The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (86 Viewers)

[Astute]

Yes, I work in a field related to automotive emissions.

How what was a small thing? I have never tried to change history, I’ve gone out of my way to engage in the conversations and stated facts.


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So was the biggest problem for JLR their diesel engines or not?

 

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[djr8369]

I blocked you because of the bullshit you kept coming out with. And that wasn't just a few weeks ago. I put your posts back on a couple of months ago and you was still coming out with the same bullshit then.

Hasn't happened? All the things I mentioned were supposed to have happened if there was a leave vote. It wasn't if and when we left.

So do you not have a clue about what you make out you know about or are you just trying to twist the truth?

What bullshit? I’ve commented on this thread fairly infrequently and rarely engaged with you directly so I’d be interested to hear what was such bullshit.

No some of the things were if there was a leave vote (emergency budget) some of we actually leave. Think you’re being disingenuous there so it seems to be you who is twisting the truth. Your position is what, that some negative consequences didn’t happen yet so there can be no negative consequences to Brexit?


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[djr8369]

So was the biggest problem for JLR their diesel engines or not?

No biggest problem is China sales.

Was this conversation about what their biggest problem is or if Brexit was one of their problems?


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[Sick Boy]

Isn't it amazing how I got ripped to bits by certain people on here for saying exactly the same about Corbyn and his way of leading Labour.

I will now sit back and watch you get exactly the same.

Or do we just see more utter bias?

There are hardly any hardcore Corbyn supporters on this thread.

 

[Sick Boy]

We would have had a stronger hand if we would have negotiated. Anything would have been stronger than being dictated to.

A bit like you. House prices being astronomical in the UK is all the fault of the UK government but too high in France.....even though they are much lower than the UK in the most of France because people like myself have moved to France or bought holiday homes.

That one was cool. The fault of the UK government if in the UK but the fault of those from the UK if in another EU country. Yet you will still deny your total bias.

It shows you have much less insight into French attitudes than you like to think then. The suggestion that areas of the country would collapse if it wasn’t for the British is absurd .

 

[Grendel]

No. Some of this information is taken from public knowledge (27 scenarios) some of it from internal emails (1.2 BN - although I think this might have been publicly stated but I’m not certain). The emissions specific stuff has also all been in the news but is also the field I work in.


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The Eu impact for leaving was marginal on JLR on its overall business.

In fact any deterioration of currency would be of benefit

 

[Grendel]

No biggest problem is China sales.

Was this conversation about what their biggest problem is or if Brexit was one of their problems?


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It wasn’t a problem as some of the impacts of Brexit would be s benefit

 

[djr8369]

The Eu impact for leaving was marginal on JLR on its overall business.

In fact any deterioration of currency would be of benefit

What’s your source for this? How much would currency need to fall to cover this? How much would the supply chain need to be adjusted to gain any benefit from currency fluctuations? What happens if currency reverts back to historic levels?


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[Grendel]

What’s your source for this? How much would currency need to fall to cover this? How much would the supply chain need to be adjusted to gain any benefit from currency fluctuations? What happens if currency reverts back to historic levels?


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The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real

 

[djr8369]

The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real

Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


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[djr8369]

Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


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Typo, last sentence is supposed to say last quarter not last year!


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[djr8369]

The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real

Quite ironic that currency fluctuations were one of the “project fear” predictions. I suppose Raab will be telling us soon that currency fluctuations are what we voted for.


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[Grendel]

Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


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I worked there.

The diesel impact of course was huge as well as the business had heavily invested in diesel technology and has very few competitive petrol options

Also the product offering was questionable - not offering differentiation and largely substituting sakes and the technology investment huge which meant many models have questionable per unit returns

The only added headache brexit would have caused is cash flow - if it was unplanned- but the problems that existed and would be its biggest challenges are non Brexit related. In fact if your going to be very picky if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.

Of course it will be cited as a reason as the business would want to secure government financing - which it has every right to do - but look across Europe and the Jon losses through Central Europe to show its a consistent message everywhere

 

[Grendel]

Typo, last sentence is supposed to say last quarter not last year!


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Eh now I am confused the company made £120 million profit in q4 after transformation costs

 

[djr8369]

I worked there.

The diesel impact of course was huge as well as the business had heavily invested in diesel technology and has very few competitive petrol options

Also the product offering was questionable - not offering differentiation and largely substituting sakes and the technology investment huge which meant many models have questionable per unit returns

The only added headache brexit would have caused is cash flow - if it was unplanned- but the problems that existed and would be its biggest challenges are non Brexit related. In fact if your going to be very picky if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.

Of course it will be cited as a reason as the business would want to secure government financing - which it has every right to do - but look across Europe and the Jon losses through Central Europe to show its a consistent message everywhere

If you were working there last year maybe you are aware that the companies stance is Brexit will cost 1.2BN in tariffs?

While your other points are all valid I’m not convinced Brexit will be such a non issue. Under what tariffs and trading arrangements? And how will JIT supply chains cope with the sudden change?




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[Grendel]

If you were working there last year maybe you are aware that the companies stance is Brexit will cost 1.2BN in tariffs?

While your other points are all valid I’m not convinced Brexit will be such a non issue. Under what tariffs and trading arrangements? And how will JIT supply chains cope with the sudden change?




