Nick
Administrator
Tests going back up as well as cases?
Hospitalisations still look steady.
Considering beaches have been full, football grounds open etc, people in pubs etc and doing a lot more it was expected cases would rise.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (248 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
Tests going back up as well as cases?
Hospitalisations still look steady.
Considering beaches have been full, football grounds open etc, people in pubs etc and doing a lot more it was expected cases would rise.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
It’s to try and stop the association between variants and specific nationalities. When the English variant was in the news here my accent got a few worried looks, which made me speak ever louder
That’s a good point Nick. I’m not sure what many scientists, government and media expected. We were running at 2k-2.5k confirmed cases per day at the end of full lockdown, then since mid April people have been meeting up (nobody can tell me when it started pissing it down outside a boozer some didn’t pop back to someone’s house) and retail opened. Since mid May people indoors in boozers and up to six around someone’s house (if not more), more people back at shops, meeting up etc etc. After artificially suppressing the virus for six months through lockdowns there was always going to be a spike, this has then been accentuated by people piling back from India and then Portugal (champs league)
The question is whether whether hospitalisations are/will spike in the same way. I’d definitely expect a steady increase but with the high risk jabbed hopefully it won’t be a steep rise and those being admitted will be younger and therefore will be released sooner (which is what’s currently happening by all accounts). If good weather remains, hopefully more outdoor rather than indoor meeting which might help reduce transmission
For what it’s worth I don’t see 21 June going ahead as planned, however, there might be a half way house (further restrictions released but still requirements for face masks in certain situations, testing/vacco pass at large events etc, which wouldn’t be the end of the world)
Yeah, kids holidays and good weather would’ve impacted ability to deliver (less volunteers, people away etc). Hoping it can get back up over 500k total per day
yeah, numbers aren’t great, however, if there is a significant amount of surge testing in areas with high transmission/cases, you’d be expecting positivity rates to increase. Also, it would be interesting to see confirmed cases symptomatic v asymptomatic. I bet in the past they’d be heavily weighted in favour of symptomatic (why else get a test done ?!), now with surge testing, regular testing at home etc I wonder if that’s significantly changed
Nick
Administrator
Yep, looks like they are surge testing areas
www.bbc.com
Common sense really that cases are going to go up if they are targeting areas.
Again, numbers are easy to be manipulated.
We just need to learn to deal with it, the hospitals are hardly overloaded are they?
Covid: Which areas are being surge tested for variants?
People who live, work or travel in various parts of the UK are being urged to get a Covid test.
www.bbc.com
Common sense really that cases are going to go up if they are targeting areas.
Again, numbers are easy to be manipulated.
We just need to learn to deal with it, the hospitals are hardly overloaded are they?
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
It's hardly PC gone mad. East Asians have been attacked since the beginning of the pandemic. Some people are twats. 5G towers got burned down cos of some shit on Facebook remember.
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
It feels like it. When I found out that yesterday was the one year anniversary of our promotion to the Championship I was scratching my head. Felt like much longer. Weird times.
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
No flies on Hancock
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
But it's difficult for people of My Generation to get used to these changes.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Yep agreed
Nick
Administrator
Why the worry though? It was to be expected.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Probably because once lots of people have it lots more people will get it and it will become much much larger numbers potentially very quickly
If the hospital and death numbers stay low due to the vaccinations then to minimise those numbers as a best case then potentially something like 7m more people will be doubly or singularly vaccinated by suspending open all hours for a couple of hours
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Think the thing is though Pete that weve been told hat many times before and look. Goalposts move too often and that's why people are dead against another 'Ah only 2 more weeks'. I dont trust a word they say
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
That’s fair enough
Nick
Administrator
How long do we keep it like this though? It is inevitable that numbers are going to go up as things get back to normal.
School holidays last week, how many kids will have now been tested before going back to school?
We need to learn how to live with it rather than just hiding away from it every time there's a little spike.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
But the goalposts haven't been moved. Every date they've set for opening restrictions they've kept.
