The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (123 Viewers)

[Grendel]

Are you looking at polls which just show voter intention and extrapolating that into a seat majority? As anything I’ve seen where it’s broken down by Seat makes it look a lot tighter.


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Polls in the MOS - it’s exactly what o would expect though

The issue will be Scotland where they lose seats now but there’s no way they will lose ground in the rest of the uk and will strengthen in many areas.

Corbyn has the worst rating in political history as a leader. He has no clear message on the big issue.

If he calls an election they will have done some significant research to be confident they have a good chance of winning.

 

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[djr8369]

If he calls an election they will have done some significant research to be confident they have a good chance of winning.

I don’t doubt it and I’m sure they also intend to bend/break the rules while thinking they’ll win and burry and investigation later.



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[Grendel]

Of course but even plenty of leave voters consider no deal toxic.



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Most will still vote for the party that offered leave - no one who wants to leave will vote for Swinson

The northern seats for labour are furious with labour for a Brexit betrayal and those seats might be vulnerable

 

[Grendel]

I don’t doubt it and I’m sure they also intend to bend/break the rules while thinking they’ll win and burry and investigation later.



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All parties bend and break spending rules. Stop playing the victim

 

[Deleted member 5849]

If he calls an election they will have done some significant research to be confident they have a good chance of winning.

Thing is, the swing during a campaign can throw things. Milliband was supposed to be leading a minority government, then May was supposed to be increasing her majority - neither played out.

Corbyn, meanwhile, did surprisingly well on the campaign trail, where he was energised and focussed - an election stopped the dithering, and allowed for a clear message to come through where previously it hadn't.

The Lib Dems are the curveball too, in that they have a clear anti-Brexit message, but how many left leaning voters would put that ahead of their betrayal as part of the coalition government? Greens too, might see it as a chance to break through to a degree, but have limited credibility.

Throw all those into the mix, and an election could go any way. It could see a 100+ majority for Cons, or it could see a welling up of anti-Con feeling, and see them struggle to maintain what they have at the moment.

 

[djr8369]

All parties bend and break spending rules. Stop playing the victim

Not to that extent and you know it. You can’t downplay that as me playing the victim, it’s just an observation.


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[Astute]

Yeah, right.

Yeah right? Great response. So what part of my post was incorrect?

Are you saying that the link you provided doesn't contradict what you have been saying or is it that Shmmeee didn't say May did an amazing job....or that you didn't agree with him?

So which part was wrong then?

 

[Sick Boy]

They won’t be doing that

The greens did last time.

 

[Grendel]

The greens did last time.

The greens in a general election are an irrelevance and their vote would probably go to the undems anyway and there is no way that they will form a pre election pact with labour

It now seems that labour will refuse the election so despite Tony and BSB insisting the government can call one they cannot

 

[Sick Boy]

Yeah right? Great response. So what part of my post was incorrect?

Are you saying that the link you provided doesn't contradict what you have been saying or is it that Shmmeee didn't say May did an amazing job....or that you didn't agree with him?

So which part was wrong then?

So liking a post is a full on endorsement now? That took a full 15 seconds to find.

 

[skybluetony176]

The greens in a general election are an irrelevance and their vote would probably go to the undems anyway and there is no way that they will form a pre election pact with labour

It now seems that labour will refuse the election so despite Tony and BSB insisting the government can call one they cannot

Someone has changed their tune again. Only yesterday you were confirming that the government can call an election and denied saying that only the opposition could call one.

We both also pointed out to you that the government needs a two thirds majority in the commons to call an election in reply to you claiming that there was no mechanism for the government to call an election and it was only the opposition that could. There was no insisting of anything, just a correcting of your misinformation. Something you flip flopped less than 24hrs ago to confirm, before flip flopping back again.

 

[skybluetony176]

Because it can also be done if 2/3 of the Commons agree to the motion. Corbyn wanted one as well so it happened. G has it wrong yet again

See. This is Brighton’s initial response to your claim.

 

[skybluetony176]

Correct. The government can put it to the commons to a vote and a two thirds majority will trigger a general election which is what May did. The opposition can’t do this. The opposition can only force a general election through a vote of no confidence.

