The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (85 Viewers)

[clint van damme]

Yes I do blame Cameron more than the voters who were lied to.

He bought votes in the GE by saying that we would get a referendum if the Tories got back in. If Cameron never offered the referendum to buy cites the referendum wouldn't have happened.

Then you have the voters. Cameron told the truth about getting a referendum if he got back in. Vote for Cameron vote for referendum. Yet not the voters fault.

Listen to the lies and project fear from both sides. Millions voted both ways because of the lies. Yet you say it was the voters fault.

Hope that clears it up for you.

so my point stands, you're making a good case for a second referendum as this was one mans poor policy making.
I don't agree with your point and I don't agree with a second referendum.

 

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[RegTheDonk]

.....I literally haven't met a single leave voter who has changed their mind. .....

Likewise. Dunno who does these opinion polls, but everyone I speak to (whichever way they voted) still feel the same.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

But you want to go against a democratic vote to see if you can have another referendum because you don't like the result.

And again I put up the same long post. You pick out one small single sentence from it. How about putting that small single sentence into the context of the whole post. As in the problems caused if another referendum is called.

All you keep doing is pushing forward your own agenda. How about considering other things. Like what would happen if you got your own way.

You asked me if I was willing to overturn a democratic vote with another, I said yes. That has been established and an increasing amount of others want to have the final day on a Brexit deal. It’s not about reversing the original referendum.

This is about breaking a constitutional crisis by deferring to the electorate, again. It’s not an ideal situation. If a no-deal Brexit happens without a second referendum, there will be another referendum within 20 years, especially if Brexit goes badly.

The question was a simple ‘in’ or ‘out’ question, which is vague, and predictably, there’s a desire to have a new referendum. I made this point as an undergraduate in 2015, especially on the point about remaining in the EEA — which May’s deal keeps Britain in. Brexiteers like Rees-Mogg have explicitly stated that ‘it’s better to remain an EU member than to become a vassal of the EU’.

Is May’s deal what you and most Leavers voted for? No. Do you want May’s deal to be ratified? From what I gather, no. Voters did not vote for no-deal.

Brexit will remain a divisive issue for decades regardless of whether we end up U-turning and staying, or if we actually end up leaving.

Personally, you should focus on the positives of a second referendum for Brexiteers.

In an ideal, utopian world, we’d leave the EU, retain access to its markets and not have to adhere to any of its rules and regulations. But that’s not how it works.

What was the question posed in the referendum?

I'm sure it was leave or remain. Nothing about deals. Nothing to do with the EU doing whatever they can to keep their claws in us.

Addressed above.

As I’ve outlined, a second referendum is just as much in the Brexiteers interests than the Remainers. Why let Brexit be held accountable to May’s deal?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

There's only 'impasse' because remainers won't stop making noise.

My solution would be to carry on as normal and execute a no deal, but I'm not in charge...

I think that’s as blind to the realities of the situation as some who about second refurrendum without understanding the complexities of how this would be interpreted by millions of people.

No deal as astute points out means little change for 12 months but at some point decisions need to be made.

By all economic measures no deal means we lose out. What for you is the benefit to this loss of income

 

[djr8369]

There was no pressure on Cameron. He thought the plebs would vote remain.

And I was right. You are going to come out with excuses to try and back up your comments.

You are preaching to someone who would prefer to stay in the EU. My wife right at this minute is looking for a house to buy in France. But I look at the faults of each side. I don't look to blame the voters.

There was no pressure on Cameron? People had been carefully building an anti EU sentiment for decades causing huge division in the Tory party! He called the vote due to this and the fact they were losing voters to UKIP.

I’m not making excuses, just stating facts. I’m sure Cameron is still kicking himself but the Brexiters and the public who voted leave have to take responsibility too.


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[RegTheDonk]

......Is May’s deal what you and most Leavers voted for? No. Do you want May’s deal to be ratified? From what I gather, no. Voters did not vote for no-deal......

.......As I’ve outlined, a second referendum is just as much in the Brexiteers interests than the Remainers. Why let Brexit be held accountable to May’s deal?

