave Nellist. Another May supporter on this issue.
     
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  6. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Kingokings204

    Kingokings204 Well-Known Member

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    Brexit wasn't about left or right of politics. Many left politicians and groups pushed for brexit as did right wing politicians.

    It was about which direction do you want the country to go. Did you want the U.K. to be a self governing independant country who controls its own borders , own courts and trade deals and even currency or did you want it all done for you by the unelected commission of the eu and courts In Luxembourg as part of a european superstate? That was the question I asked myself anyway in a nut shell.
     
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  8. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    Really? Superstate or independent... there isn't a superstate and we will never be completely independent so long as we live by trade and are defended as NATO members.
     
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  9. dutchman

    dutchman Well-Known Member

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    For all the arguments expressed here the shocking truth is that people in Britain voted mainly along ethnic lines:

    [​IMG]
    Source: Ashcroft
     
  10. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    It's easy to dismiss it if you already own your own home and live a comfortable lifestyle. I'm sure the rising costs of basic food supplies is already hitting the poorest in our society, something I'm sure you have spent a long considering.
     
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  11. Flying Fokker

    Flying Fokker Well-Known Member

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    unfortunately the strong pick off the weak....The Netherlands was an easy target WW2. Their form of democracy gives them little choice but to follow the European model.
     
  12. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    Which form of democracy would be better for them? Putin's - opposition and press murdered, control of media, distraction by playing mr tough guy in foreign policy. Trump's - feeding the public with fake facts and distracting tweets. Erdogan- lock everyone up and introduce a dictatorship. UK's - first past the post duopoly, and referenda based on lies. Orban's - just call foreigners and refugees what they are stuff international law. The choice of democracies is varied.
     
  13. Flying Fokker

    Flying Fokker Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm I thought I'd said what I thought was probably their best choice. Not any of the others. But I didn't say that did I?
     
  14. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    No.
     
  15. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    I yawn because you think up bad things by yourself, jump to conclusions without considering alternatives and then state them as fact.

    1. No, there is not a majority of even the Tory party that want a hard brexit. Are there any? Sure, just like your previous facts that the far right are behind voting to leave - but they are not in control are they? A hard brexit is being considered only as a last resort.
    2. If there is a reduction in immigration it will remove pressure on housing and they will become more affordable. This was one of the main reasons why I voted to leave.
    3. If there is a reduction in immigration then it will remove wage pressure on the lowest earners and they will have more to spend - not less.
    4. Inflation is increasing due to the relatively weak fx rate - yes. But the fx rate isn't outside the bounds of normal fluctuation anyway and when we increase the BoE base rate it will strengthen. It already strengthened just on the hint that the monetary committee is now becoming more hawkish.
    5. We only import a quarter of food from the EU and we also export food. We import nearly a quarter from outside the EU. If there are import tariffs with the EU then we'll eat more home produced food and food from outside the EU which will become cheaper when we agree trade terms that cannot be agreed now.

    I don't know what will happen. I voted on the balance of probability that things will get better when we leave and there is still a very strong case to make that they will; that the poorest will have more money, that houses will become more affordable... Just try to consider the alternatives to the doom scenario you play in your head. If the worst comes to the worst and there is a hard brexit then there are alternatives.
     
  16. SkyblueBazza

    SkyblueBazza Well-Known Member

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    Well if you ask me - Nicola Sturgeon should be taken out & flogged.
    Anyone suggesting that Teresa May doesn't want a referendum on Scottish independence at the moment because she suspects she will lose deserves the same! I mean...the SNP are only pushing for one because they think they will win ffs!

    ...onwards & upwards PUSB
     
  17. SkyblueBazza

    SkyblueBazza Well-Known Member

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    And another thing! It was said to have cost the Scottish Gov't £15.8m to hold the last vote. With inflation that will easily run to £20m for a repeat - how can they afford it in these austere times? Surely they could find many thing more worthy to spend it on?

