skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
You support astute and he thinks horses love horse racing. What’s the difference?
The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (144 Viewers)
- Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
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You support astute and he thinks horses love horse racing. What’s the difference?
Astute
Well-Known Member
You are a fucking arsehole. Reblocked.
Astute
Well-Known Member
What result?
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
It’s not my fault you post childish moronic shit.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Irony. You talked about skewed statistics whilst skewing statistics.
Labour and Conservative are guaranteed to get about 70% of the vote in every general election since WW2. The 2017 election has nothing to do with the referendum. That's an intellectually lazy and dishonest argument. Besides, those same elected MPs are about to reject May’s deal.
The detailed poll numbers still show more people want to Remain in the EU, with 46% compared to 39% for Leave — 54-46% when you take out the ‘don’t knows’. More people are in favour of the final decision being put to the public (41%) compared to 36% in favour of letting Parliament have the final say (your position). A Sky Data poll found similar findings, 53% in favour, 36% against. This is even before May's deal has been rejected in Parliament. The only poll at hand taking this into account found that 64% to 36% wanted a second referendum -- which is the closest thing to a Remain v no deal poll. 25,000+ for a poll is quite comprehensive as most polls have a sample about half that.
Look, if there were any polls that surveyed the general public found widespread support for a no-deal Brexit, or that was against holding a second referendum, we'd have known about it. Nigel Farage put a poll on the 'Leave Means Leave' Facebook page asking how people would vote knowing what they know now, 61% were in favour of Remain, 39% for Leave (735,000 took part). That's got to be straight out of a Monty Python sketch! Now, the Farage poll was there as a bit of fun before you get all serious with that one. Back to the point, The Leave Means Leave pressure group really ought to be conducting its own polls just like the People's Vote have. The only data out there in favour of a no-deal is from Conservative party members who are 57% in favour of no-deal Brexit (23% for May's deal, 15% Remain). But if you think 25,000 is a small sample, this sample size comes from a 1,215. Besides, party data is very biased because Labour members, who outnumber Tory members by 4.5 to 1, are almost unanimous in their support for remaining in the EU (88%) and 72% think Labour should fully support a second referendum. So lets put party membership data to the side.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum-poll-idUSKCN1P006O
Sky Data poll: 53% of British public want second EU referendum
Brexit poll shows voters back second referendum as Remain takes big lead over Leave
Farage’s New Poll Reveals Staggering Change in Opinion for the UK Remaining in the EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/04/most-tory-members-would-choose-no-deal-over-may-brexit-plan
Any result according to this methodology.
Astute
Well-Known Member
What are going on about?
Does this methodology produce reliable results? Which would be the proof of the pudding.
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
Blimey...2 weeks away...good to see that everyone given time has buried the proverbial hatchet over this Brexit thing. Shame to see that it is mostly in one & another's heads lol
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Astute
Well-Known Member
Why did the bookies offer massive odds in the last referendum?
Why do they get a lot of GE's totally wrong?
Then how do their polls supposedly mean solid proof?
Look at the polls. Several had undecided at 25% or more on leave or remain. That was last year. Do you think them polls were accurate? Are the only accurate ones those that say what you want them to say?
Ask people from Scotland, Ireland or south of England and you will most probably get remain. Ask elsewhere and you will most probably get leave. How do they design a poll of 2,000 people on where they live?
Or how about the YouGov poll that a leaver put on here that said just over 50% wanted to remain. But nearly 60% said we should continue with leaving the EU?
YouGov never included that same question again. Work that one out. I know you will.
Astute
Well-Known Member
The biggest decision for many years and to be decided by a bunch of idiots. Cameron has a lot to answer for.
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
I agree, he does. As do successive politicians who have walked us into the situation over many years. And so does the media after years of indoctrinating the masses with focused negative reporting about the EU. And so does the EU for the actions/inactions it is responsible for to pursuing it's ideals & perhaps ignoring/dismissing the impact on the man in the street.
The latter of courde can be levelled at politicians on all sides on pretty much all issues. Money is more important than people to them.
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clint van damme
Well-Known Member
these options should have been added in the first referendum, it would have put a lot of the current arguments to bed there and then.
Too late now unfortunately.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I don’t think that was a viable option then or now. If Parliament rejects the deal on the table, the likely outcome is a referendum on remaining in the EU and leaving (without a deal). Although that’s for the Government and electoral commission to sort out if it came to that.
May’s deal is pretty similar to the Norwegian model which Nigel Farage spent years campaigning for and he’s the politician that really brought this issue to the forefront of UK politics. Yet, a lot of Brexiteers in Parliament, namely Boris Johnson and Rees-Mogg, totally reject that arrangement (as do I, but for different reasons).
I’m an advocate of another referendum and the idea that’s somehow undemocratic is ridiculous. Another vote doesn’t guarantee a reversal of Brexit, and if we’re that committed to the Brexit on offer, the electorate will vote Leave again. Take the example of Norway, they’ve had two referendums on joining the EU and the electorate have rejected that twice.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So the idea of going against a public vote being undemocratic is ridiculous?