The reason we had a vote in the first place was people had been complaining for years and years and years about how the EU had effectively taken control of our borders and laws. Lies from both sides yes, but that doesn't affect the publics perception of those two principal points. Forget the detail, a re-vote for remain would ultimately see these two factors crushed.

If there is to be a peoples vote, fair enough - vote Deal or No Deal. Mays way or the highway. That settles your arguement that voters didnt vote for a no-deal. None of this bollocks about remaining, because (again) that takes away the principal reasons Cameron had to offer that carrot to us in the first place.

 

[djr8369]

Of course I see the benefits. Even the blind can see the benefits. But it isn't all good. And the blind can also see that.

We joined a trading block. It has become much more. And they want it to continue becoming much more. Even the countries leaders say the EU needs reform. But it isn't happening.

The EU looks like it could be heading for recession. It could bring us down with it. We are tied too tightly with it. It is a worry.

Why do you think the EU is heading for a recession?

I think it’s highly likely there will be a world wide recession this year but I suspect it will be worse for the U.K. than the EU as our growth has already slowed significantly and were wasting money trying to get out of the worlds biggest trading bloc with no plan what to do after.


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[Sky Blue Pete]

Likewise. Dunno who does these opinion polls, but everyone I speak to (whichever way they voted) still feel the same.

I don’t feel the same and I know loads who feel that a fresh refurrendum is needed to move the situation forward. Next step is the vote is taken to vote down may’s Deal. It looks like Parliament will then move to avoid a no deal. It’s not clear what happens then, probably something in the year the Eu have said things will stay the same. You’d like the Conservative party to say general election and for the country to decide based on what’s offered who they want to lead this year. More likely May should stand aside and say right you wanted to leave you need to work with the Eu to decide how to Johnson and Gove and the erg but they don’t have the support of the majority of the party so how on earth does that work??

As someone said twists and turns ahead

 

[Astute]

We won't know for sure, you're right, but in the case of a no deal we can do a lot more than guess. And it doesn't look good.
I don't think there is any possible outcome that won't cause turmoil either politically or economically.
Still a lot of twists and turns to come.

Which is exactly what I have been saying.

The no deal situation is more about Ireland than anything else. Now the EU has said not much will change for at least a year if we leave without an agreement. Whichever way it happens the trade deal still hasn't started to be debated. So it isn't as massive as some make it out to be. It is still big for both sides though.

 

[Astute]

so my point stands, you're making a good case for a second referendum as this was one mans poor policy making.
I don't agree with your point and I don't agree with a second referendum.

The point of those voting for the referendum are at fault as much as those voting leave are at fault as much as each other?

 

[martcov]

Of course I see the benefits. Even the blind can see the benefits. But it isn't all good. And the blind can also see that.

We joined a trading block. It has become much more. And they want it to continue becoming much more. Even the countries leaders say the EU needs reform. But it isn't happening.

The EU looks like it could be heading for recession. It could bring us down with it. We are tied too tightly with it. It is a worry.

The EU reforms that the governments are talking about are a fiscal union and a defence force. No one wants to end FOM as you would like.

The UK is virtually definitely going to take a bigger hit because of Brexit. And you are worried about the EU?

 

[Astute]

You asked me if I was willing to overturn a democratic vote with another, I said yes. That has been established and an increasing amount of others want to have the final day on a Brexit deal. It’s not about reversing the original referendum.


Is May’s deal what you and most Leavers voted for? No. Do you want May’s deal to be ratified? From what I gather, no. Voters did not vote for no-deal.


Personally, you should focus on the positives of a second referendum for Brexiteers.

Yes having another referendum is about reversing the first one.

I didn't vote leave. The question was leave or remain. Or would you like to point out where it was put forward differently.

So what are the positives on another referendum? You haven't made one comment to the points I made on the difficulties it would create.

Best of how many referendums?

Keep having referendums until there is a big enough majority either way?

Keep having referendums until we get a remain result?

If we had another referendum and it ended up 52% remain would that be the end of it?

