Do you want to discuss boring politics? (148 Viewers)

[chiefdave]

working class support for Labour under Corbyn was huge

No idea if that is true or not but I did hear a polling expert make an interesting point this morning. He reckoned that a decent chunk of Corbyn voters were previously non-voters and their vote hasn't moved to another party, they've gone back to being non-voters.

Looking at Hartlepool as an example Conservative's got 15,529, Labour got 8,589. There was over 40K of the electorate who didn't bother to vote. Which task is easier, persuading under 7K of those to vote Labour or getting 3.5K Conservative voters to change to Labour? Hear a lot of talk of how to get people to change their vote but very little about engaging non-voters.

 

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[Liquid Gold]

I class myself as working class, come from parents who didn't own a property and had low paid jobs. Maybe as a home owner I don't fit into your criteria. A few years ago I was working night shifts stacking shelves to help myself be able to study and other personal circumstances. Many of the people in there fucking hated Corbyn. He was seen as unpatriotic, IRA sympathiser etc. He definitely cut through with the youth, singing his name at Glasto and all that stuff proved it. I would describe the working class support as polarised rather than huge.

Yeah polarised is probably fair. He was most likely the most popular and also the most unpopular in that demographic for decades.

I guess what I’m looking it is more ‘lower working class’. You can still be working class and own a home and have some investments but in the demographic that don’t have them, or a pension, his politics were very popular.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

but in the demographic that don’t have them, or a pension, his politics were very popular.

I'd argue much of the politics was popular, the man wasn't.

 

[PVA]

Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had the Brexit Party not split the vote. This is not a surprising result in any way.

 

[Ian1779]

I class myself as working class, come from parents who didn't own a property and had low paid jobs. Maybe as a home owner I don't fit into your criteria. A few years ago I was working night shifts stacking shelves to help myself be able to study and other personal circumstances. Many of the people in there fucking hated Corbyn. He was seen as unpatriotic, IRA sympathiser etc. He definitely cut through with the youth, singing his name at Glasto and all that stuff proved it. I would describe the working class support as polarised rather than huge.

There is a huge demographic of people that are not home owners and stuck renting with no prospect of escaping. When Labour came out with a policy of a huge affordable housing program in 2017 it will have resonated massively. That’s how I interpret Liquids point anyway.

 

[PVA]

I'd argue much of the politics was popular, the man wasn't.

Yes I'd say a lot of the working class loved his policies but hated the man. Which is fair enough.

 

[Ian1779]

Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had the Brexit Party not split the vote. This is not a surprising result in any way.

The Labour voters that defected never went back though.... possibly because the candidate shoehorned in was an ardent Remainer? Or was the lack of any kind of messaging other than ‘I’m not Corbyn by the way’

 

[samccov1987]

Looking at the early results I don’t think any of it is much of a shock. Labour haven’t shook off the hangover of Brexit and Corbin plus there’s a vaccine bounce for the tories and in times of crisis people want to support the government.

The bigger problem long term for Labour is people in the traditional working class constituencies feel taken for granted. Labour expect to win these seats with no effort put in.

As mentioned on a number of posts there’s a lot of people who identify as working class who actually have mortgages, middle class wages and decent pensions. Those voters aren’t into ‘woke’ causes and just want a stable economy, decent schools and health services.

It’s not rocket science but labour is too conflicted within the party to communicate to your average man on the street.

 

[PVA]

The Labour voters that defected never went back though.... possibly because the candidate shoehorned in was an ardent Remainer? Or was the lack of any kind of messaging other than ‘I’m not Corbyn by the way’

I think a lot of dyed in the wool lifelong Labour voters would find it very difficult to go Labour -> Tory.

But going Labour -> BXP -> Tory was probably a bit more palatable for them.

 

[Skybluefaz]

Yeah polarised is probably fair. He was most likely the most popular and also the most unpopular in that demographic for decades.

I guess what I’m looking it is more ‘lower working class’. You can still be working class and own a home and have some investments but in the demographic that don’t have them, or a pension, his politics were very popular.

He was far too easy a target for the press. The policies were good. Is there an irony that identity politics is pointed at as a Labour issue yet Corbyn was deconstructed on the basis of his perceived identity? I dunno, the whole thing is a fucking shambles really.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I'd argue much of the politics was popular, the man wasn't.

