USSR invades Ukraine. (6 Viewers)

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

When Putin starts shelling nuclear facilities the stakes increase massively.

It's interesting to read that Canada has been quoted along the lines of 'nothing should be off the table', particularly in terms of no fly zones.

I'm still not sure that we should intervene militarily, but I think the point may have come where we stop saying that we definitely won't. One of the big mistakes by NATO may have been the absolute insistence that we wouldn't get involved if Ukraine was invaded, that was like leaving an open door.

I can't see how it could hurt now to put a bit of ambiguity in our approach.

What if we played Putin's game, started to build large forces in and around Ukraine, whilst publicly saying that there was no intention to attack. I doubt he'd take us at our word, so he'd need to stretch his forces further. That might bring some respite for Ukraine.

A risky strategy, I know, but so is firing at nuclear power plants in the centre of Europe.

Off topic, but this is another reason why I'm not a fan of increasing nuclear powerplants. People say that they're now much safer than those of the past (though IMO it's a cumulative probability that something would eventually go wrong) but then you've got to factor in complete lunatics trying to sabotage them. I'm sure a few weeks ago had I written that I'd have been laughed at and told it would never happen...

 

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[Otis]

Off topic, but this is another reason why I'm not a fan of increasing nuclear powerplants. People say that they're now much safer than those of the past (though IMO it's a cumulative probability that something would eventually go wrong) but then you've got to factor in complete lunatics trying to sabotage them. I'm sure a few weeks ago had I written that I'd have been laughed at and told it would never happen...

Yup, I am the same.

Leaks, disposal, accidents, attacks. All make me uncomfortable.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Yup, I am the same.

Leaks, disposal, accidents, attacks. All make me uncomfortable.

I always think of it like deaths on transport. So pedestrians bikes cars buses trains aeroplanes

It feels like aeroplanes are really dangerous but it’s the safest form of travel.

I think nuclear would be the same. It’s incredibly safe

 

[SBT]

While obviously Very Bad, I think it’s worth pausing a moment to acknowledge that bombing a nuclear reactor isn’t apparently going to automatically turn them into nuclear bombs. We like to think of them as glowing green balls of energy inside a cooling tower, ready to detonate, but nuclear reactors are designed to withstand all kinds of disasters (take Fukushima, for example). They don’t explode Chernobyl-style if someone walks around with an open flame, or even if the facility takes a direct hit from a bomb. Which is why countries like the US and Israel have bombed nuclear facilities before in places like Iraq.

I didn’t know much about this until recently but this is an interesting thread on it all:

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I am still hopeful those around him will think he's losing the plot and is on course for nuclear destruction, so will somehow topple him.

That for me is pretty much the only way this doesn't end badly. He has to be removed from within. But this in itself is a danger because there are probably plenty of similar minded people waiting in the wings to take over. Maybe that power vacuum would mean they'd be more concentrating on the internal power struggle rather than attacking others for a bit but it might only kick the can down the road. Even if he got toppled and the people rose up to demand a proper democracy you've almost certainly then got Russia in a civil war for who knows how long.

Then there's the long-term problem of China to consider...

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I always think of it like deaths on transport. So pedestrians bikes cars buses trains aeroplanes

It feels like aeroplanes are really dangerous but it’s the safest form of travel.

I think nuclear would be the same. It’s incredibly safe

I agree with the thinking. But the problem is that when it does happen chances are everyone gets killed. And the operative word there is when. Not if. And the more nuclear plants you build the more chance that has of happening sooner.

Also, an aircrash is limited to the immediate crashsite. Nuclear meltdowns not only destroy a big area then kill people through radiation poisoning in a wider radius, that fallout will get taken on the wind and potentially spread thousands of miles and affect millions of people. In an absolute worst case scenario there's potential nuclear winter.

The there's the spent fuel. We've already got an inevitable catastrophe waiting for us from old fuel encased in concrete dumped in the sea. That concrete will fail long before the radioactivity of the fuel inside is safe.

 

[skybluetony176]

my worry how does this all end, except in either
a) Putins gang being overthrown or
b) complete disaster for the world

I cant see a) happening, so really scares me shitless

There’s a few good signs that A is more likely. Such as



Putin without doubt has a cult like following within his own party and military but he also seems to have enemies within. A palace coup is a possibility.

 

[skybluetony176]

Some of the Russian military hardware losses. Unverified of course.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

The Kyiv Independent keeps a running total on it



Difficult to verify under the circumstances but Putin is without doubt taking a big hit on military hardware. Military hardware they don’t have the resources to replace. Especially if the sanctions last past the end of hostilities.