    ...onwards & upwards PUSB
     
  18. Kingokings204

    Kingokings204 Well-Known Member

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    That's a good point how much did the eu refendum cost in total? Must of been a fortune
     
  19. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    I thought they hadn't considered the effects of a very hard Brexit. If there are less immigrants there will be a reduction of contract in the building industry and the population will stop rising and maybe decline reducing demand for products and services.

    Inflation has started to kick in a bit and interest rates have started to creep up - US leading - which will also affect house prices and consumption.

    I don't know which of the arguments will prevail. I wouldn't have taken the risk though.

    At the end of the day, I think that with the tories romping away, the poorest will not have more money to spend. Just a hunch based on the tories present economic policies. The rich will though.
     
  20. dutchman

    dutchman Well-Known Member

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    It's no different in the €urozone. The European Central Bank had printed money to buy bonds which has created an asset bubble for the mega rich which has yet to translate into any so-called trickle-down effect on the poor. Manual workers in countries like Holland and Germany are having to work longer and harder in order to bail out profligate states like Greece and Italy.
     
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  21. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    I think there will be fewer immigrants. Who knows if the population will actually fall? That totally depends upon whether we can agree with the EU that existing immigrants can stay - but the intention is that they can (good, as it would be tremendously unfair otherwise). Interest rates will start to rise if the economy is doing well - but nobody thinks they will grow quickly and grow above trend. 10 year gilt yield is 1.24% - meaning that maybe the base rate will be 1.5% ish in 10 years*. The City isn't always right but on the balance of probability interest rates will still be relatively low for a long time. But yes; a fall in population and high interest rates will cause house prices to grow less quickly or actually fall - and that will impact builders. Whether that is gentle fall from the building bubble just now or a crash will depend on lots of things.

    I agree that we will probably see the Tories in power for many years, but that depends upon the Labour party getting its act together. Even if they do reform after the expected 2020 defeat we may well see a prolonged period before they regain the nation's trust.

    Who are the rich? Do you mean the 0.1% super-rich? Well, yes they usually find a way to make money at a faster pace than everyone else; mostly because they own lots of property and companies which tend to grow at at least at the rate of inflation. Also some of them are tax avoiders and evaders. I see a really tight squeeze on tax dodging which will impact them. It has already started.

    Everyone else will be bound to the natural growth of the economy, which is something we don't know - but if I am correct the working poor will share the wealth over this period. The non-working poor's lot will be dictated more by benefits policy than anything else. I see two factors here: 1) The deficit really is starting to fall now and within 10 years we'l actually be able to reduce the national debt and/or have more to spend. 2) Policy: will the government decide to give the non-working more fish or will they nudge them to start fishing? If the latter then there will be fewer unemployed but possibly yes, the people who still don't work will not be better off.

    * Gilt yields show us the risk fee rate to invest from today for the term of the gilt. They represent a time-weighted average of the base rate. 30 year gilts yield 1.8% so without working it out on a spreadsheet about 1.5% or slightly lower for BoE base in 10 years time.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
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  22. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    One more factor that will impact the poor negatively, which has nothing to do with the EU... There has been a very hard push against landlords over the past few budgets: No longer able to net off interest on mortgages for tax (causing some landlords to sell up); stamp duty increase (which causes fewer new landlords); banning contract fees to tenants. All of these will supply more houses to buy but also reduce the number for let. For those who still need to let they are already seeing (and will continue to see) above average growth in rental costs. I don't agree with the tax policy (which is actually reducing availability of lets). Stamp duty merely stops new lets and so isn't so bad and the contract fees will possibly be partially absorbed by landlords and so the least bad of these new rules.
     
  23. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    We pay nearly £900 a month for a one bed flat. At the moment, there is black mould growing on a wall in the kitchen, there is a leak in the boiler, the oven and hob do not work due to tripping the electricity and one of our bedroom windows has a hole in the wood due to rot.

    Our threats at withholding rent are met with counter-threats of poor credit rating.