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
Yes, it was to be expected. The issue (as has been pointed out close to 100 times by now) is that cases going up is an early warning sign for hospitalisations/deaths going up. Now, we’re all hoping that doesn’t play out and the early signs suggest this to be the case. However, it is thought by people far more educated on this topic than you or I that it may be worthwhile gathering 2 more weeks’ worth of data to fully understand the impact. That, in turn, also gives us the opportunity to get a chunk of the main spreaders (under 30s) jabbed so as to slow down any future spreads.
I really don’t know why you keep going back to this.
Nick
Administrator
And if the data says no or another mutant strain appears?
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
we need to let it rip
We need to protect the vulnerable
we need to lockdown for 3 weeks to flatten the curve
we will be allowed to see family and friends at Christmas
we will vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable then we can get back to normality
we wont close schools as they aren't a vector
i could go on.
Changes all the fucking time people have had enough
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
If the data says no to what?
Stop getting caught up on “mutant strain” nonsense. It’s peddled by shite like the Daily Express who, in the past, have claimed that it would snow continuously for 40 days. Their track record for honesty is rather flimsy.
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
Amazingly, things also change over time. I love a government-bash as much as the next person but expecting them to have a perfectly crafted plan comprehensively covering the last 15-16 months just isn’t realistic.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Fair, but when even NHS trust bosses come out and say 'yep, vaccines working theres a slight uptick but nothing we wouldnt expect and barely any vaccinated people'......why are we even then discussing any delay to June 21st?
Nick
Administrator
If the data says no to opening up more.
Oh, I must have thought there's surge testing because of a variant going on in areas?
It will drag on and on until "Flu Season" and then every man and his dog will be dying of COVID again.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Completely agree and this is perhaps our way of working out how to live with it. If we could trust our leaders it would be easier
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
They’ve only had enough of being careful until a close friend or family member dies or is hideously Ill long term and then people change their thoughts
Quite a shock when low 50’s friend dies.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Because vaccine escape after one dose is higher than we thought. That was always the risk.
Thanks Shmmeee, I really like stuff like this (it’s the hidden geek in me) and agree that the modelling and whole lockdown, protecting high risk etc etc approach should’ve been far more innovative and considered more factors (rather than one size fits all). I’m not quite sure (it’s not clear from a quick scan) but if he’s suggesting that we should’ve focussed on vaccinating younger people to stop the spread, he’s forgetting one vital point. At the start of roll out they didn’t know whether the vaccines would stop transmission (and even if so, by how much). We still don’t really know. If we found that subsequently the virus (or a new variant) was still transmissible post vaccination and we hadn’t vaccinated those most at risk, it would’ve been carnage. That’s not taking into consideration potential lower vaccine take up by younger groups in early stages (providing to not be the case now but who knows earlier in the year)
At least we now have a chance that even if case numbers increase those most at risk will nearly all have been double jabbed so a significant majority should be protected from severe illness.
ps I would’ve liked to have seen the modellers assumptions clearly publisised along with any models released to the media
Nick
Administrator
Nope, before it was pointing out that I am stuck in my house not able to go to the gym or see my mates but people would stand about in Tesco breathing over each other or fighting over pasta.
I will be having pints tomorrow and at the weekend
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
If the data says no to opening up more then that means that, at this stage, the vaccine programme has not been sufficiently delivered so as to prevent high levels of hospitalisation and death. You’re getting dangerously close to a “rather let bodies pile high” situation with the track you’re going down.
Yes, there is a new dominant variant. Yes, there is surge testing taking place. What of it?
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
Isn't it all just maths? Summat like roughly 5% of the cases are being hospitalised. If the current trajectory holds then we will be headed for hospitals being overwhelmed again, then people won't be getting the cancer treatment etc that they need not to mention the NHS staff being pushed to the limits again. My 5% figure may well be off, I'm working off memory. Everyone wants to see the back of this shit now. It will be demoralising if June 21st restriction lifting don't happen. Johnson won't want to push it back because it is similar to the Xmas thing. He wants to be the hero. We all remember what happened after that delay.
hill83
Well-Known Member
Nope, before it was pointing out that I am stuck in my house not able to go to the gym or see my mates but people would stand about in Tesco breathing over each other or fighting over pasta.
I will be having pints tomorrow and at the weekend
Don’t take your phone