Irish Sky Blue
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Why January? Surely May is the important month.
Taxi on the way (23 Viewers)
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singers_pore
Well-Known Member
At the moment we are 7th in L2 while Morecambe are 18th. I suspect we have a slightly bigger budget and wage bill which is reflected in our respective positions in the table.
A more relevant question would be: Do you think Luton have a bigger budget and wage bill than us?
The reason they are top and we are not is down to wages and that is due to our shitty owners rather than the manager. But that doesn't fit your narrative which always seeks to deflect attention away from SISU towards whoever happens to be our current manager.
Nick
Administrator
I haven't deflected anything. I asked a basic question.
We hammered Luton by the way. The fact we struggle against lower teams has been obvious from the get go.
If we had played Luton yesterday and had that result you would have a point.
singers_pore
Well-Known Member
Now you are getting desperate. The only thing that matters is the league position, not one off results. If you think our squad is good enough to get promoted (minus Jones and Andreu) you are frankly delusional. Even with Jones and Andreu I doubt we would be good enough for the automatic promotion places. Without them, we are heading for mid-lower table.
But you keep on blaming the manager. Just like you do every season.
You may watch every game (as do I) but it's pretty obvious that you are not a very good pundit.
dongonzalos
Well-Known Member
Skyblueweeman
Well-Known Member
Respectfully, I disagree. To be fair, we’re in the play offs without one of them all season. To me (and others can rightly disagree), Andreu was our marquee signing this year.
Had he not had his injury, we could well be in the autos. It’s only 5 or 8 points (depending on whether Accrington win their game in hand). I’d put money on the fact that if Andreu had of played this season, we’d have more than 5 additional points on our tally.
One man doesn’t make a team but we’ve lacked a creative midfielder other than Jones.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again...I genuinely believe that the loss of Andreu seriously dented our promotion prospects before they even began.
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Nick
Administrator
Where? Read the thread, I am saying I don't want to sack the manager and want him to address it and be allowed to sort it.
The squad and budget should be more than enough for a top 7 finish which is what I said at the start of the season, I have never said anything about automatic places and have never said we are amazing and should win the league. Look through all of the pre-season prediction threads when people were getting excited and see what I was saying.
There is no desperation at all. It's common sense that anything other than top 7 and Robins is not doing his job properly.
There is no hands tied excuse this year, that is also common sense.
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Grendel
Well-Known Member
Andreu has hardly played and Jones has played in most of the games where we have under performed against teams with a lower budget - we have beaten Notts County, Luton and Exeter with ease. Games against Forest Green, Colchester, Chesterfield and Morecombe to name but a few have been poor and these teams do not have significant budgets. As indeed Accrington do not.
NortonSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
It's hard to argue against a word of that. This is the puzzle that Robins has to solve and his success in doing that will keep him in a job.
Time will tell.
Otis
Well-Known Member
The Andreu is God and would have saved us is a bit of a myth.
He showed a few silky skills and cleverness, but he played so little that we have no idea whether he would have turned out to be that good for us for not.
Just 5 appearances and probably only one good performance amongst those appearances. It was just little flashes besides that.
singers_pore
Well-Known Member
This is off topic, but I know you are a redskins fan. Today they got hammered by LA's second team, the Chargers. I did my old "fast forward" viewing and so I got to see all the action in 10 minutes. The Eagles - Rams game was better.
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Why do you think that's happened?
Otis
Well-Known Member
It was. The Seahawks v Jaguars too and the Pittsburgh v Baltimore.
Redskins were absolute pants yesterday, which ties in nicely with Coventry City's abject failure at the weekend too.
Esoterica
Well-Known Member
Tactics.
You do not score 12 goals against the top 8, scoring in 5 of 6 games at an average of 2 goals per game, with a win % of 83.3 and then score 3 and concede 6 against the bottom 8, failing to score in 5 out of 8 games with a win % of 25% if it's just down to: Needing a clinical striker, players missing chances, McWankty being shit, Biamou and Beavon, Ponticelli not playing. We've scored 6 first half goals in 21 games and 15 in the second half of games. Do these people blaming individuals think our strikers suddenly get twice as good in the 2nd half of games?