    It's a fucking disgrace and I genuinely can't wait to leave this hell hole of a country and actually not have to line the pockets of some buy to let landlord and actually save money for myself and a future family.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
  24. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    I have bookmarked this post and look forward to seeing it again in a few years. ;)
    If you believe the likes of Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith, Rees mogg care about the poor and vulnerabile and would like to fairer distribution of wealth, then you are majorly deluded.

    May does not have a backbone and crumbles as soon as Dacre disapproves. Having her as PM does not bode well for negotiations....all we need is for the Mail to get up in arms about the 'divorce bill' and urging her not pay it.
     
  25. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    Are they? People are getting pay rises above inflation- 4 or 5%. There is pressure on wages - in the cities at least. I am paying my staff more. Cannot speak for Holland as I don't know. We have very low unemployment in Germany which means that wages have to go up. There are, though, about 1 million of unemployed who are difficult to place and are, or will be, long term unemployed.
     
  26. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    I don't know what will happen so you may be right. Will you play the post back to me if I'm right? ;)

    I have a lot of respect for all those you mention, especially Rees-Mogg (with the exception of the time that he supported Trump). Listen to what he says; he's logical and calm and almost always wins any debate on Question Time etc. He's also got a sense of humour and can laugh at himself. Their aims appear to me not necessarily to redistribute wealth (which is a misguided aim IMO) but rather to create an environment in which people can achieve what they want. If you don't want to achieve anything then you won't.
     
  27. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    And some proportion of unemployment will always be with us. The personal character and ability necessarily to want and to keep a job is a bell curve.
     
  28. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    In most cases, mould is caused by excess damp in the atmosphere and that hitting a cold surface and condensing. That is why is occurs in kitchens and bathrooms. Open windows when cooking and keep the heat on and it will solve the problem. If this is the cause and you are not taking reasonable steps to control it then it is your fault and the landlord has the right to retain deposits to put right - which could even lead to replastering in extreme circumstances.

    The next most common source is a leak in a gutter or a roof. If you can see stains or obvious problems there then you can contact your landlord.

    For the other problems, it does sound like you have a bad landlord. There are some. However recent regulations have given tenants much more power. Contact Shelter: What to do if your landlord won’t do repairs
     
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  29. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    We already do all that....we have to keep salt on a radiator to ensure it doesn't solidify. :mad: The kitchen seems to be an extension that was done on the cheap. We had a look behind the oven and the entire wall is dark black with white fungus.
     
  30. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    That certainly explains a lot. ;)
     
  31. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    It does sound like condensation mould then, as objects close to the wall will trap moisture. How many exterior walls does it have? The more there are the greater the risk of mould. It's possible it hasn't been insulated properly. Follow up with Shelter or the council if your landlord won't act. Tenants have a huge amount of power now to act against bad landlords and if he doesn't act the council can take him to court. Legislation brought in by the Tories... just saying. :)

    EDIT: Do it even if you are leaving soon for Italy. Bad landlords must never get away with bad behaviour as the next tenants may not know the power they have.
     
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  32. dutchman

    dutchman Well-Known Member

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    Really?

    Eurozone wage growth stumbles at drabbest pace since 2010
    Eurozone Wages Growth Weakest in Almost Six Years
    Euro Area Wage Growth | 2009-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Sick Boy

    Sick Boy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks :D I will send you some pictures of the interior and exterior, if that's OK? The general quality of rental accommodation in Brighton & Hove is shocking!
     
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  34. mrtrench

    mrtrench Well-Known Member

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    Sure - but I'm not an expert; I'm a landlord (one who ensures that my properties are in excellent condition and responds to solve tenants' issues immediately). I know as much as I need in order to solve their issues. I'm also therefore very up with what rights tenants have and landlord obligations.
     
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  35. martcov

    martcov Well-Known Member

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    Yes, these who are "difficult to place" are often so because of their own attitude.
     

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