Which is fair. With hindsight we went for the wrong man. If the left thought their candidate had any chance of winning in 2015 it wouldn’t have been Corbyn. I think McDonnell would have been better, although he did have the same dodgy foreign connections I think he would have had a better grin on the PLP.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

There's a paradox, which is when a party seems at its strongest, often creates the cracks for weakness. Take Labour - Blair swept all before him by appealing to middle England, but that started the alienation felt by traditional northern Labour heartlands. Fast forward to when Blair was a busted flush, and that alienation is embedded.

Now? Johnson swept aside elements of his party to ensure Brexit happened, and the Conservative members have also shifted pretty right. Now atm the Prime Minister can paper over that because he, relatively, isn't. But whenever he (and maybe the one after) go, then you have a situation that could potentially be as the Labour Party find themselves - a bunch of party members out of step with what's needed, who push the party overly right, making them unappealing to the masses.

So, there's a current wave, but that could very much fail.

Umunna and co. probably had the right idea, but managed it poorly. Really, a Liberal Party well-run would have space to pick up Southern England, while trad Labour focussed on the North, and they ruled in coalition to moderate one another. Our system doesn't really allow for that so, would the respective leaders be brave enought o pool resources to focus in that way...?

I just don’t see the route back.

 

[Liquid Gold]

Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had the Brexit Party not split the vote. This is not a surprising result in any way.

None of those Brexit party people have gone back to Labour though, the Labour share has dropped from 2019 so it has to be asked if that performance was so poor what about the party is now less attractive.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Which is fair. With hindsight we went for the wrong man. If the left thought their candidate had any chance of winning in 2015 it wouldn’t have been Corbyn. I think McDonnell would have been better, although he did have the same dodgy foreign connections I think he would have had a better grin on the PLP.

McDonnell was better at fronting up to things, too.The prevarication over many issues did for Corbyn, too. Sometimes you need to take a position, and go for it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It is in the SNP's constitution to break up into its constituent parts once Independence is achieved. It is an amalgamation of many political parties.

If it happened there’s a decent chance we’d move up there.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Labour and Starmer has got some really difficult decisions to make. For too long, it’s pandered to the view of its membership rather than the wider electoral base.

If Starmer wants to ‘rebuild the red wall’ he needs to start by apologising for attempting to have a 2nd Brexit referendum and stop field pro-Remain candidates in overwhelmingly pro-Leave constituencies.

Like in Germany, I think the Greens will eventually grow to be the next big centre-left political force in the next 10-25 years.

There’s a realignment in British politics happening and Labour’s existence as a major political force is at risk.

Yeah, I heard someone quote earlier....’if Labour are no longer standing for the working man, who are they standing for’

As I mentioned previously, Brexit appeared to be tearing the Tories apart but what its done is pretty much torn Labour in two. The more metropolitan, southern remain base and the working class, northern, historical core. It needs to listen to the electorate, decide what it wants to stand for and then try to provide a clear message and policies that attracts enough of those two sides.

There might have to be some kind of coalition with Lib Dem’s who appear to be pretty irrelevant at the moment and only split the left vote further.

Whether all those factions can be merged together is the (very) tricky part !

ps someone also mentioned present government fatigue, which has been masked by Brexit but ultimately will return in coming years

 

[PVA]

None of those Brexit party people have gone back to Labour though, the Labour share has dropped from 2019 so it has to be asked if that performance was so poor what about the party is now less attractive.

Since 2005 the right (CON + UKIP or CON + BXP) has been growing more and more popular there. It's just a general trend that's been ongoing for a while and now with no BXP or UKIP to split the vote it was inevitable.



2005
LAB 18k / CON + UKIP 5k

2010
LAB 16k / CON + UKIP 13k

2015
LAB 14k / UKIP + CON 18k

2017
LAB 22k / CON + UKIP 19k

2019
LAB 15k / CON + BXP 22k

 

[Deleted member 5849]

As I mentioned previously, Brexit appeared to be tearing the Tories apart but what its done is pretty much torn Labour in two. The more metropolitan, southern remain base and the working class, northern, historical core. It needs to listen to the electorate, decide what it wants to stand for and then try to provide a clear message and policies that attracts enough of those two sides.

Problem is, Brexit has been to the detriment of a policy agenda - odd times. After all, Blair's government was outward looking, extremely pro European, and exceptionally popular!