 

[clint van damme]

The point of those voting for the referendum are at fault as much as those voting leave are at fault as much as each other?

I don't know if I agree they're as much at fault but they certainly contributed without doubt. And when I say at fault, it may turn out that they were right even though I personally doubt it.

 

[Grendel]

The notion Brexiteers would want another referendum which includes an option to remain is an absurd one.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Yes having another referendum is about reversing the first one.

I didn't vote leave. The question was leave or remain. Or would you like to point out where it was put forward differently.

So what are the positives on another referendum? You haven't made one comment to the points I made on the difficulties it would create.

Best of how many referendums?

Keep having referendums until there is a big enough majority either way?

Keep having referendums until we get a remain result?

If we had another referendum and it ended up 52% remain would that be the end of it?

For a major change it’s usually 2/3 isn’t it? I get annoyed by the will of the people mantra and can see why this level of support either way is important to make major changes. I think a refurrendum should be once in a generation. This was an abdication of responsibility for me. Our elected representatives are paid to consider and then make decisions.

I almost feel like stopping any discussion until parliament has voted agianst the deal and then we will know a bit more

What I think is true is it’s May’s deal or no deal at this stage.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

The notion Brexiteers would want another referendum which includes an option to remain is an absurd one.

Yep absurd

 

[Astute]

There was no pressure on Cameron? People had been carefully building an anti EU sentiment for decades causing huge division in the Tory party! He called the vote due to this and the fact they were losing voters to UKIP.

I’m not making excuses, just stating facts. I’m sure Cameron is still kicking himself but the Brexiters and the public who voted leave have to take responsibility too.


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Pressure? It was a vote winning miscalculation by Cameron.

So why were they losing votes to UKIP? This wasn't false promises. It was how people feel. That sentiment is growing throughout the EU. Doesn't that tell you something?

I hope we end up staying in the EU. We won't need another referendum to do so. That will be done when the proper negotiations start. I honestly don't think we will leave 100%. May and the EU seem to have a plan. But I would only be happy if the EU reforms. It is going the wrong way. The only people who don't want reform in the EU are those who are in charge of it.

 

[martcov]

I have asked repeatedly on this thread for someone to spell out the potential economic benefits of leaving the EU, no one has come back with anything that make sense.

I'm sure eventually we will get things back on an even keel but how long and at what cost?
The vultures will be hovering next year, (Trump, Bolnasaro etc,), I don't see it ending well.

I don’t think we will ever again have the negotiating power with other countries or the influence in Europe that we have at the moment. We had to give up our empire and now we are withdrawing from the wealthiest and largest trading block in the world because a portion of the population doesn’t like the EU. Another step downwards.

 

[Astute]

Why do you think the EU is heading for a recession?

I think it’s highly likely there will be a world wide recession this year but I suspect it will be worse for the U.K. than the EU as our growth has already slowed significantly and were wasting money trying to get out of the worlds biggest trading bloc with no plan what to do after.


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I think you need to check the latest numbers. They are nothing like the EU told us they would be. Not a surprise though. But many EU countries are struggling. We have had yet another month of record employment.

Why else do you think the EU have said that they would keep things the same for at least a year when they have said the opposite until now? We have one of the strongest economies when they made out ours was the weakest. And of course the Tories would have been a part of this as they want us to remain.

You need to look beyond the headlines and look at the numbers.

 

[CCFCSteve]

For a major change it’s usually 2/3 isn’t it? I get annoyed by the will of the people mantra and can see why this level of support either way is important to make major changes. I think a refurrendum should be once in a generation. This was an abdication of responsibility for me. Our elected representatives are paid to consider and then make decisions.

I almost feel like stopping any discussion until parliament has voted agianst the deal and then we will know a bit more

What I think is true is it’s May’s deal or no deal at this stage.

Yep, agreed. It should have had some kind of margin in it, bizarre that it didn’t (I don’t think Scottish independence vote had it either) but we are where we are.

