The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (25 Viewers)

[Astute]

This was the original post, but there followed a discussion on why the GE wouldn't be the same. The P'Boro by-election pretty much proved my points to the letter



As I said in those posts, I expected Brexit to pick up a decent amount of votes, just not seats. I thought they'd be very similar to UKIP.

There has been a massive swing away from the main parties in this by-election but with Brexit having such a success in the area only a few weeks ago (that voted 61% leave) and still being fresh in the mind and this only being a by-election and thus wouldn't radically alter the power set-up in Westminster this was probably as good an opportunity as Brexit could hope for to win a seat. They didn't, even though they got close.

In a proper general election which may not occur for a few years I expect a bit more of the Brexit support to leach back to the main parties over that time.

However you are right in that the main parties should see this as a wake-up call rather than getting complacent. Neither performed well (but still managed to win).

But does a 2% win prove a point? It was just 683 votes. The only point proven is that it will be very close in many areas.

 

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It proves my point on this thread. Brexit won the EU election in the area with more than double the votes of its nearest rival. A few weeks later they didn't win the seat in a by-election. UKIP got close in a number of seats last time, but getting close isn't winning.

It couldn't be proven without a full GE, but all the points I made regarding why a GE would be different to the EU election can all be shown to some degree in this by-election result.

 

[Astute]

It proves my point on this thread. Brexit won the EU election in the area with more than double the votes of its nearest rival. A few weeks later they didn't win the seat in a by-election. UKIP got close in a number of seats last time, but getting close isn't winning.

It couldn't be proven without a full GE, but all the points I made regarding why a GE would be different to the EU election can all be shown to some degree in this by-election result.

If you look at the facts in the direction you nominated yes you are correct.

But you failed to mention that the Labour vote went from 48% to just 31%. That is losing just over 1/3 of their voters. Yet you consider it to be a victory for Labour. Labour only won by 683 votes in an area where they got nearly half the votes last time. Try putting this into the seats which were close last time. You then get a very different story.

But some try to make out I am wrong to be worried.

This election has proven nothing we didn't already know. We have a massively split electorate. Yes some will vote Labour whatever. Some will vote Tory whatever. The rest are there to be convinced.

So we know who to vote for if we want to leave the EU. But who do we vote for if we want to remain in the EU?

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

If you look at the facts in the direction you nominated yes you are correct.

But you failed to mention that the Labour vote went from 48% to just 31%. That is losing just over 1/3 of their voters. Yet you consider it to be a victory for Labour. Labour only won by 683 votes in an area where they got nearly half the votes last time. Try putting this into the seats which were close last time. You then get a very different story.

But some try to make out I am wrong to be worried.

This election has proven nothing we didn't already know. We have a massively split electorate. Yes some will vote Labour whatever. Some will vote Tory whatever. The rest are there to be convinced.

So we know who to vote for if we want to leave the EU. But who do we vote for if we want to remain in the EU?

As I said Labour (and the Tories) need to take heed of this. Their loss of percentage of the votes should be very worrying to them.

But Peterboro was a very strongly pro-leave area. In the EU elections Brexit polled over twice as many votes as their nearest rival. They're currently on the crest of a media wave after the EU election results and haven't yet been put under the scrutiny they could expect in terms of policies/manifesto/legal set-up. With a bit more time to reduce the initial fervour and for journalists to investigate and reveal things about the 'party' the clamour for them may subside a bit.

We can put this into other seats but again you've then got to look at the make-up of those seats - each will be different. How strongly pro/anti Brexit are they according to the referendum etc?

I'm not saying you're wrong to be worried. I was just showing that this particular snapshot backed-up my assertion to the the original poster who said Brexit would get loads of seats that it wouldn't be that simple.

As for who to vote for to Remain I can't answer that because it's so split. Lib Dems and Greens are obviously for it but the two main parties are difficult because even more than the others rather than principles they make policy based on what will get votes. I think a few of the Tory MP's realise the potential economic damage but aren't willing to risk votes or upsetting the more jingoistic part of their party. I think many of the Labour MP's want to side with remain, but are in the quandary that much of their base is in large urban areas, but these are in the main the areas that most strongly voted leave. Plus Corbyn in charge won't lead to effective campaigning as it's not something he strongly believes in.