 

[chiefdave]

Yuriy Vernydub: Sheriff Tiraspol manager 'not afraid' as he leaves Europa League side to fight in Ukraine

Six months ago Yuriy Vernydub was winning at Real Madrid, one week ago he was managing in the Europa League. Now, he is in Ukraine and ready to fight.

www.bbc.co.uk

There was a journalist on BBC News last night saying similar. He's now armed and ready to fight and has no issue with killing Russian invaders. These are just regular people fighting for their country.

Got to be honest, don't know if I could do it. We'd all like to say we would but in reality I'd probably be looking for the fastest route out.

 

[PVA]

A note on the size of Russia's army.

Earlier in the thread it was discussed how Russia has 900,000 troops, but this is TOTAL military servicemen across all branches.

They have about 250,000 actual ground troops apparently, 65% of which have been committed to the invasion already.

A lot of which are conscripts.

Basically it's a bit of a ragtag outfit and not the all conquering super army that many have the impression of.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Got to be honest, don't know if I could do it. We'd all like to say we would but in reality I'd probably be looking for the fastest route out.

If I did stay, I'd be the one trying to work out how to take the safety catch off, while I got a bullet through my head!

 

[Deleted member 9744]

That for me is pretty much the only way this doesn't end badly. He has to be removed from within. But this in itself is a danger because there are probably plenty of similar minded people waiting in the wings to take over. Maybe that power vacuum would mean they'd be more concentrating on the internal power struggle rather than attacking others for a bit but it might only kick the can down the road. Even if he got toppled and the people rose up to demand a proper democracy you've almost certainly then got Russia in a civil war for who knows how long.

Then there's the long-term problem of China to consider...

I think it is unrealistic to assume this is all down to one madman. He wouldn't be where he was as leader if he was alone on this. We overplay the significance of individuals in history in my view. Circumstances create the environment for that person to be in charge.

 

[David O'Day]

A note on the size of Russia's army.

Earlier in the thread it was discussed how Russia has 900,000 troops, but this is TOTAL military servicemen across all branches.

They have about 250,000 actual ground troops apparently, 65% of which have been committed to the invasion already.

A lot of which are conscripts.

Basically it's a bit of a ragtag outfit and not the all conquering super army that many have the impression of.

you'll be told off in a minute

 

[shmmeee]

If I did stay, I'd be the one trying to work out how to take the safety catch off, while I got a bullet through my head!

I’d like to think I’d be useful in comms, with a background in electronic and software engineering. But in reality unless they want a data pipeline building I’m not much use.

There’s a reason I always play sniper in war games…

 

[Deleted member 9744]

It’s hard to believe that he’s just going to stop at Ukraine, sadly.

In the long term I agree, but I am not sure they have the capacity to continue after Ukraine for a while. Opening up multi fronts isn't usually a good strategy. Assuming Ukraine falls, give it a few years though...

 

[Liquid Gold]

I'd be gone. I don't think there is an appetite to fight like the Ukrainians have.

I don't think this is some alt-right beta male bullshit either. What's the point in fighting for a country whose elites and voting population actively treat me like shit and try to make my life worse.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

There was a journalist on BBC News last night saying similar. He's now armed and ready to fight and has no issue with killing Russian invaders. These are just regular people fighting for their country.

Got to be honest, don't know if I could do it. We'd all like to say we would but in reality I'd probably be looking for the fastest route out.

I think that's nature. To want to survive.

My main thing would be my family and what is best for them. Am I of more use to them if I escape with them?

I know there will be certain elements on here who will call this next statement unpatriotic, but my last concern would be fighting for the country. It's far from perfect and the past has shown that the ordinary people sent to fight are often left to rot afterwards. I guess it'd be more about fighting off something worse. If there was no way out, the fight instinct would kick in.

 

[duffer]

I always think of it like deaths on transport. So pedestrians bikes cars buses trains aeroplanes

It feels like aeroplanes are really dangerous but it’s the safest form of travel.

I think nuclear would be the same. It’s incredibly safe

I'd politely differ here, just going on the evidence from previous accidents (not least of which was Chernobyl, which bad as it was, was very nearly much, much worse).

Regardless of safety and environmental concerns, there's also a strong commercial argument that says investing in renewables is actually cheaper and more effective.

Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report

Nuclear power is losing ground to renewables in terms of both cost and capacity as its reactors are increasingly seen as less economical and slower to reverse carbon emissions, an industry report said.

www.reuters.com

 

[duffer]

If I did stay, I'd be the one trying to work out how to take the safety catch off, while I got a bullet through my head!

I'd probably get the safety catch off just before shooting my toes off.

If they wanted a row on the internet instead though, our elite SBT forces could tear 'em a new one double quick.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I'd be gone. I don't think there is an appetite to fight like the Ukrainians have.

