Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (201 Viewers)

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chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
Yeah, this isn't right at all. '90% efficacy' means your chances of getting the virus decrease by 90%. It doesn't mean that only 90% of people are safe and the other 10% get the virus anyway.
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Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?

How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?

There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
 
covmark

covmark

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
How will herd immunity work in practice? I understand the concept but doesn't it rely on those with the vaccine not getting covid and therefore not spreading it? How do you achieve herd immunity if everyone vaccinated can still get it and pass it on to others?
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Where did you come up with everyone vaccinated can catch it and pass it on to others?

Sent from my SM-G780F using Tapatalk
 
Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
Again the messaging is all over the place and trying to find reliable information is hard. You've got people saying if you're fully vaccinated you can get back to normal life and not worry but then you've got the likes of Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter saying, “I’m 67, vaxxed to the eyeballs but actually an-unvaxxed 30 year old still has lower risk of dying from COVID than I have.”
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I agree that messaging is all over the place, but that David bloke is actually correct with what he is saying. I'm not sure what the context is that it was paraphrased from though.
 
Grendel

Grendel

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?

How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?

There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
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There is loads of information?
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?

How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?

There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
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What has been clear with the hospitalisations is the age profile of those admitted has on average decreased, and the length of stay has also dropped. As Whitty said on Monday it is the risk of hospitalisation for a given individual dropping by at least 90%.

Concerns over what is going on aren’t unreasonable at all, I hope I haven’t tried to come across that way lately. But the question of what is deemed tolerable levels of death is one we need to have an up front discussion over which is obviously a lot harder if you have lost people or at a higher risk yourself. The elderly family we have are of the view they would rather have a better rest of their life instead of compromising things until the end. Others will see it differently of course.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
chiefdave said:
Not sure I follow. If the vaccine reduces hospitalisations by 90% then surely if you took 100 people who pre-vaccine would have been hospitalised 10 of them still would be post-vaccine?

How do you get any idea of how at risk you are? There's experts on TV saying those who are fully vaccinated are still at greater risk of death than younger people who aren't vaccinated is that not the case?

There's really needs to be accurate and reliable information out there that non-scientists can easily digest. How are we so far into this with so little information on government and PHE websites?
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See below. Brighton or someone properly qualified might correct me, but based on the table below where If an over 80 year old had a cumulative risk of hospitalisation of around 23, that would be reduced by 90%, i.e. to around 2.3. Though I think the 90% is aggregated across age groups so efficacy probably a bit lower than that. Still higher than some young people but a huge improvement.

SGTF mentioned here was the signifier of the difference between the wild type and Alpha variant:

1626448096071.png
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
See below. Brighton or someone properly qualified might correct me, but based on the table below where If an over 80 year old had a cumulative risk of hospitalisation of around 23, that would be reduced by 90%, i.e. to around 2.3. Though I think the 90% is aggregated across age groups so efficacy probably a bit lower than that. Still higher than some young people but a huge improvement.

SGTF mentioned here was the signifier of the difference between the wild type and Alpha variant:

View attachment 20987
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It means that for every 100 people who would be hospitalised otherwise, 90 now are not. If you already wouldn’t be hospitalised there is no benefit there to factor in however from the infection data, it’s something like 70 symptomatic cases prevented from every 100 if you’re fully jabbed. The uncertainty on that data is more up in the air though.
 
LastGarrison

LastGarrison

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Did she have any other symptoms LG? At least the vaccine blocked infection in your case :)
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She felt like she had a bit of a cold coming on and rundown but put that down to still recovering from Sunday night!!

Mainly the cough was the major symptom. She's doing OK at the moment and just feels a bit like she has the flu and the cough is still there but doesn't currently seem too bad.

I'm bored already on the first day and contemplated cutting the grass but decided to save it as a treat for tomorrow.
 
Skybluefaz

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
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I agree with this, stopped following it a couple of weeks ago. Although because of the level of infections they are thrown at you left, right and centre by the news outlets.
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
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Thank you genuinely but I find it interesting. I’m not anxious about it it makes me think and engage.
 