 

[Astute]

As I said Labour (and the Tories) need to take heed of this. Their loss of percentage of the votes should be very worrying to them.

But Peterboro was a very strongly pro-leave area. In the EU elections Brexit polled over twice as many votes as their nearest rival. They're currently on the crest of a media wave after the EU election results and haven't yet been put under the scrutiny they could expect in terms of policies/manifesto/legal set-up. With a bit more time to reduce the initial fervour and for journalists to investigate and reveal things about the 'party' the clamour for them may subside a bit.

We can put this into other seats but again you've then got to look at the make-up of those seats - each will be different. How strongly pro/anti Brexit are they according to the referendum etc?

I'm not saying you're wrong to be worried. I was just showing that this particular snapshot backed-up my assertion to the the original poster who said Brexit would get loads of seats that it wouldn't be that simple.

As for who to vote for to Remain I can't answer that because it's so split. Lib Dems and Greens are obviously for it but the two main parties are difficult because even more than the others rather than principles they make policy based on what will get votes. I think a few of the Tory MP's realise the potential economic damage but aren't willing to risk votes or upsetting the more jingoistic part of their party. I think many of the Labour MP's want to side with remain, but are in the quandary that much of their base is in large urban areas, but these are in the main the areas that most strongly voted leave. Plus Corbyn in charge won't lead to effective campaigning as it's not something he strongly believes in.

What you have done here is fully agree with what I have been saying for ages but have worded it a little different.

And as you have said in this post we don't know what will happen.

We don't even know if the Tory voters would return when it came down to the seriousness of another GE. Would they be able to bring themselves to vote for either Corbyn or Farage? A lot of it would come down to who they replace May with. And now May has gone it is something that will happen soon.

 

[Ian1779]

Once the new Tory leader is in place it will give an idea of the party stance re: Brexit. Until then if I was I charge of Labour I would not make a commitment in any direction, but instead keep focusing on their policies on the NHS, education, austerity etc.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If you look at the facts in the direction you nominated yes you are correct.

But you failed to mention that the Labour vote went from 48% to just 31%. That is losing just over 1/3 of their voters. Yet you consider it to be a victory for Labour. Labour only won by 683 votes in an area where they got nearly half the votes last time. Try putting this into the seats which were close last time. You then get a very different story.

But some try to make out I am wrong to be worried.

This election has proven nothing we didn't already know. We have a massively split electorate. Yes some will vote Labour whatever. Some will vote Tory whatever. The rest are there to be convinced.

So we know who to vote for if we want to leave the EU. But who do we vote for if we want to remain in the EU?

The winning margin was the same as last time. The Tories lost large numbers to Farage’s ego trip and Labour lost smaller numbers to the Dems. They’d both be bonkers to call an election before they have to.

 

[Astute]

The winning margin was the same as last time. The Tories lost large numbers to Farage’s ego trip and Labour lost smaller numbers to the Dems. They’d both be bonkers to call an election before they have to.

Is this agreeing or disagreeing with me?

The winning margin may have been similar. But not if you are a Tory. But the Labour and Tory vote was nearly halved and the majority of the lost votes went to Farage. And Brexit replaced the Tories as very close runner up.

 

[skybluetony176]

Is this agreeing or disagreeing with me?

The winning margin may have been similar. But not if you are a Tory. But the Labour and Tory vote was nearly halved and the majority of the lost votes went to Farage. And Brexit replaced the Tories as very close runner up.

You’re not considering the reduced turnout. If Labour and Conservatives each lost half their vote Brexit Ltd would have a sitting MP right now.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Is this agreeing or disagreeing with me?

The winning margin may have been similar. But not if you are a Tory. But the Labour and Tory vote was nearly halved and the majority of the lost votes went to Farage. And Brexit replaced the Tories as very close runner up.