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, I heard someone quote earlier....’if Labour are no longer standing for the working man, who are they standing for’

As I mentioned previously, Brexit appeared to be tearing the Tories apart but what its done is pretty much torn Labour in two. The more metropolitan, southern remain base and the working class, northern, historical core. It needs to listen to the electorate, decide what it wants to stand for and then try to provide a clear message and policies that attracts enough of those two sides.

There might have to be some kind of coalition with Lib Dem’s who appear to be pretty irrelevant at the moment and only split the left vote further.

Whether all those factions can be merged together is the (very) tricky part !

ps someone also mentioned present government fatigue, which has been masked by Brexit but ultimately will return in coming years

None of that. Just find a funny clown act and put him in a suit.

 

[Deleted member 4439]

Good thread:

That's been my thinking as well. In the 80s, apart from certain strangleholds like Merseyside, Militant remained at the fringes. Today, Momentum is truly embedded.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Hahaha lets all laugh at Labour losing Hartlepool, hilarious.....maybe they should have stuck with Corbyn

 

[Ian1779]

That's been my thinking as well. In the 80s, apart from certain strangleholds like Merseyside, Militant remained at the fringes. Today, Momentum is truly embedded.

It’s not the fault of Momentum, they often represent younger people trying to engage in politics. You need to look at the middle class London centrist politicians that think they know what is best for Northern working class people.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Hahaha lets all laugh at Labour losing Hartlepool, hilarious

I don’t find it funny that the country doesn’t have an effective opposition

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

I don’t find it funny that the country doesn’t have an effective opposition

Need a new direction then lol

 

[Skybluefaz]

Hahaha lets all laugh at Labour losing Hartlepool, hilarious.....maybe they should have stuck with Corbyn

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Need a new direction then lol

Another hot take

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

The one common denominator that causes all of these political ideologies to fail is human greed.

Which is the basis of most right wing economic policy - greed is good. Yet it's clearly the reason for societal failure.

What's needed is a system that takes on board the human nature for greed and limits its abilities to run the entire show. As it stands it's designed to increase its control.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Where does Starmer go from here?

I think he now has to change tack and with coming out of restrictions he needs to become more of an attack dog. I don't want him gone yet as I think he's a very capable person but it's showing personality is everything these days, competence is nothing.

 

[TomRad85]

Need a new direction then lol

I'm not sure, just watched Mandelson talking and I agree with him. I don't think it's a Starmer problem, although he's not an inspiring individual is he, let's be honest. Its the shadow of Corbyn. That bloke butchered the Labour party.

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

I think he now has to change tack and with coming out of restrictions he needs to become more of an attack dog. I don't want him gone yet as I think he's a very capable person but it's showing personality is everything these days, competence is nothing.

Needs to hold his pint higher than his haircut

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

How about starting, by trying to actually appeal to the electorate. That might be a good start!

Yep. Lie and just tell them whatever they want to hear. Judge the way the wind is blowing and follow that. It's what Johnson does every time.

 

[Ian1779]

I'm not sure, just watched Mandelson talking and I agree with him. I don't think it's a Starmer problem, although he's not an inspiring individual is he, let's be honest. Its the shadow of Corbyn. That bloke butchered the Labour party.

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Mandelson as usual is talking shite. This is on Starmer plain and simple. He’s had a year to get his vision across and he’s only come up with ‘not Corbyn’ which according to Mandelson should have been more than enough. The reality is he does not give people any reason to vote for him or his party at all.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No one will vote for a bunch of condescending arseholes who hate you and are constantly negative.

I agree totally about the second point. First one I think applies to both the two main political parties. Just maybe the Tories either hide it better or the poshness somehow means some people are more willing to put up with them being condescending than others.

 

[PVA]

I'm not sure, just watched Mandelson talking and I agree with him. I don't think it's a Starmer problem, although he's not an inspiring individual is he, let's be honest. Its the shadow of Corbyn. That bloke butchered the Labour party.

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Agreed, this isn't on Starmer. It's been coming since way before Starmer.

Vaccine bounce & Brexit are impossible to counter, it really doesn't matter who the LOTO is at the moment Johnson is just unbeatable.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Well if it’s elect a stand up comedian as leader we’re in good company. If that’s really all it is let’s get Frankie Boyle on the line

To be honest wouldn't you just love Boyle's style in PMQ's against Johnson! Would be constantly suspended for unparliamentary language. Corruption? Fine. Lying? Fair enough. Wasting public money? Naturally. Calling someone a c***. Too much.