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I worked there until a couple of months ago - I’m fully aware of the real situation

 

[djr8369]

Eh now I am confused the company made £120 million profit in q4 after transformation costs

Indeed I meant it as in last q reported (1st one of this year) rather than last one of last year.


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[djr8369]

I worked there until a couple of months ago - I’m fully aware of the real situation

What is the real situation then and how are you aware of it? Are you suggesting the company is wrong or lying?


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[Grendel]

Indeed I meant it as in last q reported (1st one of this year) rather than last one of last year.


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Which was pretty much in line with expectations and nothing Brexit related

 

[Grendel]

What is the real situation then and how are you aware of it? Are you suggesting the company is wrong or lying?


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Neither but like all businesses headlines are always there to get a result

 

[djr8369]

if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.

Might be employing more but as it’s cheaper to manufacture in Europe how would that help cost base? And would the same level of growth have been achieved?




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[Grendel]

The £395 million wasn’t a lie just not the whole picture

 

[djr8369]

Neither but like all businesses headlines are always there to get a result

What result would that be? That would also still be lying? While the company has been publicly anti Brexit this was more related to the internal email that stated tariffs would cost 1.2BN and make the business untenable. In public the comments have been less severe and more ambiguous about the outcome.


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[Grendel]

Might be employing more but as it’s cheaper to manufacture in Europe how would that help cost base? And would the same level of growth have been achieved?




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Well the growth has little to do with the European plants - labour is of course cheap and cost cheap but what I’m saying is without that availability the company would have had to look at other ways to make the market equation work

 

[Grendel]

What result would that be? That would also still be lying? While the company has been publicly anti Brexit this was more related to the internal email that stated tariffs would cost 1.2BN and make the business untenable. In public the comments have been less severe and more ambiguous about the outcome.


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Of course it’s not lying - you can run scenarios and come up with different figures can’t you - worst / best case etc

And again if we are going to indulge in semantics the companies profit impact alone from the current hit in 2016 has made significant financial benefits and has helped the cash flow over the subsequent 3 years

 

[djr8369]

Well the growth has little to do with the European plants - labour is of course cheap and cost cheap but what I’m saying is without that availability the company would have had to look at other ways to make the market equation work

I was more thinking growth over the last decade with access to SM. European plants are obviously very recent so limited effect.

Ok but you must acknowledge thats a very optimistic take.


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[Grendel]

I was more thinking growth over the last decade with access to SM. European plants are obviously very recent so limited effect.

Ok but you must acknowledge thats a very optimistic take.


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I don’t think in the case if the company we are talking about the single market has st all been positive

It’s allowed the company to look far more at supplier bases through Europe and has been at the detriment of uk potential suppliers

 

[djr8369]

Of course it’s not lying - you can run scenarios and come up with different figures can’t you - worst / best case etc

And again if we are going to indulge in semantics the companies profit impact alone from the current hit in 2016 has made significant financial benefits and has helped the cash flow over the subsequent 3 years

Well if the company are telling staff the tariffs costs of no deal are 1.2BN and you’re saying the effects wouldn’t make any difference that’s quite a disparity. What result are you suggesting they wanted from any headlines?


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[djr8369]

I don’t think in the case if the company we are talking about the single market has st all been positive

It’s allowed the company to look far more at supplier bases through Europe and has been at the detriment of uk potential suppliers

Perhaps but that’s has also given it more options which can mean cost savings or improved quality. I’m not sure how you are coming to the conclusion that them being forced to use the U.K. more would have helped the cost base?

As I’m sure you’re aware JLR has still used U.K. suppliers when appropriate and invested in its U.K. supply chains.


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[djr8369]

EU thread hijacked by detailed civilised discussion shock.


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[Grendel]

Well if the company are telling staff the tariffs costs of no deal are 1.2BN and you’re saying the effects wouldn’t make any difference that’s quite a disparity. What result are you suggesting they wanted from any headlines?


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The most negative possible for obvious reasons

 

[djr8369]

The most negative possible for obvious reasons

JLR wanted a negative result? What obvious reason?


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[Grendel]

Perhaps but that’s has also given it more options which can mean cost savings or improved quality. I’m not sure how you are coming to the conclusion that them being forced to use the U.K. more would have helped the cost base?

As I’m sure you’re aware JLR has still used U.K. suppliers when appropriate and invested in its U.K. supply chains.


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I’m saying that you can’t just make a blind statement based off one point in time to see if things are good or bad.

When I worked just in jaguar and the euro was on its arse we were in massive financial trouble as in the uk for example German retailers were ordering RHD product and selling it back to the uk cheaper then the uk NSC could supply retailers

The rules at the time meant you could not stop it. Northern island would not have a single retailer of any description if every manufacturer did not prop up every sale they made and the EU did nothing to intervene

 

[Grendel]

JLR wanted a negative result? What obvious reason?


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WCS results are of course useful for reasons I hope I don’t have to spell out

 

[martcov]

We were dictated to because we allowed it to happen. This is why it was all very one sided.

Maybe it was all part of the plan to keep us in.

We will never know.

The EU see it differently. They made an offer via Tusk. May rejected and laid down the UK red lines. 28 countries agreed to the deal.