Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (58 Viewers)

LastGarrison

Well-Known Member
This isn’t how stats work but fag packet maths so bare with me.

Last I saw roughly 1 in 1700 have the virus, so you’d need a gathering of more than 1700 to be likely to get infected. I doubt there were that many at most parties/protests. At the beach maybe but people tend to be static and distanced anyway at the beach. Not sure obviously not an epidemiologist but seems reasonable assumptions to me.
But that isn't how stats work in this case either is it because the chances of getting it outside are significantly lower (just heard something like 19x lower) than inside so if you apply your maths surely you would need to come into contact with 32,300 people rather than 1700? (I'm sure there's probably greater maths attached to it than that but you know what I mean!).
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
But that isn't how stats work in this case either is it because the chances of getting it outside are significantly lower (just heard something like 19x lower) than inside so if you apply your maths surely you would need to come into contact with 32,300 people rather than 1700? (I'm sure there's probably greater maths attached to it than that but you know what I mean!).

Theres two probabilities though, 1:1700 is the probability of someone having it where you are (not really but you know what I mean) the probability of that person infecting you is another. I’d imagine that’s also a function of how close to how many people you get.
 

LastGarrison

Well-Known Member
Theres two probabilities though, 1:1700 is the probability of someone having it where you are (not really but you know what I mean) the probability of that person infecting you is another. I’d imagine that’s also a function of how close to how many people you get.
So 5-aside Tuesday night up the AT7 then?
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
So 5-aside Tuesday night up the AT7 then?

5-a-side-Warm-Up.gif
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
These pictures show you exactly why our track and trace system is useless. If you test positive you're supposed to get a call and then tell them everyone you've been in contact with. Do all the people on that beach have the contact details of everyone they were close to so they can pass them on to track and trace if needed?

If only you could have some sort of app on your phone that would do it automatically. Why has nobody thought of that?

How would any track and trace dealt with the BLM protests in your view?
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
How would any track and trace dealt with the BLM protests in your view?

If it was up and running and I received information I’d come into contact with someone that was confirmed as having had Covid I wouldn’t go to a protest. Pretty simple really.

Same as I wouldn’t go to work or to the boozer or to the shop. All reliant on people not being helmets. But that’s where we are now with this quick relaxing of the lockdown. And we haven’t even got the track and trace setup anyway.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.

In to see my form next week, we're using half capacity and keeping them in bubbles through the day. Your boy will be OK.
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
In to see my form next week, we're using half capacity and keeping them in bubbles through the day. Your boy will be OK.

Bubbles of 8 and he’s not got his normal teacher but the Mrs has found out one his friends is in the bubble. Fair play to them they are prepared now and are firing out a lot of information.
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Bubbles of 8 and he’s not got his normal teacher but the Mrs has found out one his friends is in the bubble. Fair play to them they are prepared now and are firing out a lot of information.

Yeah, schools aren't known for high quality communication at the best of times. Sounds like it'll go OK from what you're saying
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.
I’m sure he’ll be fine pal. They will have him outside for some of the time which will help. The primaries have generally been good with their bubbles and reducing risk of unnecessary interactions, especially now groupings are much smaller
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
Texas and Florida close bars to combat COVID-19 spread

This part in particular caught my eye:

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress that increasingly younger adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s were getting infected because they have a "pent-up urge" to go out after weeks of quarantine.

But social distancing is almost impossible in bars, which are "emerging as fertile breeding grounds for the coronavirus," the Kaiser Health Network reported Friday. "They create a risky cocktail of tight quarters, young adults unbowed by the fear of illness and, in some instances, proprietors who don’t enforce crowd limits and social distancing rules."

“People almost don’t want to social-distance if they go to the bar,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told KHN. “They’re going to be drinking alcohol, which is a social lubricant. People will often be loud, and if they have forceful speech, that’s going to create more droplets.”
 

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
So are we saying that Europe is the source for the virus not China?


Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?
 

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?

To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?
We’ve not finished the first wave
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.
Agreed. In that respect opening up now is sane, although it's also our chance to squash it and we don't seem to want to head down that approach. We're throwing a load of services in just when it might get worse!
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?
Its starting to look like the risk indoors is far greater than outdoors. Look at the States, no real spike when the beaches were packed for spring break but places like Florida, Texas and Tennessee where bars have been opened are now seeing a surge in cases.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.
Don't worry, the government are on the case!
Face the front and pay attention when schools reopen, Gavin Williamson orders children
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Last Saturday 1295

Deaths 128

Today 898

Deaths 100

coming down

Someone shared with me what happened in the plague at Eyam and the second wave. They are writing a book. The population was 350-800 or so

Sep 1665- 6
Oct - 23
Nov - 5
Dec - 8
Jan 1666 - 4
Feb 5

2 in March, 7 in April and 2 in May and then 29 days with no one to return

June- 21
July -56
August - 78
September - 14
October - 18

then all over in November after 1 more death

Summer heat and carried by fleas rather than human to human

some people were the only person left in their house and had immunity linked with delta 52 which also gives immunity to HIV

Crazy stuff isn’t it?

249 of the village died

Amazing they decided to lockdown the village not to spread it
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure how our infection levels compare with US states as they released lockdown but this is grim

Edit. We're at 15.88 cases per million apparently on a rolling 7 day average, similar to France and the Netherlands.



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