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C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
skybluetony176 said:
We’re in this mess right now for one reason only. Boris failed to put India on the red list soon enough. We could have been 4 weeks further into the vaccine program so he’s missed 2 opportunities to slow the spread of the delta variant. How many more people can be double dosed in 4 weeks?
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I agree that he should shoulder some of the blame if any that couldve been double jabbed have got ill and have said before that India could’ve gone on a bit earlier, however we had loads of people travelling to India that didn’t need to, they all rushed back from their ‘urgent’ trip on the threat of red list quarantine and then many didn’t self isolate on return - that’s not all Johnson’s fault. There are clear quarantine requirements for amber list countries that shouldn’t necessarily require thousands or tens of thousands being locked up in hotels.

Also, is there no blame for all the people that have been packing into bars, mixing on streets (see Wembley pics) etc. I include myself in that by the way. Or the high numbers of people who choose not to get vaccinated ? It’s no coincidence that there has been rapid spread in city locations (younger demographic, multi cultural so some higher vaccine reticence). I mentioned before I was in a vaccine centre 3-4 weeks ago and a third of appointment slots weren’t left empty ?!! In Birmingham, a lower vaccinated, now high transmission, area.

The fact is the decision is now to let this run rather than wait until autumn/winter and hope hospitals can deal with it. The ‘mess’ is a choice by Johnson’s and scientific advisors, even Ferguson said it is a calculated gamble worth taking. I know everything will be 100% Johnson’s fault in certain peoples eyes but that’s only if you ignore all of the above and remove all personal responsibility from the equation
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
I agree that he should shoulder some of the blame if any that couldve been double jabbed have got ill and have said before that India could’ve gone on a bit earlier, however we had loads of people travelling to India that didn’t need to, they all rushed back from their ‘urgent’ trip on the threat of red list quarantine and then many didn’t self isolate on return - that’s not all Johnson’s fault. There are clear quarantine requirements for amber list countries that shouldn’t necessarily require thousands or tens of thousands being locked up in hotels.

Also, is there no blame for all the people that have been packing into bars, mixing on streets (see Wembley pics) etc. I include myself in that by the way. Or the high numbers of people who choose not to get vaccinated ? It’s no coincidence that there has been rapid spread in city locations (younger demographic, multi cultural so some higher vaccine reticence). I mentioned before I was in a vaccine centre 3-4 weeks ago and a third of appointment slots weren’t left empty ?!! In Birmingham, a lower vaccinated, now high transmission, area.

The fact is the decision is now to let this run rather than wait until autumn/winter and hope hospitals can deal with it. The ‘mess’ is a choice by Johnson’s and scientific advisors, even Ferguson said it is a calculated gamble worth taking. I know everything will be 100% Johnson’s fault in certain peoples eyes but that’s only if you ignore all of the above and remove all personal responsibility from the equation
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The big point is it’s not the choice of the advisors. Advisors advise and governments govern. We don’t really know what the government scientists are advising Boris but there’s no shortage of equally qualified scientists who don’t answer to the government very publicly saying that the government are getting it wrong. Not least the developers of the Oxford vaccine.
 
COV

COV

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
I agree that he should shoulder some of the blame if any that couldve been double jabbed have got ill and have said before that India could’ve gone on a bit earlier, however we had loads of people travelling to India that didn’t need to, they all rushed back from their ‘urgent’ trip on the threat of red list quarantine and then many didn’t self isolate on return - that’s not all Johnson’s fault. There are clear quarantine requirements for amber list countries that shouldn’t necessarily require thousands or tens of thousands being locked up in hotels.

Also, is there no blame for all the people that have been packing into bars, mixing on streets (see Wembley pics) etc. I include myself in that by the way. Or the high numbers of people who choose not to get vaccinated ? It’s no coincidence that there has been rapid spread in city locations (younger demographic, multi cultural so some higher vaccine reticence). I mentioned before I was in a vaccine centre 3-4 weeks ago and a third of appointment slots weren’t left empty ?!! In Birmingham, a lower vaccinated, now high transmission, area.