Anyone trying to argue that stats like that are just down to individuals not performing have got their heads in the sand - it's too consistent a pattern. We have played the same system in virtually every game this season and all we've done is rotate the squad within that. Our inability to break down defensive teams has been on display since the Newport and Yeovil games - that was August, 4 months ago and we've barely changed a thing since - that's not down to owners, playing in an empty stadium or whatever other excuse people want to make, it's just poor tactics.
I desperately want Robins to succeed but he's blowing it big time this season while a few wins against the top teams paper over the cracks.
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Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Should be the San Diego Chargers! Another Wasps style catastrophe that was!
oucho
Well-Known Member
Nice bit of analysis, that, Esoterica. One thing I noticed from that, which I hadn't previously spotted (but really should have done), is that we're only scoring 1 goal per game. That's no formula for a promotion campaign, regardless of how well we defend.
One thing I'd like to see, and maybe you can do this if you've got the data in a usable format, is that analyse all the "permanent" (LOL !!) managers we've had since Strachan, and look at how their points per game average, based on a rolling 10 game average, fluctuated during their tenure. What I'd be looking for would be the initial impact from the point of taking over (this showing he short term impact / justification for changing manager) and how this initial spike levels off and then stars to drop off, to the point where the manager is sacked. I wonder what the stats can tell us about how true / pronounced that pattern is for the likes of Adams, Coleman, Aidy, Thorn, Boothroyd etc.
King of the Lesbians
Well-Known Member
Yeah, and when you've done that maybe you could come and clear the snow off my drive...
On reflection so far this seasons been piss poor. The footballs been dire and watching tripe in biamou, mcnulty, vincenti is simply testing my patience in Robins. I’d give him til February then review it then but I get the constant changing not working as well.
What pisses me off is when we were recruiting in the summer it felt like it was grab grab grab and not enough homework done. I don’t know that as a fact and simply surmising but there’s a stack of better players out there than these three.
What pisses me off is when we were recruiting in the summer it felt like it was grab grab grab and not enough homework done. I don’t know that as a fact and simply surmising but there’s a stack of better players out there than these three.
oucho
Well-Known Member
I think you're being a bit harsh. Out of 12/13 summer signings, most have either been a success (Kelly, Doyle, Duck, Grimmer, Rod, Davies) or haven't had much of a chance through injury or team selection (Hyam, Andreu, O'Brien). OK it's a bit questionable to re-sign Haynes and Beavon but most of the contract renewals/extensions (such as Stokes, Burge, Willis) seem pretty reasonable to me. I'd even argue that Biamou and McNulty would warrent further time before judgement is made - they haven't been played in their natural positions which makes judgement on them as players a bit harsh. Only Vincenti has been a genuine disappointment.
It seems that the definition of success on this board is "are we doing as well as we expect" i.e. are we walking away with the league title / automatic spots? No, but we're in the play-offs which at the start of the season I'd have said was a pretty reasonable performance. We're in contention for automatic halfway through the season - how is that a sackable offence? I do get that 10 games and 2 wins is disappointing but let's judge him on where we are in the league, not the last few games. Since when was it a sackable offence to go on a poor run of form?
stupot07
Well-Known Member
And that goes back to quality of chances, as peoples pot shots from 25+ yards will be included in that. Its clear we're lacking quality creativity in the final third.
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Nick
Administrator
Surely playing Vincenti as a right winger means it's harsh to judge him too?
oucho
Well-Known Member
Yep, very possibly. I hesitated before typing that, but in the end I understood at the time he was signed that he'd be playing as a right winger, and in playing him in that role means MR was entitled to better performances.
Nick
Administrator
Anybody can tell he isn't a right winger.
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
I'm glad we have people who can back it up with the stats. Great bit of analysis
Esoterica
Well-Known Member
I really don't like a lot of Ben's charts honestly. Most use the most ambiguous statistic of 'shots'. Opta (the source of his data) categorises 2 more refined definitions :
Big Chances
A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.
Expected Goals
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.
Expected goals explained in more detail here:
This is why I like expected goals. (In response to the Deadspin article.)
Ben uses Expected Goals in just one of those 4.
His website commentary of this chart states: 'While Coventry have created plenty of chances (as per the 'shots' graphic), their attack looks a lot more average here when we correct for shot quality, suggesting that many of those efforts are struck from poor positions. Their defence is potentially awesome enough to compensate however.'
