Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Cases are clearly rising exponentially aren’t they.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (128 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
I was talking about a couple over the past 2-3 months, in particular the forecast daily hospitalisations and inpatients (and in turn deaths). The quoting of thousands of hospitalisations per day and the build up of inpatients when the high risk had been vaccinated/a signifiant majority of the adult population have antibodies, just didn’t make sense to me. They’ve subsequently been revised down
Never like speaking too soon though as things can change very quickly so keeping fingers crossed it stays that way
Ps my language (‘horrifically’) after a few beers was probably a little OTT !
Yeah not sure which Impreial model you're referring to as the last one (I think it's the latest anyway) from May looks pretty much spot on too
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Yeah I meant in terms of lockdown, not general morality.
That’s new admissions isn’t it? It current occupancy available? @fernandopartridge probably better to ask, especially as you need to STFU and GBTW.
Yeah admissions is the key stat now mortality seems to be reduced by vaccination. The issue is if occupancy outstrips original capacity hospitals will start to havet o go into surge mode again which means other important services are reduced as the space and man power are used to deal with covid patients instead.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
The problem isn't so much the modelling its the way its reported. The modelling reports I've looked at are always heavily caveated around the unknowns.
In the case of the delta variant there was not knowing how it impacted the R and if those who got it were more or less likely to be seriously affected. That leads to a range of possible scenarios but the press seize on the worst case and it then becomes 'the modelling said hospitals would be overwhelmed in days' or similar.
And of course quite often the modelling says something along the lines of if we don't do x then y will happen. So for example they say if we don't delay removal of the final restrictions by 4 weeks there is a risk that hospitalisations could rise sharply. We delay the removal of restrictions, therefore hospitalisations don't rise sharply and people round on the modellers saying hospitalisations haven't risen there was no reason not to open up!
Absolutely, and it's happened a lot on here (not saying that's what Steve has done btw).
Yeah, the latest ones were revised down due to better effectiveness of jabs than they had previous assumed. Previous ones, when they were estimating increased transmissibility of Delta variant, had quoted hospitalisations being in the thousands per day (across all scenarios from memory), more than during second wave even though a majority have been jabbed, basically frightening numbers ! From memory earlier in the year, they were also continuing to assume minimal/no impact of vaccines on transmission, subsequently proven to be incorrect
It’s really hard searching/finding previous basic models online. This article (never heard of Salten News so only assuming it’s accurate !) appears to cover how some of the models changed
Coronavirus: SAGE advisers downgrade warnings on UK's third wave Covid death toll
Mathematical modellers who advise SAGE have dramatically downgraded their bleak predictions of more than 100,000 further Covid deaths within the next year and a third wave of the virus to rival the first two.Their total death toll projection – which is shown to the Prime Minister and has...
salten.cz
I appreciate it’s tricky for the modellers as they are using various assumptions and sometimes incomplete data, however, they have also been badly out on occasions (hence them subsequently updating/revising). I’d always prefer them to err on the side of caution by the way !
Agreed. Think we’ve discussed before the media reporting has not helped !
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Can you try asking him what his role is at the hospital? He won’t answer meOnly a nappy if your mouth constantly spews shit mate
baldy
Well-Known Member
Why are you so obsessed with what I do at the hospital? So odd
baldy
Well-Known Member
Only a nappy if your mouth constantly spews shit mate
Why are people so offended on here so easily? Such softies haha
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Cause you said it so we’d respect your opinion on medical matters. If you’re a Porter yeah right and if you’re a consultant in respiratory diseases that’s another point. I know you could just spout crap but by not replying it makes me think you’re talking bollox
Why are you being so sensitive? Thought you were a bit annoyed with people being sensitive on here
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Well you behave like a bit of a prick mate, that's probably it.
One of the blokes who accosted Chris Whitty the other day has lost his job. Serves him right.
Man apologises for accosting Prof Chris Whitty in park
Police are investigating a video which shows two men grabbing hold of England's chief medical officer.
www.bbc.co.uk
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
Cancel culture strikes againOne of the blokes who accosted Chris Whitty the other day has lost his job. Serves him right.
Man apologises for accosting Prof Chris Whitty in park
Police are investigating a video which shows two men grabbing hold of England's chief medical officer.www.bbc.co.uk
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Cancel culture? Oh! You mean consequence culture.
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
No Cancel culture, what really have them lads done wrong.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile back in the real world acting like a dick, publicly harassing a public figure, posting it on social media thinking you’re clever has consequences. The numpty did this for a reaction, he got one. The fact that he wasn’t smart enough to work out what that reaction was going to be in the wider context is on him. How could his now ex employer allow him to have contacts with clients who have been adversely effected (which is basically everyone to some degree) by Covid given he’s identified himself as a covidiot. What’s the employer supposed to do? Vet customers to see if they’ve lost a loved one to Covid before sending this idiot to meet them?
Actions have consequences, this is his, he’s earned it, he isn’t a victim. Chris Witty on the other hand is.
You think it's OK to grab hold of a member of the public in a park, not let go when they're clearly trying to break free, and absolutely terrify them in the process?
It's not crime of the century but it's pretty appalling behaviour and the guy deserved to face the consequences of his actions.
Don't be a dick and you won't get 'cancelled', pretty straightforward.
It's not crime of the century but it's pretty appalling behaviour and the guy deserved to face the consequences of his actions.
Don't be a dick and you won't get 'cancelled', pretty straightforward.
Marty
Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Who's trying to cancel who's opinion here?
(Well, one is an opinion the other is a learned position based on specialist education and training + years of experience.)
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
I'd sack him just because he's obviously a moron if he lets himself be filmed harassing a figure in the public eye atm
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
If his boss wants to sack him, then that's his bosses' lookout. He was an estate agent anyway so a nailed on wanker before the video was published.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Too much of a wanker to be an estate agent. A career in politics awaits.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
The irony being that you use that in reply to my post where I clearly and quite accurately explain why it isn’t “cancel culture” instead of someone’s post where they randomly use a buzz phrase that they clearly don’t understand otherwise they wouldn’t have used it in the first place. Baaa right back at ya.
Marty
Well-Known Member
It was more a case that you could literally copy and paste that response from anywhere. It's pure indoctrination.
Skybluefaz
Well-Known Member
Indoctrinated with what? Those lads failed to show a shred of common decency didn't they?
I'm not saying here anyone has the right to confront, that's the word needed here,not accoste assault haress etc.
But these lads did nothing more than attempt a pissed up conga around a stiff professional bloke who found it oppressive, invasive.
Overreaction here for me ,never appeared violence was on the agenda.
COV
Well-Known Member
Hang on, so a guy gets accosted in a park, the bloke that did it gets caught out and sacked as he filmed it, and people see that as indoctrination?
Sounds like consequences were dealt out and that’s it- why the rush to brush aside what he did? If it wasn’t that bad he wouldn’t have lost his job
Marty
Well-Known Member
Hang on, I think he's a bit of a prick for doing what he did, but the response stinks of typical virtue signalling condescending behaviour. Like I said, the response is a copy and paste job, we've heard it all before... Bah bah bah covidiot bah bah bah adversely affected bah bah bah papers please.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Indeed, it should be noted that his boss is also an estate agent