Also agree that ‘the will the people’ is nonsense on so many levels as people for Remain and Leave for various different reasons, not all of which could be addressed in either scenario. Remain (not wanting change, enjoying the freedom of movement in the EU, fear). Leave (sovereignty, stopping freedom of movement, believeing their was a bigger/wider world to focus on) to name a few.

I was reading again about Mays deal and if my understanding is correct if we move into the backstop we continue to have access to the EU market with no quotas and not having to pay anything or accepting freedom of movement. If people cut out the noise around it I believe most of the public would go for that as a very worst case scenrio (until a trade deal was agreed and Irish border issue is resolved, which surely it will through technology in due course)

I don’t like the fact that we may have to accept new EU rules/laws without having a say whilst we are in it or the issues caused in relation to the union. However, let’s be honest, if the above is true there is little incentive in the EU allowing us to stay in the backstop for longer than necessary unless they introduced laws to intentionally damage the UK (extremely unlikely but if they did you breach the backstop unilaterally, argue your case and accept the consequences - undesirable but wouldn’t ever be necessary as mentioned above). If anything we might want to use it as leverage ourselves and stay in it until we finalise trade agreements which won’t be quick.

 

[Astute]

I don’t feel the same and I know loads who feel that a fresh refurrendum is needed to move the situation forward. Next step is the vote is taken to vote down may’s Deal. It looks like Parliament will then move to avoid a no deal. It’s not clear what happens then, probably something in the year the Eu have said things will stay the same. You’d like the Conservative party to say general election and for the country to decide based on what’s offered who they want to lead this year. More likely May should stand aside and say right you wanted to leave you need to work with the Eu to decide how to Johnson and Gove and the erg but they don’t have the support of the majority of the party so how on earth does that work??

As someone said twists and turns ahead

Plenty of twists and turns ahead.

I think May will stay until it is all over. I think we will stay in the EU in some way at least. Then May will resign and become the scapegoat. We will remain as one if the strongest countries in the EU and they will continue to sell much mire to us than we buy and continue to take billions of pounds each year off us. The rest of the details need to be decided.

 

[Astute]

The EU reforms that the governments are talking about are a fiscal union and a defence force. No one wants to end FOM as you would like.

The UK is virtually definitely going to take a bigger hit because of Brexit. And you are worried about the EU?

I take a look at what you say and straight away wonder why I bothered.

I want an end of FOM? Show me where I have ever said that. I have always said the opposite. I want FOM for myself. But of course you will ignore this.

Nobody wants FOM to end? Shows how clueless you are if you are being honest from Germany. That was one of the big reas8ns people voted leave. Or would you like to explain why you say so? And truthfully.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Yes having another referendum is about reversing the first one.

I didn't vote leave. The question was leave or remain. Or would you like to point out where it was put forward differently.

So what are the positives on another referendum? You haven't made one comment to the points I made on the difficulties it would create.

Best of how many referendums?

Keep having referendums until there is a big enough majority either way?

Keep having referendums until we get a remain result?

If we had another referendum and it ended up 52% remain would that be the end of it?

I’ve answered most of these questions in previous posts, but for your benefit.

The case for a second referendum is about deferring the decision to the electorate again because of the current dissatisfaction with May’s deal and the deadlock in parliament. It is entirely possible Leave wine again.

It’s not the case of ‘best of...’ referendums, but political contexts change which creates the demand for referendums. In this scenario, Brexit is a mess and the public should have the opportunity to have a final say. Down the line, if Brexit goes badly, there will be an appetite to rejoin the EU. Likewise, if it was reversed, a resurgent eurosceptic movement may demand another Brexit referendum down the line. I’ll say it again explicitly, this issue will not go away regardless of whether or not we go through with Brexit.

Carrying on in that vain, super majorities, say, 55%+ may have been a good idea in 2016, but to contest another referendum with that rule is problematic in the event Remain won but below that threshold. If polls are accurate, Remain would win comfortably, about 64% if May’s deal is rejected.

 

[Astute]

For a major change it’s usually 2/3 isn’t it? I get annoyed by the will of the people mantra and can see why this level of support either way is important to make major changes. I think a refurrendum should be once in a generation. This was an abdication of responsibility for me. Our elected representatives are paid to consider and then make decisions.