And this has been the problem with our season - massively over compensating defensively and scoring too few to mount a serious Automatics challenge. With Jones and Kelly injured, our expected goals allowed per match is creeping up but proportionally Expected goals created is not. The tactics have to change to get the best out of the players we do have left.
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oucho
Well-Known Member
Which makes it all the stranger that he signed for us specifically to play in that role.
no_loyalty
Well-Known Member
How many games did he last for at Huddersfield and Scunthorpe before he got found out, and subsequently sacked?
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
Excellent analysis @Esoterica its good to have the statistical analysis to back up what we already know s opposed to throttling "sack the manager" or "we need to buy a striker".
Anybody sat at the Ricoh or watching ifollow can see creativity is our biggest problem and we're missing our 2 most creative attackers for the season and our more creative holding midfielder for 2 months.
Anybody sat at the Ricoh or watching ifollow can see creativity is our biggest problem and we're missing our 2 most creative attackers for the season and our more creative holding midfielder for 2 months.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
When you say found out it’s worth noting his record at both those clubs was better than 5 of the last 6 managers we’ve had
Esoterica
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure he did. I think the slowness in getting Turnbull and Kyel Reid out the door and George Thomas fucking us about had a lot to do with that.
Vincenti signed June 21st, and George officially signed for Leicester on August 8th, with Reid leaving on August 7th. We then had Andreu signing on August 10th and Tom Davies on August 31st. I'd guess Andreu becoming available was too good to turn down and meant a good chunk of the remaining budget got used and the panic signing of Davies to cover the phantom injury to Rod McDonald shut the door on any winger getting signed. But that is entirely speculation based on the signing dates and the glaring squad imbalance.
Manager Mark Robins said: "I am delighted to welcome Peter to our Football Club, he will bring a different dimension to our squad and adds to the options we already have.
"Not only is he a very good player, he is versatile and experienced, having been a part of a League Two promotion winning side during his time at Rochdale.
So versatile we've done nothing but let him hug the touchline!
Nick
Administrator
Where was that said?
oucho
Well-Known Member
I'm happy to be corrected here, but I remember having the distinct impression when PV signed that he'd be playing as a winger, probably on the right.
Adge
Well-Known Member
No, just a right tit!
steve82
Well-Known Member
Just finally catching up after a busy 48 hours, tried to read this thread the best I can do so a little late to the party
For my 10p's worth... I dont think sacking MR is the way forwards at the minute tho the form in the last 10 games largely hasn't been great and rightfully brings questions to the fore that he has to correct. We've bobbed along the last 2 months slowly slipping behind tho ironically staying in touch with a poor league.
At this minute in time I've still not seen the Morecambe game so my judgement is prior to that game tho on reports and comments I've read there was a team of underperforming players not individuals.
To me it's down to the way we're tactically set up and I've thought this from 3 games in. This formation for starters don't suit L2 style of football to me. The first 10 games showed we had frailties in our attacking build up play and we're very negative, slow and deep as a side for large parts... fast forwards another 11 games and it's been exposed tho we've lost 2 key players in that time and now Kelly till the new year and we need to remember that.
January needs to bring a change of formation and a more quicker direct approach with wingers and a more fitting 442 formation that fits the league we're in. MR has to change his favoured system and adapt to do this.
Am I happy with the recruitment done in the summer, yes I still am as we're many on here when each player arrived let's not forget!!
For my 10p's worth... I dont think sacking MR is the way forwards at the minute tho the form in the last 10 games largely hasn't been great and rightfully brings questions to the fore that he has to correct. We've bobbed along the last 2 months slowly slipping behind tho ironically staying in touch with a poor league.
At this minute in time I've still not seen the Morecambe game so my judgement is prior to that game tho on reports and comments I've read there was a team of underperforming players not individuals.
To me it's down to the way we're tactically set up and I've thought this from 3 games in. This formation for starters don't suit L2 style of football to me. The first 10 games showed we had frailties in our attacking build up play and we're very negative, slow and deep as a side for large parts... fast forwards another 11 games and it's been exposed tho we've lost 2 key players in that time and now Kelly till the new year and we need to remember that.
January needs to bring a change of formation and a more quicker direct approach with wingers and a more fitting 442 formation that fits the league we're in. MR has to change his favoured system and adapt to do this.
Am I happy with the recruitment done in the summer, yes I still am as we're many on here when each player arrived let's not forget!!
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