Overall turnout down 15,000 on the general election. Domestic politics will be on the back burner as long as Brexit isn't settled. And as long as that is the case, both parties would be insane to want a GE-which is why Corbyn must stand aside if he keeps insisting on it

 

[Ian1779]

Overall turnout down 15,000 on the general election. Domestic politics will be on the back burner as long as Brexit isn't settled. And as long as that is the case, both parties would be insane to want a GE-which is why Corbyn must stand aside if he keeps insisting on it

It’s mid cycle... by-election turnouts are notoriously low... and this was one of the better ones.

Yes you would probably be right about a GE causing havoc to both parties, but when you look at the impending possibility of Boris being the next PM - calling for an election is the only means of possibly stopping his no-deal Brexit plans.

This could be gained through a motion of no-confidence in PM if Remainer Tory’s back it (although still unlikely).

Other than that -you can have all the PV marches you like, strongly worded letters and even if Labour came over to Remain it won’t do shit. Unless there is a GE we will be out on our arses without a deal come October.

Suggesting Corbyn stand aside for insisting on one means you haven’t really thought this through. Unless of course you think the Tories will elect another remain PM.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Labour motion rejected...

 

[Ian1779]

Labour motion rejected...

So it’s either a no deal or Tory MP’s bringing down their own government to stop it.

 

[skybluetony176]

So much for the WTO brexit not effecting the Irish border Ireland 'will need no-deal border checks'

 

[skybluetony176]

Labour motion rejected...

Would have got through as well if not for Labour rebels. Oh and a certain Tory leadership candidate who’s always said he would vote to block no deal and didn’t.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It’s mid cycle... by-election turnouts are notoriously low... and this was one of the better ones.

Yes you would probably be right about a GE causing havoc to both parties, but when you look at the impending possibility of Boris being the next PM - calling for an election is the only means of possibly stopping his no-deal Brexit plans.

This could be gained through a motion of no-confidence in PM if Remainer Tory’s back it (although still unlikely).

Other than that -you can have all the PV marches you like, strongly worded letters and even if Labour came over to Remain it won’t do shit. Unless there is a GE we will be out on our arses without a deal come October.

Suggesting Corbyn stand aside for insisting on one means you haven’t really thought this through. Unless of course you think the Tories will elect another remain PM.

I voted for Corbyn’s leadership twice but he has seriously got this one wrong. Nobody wants another election and the party would be mauled at the polls for bringing one about. Put no deal up against Remain and let it be binding-then bring the madness to an end

 

[Ian1779]

Well if you want that to happen the only way it will is via a GE. Otherwise you are getting a no-deal Brexit thanks to Boris, and he may just chuck in proroguing Parliament just for good measure.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

I voted for Corbyn’s leadership twice but he has seriously got this one wrong. Nobody wants another election and the party would be mauled at the polls for bringing one about. Put no deal up against Remain and let it be binding-then bring the madness to an end

Why would remain be in any vote? No deal or the new PM's deal it would be

 

[SkyblueBazza]

It's no wonder 1. Nobody knows what to believe & 2. Why the BBC is accused of bias...

UK firms 'not even close to ready' for no deal

UK government in 'pretty good shape' for no-deal Brexit - top official - Reuters

The latter by our very own top civil servant didn't get any coverage on the BBC website. It's all very divisive.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[skybluetony176]

The latter by our very own top civil servant didn't get any coverage on the BBC website. It's all very divisive.

Fake news UK government in good shape for no deal - cabinet secretary

 

[martcov]

‘Mini-Trump across the Channel’: EU media on Boris Johnson as British PM | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

BoJo the clown is not highly regarded in the EU.

 

[martcov]

It's no wonder 1. Nobody knows what to believe & 2. Why the BBC is accused of bias...

UK firms 'not even close to ready' for no deal

UK government in 'pretty good shape' for no-deal Brexit - top official - Reuters

The latter by our very own top civil servant didn't get any coverage on the BBC website. It's all very divisive.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Government employee says government employees well prepared.

 

[martcov]

Fake news UK government in good shape for no deal - cabinet secretary

This is the UK Selmayr, appointed, not by a college of 3 under a dodgy construction, but by May alone and without consultation. Described as „May’s loyal lieutenant“ at the time. Cannot be sacked in the normal course of business. Can be expected to deliver non critical pro Tory rhetoric until he retires. Even under a future labour government.

