Everyone still confident ? (6 Viewers)

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cc84cov

cc84cov

Well-Known Member
I’ve changed my mind
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Tommo1993

Tommo1993

Well-Known Member
It needs a perfect storm now. We’re staying up, for the first time this season I’ll say it.
 
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

Well-Known Member
Barnsley said:
With 8 games to go I backed us not to lose again this season, thought we’d draw with Reading, Boro, Yourselves, and Norwich, and win the rest. Now I fancy us to turn you over, due to us having had more rest.
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sylus

sylus

Well-Known Member
if you had told me on Weds, that we would get 3pts at rotherham and 3 against Barnsly and be 9 points clear, absolutely mental
 
P

play_in_skyblue_stripes

Well-Known Member
play_in_skyblue_stripes said:
Studying relegation targets was a regular thing of mine for many , many, many years when Coventry were in top flight.
So thought I would look at Rotherham list of games and come up with a view on what might happen overall it has ended up being a long post.

Rotherham fixtures are NOT that daunting in my view with so many in Yorkshire

Sat 20 March Bristol City A - Bristol very unpredictable
Fri 02 April Millwall A - Classic middle of table going nowhere club. OK never an easy place to play but 13 days for Rotherham covid
struck players to recover
Mon 05 April Wycombe H - Very likely win here for Rotherham and start of a big run of games solely in Yorkshire
Sat 10 April Huddersfield A - Tough game , likely both teams would be happy with a draw
Tue 13 April QPR H - Playing a team already it seems perhaps on their holiday. Likely win or draw
Sat 17 April Birmingham H - Vital game - too hard to predict
Wed 21 April Middlesboro H - Not an easy game but not that daunting. Its still a home midweek match which is an advantage
Sat 24 April Barnsley A - Tough game at 'Sky Reds' . Its a south Yorkshire Derby, a draw a definite possibility which would be ok for both
Tue 27 April Brentford A - Very tough game and likely defeat
Sat 01 May Blackburn H - Another game against a middle of table going nowhere club but can be Blackburn can be useful. Tricky to
predict but Rotherham wont be quaking in their boots for this one
Tue 04 May Luton A - Depends on Luton mentality on this one.
Sat 08 May Cardiff A - Not an easy place to go generally and a very tricky last game for Rotherham

Unknown Coventry H - Vital game but will fancy their chances big time if they can score first and will also be a midweek game

Looking at this schedule to me at least, highlights a lot of games but a massive chunk in Yorkshire (8 of 13) . I expect they would be happy to get a point or perhaps 2 in next two away games and than put massive effort from 5th April to 24th April. Coventry should aim to play them on Thu April 29 and move Huddersfield away a day back to to Sunday 02 as Rotherham in London on prior Tuesday night .

By avoiding playing Coventry when so many players were ill and not fit, may have been 'engineered' NOT to happen. Vast bulk of games now will be tough but after Easter and with international break beforehand there is big chance to for players to get fit and have 4 out of 5 games at home. If they squeeze Coventry game in that period it would be 5 out of 6.

My estimate for them is 19 points and that's 51 overall. Can the Sky Blues match 51?

A quick summary on race to match that predicted 51 points for Rotherham
Huddersfield - need 9 form 9 games - fairly easy statistically as they current average about a point a game over season
Nottm F - need 10 from 9 games - fairly easy statistically as they current average about a point a game over season
Derby - need 11 from 9 games - not too difficult
Coventry - need 13 from 10 games not too difficult
Birmingham - need 13 from 9 games - not easy but definitely do-able although they have a tough run in
Rotherham - need 19 from 13 games as discussed
Sheff W - need 22 from 10 games - very unlikely
Wycombe - need 25 from 9 games - no chance

I did say 53 would secure safety 52 might be enough but unless Birmingham and Rotherham crumble I still think it safety total will be higher than people think and in the 50's.
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We got to 51 and looks like Birmingham will too.
As someone said both Rotherham and Birmingham wont. So I was wrong and happy to be wrong.
 
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