The fact is the decision is now to let this run rather than wait until autumn/winter and hope hospitals can deal with it. The ‘mess’ is a choice by Johnson’s and scientific advisors, even Ferguson said it is a calculated gamble worth taking. I know everything will be 100% Johnson’s fault in certain peoples eyes but that’s only if you ignore all of the above and remove all personal responsibility from the equation
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Don’t think you can say the advisors are at fault one bit, their job is to advise, not make decisions, that’s a complete cop out tbf

But I do agree on personal responsibility. But then you could even argue that was partly due to a lack of clarity from up above on what the hell to do
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
COV said:
Don’t think you can say the advisors are at fault one bit, their job is to advise, not make decisions, that’s a complete cop out tbf

But I do agree on personal responsibility. But then you could even argue that was partly due to a lack of clarity from up above on what the hell to do
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Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
 
COV

COV

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
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I think it is the right decision

Was just saying you can’t blame advisors for what happened before
 
hill83

hill83

Well-Known Member
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
I'm not sure checking those figures every day are doing you any good mate. Maybe it would make you feel a bit better if you ignored it for a while? Not trying to be patronising or anything, but I personally felt a lot better when I stopped paying attention to it so much.
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I agree. It's been infections as the leading headlines the last few weeks until the other day when it was deaths again.
I like to keep aware of what's going on but try to avoid reading all the bollocks about it and feel much better for it.
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
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Again. Advisors advise. It’s Boris’ plan, you don’t even know whether he’s following all of the advice, some of the advice or none of the advice.
 
skybluetony176

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
COV said:
Saw something about this- we’re putting counties into the green list but they’re putting us on the red list 😁
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The nut case that runs Hungary has apparently put the U.K. on their red list. This is the nut case who’s supposed to make Boris look competent.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
CCFCSteve said:
Not saying theyre at fault at all, just that I think the current plan of letting it run has been decided by Johnson and the scientific advisors rather than hold the wave back for autumn/winter. Only time will tell if it’s the right decision
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My main problem is Johnson cherry picks. Get it done with now? Great! But be cautious, keep some measures in place? Ah...

And that's a political decision, not an economic, nor even a social one, as the measures suggested weren't exactly onerous.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Sky Blue Pete said:
Some international perspective is interesting but I suppose those that want to will just see this as us being great

www.nature.com

Why England’s COVID ‘freedom day’ alarms researchers

Easing restrictions amid rising infections raises the risk of new variants emerging and risks the health of those who are not vaccinated, say researchers around the world.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
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It's such a priveleged first world view isn't it? They're talking about the UK that has fully vaccinated nearly 70% of its adult population. No word at all about the likelihood of epidemic and prospect of variants in the unprotected global South.

The idea that all restrictions being dropped = immediate return to pre Covid is obvious nonsense. Changes like working from home are now, standard practice. Many people will still wear masks. Many people will moderate their behaviour without the threat of criminal sanctions. Businesses are still set to be maintaining other measures. Criminalising everyday behaviour is not the only way to try and manage a pandemic. Despite 17 months of it we've still had new variants and growing cases.

The UK has vaccinated most people who represented most serious illness and death, I'm unsure what else can be done at this point.

Some think that the government is aiming to achieve ‘herd immunity’ in the population through a mix of natural infection and vaccination
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I'm fairly sure that last year that was discussed as being the only way to achieve HI, what is the alternative?

Delta is taking hold in Europe, I would suggest it is quite likely that other European countries will open up when they get to similar vaccination levels despite rising cases as well.
 
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Evo1883

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
Me and the missus have loads of kits here at home , loads from my work and school and we thought we'd try diet Pepsi to see if we would get a positive result.. result = positive 😬

20210717_082420.jpg

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Sick Boy

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
Sky Blue Pete said:
Some international perspective is interesting but I suppose those that want to will just see this as us being great

www.nature.com

Why England’s COVID ‘freedom day’ alarms researchers

Easing restrictions amid rising infections raises the risk of new variants emerging and risks the health of those who are not vaccinated, say researchers around the world.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
Click to expand...
Certain regions here are likely to have restrictions increased again due to increases in cases in them.
 
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