 

[SIR ERNIE]

‘Mini-Trump across the Channel’: EU media on Boris Johnson as British PM | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

BoJo the clown is not highly regarded in the EU.

good

 

[clint van damme]

good

do you seriously rate him?

 

[SkyblueBazza]

good

Not sure he is highly regarded by the British public either other than being a bit different & a bit of a laugh

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[SkyblueBazza]

Fake news UK government in good shape for no deal - cabinet secretary

That's weird. I looked for anything about it on the BBC news 'Brexit' page.
Ah well, thans Tony - I stand corrected

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[skybluetony176]

That's weird. I looked for anything about it on the BBC news 'Brexit' page.
Ah well, thans Tony - I stand corrected

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Did you look under the politics section? It’s slid down the politics page as the day went on but when I first read it at lunchtime yesterday it was one of the lead stories at the top of the page.

 

[skybluetony176]

I have to say though that it confirms one of my theories about brexit snowflake righties. Unless it’s got a big picture with the headline it either isn’t true or never existed. I’m getting the impression that righty snowflakes conspiracy theories around BBC impartiality or lack there of is based on not being intelligent enough to read any headline that isn’t accompanied by a picture. Hence they rely on Facebook for “news” and end up forming opinions on bullshit promoted by people with a vested interest in getting people to believe said bullshit. Dangerous times.

 

[skybluetony176]

‘Mini-Trump across the Channel’: EU media on Boris Johnson as British PM | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

BoJo the clown is not highly regarded in the EU.

This about sums it up “Chris Patten, who described the favourite to become Britain’s next prime minister as “Trump’s poodle: a liar who does not pay attention to the detail of reality, tells people what they want to hear and relies on their ignorance”.”

 

[SIR ERNIE]

do you seriously rate him?

No I don’t rate him Clint, in fact I never believed he could become PM but it does now look the probable outcome.
On the basis that he or Raab are most likely to deliver Brexit and have the best chance of keeping Corbyn out of no.10, they’d be my choice from a pathetic bunch.
The EU is run by a bunch of washed up political lightweights and supported by the likes of the feeble Macron, so criticism from that quarter counts for nothing.

 

[skybluetony176]

I’m not sure where this notion that he can keep Corbyn out of No 10 comes from. He’s a divisive character. He divides the sitting government, he won’t necessarily divide the Tory membership but he certainly divides the country. If anything he makes Corbyn more likely to get in to No 10. In coalition with the Lib Dem’s would be my guess with a second referendum being what makes a coalition possible.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I’m not sure where this notion that he can keep Corbyn out of No 10 comes from. He’s a divisive character. He divides the sitting government, he won’t necessarily divide the Tory membership but he certainly divides the country. If anything he makes Corbyn more likely to get in to No 10. In coalition with the Lib Dem’s would be my guess with a second referendum being what makes a coalition possible.

Given he's still popular, you wonder what he has to do not to be popular, though! I'd say it depends on how much the press want to dig, and how much they want to release... Thatcher showed that you could be deeply unpopular among half the country, as long as the other half loved you.

tbh, I thought he had enough enemies in the parliamentary party that he wouldn't even make the top two, but that seems an entirely wrong assumption on my part!

 

[skybluetony176]

Given he's still popular, you wonder what he has to do not to be popular, though! I'd say it depends on how much the press want to dig, and how much they want to release... Thatcher showed that you could be deeply unpopular among half the country, as long as the other half loved you.

tbh, I thought he had enough enemies in the parliamentary party that he wouldn't even make the top two, but that seems an entirely wrong assumption on my part!

Fair point regarding Thatcher.

 

[Sick Boy]

No I don’t rate him Clint, in fact I never believed he could become PM but it does now look the probable outcome.
On the basis that he or Raab are most likely to deliver Brexit and have the best chance of keeping Corbyn out of no.10, they’d be my choice from a pathetic bunch.
The EU is run by a bunch of washed up political lightweights and supported by the likes of the feeble Macron, so criticism from that quarter counts for nothing.

Considering that May was supposed to be a safe choice and was a dead cert to destroy Corbyn, I think Johnson has even less chance. He’d be a liability waiting to happen.