I almost feel like stopping any discussion until parliament has voted agianst the deal and then we will know a bit more

What I think is true is it’s May’s deal or no deal at this stage.

The thing is the May deal or no deal isn't as important as many like to make out.

I wish all sides would stop with project fear and start being truthful. But it isn't going to happen.

 

[Astute]

I don’t think we will ever again have the negotiating power with other countries or the influence in Europe that we have at the moment. We had to give up our empire and now we are withdrawing from the wealthiest and largest trading block in the world because a portion of the population doesn’t like the EU. Another step downwards.

Richest trading block?

Largest yes. Wealthiest no. Germany does well. Countries get into more debt with Germany. Germany lends and gives more money away. Countries buy more off Germany. Countries get into more debt with Germany......And so on.

So which countries in the EU are becoming wealthy and not having their debt increasing other than Germany?

 

[Grendel]

If polls are accurate, Remain would win comfortably, about 64% if May’s deal is rejected.

No they wouldn’t - that is an extraction of a data set that’s never going to be presented as an option

What you are trying to do is suggest we base a referendum on leave with the deal or stay as the only options - that would mean those who wish to leave but not on the deal are effectively excluded

The poll you refer to didn’t even add up the numbers correctly but actually showed little movement on remain / leave opinions.

If you think offering those two alternatives as an option on a referendum is legitimate your concept of democracy is deeply flawed

 

[Astute]

I’ve answered most of these questions in previous posts, but for your benefit.

The case for a second referendum is about deferring the decision to the electorate again because of the current dissatisfaction with May’s deal and the deadlock in parliament. It is entirely possible Leave wine again.

It’s not the case of ‘best of...’ referendums, but political contexts change which creates the demand for referendums. In this scenario, Brexit is a mess and the public should have the opportunity to have a final say. Down the line, if Brexit goes badly, there will be an appetite to rejoin the EU. Likewise, if it was reversed, a resurgent eurosceptic movement may demand another Brexit referendum down the line. I’ll say it again explicitly, this issue will not go away regardless of whether or not we go through with Brexit.

Carrying on in that vain, super majorities, say, 55%+ may have been a good idea in 2016, but to contest another referendum with that rule is problematic in the event Remain won but below that threshold. If polls are accurate, Remain would win comfortably, about 64% if May’s deal is rejected.

How do you know remain would even win? The polls said remain would win comfortably first time. Now you say at least 64%. That certainly isn't the case.

 

[Grendel]

How do you know remain would even win? The polls said remain would win comfortably first time. Now you say at least 64%. That certainly isn't the case.

He’s manipulating data Stalin style

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

How do you know remain would even win? The polls said remain would win comfortably first time. Now you say at least 64%. That certainly isn't the case.

He’s manipulating data Stalin style

I’m not a pollster, but here are their findings.

‘If Ms May’s deal is voted down by MPs, that gap widened to 64 per cent to 36 per cent, excluding don’t knows.’

Brexit poll shows voters back second referendum as Remain takes big lead over Leave

 

[Astute]

Yep, agreed. It should have had some kind of margin in it, bizarre that it didn’t (I don’t think Scottish independence vote had it either) but we are where we are.

Also agree that ‘the will the people’ is nonsense on so many levels as people for Remain and Leave for various different reasons, not all of which could be addressed in either scenario. Remain (not wanting change, enjoying the freedom of movement in the EU, fear). Leave (sovereignty, stopping freedom of movement, believeing their was a bigger/wider world to focus on) to name a few.

I was reading again about Mays deal and if my understanding is correct if we move into the backstop we continue to have access to the EU market with no quotas and not having to pay anything or accepting freedom of movement. If people cut out the noise around it I believe most of the public would go for that as a very worst case scenrio (until a trade deal was agreed and Irish border issue is resolved, which surely it will through technology in due course)

I don’t like the fact that we may have to accept new EU rules/laws without having a say whilst we are in it or the issues caused in relation to the union. However, let’s be honest, if the above is true there is little incentive in the EU allowing us to stay in the backstop for longer than necessary unless they introduced laws to intentionally damage the UK (extremely unlikely but if they did you breach the backstop unilaterally, argue your case and accept the consequences - undesirable but wouldn’t ever be necessary as mentioned above). If anything we might want to use it as leverage ourselves and stay in it until we finalise trade agreements which won’t be quick.