So when Grendull says it’s for the opposition to call an election because of the fixed term parliament act he’s being disingenuous. As is Boris when he claimed he wants and believes that he can do a deal. If he had the conviction of his words he’d be looking to call for a democratic vote in Parliament to put parliament to the democratic vote of the people. Instead a PM that only 0.3% of the population voted for is doing the least democratic thing he can.

Here’s my reply to Brighton. Agreeing with him and confirming both scenarios in which an early election can be called.

 

[Grendel]

Someone has changed their tune again. Only yesterday you were confirming that the government can call an election and denied saying that only the opposition could call one.

We both also pointed out to you that the government needs a two thirds majority in the commons to call an election in reply to you claiming that there was no mechanism for the government to call an election and it was only the opposition that could. There was no insisting of anything, just a correcting of your misinformation. Something you flip flopped less than 24hrs ago to confirm, before flip flopping back again.

No Tony I didn’t.

I also have pointed out how the government can get around this if they wish. Oh and regarding your 25 day rule Laura Keunsberg in an interview with a political expert has said the PM is in total control of the election date due to the way the legislation is worded and can even agree an early election and then change it.

 

[skybluetony176]

No Tony I didn’t.

I also have pointed out how the government can get around this if they wish. Oh and regarding your 25 day rule Laura Keunsberg in an interview with a political expert has said the PM is in total control of the election date due to the way the legislation is worded and can even agree an early election and then change it.

Yes you did. I quoted your posts again just yesterday where you claimed it was only the opposition that could trigger one under the fixed term parliament act. My response was how did May do it? At which point Brighton jumped in with his reply quoted again above. It’s your words against your words I’m afraid, not mine.

 

[Grendel]

Yes you did. I quoted your posts again just yesterday where you claimed it was only the opposition that could trigger one under the fixed term parliament act. My response was how did May do it? At which point Brighton jumped in with his reply quoted again above. It’s your words against your words I’m afraid, not mine.

It is only the opposition through a no confidence vote. May didn’t trigger an election that was beyond her powers she had to request one,

No wonder astute has a field day with you. Your comprehension levels are zero

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Hopefully the brexit party and tories can come together to stop Corbyn if we have another GE

 

[skybluetony176]

It is only the opposition through a no confidence vote. May didn’t trigger an election that was beyond her powers she had to request one,

No wonder astute has a field day with you. Your comprehension levels are zero

Which is not what you said and what both me and Brighton told you from the start when you claimed otherwise. Again it’s your words against yours. Ironically you bring astute into it when just last week he disagreed with a number of posters and then when FP said the same thing to him he said FP was right and then promptly went back to telling everyone that they were wrong despite just agreeing with what they’d said when a different poster said it. You’re two peas from the same pod.

 

[Astute]

So liking a post is a full on endorsement now? That took a full 15 seconds to find.

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Posts back in 2016 took seconds to find

Both them quotes are from personal views. No lies involved. They said what they felt. And I have continually said about what other peeple feel or what it does to them. You liked posts with lies in them.

That is the difference between the two of us.

 

[Grendel]

Hopefully the brexit party and tories can come together to stop Corbyn if we have another GE

I suspect Johnson will offer the Brexit party a free run at some labour areas where there there’s a huge desire for Brexit so he can get a few Parliament seats

I do think there is a possibility we may see the absurd situation of Johnson not getting an election - as he can’t do that - and then whipping all of his MPs in a no confidence motion against himself and the absurd sight of Corbyn opposing it.

Some experts (not Tony) believe if that happens it’s actually possible under the act for Johnson to ignore the no Brexit legislation if passed and to reform his own government again as the opposition have declared confidence in it

 

[Grendel]

I think Tony should replace Andrew Marr and we have the Tony show - he seems to know more than every political and constitutional expert I’ve read up on in the last few days

 

[Evo1883]

Going off the referendum, 70% of conservative constituencies voted leave and 60% of Labour constituencies voted leave, doesn't bode well for corbyn if a general election is based on brexit

 

[Astute]

It is only the opposition through a no confidence vote. May didn’t trigger an election that was beyond her powers she had to request one,

No wonder astute has a field day with you. Your comprehension levels are zero

I have given up with him. All I want is a debate. But a debate is the last thing some on here want.