I don't think this is some alt-right beta male bullshit either. What's the point in fighting for a country whose elites and voting population actively treat me like shit and try to make my life worse.

It's still home though. There's still family, friends, loved ones to protect.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I think it is unrealistic to assume this is all down to one madman. He wouldn't be where he was as leader if he was alone on this. We overplay the significance of individuals in history in my view. Circumstances create the environment for that person to be in charge.

You may be right but in many ways I find that scarier.

It means there's a much bigger problem to solve and many others wholly support these actions. Someone already posted a link about the guy that is Putin's Himmler. Terrifying.

And chances are those type of people exist everywhere, including here, but haven't had the opportunity to take total control. There are some here, both on the left and right that I seriously wonder what they might be capable of if they had the same sort of control of parliament and information. Thanfully he's a lazy buffoon, but Boris and his cronies has been trying to massively undermine free speech and press and have openly flouted the rule of law. They clearly have little respect or care for the ordinary person and just seem them as pawns in their desire for power. He's even mentioned in private about wanting to be 'World King'. JRM would have the same opinion of the British Empire as Putin does about the USSR.

Thankfully we have a long standing democracy but given the amount of disinformation that is flying around, and the amount of people that are willing to believe it, we shouldn't think we're perpetually immune from this.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I'd probably get the safety catch off just before shooting my toes off.

If they wanted a row on the internet instead though, our elite SBT forces could tear 'em a new one double quick.

Have to watch out for Grendel, the internal mercenary and saboteur.

 

[Liquid Gold]

It's still home though. There's still family, friends, loved ones to protect.

As long as Nick's server works I'm sound.

 

[tisza]

In the long term I agree, but I am not sure they have the capacity to continue after Ukraine for a while. Opening up multi fronts isn't usually a good strategy. Assuming Ukraine falls, give it a few years though...

Not just that. there seem to be some obvious "old" flaws.
Logistics and maintenance seem to be issues and that's with a country they border.
Already know they train with their equipment about 60 % less timewise than NATO forces do. But kit breaking down and not being able to be repaired quickly seems to be a theme.
Usual stories of soldiers not having enough food or expired ration packs.

 

[Harry Krishner]

The Kyiv Independent keeps a running total on it



Difficult to verify under the circumstances but Putin is without doubt taking a big hit on military hardware. Military hardware they don’t have the resources to replace. Especially if the sanctions last past the end of hostilities.

Fuck that's a lot even if you divide it by 2.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I'd politely differ here, just going on the evidence from previous accidents (not least of which was Chernobyl, which bad as it was, was very nearly much, much worse).

Regardless of safety and environmental concerns, there's also a strong commercial argument that says investing in renewables is actually cheaper and more effective.

Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report

Nuclear power is losing ground to renewables in terms of both cost and capacity as its reactors are increasingly seen as less economical and slower to reverse carbon emissions, an industry report said.

www.reuters.com

Yeah renewables trumps all the others for me too

 

[Flying Fokker]

Found this. I‘m still of the view that this will escalate and do not want it of course. Has Anyone come across ‘Objective’ websites?

The gulf between East and West is more dangerous than Cuba and we have yet to see America and China join in. is that at all avoidable? The US must be on the hotline to Putin most of the day atm.

Russia-Ukraine war: 7 Must-Read books to understand the conflict and its History better

www.republicworld.com

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Yeah renewables trumps all the others for me too

I do not want a renewable Trump, or even a cryogenically frozen one thankyou very much!

 

[Nick]

China apparently not going to show Premier League games in case there's anything mentioning Ukraine.

 

[Otis]

As Putin now has over 80% of his forces in Ukraine, wouldn't now be a good time for a few terrorist attacks on Russia soil?

Not advocating it of course , but maybe a few Chechen resistance groups could pop over for a day trip.

 

[shmmeee]

China apparently not going to show Premier League games in case there's anything mentioning Ukraine.

Watched a collection of Chinese citizens taking about the war, they seem to be more pro Russia than the Russians!

 

[duffer]

I do not want a renewable Trump, or even a cryogenically frozen one thankyou very much!

In fairness the half-life on his fake tan could probably run a small power station for a few decades.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Ukraine sanctions: UK dockers refuse tanker of Russian gas

A union urges the government to clarify sanctions rules to include vessels carrying Russian cargo.

www.bbc.co.uk

....There is power in a Union

 

[fernandopartridge]

I personally think the performative banning of anything Russian is silly and will ultimately be counter productive. EA Sports taking Russian teams out of their games, I mean what is the point of this? The even more ridiculous one is the Compare the Meerkat thing.

The country has lost its fucking mind, completely irrational. The internet has made internet clout the sole objective of everything.

 

[PVA]