Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (13 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

Not sure I subscribe to this.

Not sure if you went to the celebrations in town but I did and I would hazard a guess at that less than 5% of people were wearing masks and there was not only a mass concentration of people in and around the Lady Godiva statue there was also plenty of handshaking, hugging and chanting and singing yet no significant spike happened.

The same as the BLM protests and the "Save our Statues" numptys, although some were wearing masks the majority from the footage I have seen weren't and certainly at the bigger protests, in London for example, social distancing definitely was not happening and they were massively packed in!

Also, if it is so negligible why are so many people getting upset about going to the beach or playing 5-aside? Surely if it is negligible then you could open up outdoor sports pitches, have outdoor cinemas, gigs and even open up outdoor sports grounds on reduced capacities?

The majority of my mates working on building sites and I don't know a single one of them, or their families, who have had it. I have a handful of mates who work in offices and I know at least one of them who has had it.

If the evidence is pointing to indoor transmissions and having to be in the presence of someone for 15 minutes then a lot of these activities are relatively harmless.

This isn’t how stats work but fag packet maths so bare with me.

Last I saw roughly 1 in 1700 have the virus, so you’d need a gathering of more than 1700 to be likely to get infected. I doubt there were that many at most parties/protests. At the beach maybe but people tend to be static and distanced anyway at the beach. Not sure obviously not an epidemiologist but seems reasonable assumptions to me.

 

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[David O'Day]

This isn’t how stats work but fag packet maths so bare with me.

Last I saw roughly 1 in 1700 have the virus, so you’d need a gathering of more than 1700 to be likely to get infected. I doubt there were that many at most parties/protests. At the beach maybe but people tend to be static and distanced anyway at the beach. Not sure obviously not an epidemiologist but seems reasonable assumptions to me.

That is not how it works though. If 1 in 1700 have the virus it doesn't mean you need to have more than 1700 somewhere or you need to meet 1700 before can get the virus.

It's just chance, you could have 5 people at a gathering and 4 of them could have the virus.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It's probability though isn't it.

Yes could could meet one person and they've got it and be infected. You could meet 10,000 people who don't and not.

But the PROBABILITY of coming into contact with someone with the virus increases with the more people you meet. So if the chance of someone having the virus is 1 in 1700 and you meet 1700 people, the probability that you've been in contact with someone who has the virus is 1.

 

[PVA]

Just ridiculous

The sheer contempt they have for the general public is ridiculous

 

[shmmeee]

That is not how it works though. If 1 in 1700 have the virus it doesn't mean you need to have more than 1700 somewhere or you need to meet 1700 before can get the virus.

It's just chance, you could have 5 people at a gathering and 4 of them could have the virus.

Literally my first sentence “this isn’t how stats work”. But as a fag pocket calculation assuming even spread across the country it’s something Equally it works the other way, you could have ten thousand people with no cases of the virus.

For the beach you’d have to work out where people came from and their local case rate to get a proper likelihood, just pointing out that a couple of hundred people at a party/protest doesn’t mean the virus is spreading and therefore lack of a second wave after say VE Day doesn’t prove much.

 

[LastGarrison]

This isn’t how stats work but fag packet maths so bare with me.

Last I saw roughly 1 in 1700 have the virus, so you’d need a gathering of more than 1700 to be likely to get infected. I doubt there were that many at most parties/protests. At the beach maybe but people tend to be static and distanced anyway at the beach. Not sure obviously not an epidemiologist but seems reasonable assumptions to me.

But that isn't how stats work in this case either is it because the chances of getting it outside are significantly lower (just heard something like 19x lower) than inside so if you apply your maths surely you would need to come into contact with 32,300 people rather than 1700? (I'm sure there's probably greater maths attached to it than that but you know what I mean!).

 

[shmmeee]

But that isn't how stats work in this case either is it because the chances of getting it outside are significantly lower (just heard something like 19x lower) than inside so if you apply your maths surely you would need to come into contact with 32,300 people rather than 1700? (I'm sure there's probably greater maths attached to it than that but you know what I mean!).

Theres two probabilities though, 1:1700 is the probability of someone having it where you are (not really but you know what I mean) the probability of that person infecting you is another. I’d imagine that’s also a function of how close to how many people you get.

 

[LastGarrison]

Theres two probabilities though, 1:1700 is the probability of someone having it where you are (not really but you know what I mean) the probability of that person infecting you is another. I’d imagine that’s also a function of how close to how many people you get.

So 5-aside Tuesday night up the AT7 then?

 

[hill83]

Starting to rise then.

What pub we starting at next weekend?

 

[hill83]

So 5-aside Tuesday night up the AT7 then?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

1380
184 deaths

Going the other way and nowhere near France and Germany and Spain and Italy Before opening it all up

oh well

 

[Nick]

So 5-aside Tuesday night up the AT7 then?

Get it booked

 

[hill83]

My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.