 

[skybluetony176]

I think Tony should replace Andrew Marr and we have the Tony show - he seems to know more than every political and constitutional expert I’ve read up on in the last few days

Ironically you’re now agreeing with me and Brighton while saying we’ve got it wrong.

 

[Grendel]

Ironically you’re now agreeing with me and Brighton while saying we’ve got it wrong.

No Tony you genuinely lack comprehension and understanding

 

[Sick Boy]

Posts back in 2016 took seconds to find

Both them quotes are from personal views. No lies involved. They said what they felt. And I have continually said about what other peeple feel or what it does to them. You liked posts with lies in them.

That is the difference between the two of us.

Yeah, they’re on page 1 and 2, 2 only 2 clicks away.

Using your logic you’ve endorsed those views too.

 

[skybluetony176]

No Tony you genuinely lack comprehension and understanding

Says the man who disagrees with someone by agreeing with them, after disagreeing with them. Several times. Just need to check the time to see if it’s time for you to change your opinion again. 12 hour clock should be fine.

 

[skybluetony176]

Yeah, they’re on page 1 and 2, 2 only 2 clicks away.

Using your logic you’ve endorsed those views too.

Now now, he only wants a discussion.

 

[shmmeee]

Did you see any comeback from my comment?

So I can't understand what is going on? Who was it that has constantly had a go at me for saying about the consequences to people and districts in the remaining EU countries? And what was the link this same person supplied for us to read? Oh yes it was you totally contradicting everything you have been saying for ages.

Or shall we try Shmmeee saying that May did an amazing job? You and others agreed with him. Yet not one of you has even tried to say in any way what she did was amazing. Nobody has even tried to say what she did was even good.

Me childish? Me not understanding what is happening? You need to look at yourself and those who you frequently agree with.

She did a great job. She was given a shit sandwich and managed to get a deal that met the ERGs red lines and held her party together whilst not destroying the economy or the union.

Literally couldn’t have done better. As Johnson is nicely proving right now.

 

[shmmeee]

Are you looking at polls which just show voter intention and extrapolating that into a seat majority? As anything I’ve seen where it’s broken down by Seat makes it look a lot tighter.


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There are no models out there for this. Any seat level prediction is basically a guess at this point. Too many variables:
- What will Farage tell his acolytes to do?
- What will sensible Tories do?
- What will anti-Corbyn remainers in Con/Lab marginals do?
- Has Corbyn seen his bounce?
- What sort of campaigner is Johnson?
- How reliably will leave voters turn out?
- What’s the geographic split of each party?

Any of those could swing it one way or another.

 

[djr8369]

There are no models out there for this. Any seat level prediction is basically a guess at this point. Too many variables:
- What will Farage tell his acolytes to do?
- What will sensible Tories do?
- What will anti-Corbyn remainers in Con/Lab marginals do?
- Has Corbyn seen his bounce?
- What sort of campaigner is Johnson?
- How reliably will leave voters turn out?
- What’s the geographic split of each party?

Any of those could swing it one way or another.

Well there are models it’s the veracity of them that is at question. As I said above it’s going to be an extraordinarily complex election where many seats will be unpredictable.


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[shmmeee]

Well there are models it’s the veracity of them that is at question. As I said above it’s going to be an extraordinarily complex election where many seats will be unpredictable.


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I mean tested models. We’ve basically turned politics on its head. No one even knows if the 2017 models still apply, and they’ve barely been tested.

If I had to guess I’d say another hung parliament. The essential problem of a 50:50 split across the country hasn’t gone anywhere.

 

[Grendel]

Says the man who disagrees with someone by agreeing with them, after disagreeing with them. Several times. Just need to check the time to see if it’s time for you to change your opinion again. 12 hour clock should be fine.

You are out of your depth - you are like the annoying school boy at the back trying to gain attention with pointless and irritating remarks

You have nothing to add to this debate. Why don’t you go back to the playground and have a game of hopscotch?

 

[Grendel]

I mean tested models. We’ve basically turned politics on its head. No one even knows if the 2017 models still apply, and they’ve barely been tested.

If I had to guess I’d say another hung parliament. The essential problem of a 50:50 split across the country hasn’t gone anywhere.

Except one party may well attract 50% of the electorate

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Philip Hammond is the biggest snake going, Boris needs to sack him ASAP