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
With another public vote? Yes. You know where I stand on this.
What next? Are elections that elect a new party going against a public vote a few years prior? No of course not because the public has changed its mind. Public opinion changes and at the minute, it’s in favour of a new referendum and remaining in the EU. In the future there could be a third or fourth referendum in my lifetime.
Explain to me how this is any different?
The process:
Public vote to leave, government goes away to negotiate that demand, government then asks the public what they make of said deal. Public decides for or against. That’s a perfectly legitimate democratic process.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Johnson was banging the drum for staying in the single market at one point.
That's why this leave mean leave rhetoric is absolute bollocks to me. I've said it repeatedly on here. You can see all sorts of different points of view on what leaving means from prominent leavers pre referendum if you look out their comments, I think that's contributed to the mess.
Problem now is, is it fair that people who voted remain should have a say on the final deal? I'm not so sure it is. That's why I think it should have been done at the time of the referendum.
Astute
Well-Known Member
We all know where you stand on the subject. But it doesn't make everyone who doesn't agree with you ridiculous.
A GE happens frequently. A referendum doesn't. But you now compare the two.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Anything that excludes any group of voters is preposterous. Besides, our voting is done by secret ballot so what’s stopping any one saying they voted Leave when they didn’t.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Disagreeing with a second referendum is a legitimate political position. However, calling a new referendum ‘undemocratic’, ‘undermining democracy’ or ‘Stalinist’ is a ridiculous stance.
Astute
Well-Known Member
Look at what I have said.
Ignoring a democratic vote is undemocratic. If there is a second referendum the first one will have been ignored.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
On that basis, the 2016 referendum is undemocratic because it ignored the referendum of 1975. But that’s a rather silly position to take, isn’t it?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
that's my point. It's too late now. It should have been done during the original ballot.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Is that somehow an argument against a second referendum?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
but the 1975 referendum was implemented, the 2016 vote won't be if we remain.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
yes, a second referendum before the result of the first one is even implemented is, in my opinion, an affront to democracy and will cause untold division in the country.
I think Brexit will be a disaster but I think it's something we're going to have to go through now and doing so is the lesser of two evils.
You put forward some well thought out arguments for a second referendum, but I'm not convinced.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
If we remained without a public vote, it would be a betrayal of democracy. If a second referendum voted to Remain, surely the fresher referendum is the most valid.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I agree, and my opinion on that outcome is the same as my opinion on a second referendum.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Desperate straw clutching
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Holding a second referendum will ‘cause’ untold division?
Looking at the current political climate, there’s so much division the only thing that can mend it is another vote. You have Tory backbencher who want to leave without a deal, there’s those who support Remain and a small % support May. You have Labour who have to tread the line between appeasing it’s traditional working class vote who voted to Leave and it’s membership who support Remain almost unanimously. You have the SNP using Brexit to justify calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence. A no deal Brexit could create a hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic which will cause all sorts of havoc and potentially a resumption of hostilities in NI — let’s not forget it hasn’t had a functioning government in nearly 2 years. There’s protesters outside parliament on the daily arguing for a second referendum and these new ‘yellow vest’ protesters outside Parliament. The country is already divided.
A second referendum probably the best bet we actually have to unify the country.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
that's a very naïve statement if you ask me. Yes there is a lot of division caused by the first vote, to not implement it will send things to another level.
We're also seeing a rise in fascism as it is. Imagine how they would be able to use the vote not being implemented to their advantage, it doesn't bear thinking about.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Jesus wept
SIR ERNIE
Well-Known Member
There is so much division as you put it because 76% of MPs voted remain. They don’t want to implement the Leave vote. They are determined to overturn the result by whatever means.
And whilst I’ve criticised May and her ‘negotiating’ team, you do have to look at Labour MPs who represent ‘leave’ areas in the midlands and north, yet openly continue to fight the remain cause. The fact that at the time of the referendum, out of 227 Labour MPs only 10 voted leave, tells you everything you need to know about the reasons Parliament is deadlocked.
And as an aside, full credit to Clint for his principled position on a second referendum.
Astute
Well-Known Member
The referendum in 1975? The one for the common market?
The 2016 referendum on leaving the EU was the first referendum with anything to do with the EU. We had the choice to stay in the common market or not. In 2016 we had the choice to stay in the EU or not.
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
I think Brexit is a really bad idea, but I think it's a worse idea to simply ignore what the electorate said in 2016.
The reason I think it will cause so much division is because the 'face' of the People's Vote/Second Referendum is a bunch of London-centric career politicians who are worried that their gravy train of unlimited expenses, and side jobs in centrist think-tanks are at risk.
It smacks of being out of touch with a population that has already suffered enough thanks to 8 years of unnecessary austerity.
I'm not saying I know what the solution is, as I don't think there is one because of how poorly planned/managed the referendum and everything that happened since has been.
If there is to be a push for a 2nd vote - then they need to change the people at the forefront of it.