 

[Grendel]

These pictures show you exactly why our track and trace system is useless. If you test positive you're supposed to get a call and then tell them everyone you've been in contact with. Do all the people on that beach have the contact details of everyone they were close to so they can pass them on to track and trace if needed?

If only you could have some sort of app on your phone that would do it automatically. Why has nobody thought of that?

How would any track and trace dealt with the BLM protests in your view?

 

[hill83]

How would any track and trace dealt with the BLM protests in your view?

If it was up and running and I received information I’d come into contact with someone that was confirmed as having had Covid I wouldn’t go to a protest. Pretty simple really.

Same as I wouldn’t go to work or to the boozer or to the shop. All reliant on people not being helmets. But that’s where we are now with this quick relaxing of the lockdown. And we haven’t even got the track and trace setup anyway.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.

In to see my form next week, we're using half capacity and keeping them in bubbles through the day. Your boy will be OK.

 

[hill83]

In to see my form next week, we're using half capacity and keeping them in bubbles through the day. Your boy will be OK.

Bubbles of 8 and he’s not got his normal teacher but the Mrs has found out one his friends is in the bubble. Fair play to them they are prepared now and are firing out a lot of information.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Bubbles of 8 and he’s not got his normal teacher but the Mrs has found out one his friends is in the bubble. Fair play to them they are prepared now and are firing out a lot of information.

Yeah, schools aren't known for high quality communication at the best of times. Sounds like it'll go OK from what you're saying

 

[Ian1779]

My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.

I’m sure he’ll be fine pal. They will have him outside for some of the time which will help. The primaries have generally been good with their bubbles and reducing risk of unnecessary interactions, especially now groupings are much smaller

 

[chiefdave]

Texas and Florida close bars to combat COVID-19 spread

This part in particular caught my eye:

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress that increasingly younger adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s were getting infected because they have a "pent-up urge" to go out after weeks of quarantine.

But social distancing is almost impossible in bars, which are "emerging as fertile breeding grounds for the coronavirus," the Kaiser Health Network reported Friday. "They create a risky cocktail of tight quarters, young adults unbowed by the fear of illness and, in some instances, proprietors who don’t enforce crowd limits and social distancing rules."

“People almost don’t want to social-distance if they go to the bar,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told KHN. “They’re going to be drinking alcohol, which is a social lubricant. People will often be loud, and if they have forceful speech, that’s going to create more droplets.”

 

[Saddlebrains]

Coronavirus: Spanish researchers say they've found coronavirus trace in March 2019 water sample



The plot thickens

 

[Ian1779]

Today’s batshit crazy....

 

[skybluetony176]

Coronavirus: Spanish researchers say they've found coronavirus trace in March 2019 water sample



The plot thickens

So are we saying that Europe is the source for the virus not China?

 

[Saddlebrains]

So are we saying that Europe is the source for the virus not China?

Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?

 

[wingy]

So are we saying that Europe is the source for the virus not China?

Definitely had something similar to this in June
Along with 5-6 colleagues.

 

[Ian1779]

Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?

To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Today’s batshit crazy....

They literally deserve everything coming to them seriously. It’s such a shame for those who want to reduce risk but those guys are ungovernable. How did it get to that state

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Potentially. Its all a bit weird. But again, another country, although not confirmed, stating the virus was in circulation way before it was first reported. Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?

We’ve not finished the first wave

 

[ajsccfc]

 

[Deleted member 5849]

To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.

Agreed. In that respect opening up now is sane, although it's also our chance to squash it and we don't seem to want to head down that approach. We're throwing a load of services in just when it might get worse!

 

[chiefdave]

So are we saying that Europe is the source for the virus not China?

Trump won't be happy if that turns out to be the case.

 

[chiefdave]

Massive test now. If we get to 2 weeks from today with no massive spike on cases, i think thats enough proof of what we've been experiencing as the 'second wave'. The BLM protests and VE day have shown no spike, but for me, the scenes at Bournemouth beach etc were quite bad, and if we can get past that kind of behaviour without a spike in cases, that would surely raise the question of any second spike being a pipe dream?

Its starting to look like the risk indoors is far greater than outdoors. Look at the States, no real spike when the beaches were packed for spring break but places like Florida, Texas and Tennessee where bars have been opened are now seeing a surge in cases.

 

[chiefdave]

To be honest I think the acid test will come when large scale indoor settings go live - schools will return in September, in full with no social distancing just in time for the warm weather to depart these shores.

Don't worry, the government are on the case!

Face the front and pay attention when schools reopen, Gavin Williamson orders children

 

[Nick]

My lads back in next week until end of term Monday and Tuesday. All they could offer. Think it will be good for him. I’m a bit nervous though.

Wouldn't worry, he will be fine. Will do him good

 

[David O'Day]

Robert Jenrick admits Israeli billionaire in donor row is family friend

Not saying he has done anything wrong but he doesn't half find himself in some situations.