The backstop means everything stays the same until we leave. Nothing changes at all until we decide to leave ant the EU decides to let us leave. That is why the leavers don't want it at all. It would mean that we sign away our right to leave unless the EU says we could leave.

But remainers don't want it either as it means we have left although would remain until the EU says we could leave.

Isn't it amazing how differently two sides can see the same thing.

 

[Astute]

I’m not a pollster, but here are their findings.

‘If Ms May’s deal is voted down by MPs, that gap widened to 64 per cent to 36 per cent, excluding don’t knows.’

Brexit poll shows voters back second referendum as Remain takes big lead over Leave

Read your own link properly.

54% would vote remain and 46% would vote leave. And as they say it suggests......

Then it is down to who they ask and where. Ask in a leave area you should get a leave result. Ask in a remain area and you should get a remain answer.

But somehow you got to at least 64% would vote remain.

 

[Grendel]

I’m not a pollster, but here are their findings.

‘If Ms May’s deal is voted down by MPs, that gap widened to 64 per cent to 36 per cent, excluding don’t knows.’

Brexit poll shows voters back second referendum as Remain takes big lead over Leave

No - it’s manipulated data. The questions posed asked were numerous and the 64 - 36 is derived from an assumption based on the leavers who believe mays deal is not acceptable and then assuming they will abstain or remain

It’s a poll commissioned by people who want to remain and is shameless in data manipulation

The fact you’ve swallowed it hook line and sinker tells me a lot about your credibility in this debate

 

[CCFCSteve]

The backstop means everything stays the same until we leave. Nothing changes at all until we decide to leave ant the EU decides to let us leave. That is why the leavers don't want it at all. It would mean that we sign away our right to leave unless the EU says we could leave.

But remainers don't want it either as it means we have left although would remain until the EU says we could leave.

Isn't it amazing how differently two sides can see the same thing.

Because both sides are too entrenched in their view and neither will consider any compromise !

As I’ve read it, we don’t contribute to the EU if we’re in the backstop and don’t have to accept freedom of movement (and also out of the common fisheries policy). That’s not quite the same as we are !

I’d imagine that would cover a fair few leave voters (not all by any stretch) reasons for leaving even though this is only the withdrawal agreement (not final position).

Ps this is what annoys me about the whole thing, people are so entrenched in their views they will listen to the noise on either side rather looking at the detail

 

[Astute]

Because both sides are too entrenched in their view and neither will consider any compromise !

As I’ve read it, we don’t contribute to the EU if we’re in the backstop and don’t have to accept freedom of movement (and also out of the common fisheries policy). That’s not quite the same as we are !

I’d imagine that would cover a fair few leave voters (not all by any stretch) reasons for leaving even though this is only the withdrawal agreement (not final position).

Ps this is what annoys me about the whole thing, people are so entrenched in their views they will listen to the noise on either side rather looking at the detail

Agree with all other than payments to the EU. We will continue to pay into the EU until 2020 at least until the end of the transition period. This is backstop or no backstop. We had agreed to the EU budget until 2020 anyway so we're liable as such.

What happens after 2020 is debatable as nobody knows. It is all down to what is......or isn't negotiated.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Exactly like the: 'if you're not sure, just vote remain. You can always vote to leave next time'.

It's total nonsense and the public are smarter than you think when it comes to believing polls (remember last time). Certainly anything published by The Independent can hardly be trusted either really can it? It's just constant remainer rhetoric.

I literally haven't met a single leave voter who has changed their mind. A select bunch or remainers trying to call for a second vote just looks nothing other than childish.

My dad voted Leave then the day after said he'd made a mistake. We can all throw around anecdotes...